For a massive undertaking like Fantasy Points Data, we need a large team of dedicated and educated charting professionals to ensure that our statistics can be posted on the website accurately and quickly.
While the data-charting process is, by nature, objective, our team will obviously form opinions about what they saw, given we have to watch every play multiple times.
Every week, we’ll select the most notable observations and back them up with the objective data we’ve become known for.
Here are our top observations for 2024 NFL Week 11.
Week 11 Data Charter Observations
1. “Big plays continue to be non-existent in the Kansas City offense. Between Patrick Mahomes dinking and dunking down the field and their inability to pick up yards after the catch, the Chiefs consistently have to rely on sustaining long drives to score. Outside of Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs hardly target anyone down the field.”
QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were handed their first loss of the season at the hands of Josh Allen and the Bills by a score of 30-21. HC Andy Reid moved this offense to a run-centric and a short passing game attack ever since the departure of WR Tyreek Hill, and this season has been even more focused on that approach. Mahomes ranks 35th out of 36 quarterbacks in aDOT at 6.1 yards (minimum 150 dropbacks) this season. His aDOT was actually up a little bit at 7.1 yards against the Bills in Week 11, but the Chiefs struggled to find big plays by registering just one play over 20 yards.
The reliance on sustaining drives is not necessarily a bad thing considering the Chiefs converted three touchdown drives with 9 plays or more on Sunday. However, the lack of big plays has contributed to Mahomes averaging just 240.4 passing yards per game on the season, which is about 50 yards per game below his career average. The Chiefs face the lowly Panthers in Week 12, giving Mahomes and this offense a prime opportunity to find big plays against a porous defense.
2. “The Steelers just have the Ravens number defensively. It seemed like they knew the play call on every snap and were a step ahead of the Ravens offense at every turn. Their defensive game plan for Jayden Daniels was the same for Lamar Jackson. They clearly emphasized keeping him in the pocket and made him throw outside the numbers, forcing numerous incompletions to the perimeter receivers.”
Matchups between the Ravens and Steelers are always closely contested games, and Week 11 was no different as the Steelers held the Ravens to their lowest point total of the season in an 18-16 victory in Pittsburgh. On the season, Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson ranks top 5 in passing yards (282) and rushing attempts (31) on scrambles, often extending plays to find receivers downfield or wide open rushing lanes to exploit.
In Week 11, the Steelers’ defense held Jackson without a rushing attempt on a scramble for the first time all season and limited him to just 2 completions on 5 attempts for 27 yards on scrambles while sacking him twice. Combine that with 3 forced turnovers, and you have just 16 points scored for a Ravens’ offense that averages 30.4 points per game on the season. The Ravens square off with the Chargers in the “Harbaugh Bowl” in Week 12, where the Chargers are coming off a game in which they allowed their highest offensive output of their season to the Bengals.
3. “This week, the Colts FINALLY built their offense around the threat of Anthony Richardson’s legs by utilizing RPO on damn near every single snap of this game. Whether it was a run or pass play, they almost always had AR5 doing a little keeper action that would hold the outside containment just enough, and in some cases, allowed them to leave a defender unblocked to read off of giving the offense an advantage.”
The Colts effectively ended the Jets season, while keeping theirs alive in a 28-27 comeback victory in Week 11. QB Anthony Richardson posted easily his best game of the season, throwing for a career-high 272 yards on a season-high 20 completions and a score to go along with 32 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.
Much maligned for his poor accuracy, Richardson showed significant improvement in his return to action with increases in ADJ COMP% (88.5%), ACC% (43.3%), and CATCH% (76.7%). The Colts clearly wanted to make life easier for Richardson as they dialed up 16 dropbacks using play action (2nd most in Week 11) and emphasized quick passes as his time-to-throw rate was 2.25 seconds against the Jets compared to 2.73 entering Week 11. The Colts will have their hands full next week as they take on the Lions who own an immaculate 7:14 TD-INT ratio on defense.
4. “Christian McCaffrey’s explosiveness isn’t there yet. He struggled to break runs through to the second level, but did make some defenders miss more frequently than in his first game back. Kyle Shanahan clearly has no plans of limiting CMC’s playing time, but his effectiveness will take time.”
A Super Bowl hangover is in full effect as the 49ers fell to 5-5 (1-3 in the NFC West) following a 20-17 loss at home to the Seahawks. There is still time to get this offense back to the well-oiled machine it was in previous seasons, but the return of RB Christian McCaffrey has not quite made the difference that 49ers’ fans were expecting. CMC did force 5 missed tackles on his way to 106 total yards, albeit against the Seahawks, who have allowed 59 missed tackles forced on run plays (2nd most). However, CMC failed to register an explosive run in his second straight game.
Overall, the 49ers failed to generate big plays, as WR Jauan Jennings was the only pass catcher to total more than 27 yards through the air. While the season is far from over, the 49ers play back-to-back difficult road matchups against the Packers in Week 12 and the Bills in Week 13, and they desperately need to get their offense in gear.
5. “Chargers pass rate over expectation continues to be positive. They have leaned more into the pass and play-action passing. The offense has a specific role for each receiver and they all do their jobs well. Justin Herbert’s legs are a legitimate threat. Fully healthy Herbert is a top-5 QB in my opinion.”
