My goal for this article is to cover every nook and cranny for all remaining matchups after the practice week concludes Friday while also making it easy to consume so you know everything you need to know after a 10-15-minute read.
PS: Here’s a look at the main abbreviations I’ll be using:
ASS: Fantasy Points Data’s Average Separation Score metric.
FP/RR: Fantasy points per route run
TP/RR: Targets per route run
YPRR: Yards per route run
RS: Route share
FRTS: First-read target share
FP/DB: Fantasy points per dropback
PROE: Pass/pressure rate over expectation
YBC/Att: Yards before contact per attempt
XFP: Expected fantasy points (based on snaps, routes, touches, etc.)
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans, 4:30 p.m., Sat.
FANTASY INJURIES:
CHARGERS: JK Dobbins was limited this week with an ankle issue and Gus Edwards (ankle) has been practicing this week, so he should play, since it’s the playoffs. Josh Palmer is out, so DJ Chark will fill in. Top nickel corner JaSir Taylor is doubtful, which could help John Metchie in the slot.
TEXANS: They are down starting LG Shaq Mason, which is not great for Joe Mixon.
TOP MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT:
CHARGERS:
It’s not the easiest matchup, since the Texans give up the sixth-fewest passing YPG (220.5), but QBs have 2 TDs or more in 11-of-17 games against Houston, who give up the third-most passing TDs per game (1.9) in the league. Houston has also run zone coverage on 72.5% of their dropbacks the last 7 games, and in his last eight games, JUSTIN HERBERT has averaged 8.24 YPA (9th-best) and a 74.4% completion percentage (11th) against zone. He also has the 11th highest aDOT and throws the 6th highest catchable ball rate (82.7%) against the coverage.
LADD MCCONKEY is a lot better against man coverage, and the Texans play a lot of zone, so his target share may drop a little as he’s targeted on only 23% of his routes against zone, down from 28% vs. man coverage. However, he gets a good individual matchup inside often on slot CB Eric Murray, who is giving up 0.44 FP per route run, which is the most by a starting CB playing on Wild Card weekend. They won't likely travel one of their outstanding outside CBs to cover him, as well. Houston gives up the 14th-fewest receiving YPG (74.4) and the seventh-fewest receptions (102) to slot receivers, but also they’ve given up the most receiving TDs (16) to inside wideouts, and Ladd’s hit 4+ receptions in 12 of his last 13.
The Texans give up the sixth-fewest YPRR (1.78) to outside receivers, but Houston has also run zone coverage on 72.5% of their dropbacks their last seven games, and QUENTIN JOHNSTON is better against zone. To that point, they run Cover 3 and 4 50% of the time, and Johnston averages a strong .55 FP/RR against those coverages. He should see a lot of Kamari Lassiter, who is solid, but Johnston’s confidence should be high coming off the season finale against the Raiders, easily setting career-highs in targets (14), receptions (13), and receiving yards (186). Johnston has at least a 16% target share in six straight games, which is a trend that will continue with Josh Palmer out. On the downside, he will likely see a lot of top CB Derek Stingley, so QJ won’t likely go off, but it’s not going to be a shadow situation.
TEXANS:
- LA has been a middling matchup for outside WRs, giving up the 14th-fewest receiving YPG (96.4) and the 16th-most receptions (135), but last week Jakobi Meyers tagged them for 9/123/1 receiving, and NICO COLLINS should get a ton of looks throughout the game, one in which they should be throwing all four quarters. There’s not a bad schematic matchup for Collins, but LA uses two-high coverage at the third-highest rate (58.8%), and Nico averages a strong 2.38 YPRR against the look, so he should be good for 5/75 at least.
TOP MATCHUPS TO FEAR:
CHARGERS:
- Houston has been a tougher matchup for TEs, giving up the seventh-fewest receptions per game (4.3) and the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (41.7) to the position, but WILL DISSLY at least was back to his normal role in the season finale with 5/42/1 ron 6 targets, and no other TE garnered a single target last week. No Josh Palmer could mean an extra target or two.
