DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.
But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 4 DFS slate.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) @ Houston Texans (O/U: 44.5)
Trends:
Last season Austin Ekeler had the 6th-most carries inside the 10-yard line. This season, Ekeler has zero carries inside the 10. Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel both have one.
The Chargers being favored is certainly good news for Ekeker, who has averaged +3.1 more FPG in wins (21.1) than losses (18.0).
Keenan Allen is back at practice this week, but hamstring injuries are notoriously finicky. Both Mike Williams and Josh Palmer will benefit massively if Allen sits.
Since 2017, Williams averages 19.1 FPG in games without Allen, compared to just 10.3 FPG in games with Allen.
Josh Palmer averages 15.5 FPG in his three career games sans Allen, compared to just 5.3 FPG with Allen in the lineup.
Dameon Pierce has handled 92% of backfield carries and earned 41% of backfield routes over the last two weeks.
The Texans playing from behind is certainly good news for Brandin Cooks, who averages 17.9 FPG (~WR5) in games HOU has lost by 3.0-points or more, compared to 13.8 FPG outside of that split. Cooks is the WR20 (by salary) on DraftKings, and the WR21 on Fanduel.
Matchups:
The Chargers are allowing the 7th-most FPG to opposing RBs this year (26.4). Last season, LAC gave up the 2nd-most rushing FPG (18.6) and 5th-most FPG (26.3) to opposing RBs. In Week 3, James Robinson rushed for 100 yards (5.9 YPC) and scored 20.6 FPs. Great matchup for Dameon Pierce.
The Texans are even worse against RBs. They are currently allowing the 2nd-most FPG (29.7), and have given up a league-leading 478 rushing yards to opposing RBs – nearly 100 more yards than the next-closest team. In 2021, HOU allowed the 4th-most FPG (26.8) to opposing RBs.
LAC has been weak against WRs thus far, allowing the 6th-most FPG (41.8) to opposing WRs.
Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ New York Giants (O/U: 39.0)
Trends:
Saquon Barkley leads all RBs in FPG (22.6), snap% (86%), and ranks 2nd in yards after contact per attempt (4.64) while averaging 6.0 YPC. Saquon is back, and he’s arguably the RB1 for the remainder of the season. But, by salary, Saquon is the RB4 on DraftKings and the RB6 on Fanduel.
Barkley has only been a favorite 9 times in his career – averaging an insane 27.4 DraftKings FPG and 23.8 Fanduel FPG in those instances.
Unsurprisingly, Barkley averages 23.9 FPG in wins, but just 12.6 FPG in losses.
Sterling Shepard is unfortunately out for the year. Richie James Jr. will presumably move into the Giants’ WR1 role. He’s a screaming value given he’s already racked up a 20% target share in three games with Shepard, and costs just $4,000 on DraftKings this week. Mega chalk.
If David Montgomery sits, Khalil Herbert is going to be one of the week’s most popular RBs, especially on DraftKings where he is priced as the RB24 by salary.
This season, Herbert ranks as the 6th-highest graded rusher in the NFL (81.7 PFF rushing grade), and last year, he also ranked 6th-best, posting an 84.4 PFF rushing grade. In Herbert’s four career games with 20 or more touches, he averages 19.3 FPG (~RB4).
Justin Fields hasn’t thrown more than 20 passes in a game yet, and he has just 23 completions on the season. His lack of passing volume and sack rate is quite remarkable, historically speaking.
Darnell Mooney has never had a three-game stretch as bad as what he’s currently going through, averaging just 2.2 FPG. He’s droppable in season-long, which is rather incredible, especially at this point.
In his career, Daniel Jones averages 20.9 FPG in wins (~QB6), but just 16.4 FPG (~QB16) in losses. The Giants implied win probability this week is 64%.
Matchups:
The Giants have been tough against WRs thus far, allowing the 6th-fewest FPG (28.8). Last season, they gave up the 8th-fewest FPG (19.5) to outside WRs. Bad news for Darnell Mooney.
