2025 Sophomore RB Manifesto

I wanted to hate the 2024 RB class as they entered their sophomore seasons. And I sort of do — this article contains my two biggest sell candidates in all of dynasty. But it also includes a potential future league-winner, a forgotten-about player with fantasy RB1 chops, and my favorite low-key buy of the pre-NFL Draft period. And none of those players are Bucky Irving.

Much of the trick here is projecting how these sophomores — whose collective rookie-season disappearances I’ve previously speculated could set back the position’s depth for years to come — will interact with the incredible incoming 2025 rookie class. I’m almost certainly setting myself up for failure by releasing this article just over a week before the NFL Draft.

But unlike this year’s crop of sophomore WRs (whom I covered in detail here), Draft-related uncertainty has made most of these RBs very affordable across all formats. That’s especially notable given that Year 2 breakouts are even more common at the RB position, when the largest average production increase typically occurs.

This presents a massive opportunity to gain an edge via both careful analytical evaluation and tea leaves reading. So, before we examine each individual RB, let’s explore the most broadly predictive indicators for Year 2 production.

While I’ve got the numbers covered, CoachSpeak Index (and especially their premium Discord) was a massively helpful informational resource for all things tea leaves in this article. I also highly recommend you check out this recent article on Fantasy Points from CoachSpeak Index founder Greg Brainos, in which he leverages his insights to recommend the best-value NFL Draft Bets.

How To Predict Year 2 RB Breakouts (And Busts)

As usual, past production (including FPG, total fantasy points, rushing and receiving YPG, etc.) is highly predictive of future output. Recently, rookie production within a man/gap scheme rather than a zone-blocking scheme has been even more predictive, but I wouldn’t place high confidence in that wrinkle.^[1]

Volume — whether in the form of Expected Fantasy Points per Game (XFP/G), snap/route/target shares, or raw carries and targets — is similarly predictive of production. Volume is everything at the RB position.

Another critical point is that, unlike at WR, draft capital remains one of the most predictive data points for RBs heading into Year 2, ranking between snap share and target share. This is mainly because teams continue giving opportunities to highly drafted RBs early in their careers, and RB production is much more driven by opportunity than by skill or efficiency (compared to WRs). As a result, getting a read on an RB’s standing with his coaching staff is extremely important.

Efficiency stats (such as yards per carry, yards after contact per attempt, or missed tackles forced per attempt) are generally less predictive because they control away the most predictive factor (volume). Outside of extreme scenarios, we’ll need more of an argument than efficiency itself to determine whether an RB will see an increase in volume.

However, some efficiency stats appear more worth paying attention to for young RBs than for the position as a whole:

At least in recent seasons, yards before contact per attempt (YBCO/A) and stuff rate (inversely) stand out as being relatively more predictive for Year 2 RBs. This is intuitive; an RB getting a lot of yards before being hit indicates a combination of good vision, effective blocking, and a generally successfully designed run game. Teams that feel their run game is working are less likely to draft or sign a replacement RB after only one year.

Additionally, recent Year 2 explosions like those from Breece Hall (17.1 FPG), Jahmyr Gibbs (21.4 FPG), and De’Von Achane (22.6 FPG in games with Tua Tagovailoa) have been preceded by a lot of production on explosive runs (of 15+ yards) within their rookie seasons. Coaches are unsurprisingly motivated to get young RBs with game-breaking speed and playmaking ability more involved.

Keeping all of this in mind, let’s dive into every relevant incoming sophomore RB.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dynasty ADP: RB5 / Underdog ADP: RB9

In his five healthy games post-bye, Irving averaged 22.5 FPG (would have led all RBs across the full season) on 17.9 XFP/G (~RB6). He maintained this high-end RB1 pace and workload despite just a 58.7% snap share over this span (~RB22), with former OC Liam Coen going to great lengths to maximize Irving’s impact whenever he was on the field. That’s most apparent from the heavy designed usage he saw in the passing game.

It’s pretty easy to understand Coen’s thought process. In addition to what we touched on above, Irving was one of the NFL’s most explosive RBs in 2024 — ranking top-4 in all of YPC (5.42), MTF/A (0.26), and YACO/A (3.02), with all of this being very apparent on tape — so it’s not surprising that a forward-thinking OC like Coen made it a point to get Irving as involved as possible while minimizing “empty-calorie” snaps to reduce the risk of injury. Irving’s late-season usage is the perfect blueprint for how to get as much as possible out of a 192-pound running back.

