2023 Week 1 DFS Coverage Shells

Getting started with my first full NFL season as part of the Fantasy Points team, I'm excited to share my research on coverage matchups for your intricate fantasy football, DFS, and/or betting needs. This article will go over defensive schemes from the 2022 NFL season and primarily cover my favorite matchups and fades for Week 1 of the Sunday/MNF slate of DFS.

If you’re interested in more of the “why” as you continue on, this coverage glossary might be your best friend. This is a piece I continually use myself, and highly recommend you do the same throughout this football/DFS season.

I will be taking the reins over much of what Wes Huber did for Fantasy Points over previous seasons — where things will slightly differ is breaking up coverage into single/two-high looks. I am committing to this going forward because this sport is inherently composed of small samples with plenty of moving parts. Advantageous/disadvantageous matchups against individual coverage schemes are no exception, so looking at a broader lens, like shells, may give us a more accurate depiction of things.

Defenses have to do many things nowadays to combat modern offenses, such as disguising formations pre/post snap and moving defenders around, which has made coverages less “static.”

Isolating specific looks, like “Receiver A when he faces Cover 3” is nice when you’ve got a large enough sample, but that’s often not the case. Blending specific coverages based on their shared themes, like single vs. two-high looks, helps point us in the right direction while giving us the benefit of a more robust sample.

All stats in this article are from the Fantasy Points Data Suite, unless otherwise noted

2022 Defenses

Here we have defensive coverages on dropback pass plays last season, providing us with a general idea of what teams typically deploy from a macro perspective.

It’s important to note that this can fluctuate wildly, depending on both the roster and coaching turnover between 2022 and this season. For example, you might notice that the Dolphins ran a lot of man coverage, but Vic Fangio is their new defensive coordinator in 2023 (zone/two-high shell background). Don't be worried — I'll do my best to account for this sort of complexity in my analysis further down below.

Rams @ Seahawks

If it wasn’t for the fact that WR Cooper Kupp won’t play in Week 1, the Rams might have been in for a barnburner of a season opener. At least, that’s very likely to be the case when they’re out on defense. They face Seattle this week and head into 2023 featuring the same DC in Raheem Morris. This is important to note since their defensive foundation shouldn’t deviate much, albeit with a less experienced unit and the inherent unknowns of a new season.

LA ran the highest rate of Cover 3 in the NFL last season (48%) and finished top-5 in usage of single-high looks at 58%.

Seattle WRs are interesting in this one. Let’s just put aside rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba for now, since Pete Carroll already stated he doesn’t plan to alter their rate of 12 personnel and the slot-predominant JSN is coming off an alarmingly recent wrist operation.

Both D.K. Metcalf (2.55 YPRR) and Tyler Lockett (2.33) smashed single-high looks last year, but when you isolate for Cover 3, a component of single-high, their splits deviate – Metcalf (1.99 YPRR) struggled against Cover 3 in comparison to (2.96). Last season against the Rams, Metcalf and Lockett combined for 24/349/3 on 35 targets against the Rams, with Lockett scoring 56% of those fantasy points. And Metcalf is also priced higher on DraftKings ($7,000). So all of this rides in favor of Lockett ($6,700 on DK) as a value play, right?

That’s where Jalen Ramsey factors in. The former Rams defensive back shadowed Metcalf on 48/72 of the WR’s routes in two games against one another last season (67%). Metcalf averaged 0.29 YPRR vs. Ramsey and 4.00 YPRR (!) against any other defender.

Seattle is projected as a Top 5 scoring offense in Week 1, and you shouldn’t overthink Metcalf’s relatively high asking price against this Rams unit.

Eagles @ Patriots

The defending NFC champions in Philadelphia head to Foxborough to take on Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots this Sunday.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is fresh off his contract extension and looks to celebrate in what is a historically favorable matchup for QBs of his hyper-mobile skillset.

I’ve received a few questions from DFS players looking to pick a Jalen Hurts stacking option between WRs A.J. Brown ($7,600 on DraftKings) and DeVonta Smith ($7,200), and similar to the Seahawks’ duo, there are factors that favor each of the Eagles in different ways.

Brown and Smith are in for a schematically intriguing matchup against defensive guru Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots’ defense. In 2022, New England ran the second-highest rate of single-high coverage while allowing the second-lowest YPA (6.8).

A notable feature within this defensive look for NE was the frequency in which opposing offenses passed downfield. The Patriots allowed the highest deep pass rate in single-high coverage last year at 18%.

Single-high is an aggressive style of defense where there’s essentially one deep defender on an island across the middle of the field. Not only does this put a lot of stress on that DB, but also the coverage unit as a whole on deep shots downfield.

And when you think of home-run hitters within this Philly offense, you should immediately think of Brown, and not Smith.