NYG gave up the 8th-most FPG (25.6) to opposing RBs last year. This season, they’ve given up the 3rd-most rushing yards (379) to opposing RBs.
Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 50.0)
Trends:
The Lions have the 3rd-highest implied team total (27.25) of the slate. They are implied for just 0.25 fewer points than the Eagles and Bills (27.5).
D’Andre Swift is likely out. Jamaal Williams could push for a bell cow workload in his absence, but it’s worth noting Williams averaged 8.4 FPG while earning just 49% of backfield carries in the two games Swift missed last season. But, that was before OC Ben Johnson took over, so we really don’t have a great idea of how this backfield rotation will shake out sans Swift.
Negative gamescript appears to be a boost for DK Metcalf, who averages +4.0 more FPG in losses (16.0) than wins (12.0) across his career.
In Week 3, Rashaad Penny dominated early-down work, even with Kenneth Walker in the mix. Penny earned a 69% snap share and 14 carries, compared to a 13% snap share and 3 carries for Walker.
Matchups:
Seattle is allowing the 6th-most FPG to opposing RBs (27.0) after allowing the 2nd-most FPG (29.8) last season.
The Lions are the league’s worst team against opposing RBs thus far, allowing 30.9 FPG. Last year, they ranked 5th-worst (26.3). DET also ranks as the 3rd-worst run defense, per PFF grades. Rashaad Penny feels a little sneaky here.
Seattle also allowed the 3rd-most FPG to opposing slot WRs last year (15.4). Queue Sun God.
Detroit shut down the deep ball last season, allowing just 10.8 YPG and 1.8 FPG on passes of 15 or more yards. That’s a knock to Tyler Lockett, who leads the team in deep receiving yards (47) and deep targets (3).
Both coverage units in this game have struggled thus far, with Detroit ranking 30th in PFF coverage grades, while Seattle ranks 31st.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 48.5)
Trends:
Trevor Lawrence ranks 5th in EPA per play (0.2) and 11th in PFF passing grades (70.5). Last season, Lawrence ranked 27th in EPA per play (-0.08) and 24th in PFF passing grades (58.3). We call this the Urban Meyer effect.
Lawrence has 20 career games. So far this season, he’s played his best, 5th-best, and 9th-best fantasy games ever, averaging a very respectable 19.4 FPG.
Jalen Hurts has been an insanely good fantasy QB through three weeks. Like, otherworldly levels of good. He’s now +600 to win MVP, 2nd to only Josh Allen (+300).
As a favorite, Hurts averages 26.7 FPG, compared to 23.2 as an underdog. For perspective, 26.7 FPG would be the 3rd-greatest QB fantasy season ever. And Hurts has averaged that in his 7 career games as a favorite.
Hurts is also PFF’s highest-graded passer (88.2 passing grade). And it’s not close.
DeVonta Smith is PFF’s highest-graded WR over the last two weeks (90.5 receiving grade). His 30.9-point performance last week was just his second game ever with double-digit targets.
Zay Jones is the WR49 (by salary) on DraftKings this week, but he ranks 27th in targets per game (8.0), 29th in FPG (14.1), and 6th in end zone targets (4).
Christian Kirk has exceeded 17.5 FPs in every game this season. Last year, he only accomplished that feat twice.
Matchups:
Despite forcing opponents to throw, the Eagles are allowing the 8th-fewest FPG (16.5) to opposing QBs this season.
Jacksonville has played the Colts, the Commanders, and the Chargers (without Keenan Allen) and is still allowing the 11th-most FPG (37.4) to opposing WRs. Last season, JAX gave up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.4) to opposing WR1s.
New York Jets (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 40.5)
Trends:
Breece Hall out-snapped Michael Carter (40 to 38) for the first time ever. Hall also saw 19 opportunities (and 11 targets), compared to just 13 for Carter. Hall may officially be the Jets 1a at RB, to Carter’s 1b.
Garrett Wilson appears to have officially displaced Elijah Moore from the slot, as he earned an 80% slot share in Week 3, compared to just 22% for Moore.
