The following teams are on a bye in Week 10:
Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers
Las Vegas Raiders
Seattle Seahawks
Team Defenses
Defenses heading into Week 10 pic.twitter.com/1vFmGq7HvK
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) November 6, 2024
Quarterback Values
Team Offenses
MIA @ LA
The Miami Dolphins (2-6) travel cross-country to Los Angeles to take on the Rams (4-4) on Monday Night Football. The Rams currently stand as 1.5-point favorites, and the game total is 50, which is the third-highest on the slate.
Defensively, LA ranks 5th in single-high coverage usage (60.4%). They’re allowing the most fantasy points per dropback to opposing offenses in single-high this season (0.58).
It will be interesting to see whether LA tilts into more two-high usage like many defenses have done against Mike McDaniel throughout his tenure as the Dolphins HC.
MIA faces single-high looks at the 2nd-lowest rate among offenses (42.7%). They face two-high at the 2nd-highest rate (56.9%).
If MIA drops back against single-high looks more often than normal, it’s reasonable to be bullish on WR Tyreek Hill ($7,500) with QB Tua Tagovailoa ($6,300) back playing.
DET @ HOU
The Detroit Lions (7-1) travel to Houston to take on the Texans (6-3) on Sunday Night Football. The Lions are currently 3.5-point favorites and the game total is hovering around 49.
These are two run-heavy offenses. DET ranks 27th in neutral pass rate (47.9%), and HOU is tied for 21st in neutral pass rate (50.3%) this season.
However, both defenses stop opposing running backs and tight ends in fantasy, but they do give up points to opposing wide receivers.
HOU allows the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing RBs (17.3), while DET allows the 5th-fewest (18.9).
DET is tied for giving up the second-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing TEs (7.3), while HOU allows the fewest (6.6).
DET allows the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to opposing WRs (41.9), while HOU allows the 7th-most (35.8).
With WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out for HOU, it makes a stronger case for second-year WR Tank Dell ($7,400).
Defensively, DET deploys the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL at 43.7%.
Dell owns a notably higher target share and has been more productive on a per-route basis relative to teammate Dalton Schultz ($4,100):
HOU ranks top-10 among defenses in usage of single-high coverage (57.5%).
While DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100) owns a notable share of the team’s single-high targets, he’s not the most efficient WR1 against these looks:
NYG @ CAR
The New York Giants (2-7) take on the Carolina Panthers (2-7) in Germany this Sunday. The Giants are currently favored by 6.5 points and the game total is hovering around 40.5.
Defensively, CAR deploys the 6th-most zone coverage (74.4%) and the 2nd-most single-high coverage (67.2%) in the league.
NYG WR Malik Nabers ($7,600) dominates his team’s targets vs single-high looks:
As for NYG defensively, they deploy single-high at the 4th-highest rate (61.0%).
CAR recently traded WR Jonathan Mingo to the Dallas Cowboys after dealing WR Diontae Johnson to the Baltimore Ravens the week prior, so there are some opportunities opening up for their pass catchers.
Rookie WR Jalen Coker ($3,800) has received a lot of hype on social media in recent weeks, and whether that’s deserved or not, his price tag makes him a decent cheap play if you’re attacking this early Sunday morning game.
BUF @ IND
The Buffalo Bills (7-2) hit the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) on early Sunday afternoon. The Bills are currently 4-point favorites and the game total is at 47.5.
There have been pass-catcher injuries with both offenses in recent weeks, not to mention the indefinite QB change for the Colts going with veteran Joe Flacco ($5,500) the rest of the way.
As of Thursday of this week, IND WR Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,000) was a DNP for the second straight day, making his status for Sunday doubtful at this point:
Colts WR Michael Pittman, Jr. was the only player on their 53-man active roster who did not practice today, while Bills WR Keon Coleman was the only player on their 53-man active roster who did not practice today.
— Sal Capaccio 🏈 (@SalSports) November 7, 2024
In this first season without WR Stefon Diggs, and we’ve seen QB Josh Allen ($7,700) spread targets around quite a bit. The team traded for veteran WR Amari Cooper ($5,800) and he first played for BUF in Week 7. Cooper missed last week’s game but is aiming to play vs IND.
Defensively, IND deploys the 3rd-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (76.5%). More specifically, they run Cover 2 at the 4th-highest rate (21.0%) and Cover 3 at the 4th-highest rate among defenses this season (40.5%).
On a broad scale, WR Khalil Shakir ($6,000) is BUF’s most ideal target vs zone coverage:
Defensively, BUF ranks 5th in zone coverage usage (74.5%) and 4th in usage of two-high shells (56.3%).
The next two visuals are IND pass catchers against zone, and then against two-high:
As you can see, WR Josh Downs ($6,200) is IND’s go-to weapon from these coverage splits. Downs is certainly an interesting play and that’s not even considering Pittman’s questionable status for the game.
