Fantasy Points Data: Week 8 Chart Porn

Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.

It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.

But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.

This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)

Quick Analysis

• Based on Washington’s schedule-adjusted FPG allowed, Jonathan Taylor has a tough matchup on the ground (-3.1), Parris Campbell has a perfectly neutral matchup (0.0), and the TEs (Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Grason, and Jelani Woods) have a tough bottom-5 matchup (-6.0). All other Colts players have a top-5 matchup.

• The Falcons are a great matchup for almost the main pieces of the Carolina passing attack. PJ Walker (+7.1) and DJ Moore (+10.9) both have top-2 matchups at their respective positions.

• Andy Dalton has the top schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+8.4), while Tre’Quan Smith has by far the best matchup among slot WRs (+10.1)

• Daniel Jones has a dream matchup for rushing QBs (+4.6), which is great news as he’s led QBs in rushing FPG (10.0) over the last four weeks. Saquon Barkley (+3.9) has the 2nd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs.

• Derrick Henry (+4.1) has the best schedule-adjusted matchup among RBs this week.

• Chris Olave and the New Orleans Saints WRs have the 3rd-softest WR matchup of the week (against Las Vegas), worth in real terms +6.4 FPG over their collective per-game average.

• Tanner Hudson, playing against Seattle, has the softest TE matchup of the week, worth in real terms +6.9 FPG over his expectation.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)

WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Cooper Kupp has the 3rd-best slot matchup this week, worth +4.3 FPG over his expectation in real terms.
• Cincinnati's outside WRs (Tee Higgins and Michael Thomas) have the 2nd-best matchup for outside WRs, worth +6.7 FPG over their expectation in real terms.
• Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins have the 4th-best matchup for outside WRs, worth +5.9 FPG over their expectation in real terms.
• DeAndre Hopkins almost never leaves the left side of the field. He has the 5th-best matchup for LWRs, worth +3.2 FPG over his expectation in real terms.

FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s

Quick Analysis

• The Saints are giving up 21.0 FPG to opposing WRs. A great matchup for Davante Adams.
• Atlanta is giving up the 5th-most FPG to opposing WR1s, suggesting a strong matchup for DJ Moore.
• The Titans rank as a top-7 matchup for Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.
• The Steelers are allowing the 2nd-most FPG (14.9) to opposing WR2s, suggesting a strong matchup for DeVonta Smith.

Deep Passing YPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Tennessee is the premier defense to target deep, allowing the most FPG (10.5) and the most YPG (80.2) on deep throws. An important note for Nico Collins, who leads the Texans in aDOT (14.5).
• Las Vegas has gotten crushed on deep balls this season, allowing the 2nd-most YPG (66.8), the 5th-most FPG (8.9), and the 3rd-most deep receptions (13). A great matchup for air yards king Chris Olave.
• By YPG allowed (66.1), Indianapolis is the 3rd-best deep matchup for opposing offenses. This suggests a strong matchup for Alec Pierce – who leads the Colts’ full-time WRs in aDOT (12.3), nearly double that of Michael Pittman (6.8) and Parris Campbell (5.1).
• Denver is the toughest matchup for deep pass catchers, which is bad news for Marvin Jones, who leads Jacksonville in aDOT (15.2).

QB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Targeting Washington through the air has led to extremely efficient passing, as they’ve given up the most passing fantasy points per pass attempt and the highest passer rating allowed. A great matchup for Sam Ehlinger.
• Tennessee is giving up the 2nd-most passing FPG (19.4), suggesting a strong matchup for Davis Mills.
• Chicago and Denver are brutal matchups for opposing QBs, allowing single-digit passing FPG. Bad matchups for both Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott.

RB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Seattle and Las Vegas are the top two matchups for opposing receiving RBs by FPG allowed, setting up strong matchups for Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley.
• Detroit allowing a league-leading 23.0 rushing FPG to opposing RBs presents a strong matchup for Raheem Mostert, a player whose career YPC (5.4) rivals Bo Jackson.
• The Titans are funneling RB production through the air, ranking as the toughest matchup on the ground by FPG (9.2), but the 5th-best matchup by receiving production allowed (12.6 FPG). Not great for Dameon Pierce, but far from a death blow to his fantasy value this week.

