General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Josh Allen is the classic quarterback captain given that he runs the football himself. Over the course of the season he has added an average of 5.2 fantasy points to his bottom line with just rushing production. He can be stacked with multiple receivers, or the game script is possible that he only brings one pass-catcher with him while running for multiple touchdowns.
Stefon Diggs has been fairly muted in terms of ceiling games outside of a 33 fantasy point performance against the Jets two weeks ago. Marshon Lattimore has been solid this season including last week against Devonta Smith, a receiver whose style resembles Diggs somewhat. Of course the WR1 can land in the optimal captain so I had to list him here, but he is going to be more of a flex play or fade for me given his matchup and Josh Allen’s propensity to spread the ball around.
Mark Ingram and Tony Jones are both in play at the captain position. Obviously Jones depends on Mark Ingram’s status. Ingram trails only Adam Trautman in targets since Siemian took over at quarterback. I don’t know how much they will get going in the run game as Trey Edmunds returns. If Ingram sits, Jones, as well as Taysom Hill, will hand much of the rushing duties. At his price he’s worth a punt captain on DraftKings
Tre’Quan Smith has been targeted heavily by Siemian through three weeks with an average depth of target of 9.9. It’s possible that if all the higher priced players hit in this game, Smith is required in the optimal captain to get a balanced lineup. He makes more sense if Ingram plays, which diminishes the chance Jones is the optimal captain.
Flex
Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and Matt Breida are going to be difficult to handicap on this slate. If they are all active, I don’t love having much exposure to any of them. Josh Allen cuts into the rushing production and touchdown expectation too much. If Zack Moss is inactive, as some expect, I like rotating both through lineups a bit. Breida works with Josh Allen lineups because he has been playing more on obvious passing downs.
Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders have pretty clear paths to the optimal lineup. Beasley makes more sense as a one-off because his stat line usually consists of volume receptions. In Saints heavy lineups, I like bringing it back with Cole Beasley as the lone or one of two Bills as he could see a slew of targets if the Bills get behind. Sanders should be the exact opposite, in lineups projecting the Bills to score a bunch of points as he will probably need a long touchdown to get there
Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis come into play more so when you are projecting a big game for Josh Allen as he’ll most likely be dishing out touchdowns to ancillary pieces in that instance. Both Knox and Davis will require touchdown passes to land in the optimal lineup for sure.
Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, and Kenny Stills are all viable, but not to the degree the Bills ancillary pieces are viable. Callaway has a market share of air yards of 25% over the last three weeks. I think it’s smart to have Callaway and Siemian paired together in most lineups as Callaway gets there on long touchdowns which obviously directly benefit Siemian. Harris and Stills are rotational pieces for mass multi-entering.
Juwan Johnson is in play here with Trautman out. Trautman led the team in targets with Trevor Siemian in the lineup. Those targets don’t always translate one for one, obviously, but he is squarely in play.
There are a bit more “dart throw” type players in this game like Nick Vannett, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Isaiah McKenzie, and Tommy Sweeney. If you are running a lot of lineups, having these players in a lineup or two makes sense, but if you are a 5-20 lineup player they aren’t a necessity.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Josh Allen
Flex: Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, Tre’Quan Smith
Captain: Josh Allen
Flex: Stefon Diggs, Marquez Callaway, Juwan Johnson
Captain: Mark Ingram
Flex: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Deonta Harris
Captain: Tony Jones
Flex: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Trevor Siemian
Captain: Tre’Quan Smith
Flex: Trevor Semian, Josh Allen, Emmanuel Sanders