TEXANS: None of note.
THE REST:
CHARGERS:
- I believe the Chargers will win, which is a big key for J.K. DOBBINS, who needs volume, especially in a tougher matchup, which this is. Houston gave up the 11th-fewest rushing YPG (86.2), and the eighth-fewest receiving YPG (28.0), but they’re not a brick wall, either. They give up the 16th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (1.99), and they allowed 14.6+ FP and 76+ scrimmage yards to individual RBs in three straight games until a banged up Tony Pollard got only 22/62 rushing against them last week (in a terrible offense with two bad QBs playing). The Texans also allowed 4.9 YPC and a 58% success rate against opponents’ man/gap blocking runs over the final 10 weeks of the season, and the Chargers used man/gap blocking on 59% of Dobbins’ runs this year. Dobbins should be more than fine if he can score, but keep in mind GUS EDWARDS (ankle) has been practicing this week, so he should return and could vulture a short one, and Dobbins was also limited this week with an ankle issue.
TEXANS:
It’s fairly pathetic to see the Texans in the playoffs, since it’s been a tough year for C.J. STROUD, who accounted for multiple TDs in just six of 17 games this year. Stroud was solid against man coverage this year, but he’s been generally better against zone in his short career, and LA runs zone over 75% of the time. Of course, they also use two-high safety coverages on 59% of their opponents dropbacks, which is third-most, and Stroud averages just 0.40 FP per dropback, which is tied with Anthony Richardson for 32nd. LA has allowed multiple TD passes in three of their last four games and in six of their last eight, so Stroud should be good for 2 TDs, but they give up the eighth-fewest passing YPG (221.1) and the 12th-fewest FPG (16.9) to QBs, so he might not surpass 225 yards given the lack of talent he’s working with at receiver.
It’s not the greatest schematic matchup for DALTON SCHULTZ, who averages a terrible .98 YPRR against two-high coverage, which LA runs at the third-highest rate (58.8%). However, you generally like Schultz a lot more against zone, and LA is zone-heavy, and they have allowed the 13th-most receptions per game (5.4). They do also give up the fewest receiving TDs per game (.1) to TEs), and Brock Bowers got a so-so 4/50 receiving on 9 targets in this matchup last week, but he did score a TD. I’d have to think that Schultz is a good bet to be the second-leading receiver for Houston this week, as he’s been down the stretch, but he’s not that inspiring, and only three TEs have hit 50 yards against the Chargers this season (Bowers (twice), Trey McBride, and Travis Kelce).
The Chargers give up the 13th-most receiving YPG (76.9) and the 10th-fewest receptions (109) to slot receivers, which is a positive for JOHN METCHIE. Top nickel corner JaSir Taylor is doubtful, which could help Metchie, but LA uses two-high coverage at the third-highest rate (58.8%), and he averages a terrible .90 YPRR against the look. He’s competing with weak options like ROBERT WOODS and XAVIER HUTCHINSON, who hasn’t gone over 31 receiving yards in 32 career games, so Metchie at least has the most upside of their wideouts other than Collins. That is, unless DIONTAE JOHNSON surprises, and Johnson ran a route on 53% of the team’s pass plays last week.
The Texans are going to need everything they can get out of JOE MIXON, but LA hasn't allowed an individual back to top 15.1 FP in five straight games. Of course, they haven’t played a running game of note other than Tampa Bay (LV, NE, Den, TB, and KC). Los Angeles gives up the 12th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.84) and the 15th-fewest rushing YPG (92.7), but it is a solid schematic matchup for him, since LA allowed 4.46 YPC (ninth-most) and a 55% success rate (fifth-highest) when facing zone-blocking runs this season, and Houston is zone heavy. They also gave up the fifth-most receptions per game (5.0) to RBs, and he hit 5.8+ FP as a receiver in five straight games in Weeks 10-15 (but only 3/27 receiving in Weeks 16-17). He should get 20+ touches, and it’s hard not to produce with that kind of volume.