Among all WRs with 250+ routes against single-high looks last season, Brown finished:

• 1st in YPR (19.9)

• 2nd in YPT (11.2)

• 2nd in YPRR (3.33)

• 4th in FP/RR (0.60) and AY share (46%)

We all know the Patriots create pressure and are effective in doing so. That’s where Smith differentiates himself fBrown besides deep targets, acting as more of a safety blanket underneath (perhaps best evident by this stat) when Hurts faces some heat in the pocket.

Smith is still a good play if you’re fading this Eagles offense post-Shane Steichen and/or are hesitant about their matchup in the trenches. However, given the Eagles’ overall strength up front in pass protection, I do think Brown is the alpha of these two receivers in Week 1.

49ers @ Steelers

It’s funny how some of the league’s most innovative play callers and potent offenses make it a weekly rendition of musical chairs with their skill players’ usage.

49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has been no stranger to this. What we do know is that Brock Purdy is the team’s QB1, Christian McCaffrey is RB1, and George Kittle is their TE1.

Welcome to another season of “Should I start Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel?”

In years past, it’s been standard procedure to go with Aiyuk ($4,900 on DK) in matchups featuring a heavier dose of man coverage and Samuel ($5,500) against zone. On Sunday, the 49ers travel to Pittsburgh to face Mike Tomlin and a Steelers defense that ranked top-5 in man coverage usage last season (36%).

Aiyuk ranked 11th in fantasy points per route run against man in 2022 (0.63), while Samuel placed 56th (0.30). Circling back to my earlier notes, however, in this sport, it is impossible to isolate externalities around a player’s situation/usage completely. Kittle’s injury certainly muddied the waters, and we can conversely say that the team favored Samuel in times when Kittle was a spectator from the sideline. (And that this was also true of Kittle when Samuel was out.)

Pittsburgh blitzed at the sixth-highest rate last season. From the time Purdy took over full-time in Week 13 and through the rest of the regular season, he led the NFL in blitz rate faced among QBs with 150+ base dropbacks (37%). Within this time and split, Kittle led San Francisco pass catchers with a 37% target share, while Samuel placed second at 22% and Aiyuk third at 19%.

Pittsburgh should be able to create pressure given their inherent strengths and projected neutral game script, and that’s where Aiyuk takes the cake (on a larger sample no less). From Weeks 13-18 he commanded a team-high 30% target share on pressured dropbacks and had the second most receptions among all NFL wideouts (10).

Following Christian McCaffrey’s arrival in Week 7, Aiyuk led the 49ers in:

• Targets (76)

• First read target share (29%)

• Yards market share (26%)

• YPRR (2.19)

• Receiving YPG (63.2)

Meanwhile, Samuel’s first read target share dropped from 27% to 20%, his slot TPRR dipped from 0.31 to 0.17, and his backfield TPRR declined from 0.50 to 0.28.

Add it all up, and I do give a very strong lean towards Aiyuk in Week 1.

Bengals @ Browns

Another interesting matchup is an AFC North showdown between the Cleveland Browns and visiting Cincinnati Bengals.

Jacoby Brissett started the first matchup between these teams last year while Deshaun Watson was serving his suspension (CLE won 32-13). Watson then took over for their final matchup in Week 14 (CIN won 23-10).

Brissett/Watson differ stylistically, and the looks given by opposing defenses last season somewhat reflected this:

• Brissett faced single-high coverage on 57% of his dropbacks (Watson: 39%)

• Brissett vs Cover 1: 27% of DBs (Watson: 11%)

• Brissett vs Cover 3: 30% of DBs (Watson 28%)

• Brissett vs Man: 35% of DBs (Watson: 25%)

• Brissett vs Two-high: 33% of DBs (Watson: 40%)

• Brissett vs Cover 4: 13% of DBs (Watson: 21%)

Watson joined the (brand new) offense in Week 13 after nearly two years away from the sport, so the degree of certainty in which defenses may gameplan him similarly/differently in 2023 remains to be seen. However, if he ends up back (or close) to what he exhibited earlier on in his career, Watson’s legs/play-making abilities are absent in Brissett’s game and could impact the Cleveland pass catchers.

So, which WR should you play in DFS when both are so badly mispriced – Amari Cooper ($5,800 on DK) or Elijah Moore ($3,800)?

Cooper is undoubtedly Cleveland’s WR1, but his degree of dominance within the offense after a QB change, combined with the acquisition of slot/gadget receiver Elijah Moore is likely the reason you’re reading this. Here are a few Cooper splits with Brissett vs. Watson under center last season.

Stat	Cooper with Brissett	Cooper with Watson
Targets/game	8.3	6.2
YPRR	2.18	2.10
First-read share	34%	28%
Catchable Target	79%	68%
Team TD Share	58%	29%

Cooper’s volume took a slight hit, but his efficiency and ownership of the receiving room didn’t falter much from the change in guard. That drop in touchdown share isn’t ideal, however. Cooper led the team in end zone targets within each split, but with Watson under center, he caught 0/7 of his end zone targets.

