| HEIGHT | 6' 1" | SHUTTLE | 4.40 seconds |
| WEIGHT | 208 lbs | VERTICAL | 26 3/8" |
| 40 TIME | 5.08 seconds |
Following a similar path to Bryce Young, Sam Hartman has excelled at every stop since becoming a starting QB during his high school sophomore season. The numbers tell a great deal of the story:
Hartman was selected along with Justin Fields to be featured in Season 2 of the Netflix documentary series QB1: Beyond the Lights. While some in the scouting community doubted whether Hartman's mobility limitations would allow his tools to translate at the Power Five level, Hartman hit the ground running from the very moment he stepped foot on the Winston-Salem campus:
In addition to his lengthy list of significant improvements, Hartman came out of left field to showcase one of the top deep arms in the country last season. After previously failing to connect on a single throw of at least 40 air yards, Hartman completed 53% of his 15 attempts at that depth during the '21 season. On only 9% of dropbacks, Hartman found a home for 26% of his passing yardage and 36% of his total TDs on throws traveling at least 30 air yards.
With the NFL crawling through the deep passing-desert, desperately searching for QBs with the ability to display third-level accuracy, we can take it to the bank that Hartman will have the attention of dozens of franchises during the '22 season.
Hitting pause after Week 9 last season, you'd find Hartman leading Wake Forest to an 8-0 record and well on his way toward entering the 2022 NFL Draft as one of the top QB prospects. Reality came crashing down on Hartman and the Demon Deacons over their final six games. A heartbreaking 55-58 defeat to North Carolina in Week 10 began a downward spiral that concluded with a 3-3 record to close out the '21 season.
The Deacs' playoff hopes weren't the only casualty, as the following data ultimately led Hartman to decide to return for his super junior season:
As we can see from the coverage scheme data below, Hartman currently has several areas to improve his game before attempting to take it to the next level:
These ranks were compiled from Hartman's last three seasons, combined. Hartman did show improved play last season when facing each coverage shell, including inside the Red Zone. However, in order for his career star to take off, we need more of the same and better consistency at the end of the schedule when the difficulty scale heightens.
Hartman's first two prep seasons were spent at the now-defunct Davidson Day private school. He selected Oceanside Collegiate Academy to conclude his high school career. In spite of a considerable step up in competition, Hartman continued to showcase the impressive pocket composure, arm strength and accuracy that highlight his toolkit.
Hartman emerged as the starting QB for Wake HC Dave Clawson in 2018. Hartman may have only led the program to a 4-5 record during his nine starts, but the maturity and leadership he displayed, as well as the consistency of his offense simply did not deserve what would come next.
A season-ending leg injury in Week 10 against Syracuse resulted in Jamie Newman starting the last four games. We all know the Newman experiment never grew legs in the NFL - recently landing in the CFL after less than a month on an NFL practice squad. But Clawson did not have that memo in hand prior to the 2019 season. Instead of rightfully restoring Hartman's rights to his offense, Clawson - placing Sam's development at risk - settled on mediocrity with Newman under center. When Newman bailed on Wake by transferring to Georgia, Hartman submitted the worst example of his last six seasons.
Entering the '21 season, the sparkle on an NFL future for Hartman had faded to a dusty gray. When Donovan Greene, the prized signing from Wake's 2019 class, was lost for the season with an offseason ACL injury and superstud RB Kenneth Walker III transferred out to Michigan State, few expected Hartman to succeed. But Sam had other plans. Rewriting the Wake record books, in addition to throwing for 4,228 yards and 39 TDs, Hartman unveiled a new wrinkle to his game with 7.31 FPG on pure rushing volume.
| HEIGHT | 6' 3" | SHUTTLE | 4.41 seconds |
| WEIGHT | 210 lbs | VERTICAL | 30.0" |
| 40 TIME | 4.65 seconds |
Grayson McCall fashioned his success with his legs while playing ball in Indian Trail, North Carolina. With an average of 75.8 rushing YPG and 1.05 TDs/game, McCall overcame only narrowly completing half of his passing attempts to lead Porter Ridge to a 27-15 record over his final three seasons.
Wait, is this kid even worth our attention? It's an entirely reasonable line of questioning when the discussion surrounds a Group of Five QB with, to put it mildly, a sketchy statistical high school profile.
