2023 Week 5 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 5 DFS slate.

Tennessee Titans (+1.0) @ Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 42.5)

Trends:

• Derrick Henry has averaged 24.5 FPG in wins but just 14.2 FPG in losses since 2019. Tennessee’s implied win probability this week is ~50%.

• Henry has a +0.16 correlation with the Tennessee defense. That’s an easy stack if you think the Titans roll.

• Treylon Burks missed last week’s game due to a knee injury. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine led the team with a 77% route share and 13.1 XFP, and he tied DeAndre Hopkins for the team lead with 6 targets. He’s $3,500 on DraftKings this week.

• Anthony Richardson has a great chance to finish as fantasy’s QB1…

• Richardson’s 2.6 rush attempts per quarter put him on pace for 158 rush attempts this season – the 5th-most ever by a QB.

• The 0.8 fantasy points per dropback that Richardson has averaged this year would be easily the best mark by a QB since 2019 Lamar Jackson (0.91 fantasy points per dropback).

• Jonathan Taylor is back at practice. I’m not sure if he plays this week, but if he does, avoid playing him in lineups with Anthony Richardson. So far this season, Richardson has a -0.75 correlation with his starting RB’s production.

• Josh Downs has averaged 9.1 XFP/G in his contests with Anthony Richardson. He’s still a moderately compelling stacking partner at just $3,700 on DraftKings.

• Kylen Granson’s route share has fallen in four consecutive weeks, down to 47% in Week 4. Andrew Ogletree emerged (a bit) last week, earning 4 targets on 7 routes. I’m not sure any of these Indianapolis TEs are playable this week.

Matchups:

• The Titans have a top-2 run defense in the NFL. They rank as the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted defense for opposing RBs (-4.2) and are allowing a league-low 2.9 YPC.

• But the Titans are a major pass funnel. They are the league’s 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+12.0 FPG). The Colts' passing attack should crush this spot.

• The Colts are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+11.1 FPG). Maybe this is the week to play DeAndre Hopkins?

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) @ New England Patriots (O/U: 40.5)

Trends:

• Derek Carr has done a poor job delivering highly accurate throws this year – ranking 31st of 36 qualifiers. He’s also PFF’s 28th-highest-graded QB of 36 qualifiers.

• Alvin Kamara has just one game under his belt, but he earned a 75% snap share, 25.9 XFP (2nd-most by a RB this week), and an absurd 14 targets (16th-most by a RB since 2010).

• Kamara wasn’t efficient – just 2 missed tackles forced and 84 total yards on 24 touches – but his volume was elite. And volume is king for RBs.

• Kamara’s $6,300 DraftKings salary is the 2nd-cheapest he’s been since Week 9 of 2017. That was 2,160 days ago.

• Kamara is the best value on the slate – if you go by XFP/G per $ of DraftKings salary (4.1X).

• Chris Olave ranks 10th among WRs in XFP/G (17.8), but just 29th in FPG (13.4). I still think big games will come – Olave’s current workload is 27% better than his workload last season.

• There were reports Ezekiel Elliott would get ‘starter reps’ ahead of New England’s Week 4 game. Rhamondre Stevenson still led the way, claiming 64% of backfield XFP – roughly in line with his usage in the first three weeks of the year.

• Hunter Henry (74%) and DeVante Parker (80%) were the only players with full-time route shares for New England last week. Both players are reasonably priced on DraftKings and are, arguably, the only viable DFS options on the New England side this week.

Matchups:

• New England is running man coverage at a 40% rate (2nd-highest). Derek Carr has checked the ball down against man coverage at the league’s 2nd-highest rate this year (13%), and he still ranks top-3 in that metric if we exclude the checkdown party that was Week 4. Kamara should get fed.

• But even if Kamara does get fed, he will likely be inefficient. New England has been the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs this year (-9.1 FPG).

Carolina Panthers (+9.0) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 45.0)

Trends:

• Chuba Hubbard earned his highest snap share of the year in Week 4 (54%), at least in part thanks to Miles Sanders entering this game with a groin injury.

• If Sanders can get healthy, he’s a bit tempting at $5,200 on DraftKings. He averaged 17.6 XFP/G in his first three games (RB8 over that stretch), while tying for the positional lead in targets (18).