If Coen were returning to the team in 2025, I’d be comfortable just copying and pasting Irving’s post-bye workload into his Year 2 projection. But with Coen taking the Jaguars’ HC job, we’re left with former pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard calling plays. I’m cautiously optimistic that Grizzard will follow suit — after all, he was on Coen’s staff and has already talked about wanting to get Irving and Rachaad White even more involved in the passing game (per the CoachSpeak Index Discord) — but there’s at least some uncertainty here, especially with Chris Godwin (who led all WRs with 22.0 receiving YPG on screens) also returning.

Zooming out to the full season, Irving averaged 14.4 FPG on 12.8 weighted opportunities per game (for a differential of +1.6). That doesn’t quite breach the outlier territory we identified for De’Von Achane last year (allowing us to predict a significant increase in his workload based on efficiency alone), but it is further evidence that Irving is an explosive player who provides positive value to his offense on each touch.

Given everything we’ve discussed, it makes a ton of sense that Irving received 17 of 18 backfield carries in the Wildcard game — the team knows he’s their best RB and wants the ball in his hands with the season on the line, regardless of how much Todd Bowles talks up White and Sean Tucker at every opportunity (again, per CoachSpeak Index). Irving’s Day 3 draft capital doesn’t concern me for this reason; if the Buccaneers are genuinely in love with all three backs, that leaves no room for them to draft another who would provide Irving with real competition, a notion further supported by the team having spent none of their pre-Draft visits on RBs.

We’re left with an immensely talented Year 2 RB whose raw production outpaces his peripherals. (Among rookie RBs since 2021, Irving ranks 2nd-best in rushing yards, 3rd-best in total fantasy points, and 5th-best in receiving YPG, but just 12th in snap share and 11th in route participation.) As we covered, the former is a bit more predictive than the latter, so I’m satisfied with the slight uncertainty discount Irving’s RB9 Underdog ADP provides relative to his post-bye role. I narrowly prefer the flexibility and additional insulation of holding the 1.02 in dynasty formats, but I’d still be very surprised if the Buccaneers were to select an RB within the first two days of the Draft.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Dynasty ADP: RB37 / Underdog ADP: RB47

Only one 49ers RB provided RB1-level fantasy production across his full games in 2024. It wasn’t Christian McCaffrey.

If Guerendo’s 17.9 FPG within this split were his full-season average, it would have led all RBs over the past six seasons. At face value that might seem like an absurd massaging of the data, but it seems less crazy when you consider that the only players to start games over him were the greatest RB of the current era (who happens to have missed 24 games over the past four seasons) and an incumbent veteran the team traded away this offseason.

As Max Toscano explains beautifully here, the 49ers place a ton of value on skill players who can perform multiple roles to create mismatches. Last season, Guerendo did a much better Christian McCaffrey impression — adding value both on the ground and in the receiving game — than Jordan Mason. And the 49ers seem to agree with me; they kept the RB who commanded an 11.4% target share within that same split (~RB8) and shipped away the one whose 9% TPRR ranked 2nd-worst among 59 qualifying backs.

It also doesn’t hurt that Guerendo is a 99th-percentile athlete who posted the 4th-best speed score of any RB to attend the NFL Scouting Combine since 2000. Hyper-athleticism makes an impact on RB fantasy production at the extremes, and we’ve already seen it translate whenever Guerendo has received a real workload.

But Guerendo is more than just a raw athlete. His 2.94 YBCO/A ranks behind only De’Von Achane among rookies in the Fantasy Points Data era, meaning he checks this additional box (discussed at the top of this article) as an apparent instant fit for Kyle Shanahan’s run scheme. And much of Guerendo’s production impressively came with star LT Trent Williams out of the lineup.

Of course, Guerendo, being a former Day 3 pick and having little raw volume and production to speak of across his full rookie season, means he’s a low-percentage bet. But all of this is more than priced into his RB47 Underdog ADP and dynasty valuation of a late rookie 2nd. And if the bet does hit, we’ve already seen that the payoff is that of a fantasy RB1.

Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants

Dynasty ADP: RB18 / Underdog ADP: RB25

Among 72 rookie RBs drafted since 2021, Tracy played the 3rd-most snaps (607), ran the 5th-most routes (254), and amassed the 7th-most volume as measured by total XFP (188.3). He led the Giants’ backfield in snaps during every game after Devin Singletary’s early-season injury (from Week 5 on). For comparison, Bucky Irving out-snapped Rachaad White only five times.