Looking BETTER than usual: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Nico Collins
Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.
Reach plays: Quentin Johnston
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens, 8 p.m., Sat.
FANTASY INJURIES:
STEELERS: None of note.
RAVENS: Zay Flowers (knee) is out, so Nelson Agholor will see an increased role. He was inactive last week, and Tylan Wallace played 71% of the snaps once Flowers left the game and was second in WR route share (58%).
TOP MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT:
STEELERS:
- The Ravens allow the fourth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.66) and the fewest rushing YPG (63.8), but they also give up the fourth-most receiving YPG (39.6) to the position, and JAYLEN WARREN has been more productive than Najee Harris down the stretch with 64+ scrimmage yards in seven of his last nine, including last week’s stinker. Warren caught all nine of his targets in this matchup for 71 yards, so he put up 16 FP just in the passing game against Baltimore, but he also had 23/89 rushing, so he should at least be good for 10+ FP in this one even if he doesn’t score.
RAVENS:
The Steelers struggle mightily against zone blocking run concepts, giving up 5.0 YPC, and DERRICK HENRY leads all RBs in YPC off of zone blocking with 6.4 YPC, and he made it look very easy in the second matchup back in Week 16, putting up 24/162 rushing and 2/27 receiving, He ran fairly well on them in the first meeting, but got only 13 carries. The Steelers give up the 14th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.10), 4.1 YPC, and the ninth-fewest rushing YPG (83.5) to RBs, so it’s not a cake matchup, and they will make adjustments I’m sure. But it’s also not a scary assignment, so Henry should be more than fine with 20+ touches barring an injury or shocking developments.
He is on a roll with a TD in six straight games, and it’s a good matchup coverage-wise for MARK ANDREWS, who Andrews averages a strong 2.14 YPRR against single-high coverage, which they use at the highest rate. He posted a combined 6/59/1 receiving in two games against the Steelers this year, but his role should expand with Zay Flowers out.
Rather than try to support NELSON AGHOLOR, who could always pop and surprise, or TYLAN WALLACE, the safe bet is ISAIAH LIKELY. He’s now had three of his six best route shares in the last three games, and Likely has been involved on at least 53% of the pass plays in three straight games. He posted a strong 7/104/1 in this matchup this season, and Likely averages a very decent 1.77 YPRR against single-high, which Pittsburgh uses at the highest rate. So he’s pretty easy to get behind as a sneaky play in any format.
TOP MATCHUPS TO FEAR:
STEELERS:
- The Ravens allow the fourth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.66) and the fewest rushing YPG (63.8), so it’s a tougher spot for NAJEE HARRIS. Harris did run on them in the first matchup, rushing 18 times for 63 yards, but his 27/105 rushing in the two games isn’t anything special. He at least added 4/30 receiving, but that was in just the first game back in mid-November. In mid-December, he had 0 catches on only one target. Harris is pretty tough to predict right now, but it’s fair to expect underwhelming production unless he can surprise with 3-4 catches and/or score.
RAVENS:
- Mr. Henry has been a little busier in the passing game lately with 2 receptions in three straight, but JUSTICE HILL is back this week. Unfortunately for Hill, the Ravens as 9.5-point home favorites does not bode well for his chances of getting snaps as their hurry-up back. And now KEATON MITCHELL is also in the mix.
THE REST:
STEELERS:
It’s not a horrible schematic matchup for RUSSELL WILSON, who excels against man coverage (0.58 FP per dropback vs. 0.34 FP/DB vs. zone), which Baltimore runs more than most (11th most). But the Ravens used zone coverages on 63% of Wilson’s dropbacks in Week 16 and 68% of the time in Week 11, and Russ totaled only 422/2 passing and 7/28 rushing for 12.4 FPG in those two matchups, so he’ll need volume here to come through, since the Ravens have cleaned up their pass defense down the stretch. They have limited passers to 223 or fewer passing yards in seven of their last eight games, which includes those two matchups against Wilson. He’ll need a big effort from George Pickens to come through, but Pickens has three or fewer receptions in three straight, so he’s not easy to back. Russ has at least run for 128 yards and a TD in his last five games.