• If we exclude Week 1, Adam Thielen is averaging 18.1 XFP/G. That would rank 10th-best over the full season. Thielen is priced as the WR22 ($5,100) on DraftKings this week.

• Jared Goff is averaging +9.0 more FPG at home (24.0) than on the road (15.0) since the start of last season. He’s scored over 15.0 fantasy points on the road once, but fallen under 15.0 fantasy points at home once. Effectively, he’s a high-end QB1 at home and a low-end QB2 on the road.

• David Montgomery is averaging an absurd 18.0 XFP/G in his three games this season. He’s earned at least 70% of snaps in his two full healthy games. Last season, Jamaal Williams averaged 12.9 XFP/G, and exceeded a 50% snap share twice.

• The home/road splits for Amon-Ra St. Brown are similarly dramatic. St. Brown has averaged 20.5 FPG at home, but just 13.4 FPG on the road since last year.

• Sam LaPorta is 4th in XFP/G (12.2), 11th in route share (75%), and 2nd in FPG (16.0) over the last two weeks. But he ranks 26th among TEs in red zone usage this year (1.4 XFP/G inside the 20), and he’s been priced up to $5,000 on DraftKings.

Matchups:

• Carolina ranks as the 8th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.5 FPG), and the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-6.1 FPG).

• But the Panthers rank as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+5.7 FPG). Detroit will likely lean in David Montgomery this week.

• The Lions are the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-10.0 FPG), but one of the three softest matchups for opposing slot WRs (+7.0 FPG). A positive for Adam Thielen.

Houston Texans (+2.0) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 41.5)

Trends:

• The 303.0 passing YPG CJ Stroud is averaging would set the rookie QB record if maintained for a full season. Houston clearly trusts Stroud, given their positive PROE this year.

• Stroud already ranks 20th all-time in games with 20 or more fantasy points (3) among rookie QBs. The all-time record is 10, and Stroud is on pace for 12.

• No rookie QB with over 200 pass attempts has thrown for fewer than 4 interceptions. Stroud has 151 attempts with no picks. Of the 19 QBs this season with over 125 pass attempts, Stroud is the only one without an interception. He’s playing incredibly well.

• All three Texans’ WRs – Nico Collins ($5,600), Tank Dell ($4,800), and Robert Woods ($4,000) – are excellent DraftKings values this week.

• Collins leads all players in YPRR (4.70) if you exclude busted coverages.

• If we exclude Houston’s Week 3 rout of Jacksonville, Nico Collins is averaging 18.1 XFP/G – which would rank 10th-best among all WRs this year.

• Interestingly, Robert Woods (11.8 XFP/G) has seen nearly identical usage to Tank Dell (12.0 XFP/G) since Dell joined the starting lineup. And the matchup with Atlanta looks advantageous for Woods (more below).

• Desmond Ridder is the least accurate QB in football right now.

• Atlanta (85) has the fewest number of catchable targets this season. A 25% target share on the Rams (the team with the most catchable targets) has resulted in 48% more catchable targets relative to a 25% target share on the Falcons.

• There are only three RBs on this slate with a price tag over $7,000, and Saquon Barkley (ankle) may not play. Your options are severely limited if you want to pay up.

• Bijan Robinson ($7,700) is one of those RBs. Among the 49 RBs with at least 25 touches, Robinson ranks 11th in missed tackles forced per touch (0.38), 3rd in YFS per touch (6.3), and 9th in explosive play percentage (7%). He draws an awesome matchup this week (more below).

• Kyle Pitts is a top-5 usage-based DFS value this week (3.48X), and he’s the cheapest he’s ever been on DraftKings at $3,300. He becomes a real value at some point – and we may already be there.

Matchups:

• The Texans are the league’s 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.0 FPG), after ranking as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs last year. The Texans are also allowing the 5th-highest target share (20%) to opposing players out of the backfield. This is an ideal spot for Bijan Robinson – especially when we factor in Houston’s top-10 pass defense.

• The Falcons have allowed the league’s 3rd-highest slot target rate (36%) and the 9th-most receiving YPG to opposing slot players (77.8), while running man coverage at the league’s 10th-highest rate (32%). Robert Woods – on top of being the team’s primary slot threat – has also logged the 2nd-most targets (6, compared to 3 for Tank Dell) against man coverage.

