The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props and it’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Most Passing Touchdown Odds for the top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Trevor Lawrence and a few additional wagers I considered.
Dak Prescott led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns last season, which cashed the ninth-shortest odds at +2000. He easily bested Jordan Love (32, +6600), Brock Purdy (31, +5000), and Jared Goff (31, +2000) for the passing TD crown. Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to lead the league in passing touchdowns for the second time in the last three seasons entering his age-28 campaign. He’s followed by Dak Prescott (+600), Joe Burrow (+700), C.J. Stroud (+700), and Kirk Cousins (+700) at 7/1 odds or shorter.
I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Most Rushing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Rushing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 33 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
Passing Touchdowns Leaders from the Last Decade
| Year | Quarterback | Age | Record | Passing TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2023 | Dak Prescott (Dal) | 30 | 12-5 | 36 | +2000 (t-9th) |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 26 | 14-3 | 41 | +800 (5th) |
| 2021 | Tom Brady (TB) | 44 | 13-4 | 43 | +500 (2nd) |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 36 | 13-3 | 48 | +2000 (t-11th) |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 22 | 14-2 | 36 | +22500 (34th) |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 22 | 12-4 | 50 | +3100 (16th) |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson (Sea) | 28 | 9-7 | 34 | +3300 (t-11th) |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 32 | 10-6 | 40 | N/A |
| 2015 | Tom Brady (NE) | 38 | 12-4 | 36 | N/A |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck (Ind) | 24 | 11-5 | 40 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds in this category from the last seven seasons, and this has been a market to bet players with longer odds. Quarterbacks with +2000 odds or longer threw for the most TDs in 2017-20 before Tom Brady (+500) and Patrick Mahomes (+800) won as top-five favorites in 2021-22. The longer-shot winners returned in 2023 with Dak Prescott (+2000) cruising to a league-best 36 scores. Lamar Jackson had longer odds to throw the most TDs in 2019 than the likes of Dwayne Haskins (+15000), Josh Rosen (+20000), and Case Keenum (+20000). He had the 34th-longest odds, which means he had longer odds than some backup QBs.
It’s been a near-must for the league leader in passing TDs to lead a double-digit-win team. Russell Wilson (+3300) is the only QB in the last decade to lead a team finished below that mark, and the league leader in passing TDs has hit 12+ wins in six straight seasons. The league leader in passing touchdowns has hit 36+ scores in nine of the last 10 seasons, which equates to a little more than 2.1 touchdown passes per game. There have been no real trends in terms of the age of the passing touchdown leader. Mahomes (2018) and Jackson (2019) each led the league at 22 years old while Brady (2021) doubled them up by doing it at age 44. Over the last decade, there’s been a wide range of ages to pace the league in passing TDs in that 22-year gap between Mahomes/Jackson and Brady.
2024 NFL Most Passing Touchdowns Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points passing touchdowns projection. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Passing TDs to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of July 8.
| Quarterback | FP Projection | Longest Odds for Most Passing TDs | Shortest Odds for Most Passing TDs |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 28.8 | +1200 (CZR) | +700 (MGM) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 28.7 | +900 (FD/CZR) | +600 (MGM) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 27.4 | +1600 (DK) | +1000 (MGM) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 27.3 | +650 (DK) | +500 (MGM) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 26.7 | +1600 (DK) | +1400 (ESPN/CZR/FD) |
| Kirk Cousins (Atl) | 26.3 | +1600 (CZR) | +700 (MGM) |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 25.6 | +1900 (FD) | +1000 (MGM) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 25.5 | +1300 (FD) | +700 (MGM) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 25.0 | +2000 (MGM) | +1500 (ESPN) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 24.8 | +1500 (MGM) | +1100 (FD) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 24.8 | +2500 (DK/MGM) | +1800 (ESPN) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 24.0 | +1200 (CZR) | +1000 (FD/MGM/ESPN) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 23.7 | +3000 (MGM) | +2200 (DK) |
| Derek Carr (NO) | 23.6 | +4000 (DK/ESPN/CZR) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 23.0 | +3000 (MGM/FD) | +2500 (CZR/ESPN) |
| Geno Smith (Sea) | 22.6 | +4000 (MGM/CZR/ESPN) | +3200 (FD) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 22.4 | +3000 (MGM) | +2500 (ESPN/CZR) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 22.3 | +5000 (MGM) | +3300 (CZR) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 22.2 | +5000 (MGM) | +2500 (ESPN) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 21.4 | +3000 (MGM/DK/FD) | +2500 (ESPN) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 20.3 | +3500 (CZR) | +2500 (DK/MGM) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 20.2 | +7500 (ESPN) | +4500 (DK) |
| Deshaun Watson (Cle) | 19.5 | +8000 (MGM) | +4000 (DK) |
| Will Levis (Ten) | 19.4 | +10000 (MGM) | +4000 (DK) |
| Anthony Richardson (Ind) | 18.8 | +15000 (MGM) | +4000 (CZR) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 18.4 | +8000 (MGM) | +5500 (CZR) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Trevor Lawrence (Jax) most regular season passing touchdowns (+5000, BetMGM). Placed July 8.
The Jaguars paid Lawrence top-of-the-market money this off-season, tying him with Joe Burrow for the highest average annual value at $55 million. Burrow has been the significantly better quarterback so far, including in career TD rate (5.1%>3.3%). Lawrence has averaged 583.3 attempts in his first three seasons and a bump to Burrow’s 5.1% TD rate would get him to 29.7 passing TDs per season. His 3.7% TD rate will simply improve if he gets more help from new receivers Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis. Our Scott Barrett pointed out that Lawrence ranked ninth in accurate throw rate but 29th in completion percentage on throws 10+ yards downfield.
The Jaguars have been pass-happy in Lawrence’s first three seasons. They ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation (5.2%), 10th in pass rate from inside the 20-yard line (55.4%), and ninth in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line (54.4%). The Jaguars sit at +156 odds (39.1% implied odds) to reach 10+ wins at FanDuel Sportsbook, which means a double-digit win campaign is well within reach, especially if Lawrence’s TD rate goes up. Longer shots have thrived in this statistical category and true longshots Jordan Love (+6600) and Brock Purdy (+5000) finished second and third last season, respectively. Lawrence has the pedigree to eventually lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and, with better efficiency, maybe it could happen as early as 2024.
Brolley’s Leans
Jared Goff (Det) most regular season passing touchdowns (+1600, DraftKings).
Goff is one of the more intriguing bets on the board after he finished third in passing TDs last season with 30 scores. It was the fourth time in his eight-year career he’s reached 28+ TDs, and he’s thrown for a combined 59 scores in the last two years after a rocky first campaign with the Lions in 2021. Goff reached 30 touchdowns a year ago despite the Lions ranking 21st in pass rate over expectation (-.4%), 29th in pass rate from inside the 20-yard line (44.2%), and 25th in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line (41.2%). Detroit finished behind only San Francisco (61) and Miami (61) in total TDs with 58, but it ranked 29th in percentage of touchdowns to come via the pass (49.2%). Goff has a path to more passing TDs if David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs see their 23 rushing TDs from last season regress to the mean. I can’t quite get to the window to bet Goff at his current odds but I could do it if he drifts closer to +2000 later this summer.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) most regular season passing touchdowns (+1800, FanDuel).
Rodgers owns a pair of passing TD crowns in his 19-year career, tossing for 48 scores in 2020 and 40 TDs in 2016. He also reached 37+ TDs four other times (2011, 2012, 2014, and 2021) without leading the league in passing scores. Rodgers owns an incredible 6.2% career TD rate, which is the best mark among all quarterbacks who have played their entire careers during the Super Bowl era. Rodgers threw for 111 TDs with a 6.8% TD rate in three seasons under Nathaniel Hackett in 2019-21, and the current Jets OC has shown a propensity to throw the rock inside the red zone. The Rodger-less Jets ranked first in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line (73.1%) and second in pass rate from inside the 20-yard line (64.5%). The Broncos also ranked 12th in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line and eighth in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line (61.2%) in Hackett’s 15 disastrous games as Denver HC in 2022. Rodgers should receive more opportunities to throw for touchdowns than most quarterbacks as long as Hackett is calling plays, which makes him a solid bet to lead the league in TDs at +1900 odds.
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) most regular season passing touchdowns (+2000, BetMGM)
Tua hovered around the top of the NFL passing touchdown lead through the first three months of the 2023 campaign, ranking second in passing scores with 24 through the first 13 weeks. He threw for just 5 TDs in his final five games to fall off the pace, but the Dolphins still finished tied with the 49ers for the most touchdowns. Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 6.3% TD rate during his concussion-riddled 2022 campaign, and he’s sitting at a 5.6% rate the last two seasons. It’s no fluke since he’s throwing to the ultimate game-breaker at receiver in Tyreek Hill. Jaylen Waddle is also due for touchdown regression after scoring just once for every 254 receiving yards last season — the league average was a TD for every 166 receiving yards. The Dolphins ranked 11th in pass rate over expectation (2.4%) overall but 26th in pass rate from inside the 20-yard line (47.0%) and 19th in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line. Tagovailoa should get more passing TD opportunities if Raheem Mostert takes a step back after running pure with an NFL-best 18 rushing touchdowns on 209 carries (8.6% TD rate).
Will Levis (Ten) most regular season passing touchdowns (+10000, BetMGM).
Tennessee is set to move to a more pass-heavy attack under Brian Callahan after ranking 30th in pass attempts (494), 29th in passing yards (1846), and 29th in passing TDs (16) last season. Callahan coaxed Bengals backup Jake Browning into throwing for 12 TDs in 242 attempts (5.0% rate) from Week 11 on. Levis mustered just a 3.1% TD rate in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense last season, but the Titans added Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard to go along with DeAndre Hopkins, Tyjae Spears, and Chig Okonkwo. The Bengals ranked second in pass rate over expectation (7.5%) and sixth in pass rate from inside the 20-yard line (56.5%) last season. The Titans own +610 odds (14.1% implied odds) to reach 10+ wins at FanDuel Sportsbook, which means Levis is unlikely to lead the Titans to a double-digit win campaign. I’m not going to make this an official play, but these odds are too long for me to pass on sprinkling a few bucks on it.