As expected for a prospect with a spotty high school profile, the scouting reports were all over the place on McCall. They ranged from going unranked (ESPN) to actually collecting a pair of two-star evaluations that can only be considered the sharpest of analysis (Rivals and 247). But the seeds of development were planted during his final two seasons in HS, let's take a look:
By themselves, the production above can be found from prospects across the country. However, compare them to the numbers from his first two seasons and the development is noteworthy. Clearly devoting himself to private QB coaching leading up to the 2020 season, let's shift to the data from McCall's first two seasons at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina:
One of the more promising developments from McCall is seeing his reliance on ground production aggresively displaced by success through the air. McCall has missed a couple games during his Chanticleer career due to bumps-and-bruises picked up while running the ball. The result may be a slight reduction to his FPG bottom line, but that is precisely what the future will hold for him upon entering the NFL. It's enough that we know he is capable of using his legs, when needed.
As one of only two QBs returning to school for the 2022 season to average a combined coverage scheme rank below 20 (C.J. Stroud), it's immediately obvious McCall is far more than a small school flash-in-the-pan:
One of the most difficult challenges in football scouting is to analyze a QB a year out. The improvement/regression curves are far too erratic to land on a reliable evaluation. What we can do is look for the presence of general but vital traits: arm strength, accuracy, composure and leadership. In the case of McCall, the young man checks every box. That's all that we can ask at this stage in the process.
Now let's examine the data from his first two seasons at Porter Ridge HS:
Unlike Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, McCall did not attend one of the top high school powerhouses in the country. As a high school freshman, Grayson watched as Porter Ridge posted a 1-11 record. Even if we look past McCall throwing one TD vs. six INTs and only completing 32% of his attempts as a freshman, he only averaged 94.4 passing YPG 0.85 TDs vs. 0.46 TDs over his final 39 games with the Pirates.
All of that said, we've seen more than enough in McCall's development to completely disregard this early data.
After profiling mainstream talents in Young and Stroud, the first curveball addition to the list of top 2023 NFL Draft prospects at QB comes to us from McCall out of Coastal Carolina.
When McCall finished a redshirt season in 2019, Coastal Carolina had just compiled a 13-23 overall record (36.1 winning percentage) and 6-18 record against Sun Belt opponents (22.2%) over their first three seasons as an FBS program. Everything changed when McCall took over the offense.
With a 21-2 overall record (91.3%) and 14-1 against Sun Belt opponents (93.3%) in games started during McCall's two seasons, Grayson came away with back-to-back Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year honors. As is obviously apparent, the growth displayed by McCall is simply staggering.
| HEIGHT | 6' 6" | SHUTTLE | 4.12 seconds |
| WEIGHT | 226 lbs | VERTICAL | 32 1/8" |
| 40 TIME | 4.94 seconds |
Tanner McKee led the Pac-12 in completion percentage as a redshirt freshman last season (65.4%). In only his fourth career start, McKee led Stanford to an overtime upset over third-ranked Oregon in Eugene. In addition to sharp throws and excellent touch, McKee also provided evidence in high school of opening up his ground game after becoming more comfortable within the system:
Even if current arm strength limitations never allow him to develop into a third-level assassin, McKee's accuracy alone should translate into quite the weapon. McKee may end up returning to school after the 2022 season but, should he display aggressive coverage scheme improvements this season, his round-about path could land him in the NFL earlier than expected. His immediate success in Year 1 with Stanford was very promising:
It should be noted that McKee is still growing into his massive frame. Standing 6-foot-6, Tanner could easily add another 15 pounds without negatively affecting his play. Since McKee reportedly relied on lifting concrete blocks attached to poles during his missionary time in Brazil, packing on that additional muscle is an absolute must. McKee also suffered quite a scare early last season. A simple biopsy of a mole on top of his head was determined to be cancerous melanoma. However, after removing the affected area and nearby lymph nodes, tests brought back the good news that he was cancer-free.
The most considerable downside in McKee's game is in the arm strength department. He completely lacked the ability to connect on throws traveling at least 30 yards last season. Until we see evidence of packing on that additional muscle, McKee's game must be focused at being limited to a depth of no more than 20 yards.