Baltimore Ravens (-4.0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 38.5)

Trends:

• We want to play Lamar Jackson as a favorite – he averages +5.4 more FPG as a favorite (24.9) than as an underdog (19.5) since 2021.

• There is an argument to be made for Gus Edwards ($5,000) as a salary-saving RB option. He earned a 69% snap share, 54% route share, and 10.0 XFP in Week 4, despite Justice Hill being active. All of those marks were season highs for Edwards.

• Zay Flowers (11) has dominated first-read targets over the last two weeks. Mark Andrews is the next closest, with just 6 first-read targets.

• That said, Andrews is still quite tempting at a $5,500 price tag. That’s $1,000 cheaper than his average salary last year.

• Jaylen Warren is moderately interesting at $4,900 if you think Baltimore rolls in this game. He averages 11.2 XFP/G in the Steelers' three losses (with a season-high 13.6 XFP in Week 4). That ranks 20th among slate-eligible RBs, presenting (very modest) value relative to Warren’s RB27 price tag.

• Calvin Austin ($3,500) is tied for the team lead in first-read targets (11) over the last two weeks. His 10.0 XFP/G over that stretch is just 2.9 XFP/G less than George Pickens (12.9 XFP/G), but Austin is $1,700 cheaper this week.

Matchups:

• Lamar Jackson averaged 0.61 fantasy points per dropback against man coverage last season, compared to 0.33 against zone coverage. The Steelers have run man coverage at the league’s 8th-highest rate (33%).

• The Steelers are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+12.7 FPG).

• The Ravens are the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-7.2 FPG) and opposing TEs (-5.7).

New York Giants (+10.5) @ Miami Dolphins (O/U: 49.0)

Trends:

• An unpressured dropback is worth 63% more fantasy points than a pressured dropback. Daniel Jones has been pressured on 46% of his dropbacks, tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL.

• Jones hasn’t been productive as a big underdog – averaging just 14.7 FPG in games where New York was an underdog by 7.0 points or more.

• Wan’Dale Robinson logged a 22% route share in his first game back from a torn ACL in Week 3. In Week 4, his route share jumped to 61%. His 0.24 TPRR last year would’ve bested WRs like Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and Jaylen Waddle. Theoretically, Robinson’s target volume would be elite with a full-time route share. And even if he isn’t full-time in Week 5, he’s only $3,000 on DraftKings. Robinson is one of the top values of the slate.

• Darren Waller is 11th among TEs in XFP/G (9.5). He’s the TE4 by DraftKings salary this week. #NotGood

• It’s impossible to be more efficient than De’Von Achane ($6,100). Among the 64 players with at least 25 touches, Achane ranks 1st in yards after contact per touch (5.8), 1st in YFS per touch (10.3, next-closest is 6.5), 1st in explosive play% (14%), and 1st in missed tackles forced per touch (0.63).

• So far, a single Achane touch is worth as many fantasy points as 2.3 Christian McCaffrey touches, 3.0 Tony Pollard touches, or 4.3 Dameon Pierce touches.

• And his usage saw a notable uptick in Week 4. Achane’s 66% snap share and 61% route share is a massive improvement on the 42% snap share and 32% route share he earned in Miami’s Week 3 rout of Denver.

• Tyreek Hill averages just 13.3 DraftKings FPG (high of 21.9) against divisional opponents since joining Miami. But outside of the division, Hill averages an absurd 28.9 DraftKings FPG, scoring over 30.0 DraftKings points 50% of the time.

• Durham Smythe averages a 77% route share and 8.5 XFP/G in his three healthy games. Those marks rank 7th-best and 14th-best among all TEs. Smythe is the TE18 by DraftKings salary ($3,000) on a 10-game slate.

Matchups:

• Miami has been the single softest schedule-adjusted matchup for TEs from slot or out-wide alignments (+5.2 FPG). Darren Waller has run 75% of his routes from those alignments.

• The Giants are blitzing and running man coverage at top-3 rates this season. Last year, Tyreek Hill ranked top-4 in YPRR against the blitz (4.2) and against man coverage (3.6) of 131 qualifiers. This is arguably the perfect matchup for Hill.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 50.5)

Trends:

• Jalen Hurts gets a slight boost in these scripts. He’s averaged 27.5 FPG since 2021 as a favorite in games with a total of 48.0, compared to 24.7 FPG in all other games.

