A four-game Friday night slate is a gift. This slate of games gives us a mix of well-known power conference teams and a group of five teams with distinct identities. This mix of teams provides several unique ways to build a lineup.
This slate features several strong options at QB and favorable defenses for those QBs, so my general feeling is that WRs should be used in the flex position more so than RBs. But even with that being said, there are some high-upside RBs that could be big winners.
As a reminder, we are going to have plenty of content in-season for you every week in our CFB Package, including:
· DFS (Articles & Livestream)
· Player Props Articles
· Matchup Reports
· Projections
· Rankings
· and MORE!
Let’s dig in.
Against the Spread Picks
Syracuse (+6.5) vs UNLV
Total Wagers
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State (Over 49.0)
Quarterbacks
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon vs Michigan State (DK: $9.7K | FD: $12.0K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 38.25)
Dillon Gabriel is the most expensive QB on the slate, and as a 24-point favorite with the highest implied total, it’s clear why you want pieces of the Oregon offense. Gabriel has taken to the Oregon offense featuring quick, short passes and has turned it into an 81.5% completion percentage and 8.8 yards per attempt. He’s averaged 25.1 fantasy points per game and peaked at 32 points against Oregon State. Gabriel will be a popular option in cash games because of his secure scoring. His price may restrict the ability to fit him into effective GPP lineups.
Kyle McCord, Syracuse vs UNLV (DK: $9.0K | FD: $10.2K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 26.0)
Kyle McCord let us down against Stanford, checking in with just 27.8 fantasy points. However, against a UNLV team that allows 226 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game, there is another opening to use him as the fourth most expensive QB on the slate. This is the game with the highest total on the slate, so both QBs are likely to be popular plays. As the underdog option, McCord is likely best used as a pivot option in GPPs to go against Hajj-Malik Williams teams.
Hajj-Malik Williams, UNLV vs Syracuse (DK: $7.0K | FD: $10.4K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 32.5)
After a tumultuous week for UNLV, Hajj-Malik Williams was thrust into the starting lineup, and there was seemingly no step back from the Matt Sluka-led offense. Williams had 40.2 fantasy points which included 4 total touchdowns accounted for and 119 rushing yards. While we can't project that level of rushing production each week, it appears he has some level of added baseline value coming from rushing production. Williams will be a popular play this week as the most affordable QB option, with an implied total of over 30.
Hajj-Malik Williams is already better than Matthew Sluka
— The Jump Sports (@TheJumpSports) September 28, 2024
UNLV will be just fine pic.twitter.com/5hlG8Mmmxk
Tyler Huff, Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State (DK: $7.1K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 49 | Implied: 32.75)
Tyler Huff quietly has three consecutive weeks with more than 25 fantasy points, including one game over 30. Huff has averaged 22.75 pass attempts per game and has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt. This will come in handy as he faces a defense that has allowed a 50% passing success rate and 3.75 explosive passes per game. While this gives Huff some upside, what gives him a safe floor is his 67.25 rushing yards per game and team-leading 48 rush attempts. Huff’s rushing floor makes him a strong option in both cash and GPP tournaments.
Alternatives:
Aiden Chiles, Michigan State vs Oregon (DK: $6.8K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 14.25)
Running Backs
Jordan James, Oregon vs Michigan State (DK: $7.5K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 38.25)
Jordan James looks primed for a big game, as Oregon is the biggest favorite on the slate. James has scored at least 13 fantasy points in every game this season and has averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game. While Michigan State’s run defense has been largely a strength, the expected margin of victory for the Ducks points toward a heavy workload for the Oregon running game, and James should be at the center of it.
Oregon RB #20 Jordan James hitting the stiff arm pic.twitter.com/qZ2LNpLX9o
— Daniel Harms🏈 (@InHarmsWay19) October 1, 2024
Cam Cook, TCU vs Houston (DK: $6.0K | FD: $8.2K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 34)
Cam Cook is one of the strongest plays on the slate. With the second-highest implied total on the slate, TCU is expected to be in control of the game, so it’s unlikely Cook is game-scripted out. He has averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game. While Houston’s defense has been strong against the run than the pass, the overall game script works in favor of Cook and his price point is affordable enough to make him a good cash or GPP option.