He’ll see a lot of CB Brandon Stephens, who has been the weak link of the Ravens passing game, and GEORGE PICKENS did put up 8/89 receiving on a season-high 12 targets in his lone matchup against the Ravens in Week 11, often on Stephens. Stud corner Marlon Humphrey has been playing inside more, so Pickens has a shot with the Ravens giving up the ninth-most receiving YPG (112.7) and the 10th-most receptions (143) to outside receivers. But given how he came up small last week with just 1 catch for zero yards on 6 targets (and 4 catchable targets), and how he’s caught 3 or fewer passes in three consecutive games, he’s volatile with a lean toward downside against an improved Ravens defense that allowed -6.1 schedule adjusted FPG to opposing wide receivers (second-fewest) over the final 10 weeks.
Baltimore gives up the ninth-most receiving YPG (56.6) and the 10th-most receptions per game (5.5) to TEs, but most of their issues against TEs have been cleared up in the second half of the season, and PAT FREIERMUTH had a terrible 5/36 receiving on 5 targets in his two games against Baltimore this season. The one positive is that Jordan Akins got 6/61/1 in this matchup last week, and Freiermuth in his last two games has 19 targets and 15/145/1 receiving, so he’s been hot while Pickens has been cold.
I’m willing to take a shot with CALVIN AUSTIN, who had 5 targets and at least 4 catches in three straight games before last week’s no-show against the Bengals. He’s been involved on at least 70% of the Steelers pass plays in four straight games, and they should be throwing the whole game as 9.5-point underdogs. I’d expect him to get 4-5 looks in this must-win game where they’ll need big plays.
RAVENS:
Pittsburgh has a good defense, but they did still give up the seventh-most passing YPG (244.2) and they gave up multiple passing TDs in five of their last six games, and they used single-high looks on 77% and 80% of Jackson’s dropbacks in their two meetings this season, and LAMAR JACKSON leads all QBs in FP/DB (0.64) and passer rating (116.8) against one-high safety coverages, so Lamar should get his. Of course, no Zay Flowers hurts, since Flowers was responsible for 33% of Lamar’s passing yards in this matchup this year (139 of 414 yards). Lamar threw 4 TD passes in the two games with 13/68 rushing, but he put up 207/3 passing three weeks ago on only 23 attempts, and Lamar has multiple TD passes in 10 of his last 11 games and had a league-leading 8.6% TD rate, so he’s fine. No Flowers may prompt him to run a few more times as well.
The Steelers use the most single-high coverage in the league, and RASHOD BATEMAN averages a poor 1.43 YPRR against the coverage. He did score against them last time out, but he’s managed just 3/44/1 on 8 targets in this matchup in two games. This week, Zay Flowers is out, which is kinda good for Bateman, but he’s also going to see a lot of Joey Porter, so I’m finding it very hard to get too excited. The Steelers give up the most receiving YPG (124.1) and the seventh-most receiving TDs (13) to outside WRs, and he should have a decent floor given his large role, at least.
Looking BETTER than usual: Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Jaylen Warren
Looking WORSE than usual: Najee Harris, Justice Hill
Reach plays: Calvin Austin
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., Sun.
FANTASY INJURIES:
BILLS: None of note.
BRONCOS: None of note.
TOP MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT:
BILLS:
- The Broncos give up the eighth-fewest YPRR (1.80) and the 16th-most receiving YPG (100.1) to outside receivers, and KEON COLEMAN led the team with an 82% route share in Week 17, but and he got 3/27/1 receiving on 7 targets. Denver runs the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (36.4%), and Coleman has been a man-beater all year, averaging a strong 2.10 YPPR against man. He had his season-long reception for 64 yards against the man-heavy Lions, so I see him popping for a big play or two.