• D’Andre Swift has earned 71% of the Eagles’ backfield XFP since Week 2, averaging 16.9 XFP/G. Over the full season, that would rank as the 9th-best usage among RBs with multiple games played.

• Dallas Goedert’s usage is down from 9.8 XFP/G last season (TE13), to 7.5 XFP/G this season (TE17).

• No team has more catchable targets than the Rams (122). That means a 25% target share in Los Angeles is worth more than a 25% target share anywhere else.

• Kyren Williams is averaging an 83% snap share (2nd-best among slate-eligible RBs), 5.5 targets per game (3rd-best), and 19.8 XFP/G (2nd-best). So why is he priced as the RB5 at just $6,700? Your guess is as good as mine.

• In 2017 and 2018, Todd Gurley averaged 20.2 XFP/G, and his average salary was $8,709. Effectively, we getting peak Todd Gurley usage for a $2,000 salary discount. Even if you think Williams is notably worse than peak Gurley (which I do), that’s an absurd discount relative to his current usage.

• Puka Nacua’s target share is 30%. But, Cooper Kupp (hamstring) could return this week. So what does that mean for fantasy?

• I’m not sure it’s a big downgrade for Nacua. He’s run 70% of his routes from the outside. Cooper Kupp has run ~65% of his routes from the slot over his career. These two play fundamentally different roles within the Rams offense.

• Kupp (25.9 FPG) and Robert Woods (15.2 FPG) combined for 40.1 FPG during Kupp’s all-time great 2021 season. I’d imagine Kupp and Nacua could put up similar numbers but with a much closer split in production.

Matchups:

• The Rams have been the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (-8.3 FPG).

• The Eagles are one of the four softest schedule-adjusted matchups for both opposing QBs (+5.4 FPG) and opposing WRs (+9.1 FPG) — a solid spot for the Rams passing attack.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0) @ Arizona Cardinals (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

• Joe Burrow (36) has the same number of throws 10 or more yards downfield as Desmond Ridder. He has just 10 throws of 20 or more yards downfield – the 6th-fewest of any QB to play four games. He averaged 32% more deep throws per game last season.

• Joe Mixon averages 19.7 FPG in wins, but just 13.3 FPG in losses since 2019. He’s had at least 15 touches in every game this season. The Bengals implied win probability this week is 62%.

• Mixon’s $6,400 DraftKings salary this week is the cheapest he’s been since Week 6 of 2021. That was 718 days ago.

• Ja’Marr Chase is seeing strong usage (18.3 XFP/G), but his production (14.4 FPG) hasn’t kept up. This will change. Chase exceeded his sophomore year usage by +0.9 FPG, despite playing through a hairline hip fracture. And he exceeded his rookie year usage by +3.7 FPG. If Chase were to reclaim his rookie-year efficiency (and why wouldn’t he once Burrow returns to form), we could loosely project him for 23.0 FPG.

• Tee Higgins (26%) is well behind Chase (36%) in first-read target share.

• Marquise Brown averages the 8th-most XFP/G (16.0) among slate-eligible WRs. He’s an obvious usage-based value relative to his WR23 DraftKings price tag ($5,000).

• Zach Ertz (4.0X) is easily the top usage-based DFS value at the TE position this week.

• Among TEs, Ertz ranks 4th in route share (80%), 2nd in targets (30), 3rd in air yards share (23%), and 2nd in XFP/G (14.0). His TE11 price tag on both sites looks absurd relative to the top-5 usage he’s seeing. Sure, he’s been very inefficient (8.4 FPG) – but even that ranks 7th-best among slate-eligible TEs.

Matchups:

• The Bengals' defense has allowed the 4th-lowest target rate to outside WRs (36%) this season (where Marquise Brown runs 81% of his routes). That said, the Bengals haven’t been efficient against outside pass catchers, giving up the 2nd-most YPR (17.4) and the 8th-highest YPRR (2.35). Maybe Cincinnati can reduce Brown’s raw volume, but he could make up for it with efficiency.

• The Bengals are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+6.6 FPG). A solid matchup for the hyper-inefficient Ertz.