Deep limitations may seem to significantly cap McKee's upside, but we've seen a number of QBs overcome that exact limitation in their early career and we also just witnessed a QB with a arm strength handicap drafted in the first round (Mac Jones). Like Jones, McKee's current skill set centers around impeccable accuracy. But McKee still has quite a bit of work to do in his coverage scheme recognition/success:
The only QBs that will draw considerable interest and are guaranteed to be available for the '23 Draft are JT Daniels, Brennan Armstrong, Jake Haener, Hendon Hooker, Kedon Slovis and Stetson Bennett. Each of the five QB names expected to offer the highest upside (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Grayson McCall, Spencer Rattler, Dillon Gabriel and Sam Hartman) could all ultimately choose to return to school for the '23 season. And, even if all five of those QBs declare, we can bank on more NFL teams searching for a QB than will be available. When those teams come calling, they will be left choosing from a potential list that includes Cam Rising, Taulia Tagovailoa, Phil Jurkovec, Tanner Mordecai, Devin Leary and McKee. Guess what? All six could also choose to return to school for the 2024 season.
Choosing to highlight a high-upside talent that, unlike the other four QBs analyzed in this guide, also profiles as the size prototype of a future NFL QB, the dart landed on McKee. With impressive size and surprising agility, McKee has only played 10 games for the Cardinal since graduating from Centennial High School after the 2017 season. He devoted the next two years of his life to a mission trip, apparently failing to allow him enough time back in the U.S. to pass along his full date of birth.
| HEIGHT | 6' 3" | SHUTTLE | 4.56 seconds |
| WEIGHT | 218 lbs | VERTICAL | 30.5" |
| 40 TIME | 4.85 seconds |
Let's dive right in by checking out the career data from C.J. Stroud:
The numbers Stroud generated in high school are nearly identical to those he managed during his early, three-game struggles at Ohio State when he nearly lost his job. The nuclear detonation of awesome excess and statistical efficiency over the rest of the season (ROS) ultimately led to Jack Miller III transferring to Florida and Quinn Ewers to Texas. Nobody saw that level of production coming. And no QB returning to school for the '22 season can touch the coverage scheme profile assembled by Stroud. In fact, only two returning QBs compiled an average scheme rank under 20: Stroud and Coastal Carolina's Grayson McCall.
With one of the strongest, most accurate arms in the nation, prepare to invest in the excitement over Stroud's NFL future as a Cover 1 monster. Not to mention the fact that C.J. also paced all returning QBs with 0.73 FPs/Db last season. Of course, upon inserting the rushing FPG data, Stroud is unable to keep up with the outrageous video game numbers created by the country's top dual-threat QBs. But those rushing numbers rarely translate to the NFL.
Stroud kept his nose ahead of the pack vying to start for OSU, but the start of the '21 season did not go as planned for Stroud. While he eventually led OSU to victory in Week 1, Stroud found himself down 14-10 at the half against a Minnesota team that finished the '20 season with a 43% winning percentage. We have the knowledge in hand that that Golden Gophers' defense ended up as one of the top units in the country, but bedlam ensued after the Buckeyes and Stroud lost 35-28, in the Horseshoe, to Oregon. After his struggles continued the following week against Tulsa, Day made the decision to sit Stroud and rotate Miller and true freshman Kyle McCord in Week 4 against Akron.
With this devy profile compiled from all of 12 collegiate games to Stroud's name, the simple fact that he proceeded to establish himself as one of the top-five overall prospects ahead of the '23 Draft in only 67% of team games during his only season is extraordinary. Prior to Week 5, Stroud threw 2.7 TDs/INT, completed 62% of attempts and generated a 102.5 passer rating. Over the final nine games, Stroud connected on 12 TDs for each INT, his completion rate jumped up to 74% and his passer rating to 137.6.
Should we discount Stroud's numbers due to the presence of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave? Considering Stroud's clear No. 1 receiving option is/was Jaxon Smith-Njibga and that OSU will continue to, arguably, possess the top WR rotation in college football with JSN, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming and another incoming crop of talented true freshmen, that narrative will need to be set aside until Stroud ascends to the NFL.
