General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP — Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use many of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario, if a QB ends up as the captain on DK, is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game. The one exception to this rule is if the quarterback is mobile (think Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray) and can accrue points with their legs without bringing pass-catchers along for the ride.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest-scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table — I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting, usually offer a solid floor for cheap — especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup, but usually one or fewer.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
ALSO VIABLE AS FLEX PLAYS — LISTED IN PREFERENTIAL ORDER
Christian Kirk could make a nice leverage play off what should be a heavily rostered Zay Jones. Jones has dominated the last few weeks and figures to be the most rostered receiver, and potentially overall player, on the slate. Kirk has had a steady workload of between 7-12 targets all season, and playing out of the slot may be a way to avoid Sauce Gardner. It’s a decent leverage play in hopes that the Jets may focus defensive efforts on Zay and Kirk is the beneficiary.
Garrett Wilson is always a bet on talent. He leads the Jets with a 24% target share and is averaging 9.5 targets per game over the last month. Even in Zach Wilson’s return, he saw double-digit targets and nearly eclipsed 100 yards. He’s the player on the Jets that has the best chance of a ceiling game.
Trevor Lawrence makes the captain section despite the fact he has a toe issue. He’s been dealing with it and it hasn’t limited too much from moving around in the pocket. He’s not going to break a 50-yard run like he did in the national championship, but tacking 20-40 yards and a potential rushing touchdown is massive. Lawrence could also get there with the spread-it-around approach. Kirk, the Jones duo, Engram, Etienne, and Jamal Agnew have all been involved.
Zonovan Knight is my favorite leverage play at captain. I don’t think he’ll be too highly rostered, but against the Jags defense he could turn his 15 or so touches into a 100-yard game with a hopeful score. Though he’s not a pass-catching back per se, he has seen games with a handful of targets. With everyone all over Garrett Wilson and the Jags receivers as captain options, pivoting to Knight and hoping he punches in two touchdowns on the ground is a great way to create a different lineup.
Zay Jones has been a beast down the stretch, which culminated in a three-touchdown game last week. He’s just flat-out getting open. As I mentioned above, maybe Sauce Gardner and the Jets' pass defense as a whole puts a damper on that this week, but I think you would be foolish to leave Zay out of the captain pool of players on this slate. He’s earned 27% of targets over the last four weeks. The biggest stat that stood out for me is that he’s averaging more than 1 end-zone target per game in that span. You will have to make the lineup unique around Zay if you don’t want to chop the first place with 400 other entrants.
Flex
Zach Wilson had a pretty solid statistical game against the Patriots the Week he benched for Mike White, then he returns and has a pretty solid statistical game against the Lions. I will be overweight on Zach in my lineups because I think his name currently carries a negative connotation that will keep his ownership at bay. Against this Jaguars pass defense with guys like Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore, his odds of landing in the optimal lineup are greater than those at which he’ll be rostered.
Travis Etienne hasn’t been a huge part of the passing game as he was expected to be. There are some weeks he catches a few balls, but he isn’t racking up targets like an elite pass-catching running back. For that reason, I am playing him more in the flex. There is a scenario where he could potentially get some touchdown variance in his side and he’s worth captain consideration. If you’re rostering him as captain I would be light on other Jags players
Michael Carter and JaMycal Hasty will both spell their respective teammates and take some 3rd down work away. Carter has more viability as he is treated more as an equal to Knight than Hasty is to Etienne. Last week, the Jets gave Carter a few opportunities at the goal line.
Elijah Moore and Corey Davis are important pieces of this game. Moore has 23 targets in his last three games and that includes a 7-target game from Zach Wilson last week. Davis will be rostered much less, but he’s wonky box scores, which most people will use as their analysis is a result of multiple injuries. He actually started the season hit with multiple games of 70+ yards with Zach Wilson at quarterback. I like rostering them both pretty heavily on this slate.
Marvin Jones is clearly behind Kirk, Zay, and Engram in terms of target share. I much prefer Moore or Davis in his price range, but he still does possess touchdown upside. We aren’t going to see a massive usage game from him anymore, though. I’d roster him as a part of Lawrence heavy stacks.
Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah are a great leverage situation in my opinion. Uzomah just scored two touchdowns, so you’d expect he’d pick up some heavy interest, but Conklin continues to play more snaps, about 75% to Uzomah’s 50%. Conklin also had his best games with Wilson earlier in the season.
Evan Engram is another one of those players who can be rostered as a captain, depending on how many entries and how large your player pool will be. This issue is his one monster game this season has created a massive price tag for this game. His odds of hitting value are actually fairly low compared to the other pass-catchers who cost much less.
There are a few options for the last man in on these squads, but most are pretty thin. Ty Johnson should see a few snaps if he’s active and potentially be targeted in the passing game. Jeff Smith saw action with Davis out but will probably be relegated to a small role with his return. Worth a flier if you need the savings, though. Jamal Agnew is a really nice dart. He doesn’t play a ton, but when he’s on the field they get him the ball. He’s used in the run and pass game. Dan Arnold will play in two-tight-end sets, but is a complete gamble as he often doesn’t see a target.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Christian Kirk
Flex: Trevor Lawrence, Jamal Agnew, Garrett Wilson
Captain: Garrett Wilson
Flex: Zach Wilson, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Captain: Trevor Lawrence
Flex: Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Corey Davis
Captain: Zonovan Knight
Flex: Jets DST, Elijah Moore, Zay Jones
Captain: Zay Jones
Flex: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Tyler Conklin