“Same old Chargers” was nearly the headline coming out of Week 11, but QB Justin Herbert was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in a 34-27 win over the Bengals. Herbert led four scoring drives of 66+ yards en route to a 27-6 3rd quarter lead before QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals came roaring back to tie the game at 27 apiece early in the 4th quarter. The Chargers needed one more scoring drive to secure the victory, and Herbert connected with WR Ladd McConkey for 55 yards on the final drive, setting up RB JK Dobbins’ 29-yard game-winning touchdown run.
Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers were expected to revert to a pre-WWII level of run plays. While they have been one of the more run-heavy teams, the Chargers’ pass rate has jumped to 57.8 % since their bye in Week 5, up from 47.9% in Weeks 1-4. Herbert has played well in this environment, ranking 9th in YPA at 7.89 yards with a 13:1 TD:INT ratio and a spectacular 1.4% TWT% (3rd best).
The Chargers will face the Ravens in the Harbaugh Bowl in Week 12. The Ravens’ defense has been the most extreme pass-funnel defense in the NFL, giving up 3,351 passing yards (the most in the league).
6. “Someone remind me: is this a Sean Payton-coached Broncos team, or Sean McVay? I ask because the amount of motion and unique player packages being used the last two weeks has me confused about who’s drawing this up!”
HC Sean Payton completed a dominant sweep of the NFC South in a 38-6 whomping of the Falcons in Week 11, bringing the Broncos’ scoring differential to 125-37 against NFC South opponents on the season. QB Bo Nix has entered the Rookie of the Year discussion by turning in his best game of the season on the back of a 307-yard, 4-touchdown performance. Over Nix’s last four games, the rookie is averaging 257.3 YDS/G with 10 total touchdowns, 1 interception, 7.6% CPOE, 81.6% ADJ COMP%, 54.9% ACC%, and 83.5% CATCH%. Simply put, Nix is playing as well as any rookie over the last month of football.
Payton dialed up plays for nearly any and all skill position players in Week 11 as ten players caught a pass, four pass catchers had 49+ receiving yards, four pass catchers caught a touchdown, and six ball carriers had at least two attempts. The Broncos take on the Raiders in Week 12 who have been up and down this season ranking top-10 in passing yards allowed (2,192) and bottom-10 in passing touchdowns allowed (18).
7. “Fully expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to lead the week in ASS. There were two throws in particular where Jared Goff absolutely maximized the play on crossing routes to both Jameson Williams and St. Brown. He hit them perfectly in stride leading to diving defenders attempting to swat the pass and allowing for long catch-and-run touchdowns.”
The Lions “scrimmaged” the quitting Jaguars in Week 11, leading to a predictable 52-6 win at home. QB Jared Goff paced the NFL in passing this week, throwing for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns while guiding the Lions to maybe the craziest stat of the NFL season so far this year. The Lions scored a touchdown on all of their first seven drives of the game, with all of the drives being at least 64 yards and five of the drives being at least 80 yards. Just an absolute clinic.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown did, in fact, lead the league in ASS this week posting an elite 0.355 ASS on his way to a 11/161/2 statline. Teammate Jameson Williams tried to keep pace, posting a solid ASS of 0.115 and needing just 4 catches to total 124 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown reception. The Lions’ passing attack sees another tantalizing matchup in Week 12 against the Colts, who have allowed 2,719 passing yards (5th most).
8. “Seems pretty obvious to anyone with eyes that Jayden Daniels is still affected by his rib injury. He struggled with some throws he normally makes and was content with getting rid of the ball early and taking the checkdowns. If this continues, Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson will both stay busy in the receiving game.”
The Commanders suffered their second straight loss to kick off Week 11, this one to divisional rival Philadelphia. QB Jayden Daniels led a touchdown drive early in the game, but largely struggled the rest of the way, by completing just 3 passes for 24 yards to WRs. Back in Week 7, Daniels left the game with a rib injury and has been unable to return to the form he displayed prior to it.
Over the last three games, Daniels is averaging 200.7 Passing YDS/G and a more concerning 19.3 Rushing YDS/G, which implies his rib injury could be limiting his effectiveness. During this three-game span, RB Austin Ekeler has racked up 137 receiving yards, which is slightly behind WR Terry McLaurin’s team-leading 142 receiving yards. Daniels and the Commanders have a get-right game on tap for Week 12 as they host the Cowboys who have allowed 293 points to opposing offenses (4th most).
Bonus Observations
Bears QB Caleb Williams — Williams used his legs more than in other games and was quick to run, which is a massive improvement over the last few weeks where he would hang in the pocket too long. With new OC Thomas Brown calling plays, Williams registered a 2.21 time-to-throw rate and a 6.8 aDOT (down from 2.70 TTT and 8.6 aDOT), which highlighted an attempt to simplify the offense and get the ball out to the Bears’ play makers.
Patriots QB Drake Maye — Maye continues to improve every week. He understands when to leave the pocket and is good with his legs. He is limited by his weapons, but is making it work. Maye posted the highest passing total of his young career with 282 yards despite seeing the shortest Week 11 time-to-pressure rate of 1.93 seconds.
Saints QB/TE/RB Taysom Hill — the Taysom experience is inevitable year-after-year. Hill completed an 18-yard pass, threw a pick, ran for 138 yards with 3 touchdowns, and caught 8 passes for 50 yards. Albeit on a small sample size, Hill has ridiculous rates of 4.03 YBCO/ATT, 3.85 YBCO/ATT, 17.6 TD Rate, 5.9% EXP Run%, with respectable rates of 1.90 YPRR and 6.67 YAC/REC.