BRONCOS:
- The Bills defense has devolved this season, and after being tough to throw on outside, they now give up the 10th-most passing YPG (241.2) and the eighth-most passing TDs per game (1.6) with QBs accounting for multiple TDs in eight of their last nine games. BO NIX is on a roll right now with multiple TD passes in seven of his last eight along with 126 yards rushing in his last four games. As for the schematic matchup, it’s solid, since Nix is okay against Cover 3, which the Bills use at the fifth-highest rate (54.7%). Perhaps most importantly, they’re 8.5-road underdogs with nothing to lose, so he’ll be slinging it all four quarters.
> TOP MATCHUPS TO FEAR:
BILLS: None of note.
BRONCOS: None of note.
THE REST:
BILLS:
The Broncos give up the seventh-most passing YPG (239.9) and the 16th-most passing TDs per game (1.4) to QBs, and they were lit up by Joe Burrow (412/3 passing) and Justin Herbert (284/2) in Weeks 16-17, but it’s not an ideal schematic matchup for JOSH ALLEN. Denver has run man on 40% of their defensive dropbacks since Week 14, and Allen sees a -3.7% completion percentage over expected (18th) against man along with a 67.9% catchable ball rate (23rd). Of course, Allen has averaged 8.3 rushing attempts in the playoffs in his career with 12, 8, and 8 attempts in his last three playoff games. And when he faced a man-heavy defense in the second half of the season, he ran (NYJ - 5/17/1, NE - 6/30, Det 11/68/2, and KC 12/55/1). This might be a game Allen has 4-5 designed runs or at least numerous plays in which he takes off running earlier in the down.
AMARI COOPER had just a 41% route share last time out, which should grow this week, and he had a great TD catch and he turned 3 targets into 3/56/1 against the Jets in their last meaningful game in Week 17. Cooper averages 1.88 YPRR against man, which is a little worse than Coleman but still solid, but Cooper’s generally been good against man in his career. But here’s the issue: they may ensure he sees the most of Patrick Surtain, or at least more than Coleman (who will also see Surtain).
Almost all of KHALIL SHAKIR’S big games have come against zone-heavy teams, and almost all of his so-so games have come against man-heavy teams, and Denver is man heavy, running it at the fifth-highest rate (36.4%). Shakir averages a so-so 1.67 YPRR against man, but the good news is Denver gives up the eighth-most receiving YPG (83.6) and the seventh-most receptions (129) to slot receivers, and Ladd McConkey got them for 6/87 back in Week 16.
Considering the tougher schematic matchup for Josh Allen, I’d have to think they will lean on the ground game, which may mean a lot of Allen runs, but also plenty of work for JAMES COOK. He may need volume with the Broncos giving up the fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.42), the fifth-fewest rushing YPG (78.2), to RBs. The one silver lining is they give up the ninth-most receiving YPG (37.7) to backs, and that’s been a trend all year, so hopefully for Cook people TY JOHNSON doesn’t come out as a serious weapon as he did the last time they faced a man-heavy team in Detroit in Week 15 (5/114 receiving).
BRONCOS:
The Bills use the fifth-highest rate of two-high coverage (54.7%), and COURTLAND SUTTON is poor against the look, averaging only 1.39 YPRR against it. Buffalo is still stingy on the outside yardage-wise, giving up the fifth-fewest receiving YPG (88.1) to outside WRs, but they do also give up the eighth-most receiving TDs (12) to outside receivers, and scoring is what Sutton does along with hitting double-digit FP in 10 straight games
The Broncos are a nightmare to figure out at all the skill positions but QB, but MARVIN MIMS has been on fire with 4 TDs in his last two games, totalling 13/154/4. Buffalo gives up the 11th-fewest receptions (125) and the 16th-fewest YPRR (1.89) to outside receivers, but Mims averages a strong 2.67 YPRR against two-high coverage, which they use at the fifth-highest rate (54.7%), and he’s definitely been their most consistent receiver after Sutton down the stretch, hitting 44+ receiving yards in six of his last seven. Keep in mind almost half (48%) of Mims’ targets come on designed plays like screens, and the Bills have allowed a 100% catch rate and 2.79 YPRR (sixth-most) to receivers on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Buffalo has been suspect against the run all year and they gave up the 12th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.23), but just the 16th-most rushing YPG (95.8), so JALEEL MCLAUGHLIN and AUDRIC ESTIME don’t look particularly appealing. I’d have to think Sean Payton will look first to the veteran JAVONTE WILLIAMS, who is the only Broncos RB to hit 13+ FP in a game this season (three times). He’s been their main receiving back, and the Bills give up the most receiving YPG (44.1) to RBs, so it could be a 4+ catch game for Javonte.