• Arizona is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+7.8 FPG). Maybe this is the game for Burrow.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.0) @ Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 52.5)

Trends:

• Patrick Mahomes has averaged 31.0 FPG in his 10 dome games since 2020. That’s a 35% improvement over his career baseline FPG.

• Isiah Pacheco earned a 65% snap share and 73% of backfield XFP in Week 4. Both of those marks were season highs. Pacheco has averaged 18.5 XFP/G over the last two weeks – that would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible RBs over the full season. His $5,700 (RB15) price tag presents compelling value if this usage continues.

• Rashee Rice’s route share by week: 11% (Week 1), 24% (Week 2), 46% (Week 3), 49% (Week 4). He is worth tournament exposure at just $3,600 on DraftKings if this uptrend continues, as he’s proven to be an elite target earner when on the field.

• Over the last three seasons, Travis Kelce has averaged 18.2 DraftKings FPG, but that jumps to 22.8 DraftKings FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher. In other words, the greatest fantasy TE of all time is 25% better in high-total games, like the one he’s faced with this week.

• Kelce ($7,600) is at his 4th-cheapest DraftKings price since Week 1 of 2022.

• Minnesota said they would ride the ‘hot hand’ at RB ahead of their Week 4 contest. The result? Alexander Mattison still led the way (18 opportunities), but he logged his lowest snap% (66%) of the season. The 17.6 XFP/G he’s averaging at a $5,700 DraftKings salary makes him a compelling usage-based value. But be aware there is a (likely minor) risk they ‘rug pull’ his usage and get Cam Akers more involved over the next few weeks.

• A $9,400 price tag might seem too high – even for a player of Justin Jefferson’s caliber. But he’s averaging 23.3 XFP/G (13% better usage than 2021 Cooper Kupp).

• Jordan Addison feels like an ideal ‘flop-lag’ candidate. He dropped a zero in Week 4 but earned 18.3 XFP (a mid-range WR1 workload) in Week 3. Our favorite metric (XFP) suggests he’s due for positive regression based on the last two weeks.

• TJ Hockenson has averaged 19.4 FPG (TE1) in home games with a total over 48.0 since the start of last season.

Matchups:

• The Vikings are the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs this season (+10.2 FPG). It’s Rashee Rice season.

• Kansas City has been the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted defense for opposing RBs this year (-5.2 FPG).

New York Jets (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 43.0)

Trends:

• Zach Wilson is just $4,900 this week, and I’d expect him to carry (at least) moderate ownership thanks to his dirt-cheap salary and this matchup (more below).

• Somewhat surprisingly, Wilson has exceeded 20.0 DraftKings points (4X his current DK salary) in 24% of his 25 career starts. But this is Zach Wilson we are talking about – the floor is somewhere in the center of the earth.

• Breece Hall is no longer on a ‘pitch count’, but I wouldn’t expect true bell cow usage this week. He’s been one of the league’s best rushers thus far, ranking 3rd in explosive rush% (9%), 2nd in YPC (6.6), and 2nd in yards after contact per attempt (5.3) of 44 qualifying RBs.

• Hall is a tempting play at a $5,400 price tag. But he probably needs to claim 80% of backfield XFP this week (which is probably impossible this week) in order to log a top-10 workload at the position. That said, the matchup couldn’t be much better (more below).

• Javonte Williams (hip) looks questionable this week. If Williams sits, Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000) is in play as he earned 62% of backfield XFP sans Williams last week.

• The 17.5 XFP/G that Courtland Sutton has averaged since Week 3 would rank 7th-best among slate-eligible WRs over the full season. He’s a usage-based value relative to his WR18 DraftKings price ($5,400).

• Marvin Mims continues to be the most under-utilized skill player in the NFL. Mims was chalk last week (~10% owned) amid reports he would see a bigger workload. That didn’t materialize – but that also means Mims won’t carry any ownership this week.

Matchups:

• Denver ranks as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for both opposing QBs (+11.3 FPG) and RBs (+17.4 FPG). Arguably the perfect matchup for Zach Wilson and Breece Hall.

• The Broncos also rank as the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+8.8 FPG), so it’s a good spot for Garrett Wilson too.

• The Jets are the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-4.6 FPG), and the 3rd-toughest for opposing WRs (-10.4 FPG). New York’s pass defense remains elite.