2024 Week 4 DFS Coverage Shells

What’s going on everyone, happy to be back with you all for another week of games providing key matchups to exploit for the upcoming game slate.

Since we are almost a month into the 2024 NFL season, we can slowly begin diving into player-specific tendencies, usage, opportunities and efficiency from this year’s data sample. It’s very important to remain cautious, but hedging present numbers with priors can be useful information for us as we head into Week 4.

Team Defenses

LAR @ CHI

The Rams travel to Chicago to take on the Bears this Sunday afternoon. The Bears are currently 3-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around just 40.5 points.

You might be wondering why this game is even being covered given the Rams’ pass-catcher injuries, the projected low-scoring environment, and the limping Bears offense through the first three weeks of the season. Let’s start with some “peripherals” and work our way towards more specifics.

Both of these offenses have moved at a quick pace in neutral game scripts. The Bears are averaging 29.26 seconds per play, the fastest in the NFL, while the Rams are averaging 29.82 seconds per play, the second-fastest in the NFL.

The Rams also possess the highest neutral pass rate (64%) and CHI also lands inside the top 10 offenses (54%):

Both WR rooms are top five in fantasy usage:

That gives us an implied close matchup, two offenses that play quicker than any other team in neutral affairs and two offenses that pass at notably high rates in neutral affairs.

When we're looking for an edge, anything that can help us tip the scales…these are the ingredients that encourage us to dig deeper.

QBs Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams are both priced at $5,600. If we look at their salaries relative to market-implied team points, the first overall pick in Williams appears to be the relative value:

As previously alluded to, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua aren’t slated to play for the Rams, while the Bears’ big three WRs are all projected to suit up together for the first time since Week 1.

This obviously makes CHI appear like a more advantageous passing attack when you exclude the QBs and playcallers. But another thing going for CHI relative to LAR is the pass protection:

The Rams own the worst PFF pass block grade in the NFL (33.5) while the Bears own the 8th-highest defensive pass rush grade (70.9).

Some more inner-game tidbits:

On third down, LAR has allowed 0.41 EPA/play to opponents, which ranks 31st among defenses. CHI has allowed -0.62 EPA/play, which ranks 2nd among defenses (via rbsdm.com/stats).

Offensively, CHI has seen the most third downs in the NFL from weeks 1-3 (52). This could provide some relief for the Bears’ dropback passing attack, and therefore their pass catchers in expected pass situations.

DJ Moore ($6,700) is priced as the WR1 for the Bears. But a healthy Keenan Allen ($6,100) and even rookie Rome Odunze ($5,200) both deserve more careful consideration given this coverage matchup.

Defensively, LAR deploys zone coverage at the league’s 5th-highest rate (77.9%), CHI at the 7th-highest rate (76.8%).

Odunze and Allen have been more efficient vs zone than Moore so far this season, although a limited sample up to this point:

JAX @ HOU

The 0-3 Jaguars travel to Houston to take on the 2-1 Texans for these squads’ first divisional matchup of the season. The Texans currently hold the second-highest team total of the week (25.75) and are favored by 5.5 points.

Defensively, the Jaguars deploy the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (61.4%) and the 4th-highest rate of single-high (64.0%).

This would normally feel like a coverage matchup delivered from the football gods for WR Nico Collins ($7,200), but a recent hamstring injury puts his Week 4 status in jeopardy:

Sophomore WR Tank Dell ($5,400) is battling a rib injury and is doubtful to play in this one. That leaves Stefon Diggs ($6,600) as the potential volume hog for QB CJ Stroud ($7,000) & company:

The Patriots deploy man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (39.0%) and two-high at the eighth-highest rate (50.4%)

Cover 0 at seventh-highest rate (6.5%)

Cover 1 at sixth-highest rate (31.7%)

Cover 2 at highest rate (26.8%)

WAS @ ARI

The Washington Commanders (2-1) fly cross-country to take on the Arizona Cardinals (1-2) in the Kliff Kingsbury revenge game.

ARI owns the highest team total of the week (26.75) and they’re 3.5-point favorites in a game total currently at 50. Very much worth a closer look.

Kyler Murray ($6,800) is priced as the QB7 and Jayden Daniels ($6,500) the QB10. In terms of PPG, Daniels is the QB3 and Kyler is the QB6.

Both of these QBs have the potential to be lethal with their legs. Because of the projected high scoring affair and rushing capabilities at the QB position, it makes sense that Murray/Daniels own higher floors relative to their pass catchers.

Cardinals TE Trey McBride ($6,000) is in concussion protocol and is doubtful to play, which could open the floodgates for WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500). Over the last two weeks, Harrison ranks 2nd in XFP/G (23.2) and 5th in DK FPG (24.7).

As for the Commanders’ pass catchers, WR Terry McLaurin ($5,800) eats first. McLaurin finished as the DK WR9 in last week’s win against the Bengals, also known as “The Jayden Daniels Game.”

It’s important to note that production was quite limited for WAS pass catchers throughout the first two weeks of the season. Collectively they recorded just 61 half-ppr points during that span (25th).

This is technically a homecoming game for TE Zach Ertz ($4,000), who is the only WAS pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin with double-digit targets on the season (13).

On the surface he is a decent value, and that is the case. But there’s a coverage split that, if applicable, could either put a major wrench in his outlook or fuel a higher volume outing.

ARI deploys zone on 77.3% of their coverage snaps, the 6th-highest rate among defenses.

If ARI is zone-heavy come Sunday, it could be bullish for Ertz. All 13 of his season targets have come vs. zone and he leads WAS with a 22.8% zone target share.

Ertz has 0 targets on 16 routes vs. man coverage.

RB Austin Ekeler is out with a head injury and he’s 3rd on the team with 9 targets. It’s hard to forecast Ertz making any explosive plays or being a downfield threat for Daniels in this system, but there are a few externalities that could clear a path for production.

SEA @ DET

The undefeated Seattle Seahawks travel to the Motor City to take on the Lions (2-1) as part of the Monday night double-header.

Earlier in the week, DET held the third-highest team total (26.0) and were 4.5-point home favorites. As of this article getting published, DET dropped to about -3.5 with the game total at about 46.5.

SEA is second among NFL offenses with a 63.3% neutral pass rate. DET allows a top five neutral pass rate (60.0%) and the fifth-highest EPA/dropback on early downs to opposing offenses this season (.234), per nflfastR.

Jared Goff ($6,700) is priced as the QB8, while Geno Smith ($5,800) lands outside the top 15.

Defensively, the Lions deploy man coverage at the third-highest rate (43.5%), and they use single-high looks the eighth-most often (60.0%). DET is top five in Cover 1 usage (39.1%) and they’re top ten in usage of Cover 4 (24.3%).

Geno Smith is averaging 0.64 points per dropback vs man coverage, top five at his position. He averages 0.34 vs zone, which falls outside the top 15 QBs.

WR DK Metcalf ($6,500) owns a 3.15 YPRR vs man, third-highest out of 29 qualifiers this season. Tyler Lockett ($5,000) is at 2.35 while Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,500) is at 1.87.

DET has an opportunity to dominate the trenches. They own the third-best PFF pass rush grade (81.3) while SEA owns the fourth-worst pass block grade (53.2).

Generally speaking, the latter two WRs have been more of ancillary pieces to Metcalf. That being said, unfamiliar game scripts and/or pressured dropbacks could shake up the pass game distribution with unforeseen volatility potentially aiding the cheaper weapons.

If you’re interested in SEA skill players and/or Geno Smith, pass protection could play a vital role in production opportunities alongside coverage tendencies.