Chalk it up to volatility or poor accuracy from Deshaun? Or an impending regression to the mean? Regardless, Cooper is still seeing all the green flags a WR1 needs every week for production.

The Bengals were pretty diverse on defense schematically. This benefits more of an all-around, volume-certainty pass catcher in DFS when we begin to consider their range of outcomes.

Let’s say the Bengals roll out a heavy dose of two-high shells. Cooper averaged 1.97 YPRR vs. two-high last season, and Moore averaged 1.52, where he was far more effective. This would be a good opportunity for Moore, given his presumed home in the slot, but it doesn’t necessarily swing expectations for Amari.

Now let’s say the Bengals deploy more single-high coverage. History tells us that’s a green flag for Cooper (2.59 YPRR) and a red flag for Moore (0.68 YPRR).

This matchup probably isn’t an eruption spot for Browns pass catchers, but they shouldn’t be automatically written off your draft boards, given their current salaries. And if I had to pick one this week, I’d take Moore at the site minimum over on DraftKings.

Raiders @ Broncos

The Sean Payton era begins this Sunday at Mile High against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders.

Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy ($6,600) suffered a hamstring injury and was limited in practice this week, so his status for Week 1 remains unclear. However, whether he does or doesn’t play, there are some interesting matchups to exploit against this bottom-3 Raiders secondary potentially.

Las Vegas ran the third-highest rate of man coverage last year and finished Top 2 in deploying Cover 1 (30%). Jeudy finished with an absurd 5.0+ YPRR vs. Cover 1 last season (best in the NFL) and dialed a 1.85 YPRR against everything else. Unsurprisingly, against man coverage, Jeudy led the league in YPRR (4.31) and placed Top 3 in fantasy points per route (0.80).

If he suits up and isn’t limited in any capacity, Jeudy is the golden goose of DFS matchup strategy. Not to mention the Broncos’ WR room is pretty thin outside Courtland Sutton ($5,200) and rookie Marvin Mims ($3,000).

Both Sutton/Mims are solid plays in general, but they become even more valuable if Jeudy does sit this one out. Sutton led all Broncos receivers with 14 targets and a 36% first-read target share against the Raiders last season. Overall against man coverage, Sutton also led the team in targets and also sported a dominant 40% first read target share.

In this matchup, all appear to be strong plays in DFS. It’s just difficult for me to pick a favorite until we get more word on Jeudy’s status.

Quick Hits

• New Panthers DC Ejiro Evero ran Cover 3 at the league’s 2nd-highest rate with the Broncos last year (44.2%). Desmond Ridder faced Cover 3 on 45.9% of his dropbacks last year, and this was by far his best coverage shell. Against Cover 3, he earned a 104.3 passer rating. Against all other coverage shells, that dropped to just 73.1.

• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence thrives when defenses go into man coverage. In 2022, Lawrence ranked 3rd in passer rating against man coverage (113.5). Against zone coverage, his passer rating dropped to just 85.8 (24th). Luckily for him, Gus Bradley’s Colts defense played man coverage at the 8th-highest rate in the league last season (29.8%).

• With Vic Fangio arriving in Miami, we can expect the Dolphins to run a high rate of Cover 4 and Cover 6. Against Cover 4, Justin Herbert was very effective (112.9 passer rating), but he badly struggled against Cover 6 (75.0 passer rating). Against Fangio’s Broncos (2020-2021), Herbert averaged just 16.2 FPG. In all other games over this span, Herbert averaged 19.9 FPG.

• Russell Wilson’s 76.6 passer rating against Cover 1, ranked 4th-worst of 31 qualifying QBs last year. Las Vegas played Cover 1 at the 2nd-highest rate in the league last year (29.7%). And if that’s not bad enough, it’s looking like Jerry Jeudy – the undisputed King of Cover 1 – could sit out this week, or be limited to a snap count.

• Cover 4 was Robert Saleh’s primary coverage shell last season, and he ran it at the highest rate in the league (32.6%). Josh Allen badly struggled against Cover 4 last year, earning a passer rating of just 79.4 (0.37 FP/DB). Against all other coverage shells, he earned a passer rating of 93.6 (0.48 FP/DB).

• The Los Angeles Chargers primarily run Cover 1 and Cover 3, which account for 53.6% of their snaps. Last season Tyreek Hill averaged 3.84 YPRR against Cover 1 and Cover 3. Against all other coverage shells, he averaged 3.20 YPRR (1st). Basically, Hill is really freaking good. But he’s especially good against the two coverage shells he’ll be seeing most often this week.

• Shoutout to Derek Brown (Fantasy Pros) and Jacob Gibbs (CBS Fantasy) for this one – CeeDee Lamb destroyed the Giants last year (37.7% target share, 3.39 YPRR), and Wink Martindale’s blitz-happy man-heavy scheme may be a big reason why: