For a massive undertaking like Fantasy Points Data, we need a large team of dedicated and educated charting professionals to ensure that we can get statistics posted on the website both accurately and quickly.
While the data-charting process is, by nature, objective, our team will obviously form opinions about what they saw, given we have to watch every play multiple times.
Every week, we’ll select the most notable observations and back them up with the objective data we’ve become known for.
Here are our top observations for 2024 NFL Week 10.
Week 10 Data Charter Observations
1. “When Dan Campbell made the “biting kneecaps” speech, this is the style of game that he was talking about. The Lions buried themselves in a hole, but clawed their way out of it. The diversity in their offense is just so difficult to stop. Jared Goff played terribly for 2.5 quarters, but the Lions stayed after it and are just too much to handle. The Lions lean on the run game and eventually open up the passing game with play action. Eventually, they break your defense and make the plays necessary to win.”
The Lions had 3 three-and-outs and 3 interceptions en route to spotting the Texans a 23-7 halftime lead before roaring back to a 26-23 comeback victory in Week 10. RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery led the way in the second half, accounting for 82 yards and 1 touchdown combined to help get the Lions’ offense in gear, which set up play action for Jared Goff.
In the second half, Goff completed 3 out of 5 attempts on play action passes for 70 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception after completing just 1 of 6 passes for 20 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception before halftime. Most importantly, Goff led 3 scoring drives in the 4th quarter to complete the comeback. The Lions will look to continue their successful season in a Week 11 matchup with the Jaguars who have allowed 1,101 passing yards on play action (most) and 2,743 passing yards overall (3rd most) on the season
2. “ Christian McCaffrey looked a little sluggish, and I don’t enjoy saying that. This shouldn’t be surprising since it is his first game of the season, but it was a lot of taking what the defense was giving. I kept waiting for him to break one of those 5-yard runs into 8-10+ yarders, but it didn’t happen unless it was blocked up.”
After spending the first 9 weeks of the season nursing calf issues, 49ers’ RB Christian McCaffrey was a welcomed sight in the 49ers offense. While the running game was not up to par with previous seasons for CMC, his passing ability out of the backfield guided the 49ers to a 23-20 road victory over the Buccaneers. On the ground, McCaffrey totaled 39 yards on 13 attempts while failing to register a missed tackle forced and averaged just 1.46 YACO/ATT.
However, he accumulated 68 yards on 6 catches through the air, good for 19.3% of the team yards on a 68.3% route share. CMC did break a pair of tackles and racked up 35 YAC on those catches, so getting the ball in space will help while he ramps up his efficiency on the ground. Up next for the 49ers is a home matchup with the division rival Seahawks who rank bottom-10 in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
3. “Have we ever seen a team in Week 10 of the season that is still so out of sync? The Jets are still playing as if they are in the first couple games of the season, trying to find their groove. Every week we expect Aaron Rodgers and Gang Green to start connecting, and it is just not happening. We are constantly seeing missed throws or receivers running different routes than what Rodgers is expecting.”
“Win this game, and the Jets are back in the mix” seems to be a weekly theme that has consistently escaped them, as they fell to 3-7 following a 31-6 loss to the Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals entered with a beatable pass defense that allowed 2,333 pass yards (8th most) on the season and QB Aaron Rodgers responded with his lowest passing output of 2024 with just 151 yards and zero touchdowns. WRs Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson were credited with poor win rates of 8.6% and 5.7%, respectively, in Week 10, highlighting an issue of receivers not getting open on top of multiple miscommunications on routes.
The Jets’ offensive line continued to be a problem as Rodgers was pressured on 34.2% of his dropbacks, which was up from their 25.4% rate on the season. With the season hanging in the balance, the Jets get another favorable pass defense in the Colts, who have given up the 5th most passing yards (2,535) to opposing offenses this season.
4. “Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense was out of sync early in the first half. Hurts found himself dancing in the pocket a bit and looking to run when the first read wasn't available, and led to multiple sacks. The Eagles finally found their groove right before half when they targeted Caelen Carson on 4-5 consecutive routes and marched down the field for a touchdown. This continued some into the 3rd quarter before pulling their starters in the 4th quarter with the game out of reach.”
The Eagles improved to 7-2 on the season after running away with a 34-6 win in Dallas over the Cowboys. Up until the two-minute warning in the first half, the Eagles scored on just a short 17-yard drive while committing 2 turnovers before orchestrating an 84-yard touchdown drive and never looking back. QB Jalen Hurts faced a ridiculous 71.4% pressure rate in the first half, which kept the Cowboys in the game for a while before Hurts accounted for all 84 yards on the aforementioned touchdown drive just before halftime.
Although it feels like a struggle at times, the Eagles got healthy after their bye week and have ripped off five straight wins, with Hurts racking up 16 total touchdowns in that span. Perhaps the most important piece of this Eagles’ offense is the return of WR AJ Brown because of his ability to consistently get open, which is reflected by his excellent 25.3% win rate (2nd highest among WRs). Week 11 kicks off on Thursday Night Football with the Eagles fighting for the division lead against the Commanders, who added pro bowl CB Marshon Lattimore before the trade deadline last week.
5. “Denver’s offense flipped a switch this week versus the Chiefs, making a conscious effort to get some different players involved, such as Audric Estime and Marvin Mims. Estime looked pretty good as a runner, holding the ball “High and Tight” to protect himself from any fumbling concerns. I must say, I didn’t see more impressive explosiveness or speed compared to Javonte Williams. Javonte, in his limited touches, still looked good, but it is clear Denver’s patience with him may be wearing thin.”