The other Bills receiver who is so-so against man coverage is DALTON KINCAID, who averages 1.67 YPRR against man coverage, which isn’t terrible but it’s not great. The Broncos also give up the 12th-fewest receiving YPG (47.0) to TEs. On the bright side, they give up the ninth-most receptions per game (5.6), thanks in part to Mike Gesicki, who got them for 10/86 in this matchup two weeks ago.
Looking BETTER than usual: Bo Nix,
Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.
Reach plays: Keon Coleman, Ty Johnson, Javonte Williams, Marvin Mims
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:30 p.m., Sun.
FANTASY INJURIES:
PACKERS: Christian Watson (knee) is out.
EAGLES: AJ Brown was a DNP on Thursday listed as “knee/rest,” but he usually plays well if banged up or iffy. DeVonta Smith was a DNP Friday with back tightness, which isn’t great, but he’s fully expected to go.
TOP MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT:
PACKERS: None of note.
EAGLES:
He was a DNP on Thursday listed as “knee/rest,” which isn’t great news, but I can’t react too strongly about A.J. BROWN this week, since he’ll have 14 days between his last game in this one, and he worked the day before in practice. Green Bay does give up the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (89.7) and the 10th-fewest receptions (124) to outside receivers, but they really don’t have a corner to stop him, and Brown put up 5/119/1 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup in the season opener. Green Bay runs Cover 3 and Cover 4 about 60% of the time, and Brown crushes it, averaging 3.05 YPRR.
The Packers give up the eighth-most receiving YPG (57.1) and the 10th-most receptions per game (5.5) to the position, and it’s also a good schematic matchup for DALLAS GOEDERT, who looked great last week putting up 4/55 receiving on 6 targets, and he likely shook off some rust from his time off. They use Cover 3 and Cover 4 a combined 58.9% of the time, and he averages a very strong 2.84 YPRR, so I think he’ll do more than the 4/31 receiving on 5 targets he got in the season opener. Just two weeks ago, I liked TJ Hockenson in this matchup, and he dropped a rock solid 5/68 on 6 targets with a long of 28 yards.
Green Bay gives up the sixth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.71), the eighth-fewest rushing YPG (82.3), but SAQUON BARKLEY still crushed them for 30+ FP in the opener with 24/109/2 rushing and 2/23/1 receiving. He should be well-rested, and given the lingering health issues surrounding their passing game stars, he’s a great bet to handle 25+ touches.
> TOP MATCHUPS TO FEAR:
PACKERS:
Philly may not have a dominant pass rush, but they give up the second-fewest passing YPG (192.1) and the third-fewest FPG (15.4) to QBs, so it’s a tough spot for JORDAN LOVE, who left the season finale early for a minor throwing arm injury, which is his third injury this season that forced him out of action. He was an inefficient 17-of-34 passing for 260/2 with an 1 INT in this matchup Week 1, and based on how their passing game has devolved, a repeat performance would be a slight win. It’s not a terrible schematic matchup, and Love averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game in the Packers five losses, but Philly’s corners have a major advantage talent-wise here.