Tre Stewart, Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 33.25)
Tre Stewart is averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game and is coming off a 21.6-point performance against Southern Mississippi. He gets to follow that up with another favorable matchup against Kennesaw State, which is allowing 4.1 yards per rush, 136.8 rushing yards per game, and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Stewart has 41 carries on the year and has converted those into 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns. While he’s likely to be splitting the workload with Anwar Lewis and QB Tyler Huff, Stewart is very likely to lead the RBs in carries against a defense that has allowed a 42.1% rushing success rate.
Stacy Sneed, Houston vs TCU (DK: $3.5K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 317.5)
At the favorable price of 3.5K, Stacy Sneed is an under-the-radar option for teams needing roster flexibility. Sneed has averaged 7.0 fantasy points per game and is coming off of a 9.0-point performance against Iowa State. Sneed faces a TCU defense that has been somewhat porous against the running game. They’ve allowed 174.8 rushing yards per game with an average of 4.3 yards per carry. Opposing offenses have had a 46.2% rushing success rate against TCU.
Alternatives:
LeQuint Allen, Syracuse vs UNLV (DK: $7.8K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 26)
Jai’Den Thomas, UNLV vs Syracuse (DK: $5.5K | FD: $7.1K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Anwar Lewis, Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State (DK: $4.8K | FD: $6.9K | O/U: 49 | Implied: 32.75)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Qua Ashley, Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State (DK: $3.7K | FD: $6.3K | O/U: 49 | Implied: 16.25)
Receivers
Tez Johnson, Oregon vs Michigan State (DK: $7.9K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 38.25)
Oregon is the biggest favorite on the slate, and it’s in large part due to the passing game. Michigan State features the fourth-worst passing success rate allowed on the slate, and with Oregon’s quick pass offense, they’ll have no trouble moving the ball on offense.
The biggest beneficiary of this is likely to be Tez Johnson, who has averaged 9.75 targets per game and leads the team with 33 receptions for 311 yards. Johnson has averaged 25.0 fantasy points per game and has two games over 30 points. A Johnson stack with Dillon Gabriel stack has incredibly high upside, but may be difficult to fit in all lineups.
WHAT A DIME 🎯
Dillon Gabriel to Tez Johnson for the @oregonfootball TD 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Xbvt0to6id
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 29, 2024
WHAT A DIME 🎯
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 29, 2024
Dillon Gabriel to Tez Johnson for the @oregonfootball TD 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Xbvt0to6id
Ricky White III, UNLV vs Syracuse (DK: $7.2K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 32.5)
It took almost no time for Ricky White and Hajj-Malik Williams to get on the same page. White and Williams connected for a TD pass in the second quarter and then again in the fourth. White’s 12 targets accounted for 70.5% of the total pass attempts in the game. While it’s unlikely he’ll maintain that level of dominance, his current average of 8 targets per game is proof enough that he’s a must-stack with all Williams teams. He takes on a Syracuse defense that allows a 41.4% passing success rate and two explosive pass plays per game.
Trebor Pena, Syracuse vs UNLV (DK: $6.7K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 26)
Trebor Pena seems locked in as Kyle McCord’s favorite target on the Syracuse offense. Pena has at least six targets in every game this season and is averaging 8.0 targets per game. He’s averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game and has scored at least 14.5 points in every game. With his secured target volume, Pena is great in both cash and GPP lineups. Pena is my preferred bring-back option for Williams/White stacked teams.
Nick Marsh, Michigan State vs Oregon (DK: $3.9K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 14.25)
Generally, it’s not the optimum strategy to take pieces of an offense with an implied total of 14.25, but in this instance, it’s worth making an exception because of his price. Nick Marsh is averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game, albeit with most of the production coming against Maryland. The true freshman has averaged 4.5 targets per game and Michigan State will likely be forced to pass as they’ll be playing from behind in this matchup. Marsh is a perfect option to give roster flexibility, and his high ceiling makes him a strong option for GPPs.
Alternatives:
Jack Bech, TCU vs Houston (DK: $7.0K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 34)
Eric McAlister, TCU vs Houston (DK: $5.0K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 34)
Traeshon Holden, Oregon vs Michigan State (DK: $4.6K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 52.5 | Implied: 38.25)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Blake Bohannon, Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State (DK: $3.7K | FD: $5.0K | O/U: 49| Implied: 16.25)