With Dwayne Haskins departing to the NFL after the 2019 season, Ohio State HC Ryan Day set out to rebuild his QB room. He already had commitments from 2020 prospect Miller, 2021 prospect McCord and, later, happily accepted the transfer of Justin Fields from Georgia. A week after Day personally visited him in Rancho Cucamonga, California, Stroud made an official visit to Columbus. Two days later, C.J. committed and signed his national letter of intent to join Ohio State. It was also the very same day Miller signed his own NLI to join the Buckeyes.
As one of the highest-rated high school QBs in history, Fields would be the unquestioned starter for OSU during the '19 and '20 seasons. However, Miller, Stroud and even McCord had the '21 season underlined as their opportunity to become the next face of the Ohio State offense. Things were further muddied when another of the highest-ranked QBs in HS history, Ewers - then a member of their 2022 incoming class, reclassified to immediately become a Buckeye. A full-blown, four-headed open competition ensued.
| HEIGHT | 6' 0" | SHUTTLE | 4.18 seconds |
| WEIGHT | 194 lbs | VERTICAL | 30' 5/8" |
| 40 TIME | -- |
Bryce Young's football story began in 2014 when he was in seventh-grade, leading a squad of 12th-graders to the finals of a 7-on-7 tournament. It just so happens that the championship game of that tourney was played in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. It just so happens that the USC Trojans' coaching staff was in attendance. And it just so happens that Steve Sarkisian was serving his only full season as HC of USC at the time. Sarkisian was floored watching a 12-year-old Young not only lead a group of 17-year-olds, but doing so with the leadership and awareness that many collegiate true freshman QBs lack.
Young set the Alabama single-season marks and finished second in the country with 4,872 passing yards and 47 TDs last season. And don't read too much into the Cover 6 or Red Zone ranks below. We need to see more reps from him across from Cover 6 and Nick Saban's teams historically feed RBs with the short-yardage TDs in the Red Zone. Upon completion of his high school career - first two seasons at Cathedral High and then transferring for the final two at Mater Dei, Young compiled a 37-3 record as the starting QB (92.5% winning percentage).
Let's examine where Young wins:
We learn more from our defeats than our victories. While Young may have experienced a slight dropoff in efficiency during his five career losses as a starting QB, these numbers foretell that the spotlight is not too big for this young man:
Looking back to his most difficult defeat, the CFP National Championship to Georgia, with Jameson Williams joining John Metchie III with a torn ACL, Young still nearly carried his team to victory with a WR rotation of Slade Bolden, Traeshon Holden and true freshmen Ja'Corey Brooks and Agiye Hall. We saw composure beyond his years, consistently delivering balls into tight windows that should've been collected. And, after tossing for 412 yards, three TDs and adding another TD on the ground (44.8 FPs), we have more than enough evidence of success under the spotlight from Young in that SEC Championship game facing the same Georgia defense - the best college football had to offer.
After a season where he was honored with the 86th awarded Heisman Trophy, the Maxwell Award, Davey O'Brien Award, Manning Award, designation as the AP Player of the Year, SEC Offensive Player of the Year and as a consensus First Team All-American, should we view Young as the perfect prospect? Not quite yet. Young has a good amount of work to do against Cover 1 - man coverage underneath, single-high safety:
Young completed south of 50% of his throws, only managed 10% of his TDs on 21% of his dropbacks and threw 71% of his INTs against Cover 1. In addition, his YPA fell by 23% and his passer rating by 76%. However, expecting a 20-year-old in his first collegiate season as a starter to master the single coverage from SEC defenses is asking a bit much. This quote from Young informs us of his dedication to film study:
After losing his position with USC, Sarkisian's path took him to Alabama in 2016 as an analyst and interim OC, serving as the Atlanta Falcons' OC for two seasons and finally back to Tuscaloosa as the Tides' OC in 2019. At the time, Alabama had cold-shouldered Young, preferring to spend their time recruiting Carson Beck. Sarkisian put an end to that madness, devoting everything into luring Young out of the USC commitment he had verbalized on his 17th birthday.
Sarkisian sold Bryce and his father, Craig Young, on his offensive scheme as being nearly identical to the one he played in at Mater Dei. A system where TEs are utilized, where the QB is asked to go under center, at points, and one where different formations and protections come into play. A month after Sarkisian's visit on April 24th, Young made a final visit to USC. Three months later, Bryce took the 1,756-mile flight to Tuscaloosa and the rest, as they say, is history.