This is all unbelievably impressive for a 5th-round rookie in just his third-ever season playing the RB position, having converted from WR after his fourth year in college. Former Round 1 picks Najee Harris and Bijan Robinson were the only rookie RBs since 2021 to see the field more than Tracy. This was despite Tracy earning the 6th-worst PFF pass-blocking grade among 45 qualifying RBs; the Giants were clearly invested in getting him reps to a degree we rarely see for such unheralded prospects.

But that’s the rub: playing time alone isn’t particularly predictive for Day 3 picks, and I’d argue that’s especially the case for a bottom-3 team in a lost season (that torturously watched their former star RB reach 2,000 rushing yards for a division rival on his way to winning Offensive Player of the Year and the Super Bowl). We’ve seen a recent pattern of tanking teams (intelligently) taking low-risk shots at the position on Day 3 before investing more heavily if they aren’t wowed. And I’m very afraid that’s the case with Tracy; among the list of Year 2 busts below, he averaged the fewest missed tackles forced (0.18) and yards after contact per attempt (2.52).

With the 34th overall pick, multiple selections in Round 3, and a Saquon Barkley-sized chip on John Mara’s shoulder, the Giants are among the best-positioned teams to spend a Day 2 pick on arguably the best RB class since 2017. That isn’t anywhere near priced-in enough to Tracy’s RB18 dynasty startup ADP nor his RB25 Underdog ADP, considering that he averaged just 13.3 FPG (~RB21) after taking over the backfield in Week 5.

I’d happily sell Tracy for the rookie 2.05 or earlier; this RB class is deep enough that I expect talented RBs selected on Day 2 to be available that late. I honestly want him off all of my teams before the NFL Draft, though I’ll of course be starting closer to “market” prices around the 1.12 to 2.01. This misalignment between the market (per DynastyDataLab) and my willing sell price makes him one of my biggest sell candidates.

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Dynasty ADP: RB36 / Underdog ADP: RB55

You won’t find much in the data to be optimistic about for Blake Corum.

Among all drafted RBs since 2021, he ranked outside the top-40 in snap share (12.5%), FPG (2.2), rushing YPG (13.8), and just about every other predictive metric. But in Sean McVay’s backfield, vibes are often just as or more important than data. After all, Kyren Williams played only 138 snaps as a rookie (just 22 more than Corum) before McVay fed him 18.9 XFP/G on a 76.8% snap share the following season, both the most by any Year 2 RB in Fantasy Points Data history.

We must be prepared for any member of McVay’s backfield to take on an unbelievably valuable workhorse role. He’s produced a fantasy league-winning RB in four of the past eight seasons, the most of any HC since he was hired by the Rams.

I’d still want to take Corum seriously even if there were no good vibes around him; McVay has long been willing to change up his backfield without warning. But I’m already convinced he plans to use Corum a lot more this season. In the below clip, he sounds inspired by his protégé Liam Coen’s success in integrating rookie RB Bucky Irving into the offense, mentioning in the same appearance that he wants to change how he teaches the offense to the “totality of the group” in this year’s OTAs.

This reads to me as McVay blaming himself for failing to get Corum fully up to speed with the playbook in his first offseason. That tracks with Corum’s incredibly weird usage; he played the entirety of the second or third drive in most games but was scarcely involved otherwise. Though McVay was once known not to script early-game drives, I wouldn’t be surprised if this reflected a weekly plan for Corum to get in on a handful of specific plays he’d prepared for before giving way to a better-learned Kyren Williams after the game plan opens up.

If we write off Corum’s lack of involvement in this way, it becomes easy to imagine him at worst forcing a true committee in 2025. Our film charter Zach Swails recently remarked he did everything on tape that Williams did while providing better tackle-breaking ability and ball security, while he graded out as Brett Whitefield’s RB1 in last year’s rookie class.

Corum is precisely what a true post-hype sleeper looks like. He has the same contingent bellcow upside in the event of an injury to Williams as he had last offseason (when he was a Round 10 redraft pick) and can be readily acquired for a late 2nd in dynasty. He’ll be one of my favorite post-NFL Draft targets with any of my rookie picks that fall outside whatever tier forms containing this year’s Day 2 RBs.

Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Dynasty ADP: RB25 / Underdog ADP: RB41

I wouldn’t entirely blame you for writing off any RB whose team extended its 29-year-old incumbent starter in the middle of his rookie season. But there’s no guaranteed money on James Conner’s contract after 2025. In addition, HC Jonathan Gannon and GM Monti Ossenfort have said they’re “very excited” about Benson and believe he and Conner can provide the Cardinals with “two starting backs” this year (per the CoachSpeak Index Discord), so I’m still taking him somewhat seriously as a dynasty asset.

From a purely statistical perspective, the best argument for Benson is that he commanded the highest draft capital (former 66th overall pick) of any Year 2 RB who will see the field in 2025. Over the previous three draft classes, all nine RBs selected earlier than Benson reached at least 11.0 FPG in either Year 1 or Year 2. That includes players like James Cook and Zach Charbonnet, who similarly failed to immediately displace an incumbent. As we discussed above, draft capital is even more predictive for Year 2 than a rookie RB’s total rush attempts.

Benson also ranks 3rd-best among rookies since 2021 in YBCO/A (2.43), a stat reflective of his effective fit in the run game that has some additional predictiveness for sophomore RBs. His analytical resume as a runner in college was also genuinely impressive. But that’s about where the positives end.

By the most broadly predictive stats, Benson appears as a more expensive version of Blake Corum, ranking outside the top-35 in snap share (16.6%) and FPG (3.6). Almost as discouraging, he played only five snaps and didn’t run a single route on 3rd down all season, always giving way to sub-replacement-level options like Emari Demercado and DeeJay Dallas. It’s never a great sign when a coaching staff feels forced to sub in a UDFA for passing downs, and doubly so given Benson was already unproven as a pass-catcher in college. Anything more than a two-down career ceiling would be a massive projection at this point.

With that capped upside in mind, I’d currently prefer to re-roll Benson for a rookie 2nd, which should provide access to another Day 2 pick in a much stronger RB class. However, I’ll be much more in at Benson’s redraft cost given his contingent upside and the latent likelihood of Conner (who turns 30 years old before the season) hitting the age cliff.

Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins

Dynasty ADP: RB41 / Underdog ADP: RB51

I frankly can’t find many particularly encouraging indicators from Wright’s rookie season. Though the Dolphins’ rushing attack was largely dysfunctional, Wright was less effective on the ground than teammate De’Von Achane by YPC (3.66 to 4.47) and YBCO/A (1.46 to 2.25) while getting stuffed at the 7th-highest rate (55.9%).

That’s to say nothing of Achane’s iron grip on work in the receiving game. Even if he were injured, I’m not sure Wright would be the favorite to take over work on screens; TE Jonnu Smith’s 22 designed targets ranked top-10 among all players. And this is notably where most of Achane’s fantasy value came from:

At best, the Dolphins sound committed to improving their offensive line through the Draft (per the CoachSpeak Index Discord). In that case, Wright would be the most likely to absorb rushing work in the event of an Achane injury for a creative play-caller whose offense led the NFL in YPC two seasons ago. But that’s assuming that Wright himself survives the Draft. In any case, there are better contingent upside bets.

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills

Dynasty ADP: RB44 / Underdog ADP: RB50

James Cook is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2025, and Bills GM Brandon Beane seems unwilling to meet Cook’s $15 million-per-year asking price for an extension. This likely puts the Bills in the market to add another RB in the NFL Draft, but it also makes me feel inclined to give Ray Davis a second look.

When Cook missed Week 6 with a toe injury, the Bills deployed Davis in a workhorse role, amassing 20 of the backfield’s 24 carries and a 12% target share while receiving every backfield snap inside the 10-yard line. However, Ty Johnson notably played eight snaps on 3rd down in that game (to Davis’s zero), and aside from that impressive 18.2 fantasy point performance, Davis never again cracked even a 35% snap share until a meaningless Week 18 game.

Johnson only grew more involved from Weeks 7 through 17, out-snapping Davis (30.0% to 21.7%) due to his passing down role while Davis occasionally spelled Cook on early downs. During the fog of the season, I remember being surprised the Bills declined to make more of an effort to get Davis involved after he flashed. But now in hindsight, it’s understandable they didn’t want to take carries away from Cook; he’s been the 2nd-most efficient RB in the NFL on a per-carry basis since entering the league.