TE FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• LAR is the worst matchup for opposing TEs, allowing the fewest FPG (4.3), the lowest percentage of total team fantasy production (9.8%), and just 120 total receiving yards on the year. A tough matchup for George Kittle, who I still like as a DFS value this week based on his recent usage.
• There is no better matchup for a TE than the Arizona Cardinals, allowing the 2nd-most targets (63), the most yards (539), and the most FPG (20.1) – 21% more FPG than the 2nd-worst team (LV).
• DET is the 4th-best matchup for opposing TEs by FPG allowed (15.8), setting up a plus matchup for Mike Gesicki, who has seen a notable usage bump in recent weeks.

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)

Quick Analysis

• New England profiles as the 2nd-best matchup for opposing pass-catching RBs based on their fantasy points allowed over expectation, which sets up quite nicely for Michael Carter. Jets RBs have the 8th-most receptions on the season (41) and it’s quite unlikely new arrival James Robinson will see much target volume.
• Minnesota is allowing 132% more FPG than expected to opposing TEs this season, which is a great sign for Zach Ertz. He’s been plagued by under-performing his expectation this season (-1.8 PAR), but perhaps that could change against Minnesota.
• Miami has been remarkably tough against opposing RBs on the ground this season (allowing 61% of XFP), while being one of the best defenses to target through the air (allowing 122% of XFP). That’s great news for D’Andre Swift, if he plays, and poor for Jamaal Williams regardless of Swift’s status.

OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)

Quick Analysis

• Justin Fields has been playing well recently, but this dreadful Bears offensive line against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys pass rush is easily the biggest mismatch of the slate, at least among passing attacks. By average pressure rate over expectation, this matchup is expected to generate almost 10% more pressure of expectation than the 2nd-worst matchup (LA vs. SF).
• New Orleans is tied for the worst pass rush of the week, generating -11.2% pressure over expectation. This boades well for Derek Carr, granted Davante Adams is dealing with an illness and Darren Waller appears questionable.
• Based on yards before contact per attempt, Kenneth Walker has easily the best matchup of the week. The Giants are giving up 0.5 more YBC per attempt than the next-closest team, while the Seattle offense ranks 2nd-best in YBC per attempt.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

Quick Analysis

• Atlanta has been the ultimate pass funnel this season, allowing the highest-pass rate over expectation this season (9.2%). Should be a high-volume outing for DJ Moore, who posted an absurd 46% target share in Week 7.
• Simiarly, Arizona profiles as a major pass funnel for opposing offenses, allowing a +9.0% pass rate over expectation. Look for Minnesota to air the ball out this week.
• Chicago is the least desirable team to throw on this season, allowing a -6.9% pass rate over expectation. This lends credence to fading the DAL passing attack while targetin g Tony Pollard.

Graham Barfield’s Pace of Play Model

Quick Analysis

• Minnesota vs. Arizona profiles as by far the best game from a pace perspective. A positive note for both offenses.
• It’s a bit surprising to see both Geno Smith and Daniel Jones profile as some of the higher-owned QBs of the Week 8 main slate, given the poor pace projection in this game, combined with the mediocre 44.5 game total. The pace model certainly lends credit to fading that QB duo.

Dank Stats

In the wake of the Ja’Marr Chase injury, Bengals' top backup WR Mike Thomas averages 0.51 yards per route run. The only WR with 75 or more routes who is worse? Former Bengal AJ Green (0.37).

The Green Bay pass offense is seriously struggling. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t topped 6.0 YPA in each of his last three games and his QB rating hasn’t reached triple digits in four straight contests. For perspective, he finished above 6.0 YPA in 14-of-17 games and his QB rating was at 100.0+ in 11-of-17 games last season.

Stafford’s lack of a deep threat, and decline in offensive line have killed his numbers this year compared to last year (through 7 weeks):

2021: 8.94 ADOT, 12.9% Deep throw, 25% pressure rate, TO Worthy 3.7%

2022: 5.9 ADOT, 6.2% Deep Throw, 30% pressure rate, 5.3% TO Worthy

Cooper Kupp has been targeted on 39.5% of the Rams’ first-read throws this season, the highest rate of any receiver in the NFL. Or, rather, it was until DeAndre Hopkins earned a whopping 63.6% first-read market share in Week 7.

Gabriel Davis currently leads all receivers in depth-adjusted yards per target over expectation (+5.8). The gap between him and the next-closest receiver is the same gap as between that receiver and the one ranking 15th on our list.