I’m honestly rooting for the Packers to lose just so I can stop handicapping this impossible receiving corps, and I’ll probably get my wish, since Philly gives up the third-fewest receptions (112) and the third-fewest receiving YPG (82.2) to outside receivers. I can’t say I like or trust ROMEO DOUBS or DONTAYVION WICKS against the outstanding outside CBs Mitchell and Slay, and Doubs got a boring Doubs posted 4/50 receiving on 7 targets in this matchup in Week 1. Knowing these guys and this passing game this year, it’ll probably be a backup like BO MELTON doing something. Shoutout to Bo, though, who grew up in the Philly area as an Eagles fan.
The Eagles give up the 13th-most receptions (119) to slot receivers and JAYDEN REED got them for 4/138/1 receiving and a 33-yard rushing TD in this matchup in Week 1. However, rookie sensation Cooper DeJean wasn’t starting back then and didn’t for a little while, and Philly still gives up the eighth-fewest receiving YPG (67.5) to inside receivers. Reed has hit 3+ receptions just once in his last eight games, so I give up.
Philly is also stingy against TEs, giving up the fewest receiving YPG (34.8) and the third-fewest receptions per game (4.0) to the position. TUCKER KRAFT has hit 34+ yards in six straight, but he’s done that with 5 or fewer targets in four of those games, and now LUKE MUSGRAVE is in the mix. Good luck.
EAGLES: None of note.
THE REST:
PACKERS:
- It’s tough matchups across the board for the Packers, including for JOSH JACOBS, since Philly gives up the third-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.64), the seventh-fewest rushing YPG (79.8), and the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (27.8) to RBs. Jacobs powered through them for 84 on 16 carries in Week 1 with 2/20 receiving, and with the season on the line, he should be a good bet to collect 25+ touches, which is a lot.
EAGLES:
He’s better against man, ranking only 15th in YPA and 20th in FP/DB against zone, but JALEN HURTS is back and he ran for 12 TDs in Weeks 7-15, which is just over half the season, so I’d expect fantasy success in the friendly home environment. Hurts did throw 2 INTs in that Week 1 matchup, but also for 278/2. The Packers give up the 15th-fewest passing YPG (232.9) and the fourth-fewest FPG (15.4) to the position, but they don’t have the means to stop AJ Brown, and Dallas Goedert looked great last week, so I think Hurts should be his usual self.
DEVONTA SMITH was a DNP Friday with back tightness, which isn’t great, but he’s fully expected to play, of course. He averages a very strong 2.79 YPRR against Cover 3 and Cover 4, which GB uses a combined 58.9% of the time. He’s now hit 6+ receptions in three straight, and the Packers give up the 11th-most receiving YPG (77.4) and the fifth-most receptions (132) to slot receivers and he got them for 7/84 receiving on 8 targets against the Packers in Week 1, so he’ll be more than fine if GB puts up a little bit of a fight.
Looking BETTER than usual: AJ Brown,
Looking WORSE than usual: Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
Reach plays: Bo Melton (longshot play)
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8 p.m., Sun.
FANTASY INJURIES:
COMMANDERS: CB Marshon Lattimore practiced fully to end the week and will start.
BUCCANEERS: TE Cade Otton is questionable, but he had a full practice Friday, so he will play. DBs Jamel Dean (knee) and Mike Edwards (quad) were limited and are questionable, but both should play.
TOP MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT:
COMMANDERS:
We have a nice total of 50+ and DC as a road dog in a win-or-go-home game with Tampa giving up the third-most passing YPG (261.6) and the eighth-most passing TDs per game (1.6) to QBs, so I feel damn good about JAYEN DANIELS, who accounted for multiple TDs in the final five full games and who ran for 16/88/2 against the Tampa in his pro debut. Tampa Bay blitzed Daniels on 55% of his dropbacks in his career debut in Week 1, and Daniels has scrambled for a whopping 237 yards on 20 carries (11.9 YPC) when he’s blitzed and his 90.4 passer rating vs. blitzes is solid, so he should produce here playing from behind.
The Buccaneers give up the 13th-most receiving YPG (109.8) and the fifth-most receiving TDs (14) to outside receivers, and they allowed a league-high +5.1 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to opposing wide receivers over the final 10 weeks. They also use the league’s highest rate of Cover 3, which TERRY MCLAURIN crushes with 3.22 YPRR. He somehow had just 2/17 receiving on 4 targets in the season opener, but if this turns into a shootout, and it’s the highest total on the board this week, then McLaurin could equal that production on one series of downs.