And honestly, Davis’s full-season efficiency metrics pale brutally in comparison. Among 33 rookies with at least 50 rushing attempts since 2021, he ranked 25th in YPC (3.91), 23rd in explosive run rate (3.5%), and 22nd in YBCO/A (1.36). His production and volume metrics are similarly uninspiring, ranking just 26th among the rookie sample in rushing YPG (26.0) and 24th in XFP/G (5.5).

With the Bills having re-signed Johnson through 2026 and Davis needing to survive two separate draft classes between now and then to even have a shot at starting, I’ve talked myself out of having any genuine interest. At best, he’ll be a fine — though not spectacular, given the presence of Johnson in the receiving game and Josh Allen at the goal line — handcuff option in redraft should the Bills add no competition.

Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets

Dynasty ADP: RB40 / Underdog ADP: RB56

New Jets HC Aaron Glenn has described his vision of the Jets’ backfield as a “1-2-3 punch with the RBs that we have” (per CoachSpeak Index). This refers to Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and fellow Year 2 RB Isaiah Davis, but insider Rich Cimini also made waves by suggesting the Jets could draft RB Ashton Jeanty with the 7th overall pick. I don’t personally buy that last part at all, but it’s illustrative of how in flux this backfield is.

Despite the uncertainty (and at the risk of repeating myself), I don’t believe Allen has any more juice than the rest of the trio of Day 3 handcuffs he forms along with our previous two RBs. His rookie season ranked back-to-back with Ray Davis by XFP/G (5.5) and snap share (26.5%), and he split touches perfectly evenly with Isaiah Davis in their Week 14 game without Hall (16 to 16).

In the (small) sample we got, Allen’s 3.63 YPC ranked 4th-worst of 33 qualifying rookie RBs since 2021, and well behind Hall (4.19). His 1.1% explosive run rate also ranks 3rd-worst over that timeframe. There just isn’t much to latch onto here aside from a few decent performances early in the season (now two coaching regimes ago).

Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers

Dynasty ADP: RB42 / Underdog ADP: RB97

After tearing his ACL in December of 2024, Brooks is unlikely to see the field for the entirety of 2025. This was a re-tear of the same ligament he tore a year earlier in college.

Even before Brooks’ re-injury occurred, the Panthers were so impressed with incumbent Chuba Hubbard that they extended him with guaranteed money through 2026. At best, Brooks could have a chance to compete with him in 2026. That’s if the Panthers don’t reinvest in the position; they’ve already used four top-30 visits on RBs.

Along with Tyrone Tracy, Brooks is the second of my two biggest sell candidates. At best, he could gain some value as his return approaches (and only if positive news begins flowing in) between now and next offseason. Alternatively, you could trade him away right now for a 2026 2nd, which is guaranteed to gain value between now and next offseason, and is invulnerable to negative news. I highly suggest you do this despite how high I’ve previously been on Brooks as a talent.

Marshawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers

Dynasty ADP: RB48 / Underdog ADP: RB67

Due to a tragically comedic string of injuries — from a preseason hamstring strain to a Week 2 ankle sprain to a case of appendicitis the week he was scheduled to return from IR — Lloyd recorded only six carries as a rookie, leaving us without much to evaluate aside from his team’s offseason moves.

The Packers declined to re-sign A.J. Dillon and have among the lowest market-implied odds to add an RB in the first two rounds. Then, on April 1 (per the CoachSpeak Index Discord), HC Matt LaFleur remarked that he’d love to see what Lloyd could do in the passing game. That’s particularly notable to me after Josh Jacobs commanded just an 8.6% target share (his lowest since his rookie season), with the combination of “Chris Brooks” and “Emmanuel Wilson” out-snapping him on 3rd and 4th downs.

Though Lloyd didn’t frequently catch passes in college (setting a career-high of just 18 receptions in 2022), his advanced metrics were among the best in the class. Last offseason, the team viewed him as their new version of Aaron Jones and was enamored with his pass-catching upside and route-running (sound familiar?). Before Lloyd’s string of injuries forced the team to make Jacobs their bellcow, LaFleur’s comments and history both pointed to a committee approach.

There’s a real chance the Packers could simply run back their original 2024 backfield plan, especially if Lloyd looks healthy and impresses in OTAs. When the list of 2025 rookies I’m enamored with starts running dry in the late 3rd, I’ve been actively shopping those picks in exchange for a shot on a talented RB who I already know went on Day 2.