General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Justin Herbert is putting up better statistical performances than Patrick Mahomes over the last few weeks and and as a whole on the season, yet he is much cheaper on this slate. With Ekeler banged up, I think we see the Chargers lean on the skills of Herbert. He has a slew of weapons at each position and the ability to scramble. These things together makes him a viable captain tonight.
Keenan Allen should be used heavily tonight with a banged up Chargers’ offensive line. If the Chiefs’ rush starts getting after Herbert, look for them to getting the ball into Allen’s hands quickly. Allen has been a target monster over the last month and I can’t see that not being the case again in Week 15
Austin Ekeler worries me a bit with the ankle issue. I don’t think you’ll need to have a ton of him to be even with the field and that’s the stance I would take. Much like the Dalvin Cook situation last week, Ekeler could go off at low ownership. That said, an ankle injury is much worse for a running back than an upper body injury. So in the end, he won’t be a big part of my captain pool, but I think he’s worth a flier few lineups.
Travis Kelce’s skill set is conducive to the way the Chargers defense schemes to stop opposing offenses, especially the Chiefs. The Chargers have usually been trying to avoid getting bit by big plays and making teams beat them with sustained drives down the field. I can see Kelce getting a bunch of opportunities over the middle. In their first meeting he went 7-100. If he can find the end zone once or even twice tonight he can land in the optimal captain.
Patrick Mahomes can always land as the optimal captain, especially with the amount of value on this slate. Obviously you’ll need to roster multiple pass-catchers with Mahomes at captain because it means he has spread the ball around to a few different pass-catchers.
Tyreek Hill will be an underweight option for me tonight. He’s the type of option the Chargers try to limit. They were successful in holding him to a low total in their first meeting as well. Hill only has an expected TD rate over the last month of .08, which is a product of his targets being more short, before the sticks type routes. Like Ekeler, Hill will be a captain in a few lineups, but I’m more confident in Kelce, Allen, Herbert, and Mahomes
Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes for a solid contrarian captain. When you think Chiefs, the big three come to mind obviously, but the Chargers are a run-funnel and Edwards-Helaire has been given enough touches in his return for me to have confidence in a game script where the Chiefs get him the ball, especially at the goal line. I would make sure to queue up Chargers receivers in lineups with CEH as they’ll probably be playing catch up if he has a big game.
Flex
The Chargers backup running backs are intriguing. Pay attention to if both Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley are active tonight. They split the workload when Ekeler went down last week and I’d imagine it would be a pretty even split again. Rotating them through lineups in the event Ekeler is an “active but not playing” case or gets re-injured is definitely a viable strategy.
Darrell Williams has been the dedicated pass-catcher of the Chiefs’ offense. I like rostering him in lineups with Mahomes at captain and in otherwise projected shootouts. Williams will get the if the Chiefs have to throw the ball a ton. Williams and Edwards-Helaire split the snaps pretty evenly, so I wouldn’t fault anyone for going with Williams in a few captain lineups, but I think CEH has the touchdown upside.
Byron Pringle leads all receivers not named Tyreek Hill in snap share. He’s my favorite tertiary piece in this Chiefs’ offense because I think the public still places him third behind both Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman I’ll have a bit of Robinson and Hardman as well. Robinson will rely on touchdowns so he’ll take away from the Kelce ceiling game, but the other two can get there on receptions and yards.
Mike Williams hasn’t been as dominant to close out the year as he was to start. At his price I think he’s a viable flex play, but I’m not sure his target share over the last few weeks will allow him to hit his ceiling projection. Additionally, I think the trouble along the offensive line will cause Herbert to throw the ball short and intermediate more than deep.
Jaylen Guyton and Josh Palmer will be the secondary pieces for the Chargers, however with both Allen and Williams in the lineup, we should see more Guyton than Palmer. Palmer should return to his 30% snap share which will make him a candidate to be over-rostered. Guyton will remain at his 50% snap share level. I actually prefer Guyton here though Palmer is probably a better points per snap option.
Jared Cook and Donald Parham have actually been pretty even in terms of targets over the last month so I like rotating both through lineups. There are a slew of other players on each side that will see a few snaps, but guys like Noah Gray, Stephen Anderson, and Derrick Gore won’t see meaningful playing time in this game.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Keenan Allen
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Byron Pringle
Captain: Justin Herbert
Flex: Keenan Allen, Jaylen Guyton, Tyreek Hill
Captain: Travis Kelce
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Keenan Allen, Jared Cook
Captain: Patrick Mahomes
Flex: Travis Kelce, Byron Pringle, Mike Williams
Captain: Clyde Edwards Helaire
Flex: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Donald Parham