Tyler Conklin is the TE3 by FPG (12.7), tied for 3rd among TEs in total targets (24), and 1st among all TEs in routes (133).
Joe Flacco is averaging the most passing attempts per game (52.0) and the 5th-most passing YPG (286.0), which is presenting a ton of opportunity for Jets’ pass catchers to put up fantasy points.
Jaylen Warren appears to be a legitimate thorn in Najee Harris’ side. Harris’ snap share has fallen 14% (to 69%) relative to last season, but even more concerning, Warren earned two red zone rush attempts in Week 3, while Harris himself had only three. Half of Warren’s rush attempts last week were in the red zone.
Interestingly, Harris has fared worse in wins (16.6 FPG) than losses (18.3 FPG) thanks to 2.6 fewer targets per game in wins.
Diontae Johnson is still the unquestioned No. 1 WR in Pittsburgh. He’s earned double-digit targets in every game this season, after 12 games of double-digit targets last season (2nd-most, behind only Cooper Kupp).
Matchups:
This season, NYJ has the 10th-worst defense against opposing RBs, allowing 25.5 FPG. Last year, NYJ was by far the worst defense against opposing RBs, allowing 31.5 FPG.
PIT has been the 7th-worst team against opposing WRs, allowing 40.8 FPG. Amari Cooper and David Njoku combined for 190 receiving yards against them in Week 3.
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 50.0)
Trends:
Nick Chubb averages a strong 21.4 DraftKings FPG and 18.2 Fanduel FPG when favored in games with a total over 45.0 (13 instances). Chubb has scored over 25.0 DraftKings points in 39% of those games, but has gone over 30.0 DraftKings points on just one occasion.
So far this year, Chubb and Hunt have nearly identical workloads. Chubb is averaging 15.2 XFP/G (10th), while Hunt is averaging 14.9 XFP/G (11th). On DraftKings, Chubb costs $7,900 (RB5) while Hunts costs just $6,000 (RB17). On Fanduel, Chubb costs $9,200 (RB1), and Hunt costs just $6,100 (RB28)
Unlike Chubb, Hunt performs worse as a favorite, averaging just 11.7 FPG as a favorite when the total is 47.0 or higher since 2020, compared to 14.5 FPG outside of that split.
Marcus Mariota is averaging 7.0 rushing FPG so far this year, which would rank as the 30th-best fantasy QB rushing season ever if sustained for a full season.
Despite ranking 7th in RB FPG (16.3), Cordarrelle Patterson’s workload (13.2 XFP/G) ranks just 18th-best among RBs.
Matchups:
ATL has been rather tough against opposing RBs this season, allowing just 14.7 FPG (5th-fewest).
The Falcons have been terrible against opposing WRs, though, allowing the 4th-most FPG (47.6) and the most TDs (6).
Cleveland has only been a tad better, allowing the 9th-most FPG (40.0) to opposing WRs.
ATL has also gotten killed by TEs, allowing the 2nd-most FPG (20.4) thus far. Last week, David Njoku scored 23.9 FPs on 10 targets.
Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 42.5)
Trends:
This game features a pair of seriously gamescript-dependent rushers. Victory will be key to their fantasy success.
Since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor averages 25.3 FPG in wins, but just 17.3 FPG in losses. The Colts’ implied win probability is 64% this week.
Since 2019, Derrick Henry averages an even more extreme 25.1 FPG in wins, but just 13.2 FPG in losses. The Titans implied win probability is 39%. Remember that I wrote this exact sentence last week, nobody played Henry, Tennessee won, and he wound up as RB2 on the week.
Michael Pittman has played in 32 career games, his two outings with the Colts this season have been the 2nd-best and 12th-best games of his career. And the 21.2 FPG he is averaging is almost a 100% improvement off his career baseline, in an admittedly minuscule sample.
Treylon Burks led the team in routes in Week 3 (27). Prior to Week 3, Burks led all routes in targets per route run. He’s due for a big game with his role being expanded to full-time.
