For a massive undertaking like Fantasy Points Data, we need a large team of dedicated and educated charting professionals to ensure that we are able to get statistics posted on the website both accurately and quickly.
While the data-charting process is, by nature, objective, our team will obviously form opinions about what they saw, given we have to watch every play multiple times.
Every week, we’ll select the most notable observations and back them up with the objective data we’ve become known for.
Here are our top observations for 2024 NFL Week 7.
Week 7 Data Charter Observations
1. “Patrick Mahomes no longer relies on downfield passing to move the ball. They have become a team predicated on their defense and running game. Of course, Mahomes can throw the ball downfield, but their offense seems to be more based on creative play calling from Andy Reid and Kareem Hunt pounding the rock with an occasional deep throw.”
To no one’s surprise, the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL is none other than the defending Super Bowl Champions. Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes continues to lead his team to victory despite now throwing 8 interceptions to just 6 touchdowns on the season. HC Andy Reid actually dialed up 5 deep throws for Mahomes this week after he attempted no more than 2 in any game this season, but the Chiefs’ offense fed 22 handoffs to RB Kareem Hunt to move the ball. Hunt consistently pushed through contact averaging a healthy 2.77 YACO/ATT while converting touchdowns on runs of 1 and 6 yards in the first half. Injuries continue to pile up at WR for the Chiefs, so expect another run-heavy game in Week 8 as the Chiefs visit the Raiders, who have allowed the 8th most rushing yards to opposing RBs (957). We’ll see if the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins changes things.
2. “Jared Goff doesn’t have a turnover-worthy throw in the last 3 weeks and looks like the best QB in the NFL. After spreading the ball among multiple receivers the past few weeks, Amon-ra St. Brown was the go-to target in a big game for the Lions. As always, the Lions ran the ball aggressively with Jahmyr Gibbs ripping multiple big runs.”
Some call him classless, I call him a football guy. Lions’ HC Dan Campbell has led his team to the top spot in the NFC standings on the back of QB Jared Goff. Since a Week 2 loss at home to the Bucs, Goff has a turnover-worthy throw rate of just 1.1% (4th best) while throwing 9 touchdowns with only 15 incompletions. Goff was spreading the ball around to all of his weapons through Week 6, but called on his best pass catcher in WR Amon-ra St. Brown in Week 7 to take down the division rival Vikings. St. Brown caught all 8 of his targets and converted it into 112 yards and a touchdown, including 8 crucial first downs to consistently move the chains. In Week 8, they Lions play the Titans, who were just exploited for 323 yards through the air in Week 7.
3. “Ja’Marr Chase is playing with such anger. We all may remember his blow-up a few weeks back, when he took his helmet off and was screaming and such. He is still doing that, but this time with the helmet on. Every time he touches the ball, he is doing it with such an attitude like he has something to prove to the whole world. Even the body language in between the plays, he is talking to the other team and stirring the competitive pot. He is playing like a man possessed.”
The strategy might be suboptimal, but the Bengals appear to enjoy falling behind in the loss column in September as if it’s some sort of motivational tactic once the calendar turns to October and beyond. WR Ja’Marr Chase took the lead in receiving yards in the NFL thanks to a 4-game stretch where Chase produced 405 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a whopping 10 missed tackles forced, which contributed to the Bengals going 3-1 in that span. The return of teammate Tee Higgins helped open matchups for Chase as Higgins ranks 6th in the NFL with 26 receptions in the past 4 games turning in 302 yards and 3 touchdowns of his own. On the season, the pair are sporting solid win rates of 18.7% for Higgins and 15.1% for Chase to go along with a beastly 0.24 and 0.28 MTF/REC rate respectively. In Week 8, Chase and Higgins draw the Eagles, who have been better against the pass, but have allowed a concerning missed tackle rate to pass catchers at 0.18 MTF/REC (7th most).
4. "Breece Hall’s burst has been missing. He’s a crafty, skilled player, but that explosive animal he used to be is no longer there."
The Jets fell to 2-5 on the season following a 37-15 loss in Week 7, when the Steelers rattled off the final 31 points of the game. Among the biggest problems for the Jets is the running game led by RB Breece Hall and his inability to truly break out this season. His box score output the past two games has looked great, but the underlying stats tell a different story. Hall’s missed tackle forced rate has been cut in half from the 2023 season, down from 0.26 to a pedestrian 0.13 in 2024. His top-end GPS speed is also down, with a season-high of just 19.6 mph, although he cleared 20.0 mph six times last year. QB Aaron Rodgers has struggled to get the passing game in gear as he ranks 31st in completion rate over expectation at a terrible rate of -4.1%, only beating out Anthony Richardson. The Patriots present an opportunity for Hall and the Jets’ running game in Week 8 as the Patriots enter hemorrhaging big rushing numbers to opposing RBs.
5. “Amari Cooper was good, but Keon Coleman was even better. His run-after-catch ability was excellent, and he had a long catch run on an extended play where Allen scrambled and found Coleman downfield for a long gain. He took another quick slant for a long gain. He broke a tackle and was off to the races. He isn’t the fastest WR, but he can make the first man miss and get up field. This was the first time that Coleman seemed to really be involved with the offense where he was in on most plays and had numerous plays dialed up for him.”
QB Josh Allen wasted no time in utilizing his new weapon WR Amari Cooper en route to 34 unanswered points, culminating in a 34-10 win over the Titans. Cooper hauled in 4 out of 5 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown, but was overshadowed by rookie WR Keon Coleman turning in his best performance of the season. Last week, we talked about Cooper helping the Bills’ receiving corps with getting open, and his first game in Buffalo was exactly that, as Cooper produced a team-high win rate of 25.0% albeit on limited snaps. The bigger story belonged to Coleman, who paced the NFL in receiving yards in Week 7 due largely to the rookie racking up 81 YAC yards. Allen and company will look to build on their best passing game of the season in a Week 8 matchup against the Seahawks, who were without top CBs Riq Woolen and Tre Brown last week.
6. “Kenneth Walker is the one RB you could argue has similar explosiveness to Bijan Robinson. In this game, he showed once again that if you fail to secure the edge of the LOS, or give up containment, your defense is absolutely toast. Twice in the first quarter, it looked like the Seahawks hit the same outside zone run to the left, and Walker cut it back right, Geno got out in front, blocking the edge for him, and it busted into a big play, one of which was a touchdown called back by a questionable holding call.”
Tackle-breaking extraordinaire Kenneth Walker was back at it again in Week 7 with 3 more missed tackles forced on 14 attempts bringing his MTF rate to 0.32 MTF/ATT (2nd best). Walker finished with 69 yards and a score and tacked on 24 receiving yards and another touchdown in the Seahawks 34-14 win over the Falcons. The NFL’s leader in passing yards, Geno Smith, was able to ride Walker in this game as Smith threw for 207 yards (his second-lowest total on the season) and a pair of touchdowns. The Seahawks will likely continue to lean on Walker in their upcoming matchup with the Bills, who rank near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
7. “ Saquon Barkley’s revenge game was worth the price of admission. Every time he touched the ball, the fans would rain down with their boos, but as the fans grew tired doing this every play, it seemed like the defense got tired of defending Saquon. Eventually, Barkley was able to break off two huge runs that set up his touchdown, and almost set him up for a 2nd, but Jalen Hurts didn't see him wide open on a swing route early in the 3rd quarter, which ended up with Hurts getting a tush push touchdown”
In his return to MetLife Stadium, Eagles’ RB Saquon Barkley torched his former team to the tune of 187 total yards and a touchdown in an easy win over the Giants. Barkley kept up his attempt to break our yards before contact metric with a ridiculous 7.29 YBCO/ATT rate in Week 7, bringing his season average to a league-leading 3.73 among RBs. The Eagles’ offensive line opening up massive holes has guided Barkley to 312 yards on explosive runs, which ranks 2nd behind only Derrick Henry on the season. With Barkley ripping off run after run, QB Jalen Hurts was summoned for just 14 pass attempts for 114 yards, but he was able to salvage his fantasy output by pushing the pile for 2 touchdowns in the second half. Four of the Eagles’ next five games come against defenses ranking bottom-half in the league in YBCO/ATT, which bodes well for Barkley to continue his excellent 2024 season.
8. “The Colts played mostly zone coverage and Miami rarely took any shots, besides one where Tyreek Hill looked like he lost the ball in the lights. Both Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle struggled to find the soft spots in the zone and bailed too early when they had a guy settle open in the middle of the zone.”
Hopefully Dolphins’ starting QB Tua Tagovailoa can return and permanently stay at full health for this season and the rest of his career. On the season, the Dolphins are averaging a disgusting 11.7 points per game, which has crushed any fantasy value for their collection of pre-season high priced fantasy assets. The Dolphins’ latest offensive debacle saw QBs Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle muster a combined 161 passing yards, with 96 of them going to TE Jonnu Smith of all players. With Tua out, WR Tyreek Hill posted some of his lowest outputs of his tenure with the Dolphins, leading to Hill ranking 33rd in YPRR at 1.91 after Hill led the NFL in YPRR in each of the last two seasons. Teammate Jaylen Waddle has been even worse by failing to cross 50 receiving yards in any game since Week 1. Tua is on track to return in Week 8 just in time for an enticing matchup against the Cardinals and their bottom-five passing defense (1,731 passing yards allowed).
9. “Brian Thomas Jr. is the real deal. The Jaguars used him in a variety of ways, dialing up deep shots, screens, and crossers for the rookie. He’s easily the best receiver on the Jaguars and the case can be made that he’s the best rookie WR in football this year.”
Jaguars’ rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. is in elite company with a dominant 2.73 YPRR through Week 7 this season. Thomas posted 89 yards and a touchdown, catching all 5 of his targets in the Jaguards 32-16 win over the Patriots. If not for the Jaguars’ run game having tons of success, Thomas could have had an even bigger day, but the Jags ended up going run-heavy once they built a double-digit lead. With most of the rookie WR conversation surrounding Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., Thomas is quietly leading all rookies in receiving yards at 513 and tying for the lead in receiving touchdowns at 4. Packers CB Jaire Alexander awaits Thomas in Week 8 in what should be an entertaining matchup between Thomas and Alexander.
Bonus Observations
Patriots QB Drake Maye — Maye had a much easier matchup this week, but Drake looked promising again by throwing the ball downfield and having a good feel for when to take off. Despite poor weapons, Maye ranks top half in the league in ANY/A (6.26), ADJ COMP (76.2%), and CATCH% (74.3%).
Browns RB Nick Chubb — If you are a Chubb fan, seeing him come back and play here was more than you could have hoped for. He stepped into a significant role, including a concerted effort to get the man a touchdown to end the 1st half with 4 carries inside the 6 (including a touchdown called back). Chubb was contacted quickly upon taking the hand off averaging just 0.27 YBCO/ATT, but perhaps QB Jameis Winston taking over will help open up the running game for Chubb.
49ers QB Brock Purdy — Terrible game from Purdy. Not having Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel for the majority of the game doesn’t help, but Purdy misfired badly on all 3 of his interceptions. One of them was a miscommunication, but the other two were just poor decisions. The Chiefs rattled Purdy to the effect of a -2.4% CPOE, 66.7 % ADJ COMP, 22.6% ACC%, and a 19.4% OFF%. With Aiyuk out for the season, Purdy will need to find a way to overcome the plethora of injuries that have plagued the 49ers this season.
