2024 Week 15 DFS Coverage Shells

This article covers the Week 15 game slate. There are no more bye weeks to make note of going forward in the 2024 NFL regular season.

There are two Monday Night Football games this week, on December 16:

• Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (7:00 PM EST)

• Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders (7:30 PM EST)

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

Lucrative Passing Offenses

Wide Receiver/Tight End Values

MIA @ HOU

The Miami Dolphins (6-7) will look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive on the road against the Houston Texans (8-5) in a 12:00 PM EST kickoff. The Texans are currently 2.5-point home favorites, and the game total is 47 points.

Defensively, MIA deploys two-high shells at a top-10 frequency this season (50.1%).

Here are notable pass catchers in this matchup:

HOU WR Nico Collins ($8,100) is priced as the DK WR3. Collins leads all WRs in half PPG when playing at home (20.8) and averages less than 13.0 on the road.

Last season, Collins finished as the WR4 at home (18.1) and produced nearly less than half of that on the road (9.6).

Collins commands a high target share and is productive vs two-high looks on a per-route basis:

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100) returned in Week 8 following his month-long IR stint, but this didn’t change the already existing coverage narrative in this offense.

MIA has dropped back vs two-high looks at the highest rate in the league all year (58.3%). They dropback vs zone coverage at the 4th-highest rate (71.3%).

Over the last month of the season, HOU used the second-highest number of two-high shells defensively (59.2%) and the fifth-highest number of zone shells (78.9%).

TE Jonnu Smith ($5,400) has smashed zone and two-high in fantasy production this season:

TB @ LAC

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) hit the West Coast and will take on the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) on Sunday at 3:25 PM EST. The Chargers are currently 3-point favorites, and the game total hovers around 45 points.

Baker Mayfield ($6,400) is priced as the DK QB9, and Justin Herbert ($5,900) is priced outside of the top 15 QBs.

Some notes on TB defensively:

• Allowing the most PPG to opposing QBs (22.0)

• Blitzing at the highest rate in the league (43.0%)

• Deploying zone at the highest rate in the league (80.2%)

Herbert has been a far more productive fantasy QB against zone coverage on a per-dropback basis:

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

TE Will Dissly did not participate in Thursday’s practice and, in all likelihood, won’t suit up for this game. Rookie WR Ladd McConkey ($6,300) didn’t play in last week’s game vs KC, but has practiced this week and has a better shot at playing vs TB:

If McConkey plays, he commands a notable target share against zone this season:

Flipping the script, LAC deploys zone (77.5%) and two-high looks (58.7%) at the 3rd-highest rates in the league defensively.

Baker Mayfield ranks 3rd in fantasy points per dropback vs two-high (0.63) and 4th vs zone (0.44). He is notably more efficient vs two-high relative to single-high and makes this matchup vs a two-high heavy LAC defense interesting:

WR Mike Evans ($7,100) and TE Cade Otton ($4,500) are the optimal TB pass catchers from a coverage matchup standpoint:

DAL @ CAR

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8) head to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers (3-10) at 1:00 PM EST this Sunday. The Panthers are currently 2.5-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 43.5.

This isn’t one of the sexier games on the Week 15 slate, but there are coverage/defensive matchups to try and exploit.

Both defenses rank bottom five in schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG allowed to opposing QBs, DAL 29th (+3.1) and CAR 28th (+2.6).

A quick Panthers timeline to date:

• QB Bryce Young ($5,300) returned as the team’s starter in week 8

• WR Adam Thielen ($5,400) has been active since week 12. Injured from weeks 4-10 (bye was week 11)

• WR Jalen Coker ($3,700) was last active in week 10 but has a chance at playing

Bryce Young has played substantially better since returning, but Thielen and Coker haven’t played together since Young returned.

From weeks 8-10 (Thielen out), Young was targeting Coker:

Since their week 11 bye (Coker out), it’s been Thielen:

I’m interested in how these opportunities play out if both Thielen and Coker are active this week and through the remainder of the season.

Defensively, CAR deploys single-high at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (64.1%), while DAL deploys single-high at the 10th-highest rate (56.1%).

DAL WR CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) commands a substantial target share and is productive vs single-high:

Since QB Cooper Rush ($5,200) took over full time, DAL ranks 29th in dropback rate vs. single-high coverage (41.0%). DAL ranked top-10 with Dak Prescott starting.