Matchups:
The Titans have been #bad against opposing QBs this season, allowing 25.9 FPG. Granted, they’ve faced Kyler Murray and Josh Allen in two of their three games.
And Tennessee has been just as bad against opposing WRs, giving up 46.8 FPG (5th-most). Last week, they allowed Mack Hollins to go for 8/158/1. Last season, they were the 7th-worst team against outside WRs (22.9 FPG allowed), and the 2nd-worst against slot WRs (16.7 FPG allowed).
IND is allowing the 5th-most FPG to opposing TEs (18.3) after they allowed the 3rd-most FPG (15.6) to opposing TEs last season. But, I’m not sure that matters much given Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim are both splitting reps at the position for TEN, as both had 12 routes last week.
Washington Commanders (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 42.5)
Trends:
Tony Pollard (10.5 XFP/G) has earned a better workload than Ezekiel Elliott (10.3) this season. The duo is also equal in red zone opportunities, earning 1.0 per game each. Last season, Zeke had twice as many red zone opportunities per game as Pollard (3.1 to 1.5) and over 50% more XFP/G (15.3 to 9.4).
CeeDee Lamb only averages -1.3 fewer FPG with Cooper Rush as his starter (12.7 FPG), compared to when Rush is on the bench (14.0 FPG).
In the absence of Dalton Schultz, Peyton Hendershot and Jake Ferguson handled the TE work. Hendershot led the way in routes (15 to 14) and yards (43 to 13) while both earned 3 targets. Hendershot, in particular, is a bit interesting for DFS given his $2,500 DraftKings price tag.
Curtis Samuel leads all WRs in touches (30). That’s right, no WR in the NFL has touched the ball as much as Samuel through three weeks. His 4.6 designed touches (carries and screens) per game rank only behind Deebo Samuel.
Antonio Gibson ranks 4th among RBs in XFP/G (18.1), but just 12th in actual FPG (14.4). This is his final week with a stranglehold on early-down attempts before Brian Robinson returns off IR.
Since the start of 2021, Gibson has averaged +5.6 more FPG in wins (18.1) than losses (12.5). Washington’s implied win probability this week is 39%.
Logan Thomas has a concerning 60% route share on the year. Last season, Thomas posted a 94% route share in his first three games. It’ll be exceedingly difficult to trust Thomas until he fully returns to that every-down role, but I suppose that could happen this week.
Since 2019, Carson Wentz has actually been better as an underdog (20.2 FPG) than he has as a favorite (19.1 FPG). Impressively, Wentz also has the 8th-best and 9th-best fantasy starts by a QB this year, of 96 potential QB outings.
Matchups:
WAS has struggled against QBs, giving up the 4th-most FPG (25.9) to the combination of Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence. They were the worst team against opposing QBs last season, allowing 22.6 FPG – 2.2 more FPG than the next-closest team.
The Commanders have also fared poorly against WRs, allowing the 3rd-most FPG (48.5). Last season, they were both the 5th-worst team against outside WRs (23.2) and the 5th-worst team against opposing slot WRs (15.1).
Washington is PFF’s 6th-worst graded coverage unit (53.3 coverage grade).
Dallas, on the other hand, is PFF’s 6th-worst graded run defense (51.0 run defense grade).
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 51.5)
Trends:
Lamar Jackson (34.1 FPG) and Josh Allen (29.3) are both on pace for the greatest fantasy season ever for a QB by FPG, set by 2019 Lamar Jackson (27.6). Granted, both players have 14 games to go.
Last season, a QB scored more than 39.0 fantasy points twice. Lamar Jackson has done that twice in three games this season.
Last season, a QB exceeded 100 rushing yards just five times. Lamar Jackson has done that twice this season.
Lamar Jackson is having the greatest fantasy start by a QB all-time after scoring 102.26 fantasy points in his first three games. Josh Allen (87.86 fantasy points) is off to the 11th-greatest fantasy QB start ever.
Over the last two seasons, Josh Allen has played in seven games with a total of 50.0 or higher, averaging an insane 33.9 DraftKings FPG in those contests, and scoring over 30.0 DraftKings points in 86% of those games.