The headlines coming out of the Week 10 matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs would have been all about the Broncos had it not been for a last-second blocked field goal by the Chiefs’ special teams. That said, QB Bo Nix went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a game where the Broncos had multiple positives to take with them moving forward. Nix played one the best games of his young career, throwing for 215 yards and 2 scores while turning in excellent rates of 13.4% CPOE, 88.9% ADJ COMP, and 83.3% catchable ball percentage against a stout pass defense.
But perhaps the bigger story is the return of rookie RB Audric Estime and his overtaking of the Broncos backfield. Estime out-snapped incumbent starter Javonte Williams 25-17 on his way to 53 yards on 14 attempts. To date, the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards on the season, so while Estime’s 3.79 YPC average is not mind-blowing, he pushed through contact to a healthy average of 2.21 YACO/ATT. We will see if HC Sean Payton officially hands over the starting role to Estime or not when the Broncos match up with the Falcons’ bottom-10 rush defense in Week 11.
6. “The Dolphins offense is back! OK, that’s getting carried away. Their yardage numbers were poor and their run game couldn’t get going, but they were at least able to hit a few big plays on scoring drives and it was enough to get the win. Tua had a pair of bad throws but he did spread the ball around and used the quick game to help create a little bit of a rhythm.”
A 23-15 road win over the Rams might just have been enough to save the Dolphins’ season. Well, maybe not save, but at least kept their season from being over for now. The return of QB Tua Tagovailoa is a huge boost to the offense and team in general, as the Dolphins have scored 77 points across his first three games back from his latest concussion. Although the offense has been posting better scoring totals, Tua is averaging just 224.0 passing yards with a lowly 5.5 aDOT and a 4.3% Deep Throw Percentage, all of which are significantly down from last season when he led the NFL in passing.
Of course, Tua should be given some leeway with his passing output, considering his stint on IR, but it is at least promising that the offense overall has improved. The Dolphins square off with the Raiders next week, and the Raiders have been pretty solid against the pass this season, ranking as a top-10 pass defense.
7. “The Bears offense was a brutal watch. The route concepts were off, as two receivers were too often occupying the same space, erasing any window to make a throw. It is possible that Caleb Williams was moving through his progressions too quickly, as he would look off one side of the field just as a player made a break in their route to get open. Pass catchers (notably DJ Moore and Rome Odunze) did struggle to get open. Credit to the Patriots DBs, who often looked like they knew exactly what was coming, and the pass rush for not giving Caleb much time to throw.”
The Bears’ offense hit rock bottom to the point of firing OC Shane Waldron following a home loss to the Patriots by a score of 19-3. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has led just 1 scoring drive since the Bears’ bye week in Week 7. Prior to the bye, Williams was making strides in CPOE, ADJ COMP, and catchable target percentage, but those categories have fallen off significantly since with Williams ranking 31st in all three categories over the last three games. Also in that span, Williams owns the 3rd highest pressure rate (42.3%), 5th longest time-to-throw (2.94), and the 4th highest aDOT (10.0).
Simply put, new OC Thomas Brown needs to simplify the offense to get the ball out of Williams’ hands so that he can make easier throws. The Bears face a gauntlet of opponents to finish out the season, as the Seahawks are the only opponent left on the schedule without a winning record.
8. “A bit of a throwback Josh Allen game. The offensive line kept Allen upright for the most part, but without Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper, Allen took control of the game and spread the ball wildly to multiple receivers. He used his legs to make up for missed throws and was still able to connect on a couple deep shots.”
QB Josh Allen was all over the place in the Bills 30-20 Week 10 win over the Colts, improving their record to 8-2. There were plenty of good plays from Allen, 280 passing yards — including 2 deep completions for 78 yards — along with 50 rushing yards and a touchdown. There were also plenty of bad plays, -8.4 % CPOE, 67.6% ADJ COMP, 54.1% ACC%, and 5.4% TWT% with 2 interceptions.
All told, it highlights how, without his top playmakers in WRs Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper, Allen can have a tendency to force the issue and to try and make a play, but overall he makes enough plays to lead the Bills to a win. For the season, Allen is still very much in the MVP conversation as he has cut down on his turnover-worthy throws, registering just a 2.7% TWT%. Week 11 brings us the premier matchup of the NFL season to date as the Bills host the Chiefs in a battle atop the AFC standings.
Bonus Observations
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard — Hubbard looked like the guy who earned his contract extension, breaking tackles and gaining extra yards on almost every touch. Hubbard signed a 4-year, $33.2M contract prior to Week 11 and delivered in a major way in his first game after the contract by pacing the NFL with 153 rushing yards. Now up to 818 rushing yards (3rd most), Hubbard sports an excellent 2.80 YACO/ATT.
Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling — MVS had the big plays while none of the other WRs stepped up and established themselves as QB Derek Carr’s next potential “go-to guy” with the absence of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. RB Alvin Kamara led the Saints in targets and will likely continue to vacuum up looks in the passing game, but for Saints’ WRs, MVS could very well be Carr’s main target. MVS caught all three targets for 109 yards and 2 scores while eating up a huge 52.6% Air Yards Share.
Cowboys QB Cooper Rush — Rush may have the worst arm strength of any NFL QB in recent memory. There is zero velocity on the ball, even on short hitch routes, but especially on deeper passes. The Cowboys’ first game without starting QB Dak Prescott went about as poorly as could have been expected as Rush completed 13 of 23 passes for just 45 yards, good for a YPA of just 1.96, easily the lowest in any game this season.