Lamar Jackson has played in seven career games with a total of 51.0 or higher. He averages 27.3 DraftKings FPG in those contests, and has gone over 30.0 DraftKings points in 43% of those games.
It is worth noting, though, that Lamar has generally performed a lot worse as an underdog, relative to when he’s been favored. Agnostic of total, Jackson averages 26.0 DraftKings FPG as a favorite, but just 20.9 DK FPG as an underdog across his career.
Devin Singletary averaged a 57% snap share in Weeks 1 and 2, but that jumped to 73% in Week 3. He also earned a career-high 11 targets in Week 3, and has claimed 100% of inside the 10 touches this season, averaging 1.7 per game. He’s an underrated play in a game where everyone will be attacking the passing options.
Stefon Diggs averages 21.1 FPG (~WR3) as a favorite in games with a total over 45.0 since joining Buffalo, compared to 18.1 FPG (~WR5) outside of that split.
Isaiah McKenzie averages a rather impressive 20.3 FPG in his four career games with five or more targets since 2019, compared to just 4.4 FPG outside of that split. He’s a risky play given his slot timeshare with Jamison Crowder, but that will also tank his ownership in what should easily be the highest-scoring game of the slate. McKenzie scored 21.2 FPs last week on 9 targets, even with Crowder in the mix.
Mark Andrews has gotten a slight boost from negative gamescript since 2020, averaging +1.4 more FPG in losses (16.7) than wins (15.3).
The Ravens backfield is a mess, at least from a usage standpoint. JK Dobbins had 7 carries in his first game back, while Justice Hill earned 6, and Lamar Jackson continued to function as BAL’s proxy RB1, leading the way with 10 carries.
Matchups:
The Ravens are allowing the 2nd-most FPG to opposing QBs (30.7) and by far the most passing yards (1,097, over 150 more yards than the No. 2 team). Last season, Baltimore gave up the 4th-most FPG to opposing QBs (19.9).
The Bills, on the other hand, have only allowed 12.5 FPG to opposing QBs this season (fewest).
Baltimore has been the 5th-worst team against opposing RBs this season, allowing 27.1 FPG. The Bills, yet again, are the opposite, giving up the 4th-fewest FPG to opposing RBs (14.1).
Baltimore has been insanely bad against WRs thus far, giving up a league-leading 56.7 FPG. The 842 receiving yards the Ravens have given up to opposing WRs this season is 175 more than the No. 2 team.
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) @ Carolina Panthers (O/U: 42.5)
Trends:
Kyler Murray averages 20.0 FPG in losses, compared to 29.5 FPG in wins across his career. The Cardinals implied win probability this week is 49%.
Marquise Brown is seeing the 3rd-best usage of any WR (20.8 XFP/G), which is a 25% improvement on his 2021 usage (16.7 XFP/G).
From The XFP Report: If excluding Week 1, Zach Ertz has now seen double-digit targets in 7 of his last 9 healthy games. Over this span, Ertz averages 9.6 targets, 17.0 XFP/G, 0.74 XTD/G, and 13.3 FPG. In contrast to all 2021 TEs, those numbers rank: 1st-, 1st-, 1st-, and 5th-best.
Among RBs, Christian McCaffrey ranks 3rd in snap% (84%), 4th in target share (16%), 2nd in backfield XFP% (93%), and 1st in team XFP% (30%). Despite this, he’s averaging just 16.3 FPG (RB7) on a 16.0 XFP/G workload (RB8). And, I think this is largely due to general offensive incompetence, and slow pace. CAR is averaging just 54.3 plays per game, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL and about 8.0 fewer plays per game than the NFL average.
Being favored doesn’t appear to help CMC, as he averages +4.9 more FPG as an underdog (27.5) than as a favorite (22.6) since 2019.
I’m not ready to give up on DJ Moore yet, but I’m close. For Week 4, he’s the 3rd-cheapest he’s ever been on DraftKings ($5,300) since the start of the 2020 season. So, this is arguably the ultimate buy-low spot. And, the matchup is pretty juicy…
Matchups:
The Arizona Cardinals' 29.6 PFF team coverage grade isn’t just by far the worst mark in the NFL, it’s the 5th-worst team coverage grade in PFF history (since 2006), if maintained for the full season.
Every single Cardinals’ starting linebacker or defensive back has a below-average (60.0) PFF coverage grade. And most of them are well below average.
Arizona has been the worst team against opposing TEs this season, allowing 24.0 FPG.
Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (O/U: 45.5)
Trends:
Javonte Williams impressively ranks 2nd among RBs in XFP/G (20.0). Unfortunately, the red zone opportunities and snap shares between him and Melvin Gordon have been close to 50-50. Still, Williams is averaging 4.0 more targets per game than Gordon, so he should benefit from potentially negative gamescript. But that’s not the end of the story…
Strangely, in Week 3, Mike Boone also emerged with a backfield role, earning 14 snaps and 11 routes, compared to 33 snaps and 13 routes for Williams. If this continues into Week 4, it’ll be very difficult to remain optimistic about Williams’ pass game role in negative gamescript.
Since 2019, Russell Wilson has averaged 24.3 FPG as a favorite, but just 17.0 FPG as an underdog. Unsurprisingly, Wilson averages 24.3 FPG in wins, but just 19.4 FPG in losses in that time frame. The Broncos implied win probability this week is 44%.
Courtland Sutton is clearly Wilson’s favorite target, averaging 19.7 XFP/G thus far – 10.2 XFP/G better than the next-closest Broncos WR (Jerry Jeudy).
Derek Carr has averaged a very pedestrian 19.0 FPG as a favorite since 2020, compared to 19.9 FPG as an underdog.
Josh Jacobs is one of the league’s most gamescript-dependent RBs, averaging 17.5 FPG as a favorite, compared to just 13.7 FPG as an underdog since 2020. Along that same vein, Jacobs averages 18.9 FPG in wins, but just 11.9 FPG in losses. The Raiders implied win probability this week is 59%.
Matchups:
Denver has been the 3rd-toughest team against opposing QBs this season, allowing just 14.6 FPG. They also ranked 3rd-toughest last season, allowing 16.1 FPG.
The Broncos have been the worst-possible matchup this season for opposing RBs, allowing just 12.7 FPG.
And, Denver has been the toughest defense against opposing WRs, allowing just 24.5 FPG. On the whole, Denver is PFF’s 6th-highest graded defense (73.5 team defense grade).
Last season, the Raiders gave up the 6th-most YPG on deep throws (54.0), which is potentially good news for Courtland Sutton.
New England Patriots (+10) @ Green Bay Packers (O/U: 40.5)
Trends:
For just the 4th time ever, and the 2nd time this year, Rhamondre Stevenson out-snapped Damien Harris (41 to 25). Stevenson earned 17 opportunities and finished the week as RB7, scoring 20.1 FPs. He figures to be heavily involved this week, given the Pats are 10.0-point underdogs. By salary, he’s the RB
From The XFP Report: Jakobi Meyers has led New England in target share in each of his last 10 healthy games. He’s seen 8 or more targets in 7 of his last 8 games. Over his last 7 games, he averages 16.4 XFP/G (~WR12) and 14.2 FPG (~WR25). He’s priced as just the WR39 on DraftKings this week ($4,800), but profiles as much more a cash game play, given the minimal upside he’s shown this season.
AJ Dillon (14.8 XFP/G) has actually earned a better workload than Aaron Jones (13.1) this season.
In wins of 7-points or more, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 27.2 FPG, compared to just 20.0 FPG outside of that split since 2020.
Matchups:
NE is giving up the 8th-most FPG to opposing QBs (24.7). Last season, they were significantly tougher, allowing the 2nd-fewest FPG (14.1) to opposing QBs.
NE has been the 4th-toughest team against opposing WRs this season, allowing just 28.0 FPG. They were the 3rd-toughest team in that category last season, allowing just 29.0 FPG.