ZACH ERTZ is peaking late with TDs in five of his last seven games. Ertz got only 3/28 receiving on 4 targets in the Week 1 matchup, but he’s rolling now and he caught all 5 of his targets for 44 yards and a TD to wrap up the regular season and Tampa gave up the second-most receiving YPG (67.3) and the fifth-most receptions per game (6.0) to TEs. It’s also a solid schematic matchup for him with Tampa using the highest rate of Cover 3 and Ertz averaging an above-average 1.66 YPRR against the coverage.
BUCCANEERS:
Playing only a 27% snap share last week, RACHAAD WHITE didn’t even get a single carry, so it looks like BUCKY IRVING has completely taken over the backfield, playing a season-high 70% of the snaps in a must-win game last week. DC’s main deficiency on defense is their D-line and their run defense, and they allowed the most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.59) in this league this year along with the fourth-most rushing YPG (113.8). They also gave up fewest receptions per game (2.8) to RBs, which doesn’t bode well for Rachaad. They may pivot back to White handling a solid role, but I doubt it, since White was outclassed by the rookie in Irving’s pro debut back in Week 1 with Bucky getting 9/62 rushing compared to White’s 15/31 line.
Big Mike Evans has not gone over 70 yards and has just 2 TDs in his last 11 matchups with just 25 receptions total in those games against the Saints with Marshon Lattimore, so I think it’s fair to look to JALEN MCMILLAN this week as a good option to at least hit his prop yardage over, which is 52.5 yards. It’s a tougher matchup with DC giving up the eighth-fewest receptions (114) and the 14th-fewest YPRR (1.89) to outside receivers, but it’s a solid schematic matchup for the rookie. Washington uses man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (36.1%), and McMillan averages a strong 2.02 YPRR. He’ll see a lot of fellow rookie MIke Sainristil, who has been very good, but he’s not a shutdown guy and even as a part-time player back in Week 1, McMillan caught a 32-yard TD on 3 targets in his NFL debut back in Week 1.
TOP MATCHUPS TO FEAR:
COMMANDERS: None of note.
BUCCANEERS:
As mentioned above, MIKE EVANS has not gone over 70 yards and has just 2 TDs in his last 11 matchups with just 25 receptions total in those games against the Saints with Marshon Lattimore, and the Commanders give up the seventh-fewest receiving TDs (8) to outside receivers, and despite giving up 2 TDs to Evans himself in the opener. DC uses the sixth-highest rate of man coverage (36.1%), and he kills that coverage with 2.59 YPRR against it, but the specific man in this case is Lattimore, who kinda has his number.
The Commanders give up the fifth-fewest receiving YPG (39.9) and the fourth-fewest receptions per game (4.0) to TEs, so it’s tough to feel great about CADE OTTON, who had just a 5-yard catch on 2 targets in Week 1 in this matchup. Otton will return, at least, but the backup may be a real “Payne,” since PAYNE DURHAM has a TD in back-to-back games.
THE REST:
COMMANDERS:
The Commanders pulled back from BRIAN ROBINSON in the season finale, which was a game they presumably tried to win. The Bucs are pretty stout against the run and give up the ninth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.73) and the fourth-fewest rushing YPG (72.8) to RBs. But they do give up the fifth-most receiving YPG (38.9) to the position, so I feel good about AUSTIN EKELER after he logged a 62% snap share last week. I can’t believe his receiving prop was only 20.5 yards, quite frankly, since Ekeler also had 4/52 receiving against them in the opener.
He dropped a potential long TD last week, but the Buccaneers use the highest rate of Cover 3, and OLAMIDE ZACCHEAUS averages a strong 2.29 YPRR against the coverage, and Tampa give up the most receptions (171) to outside receivers. On the downside, they give up the third-fewest YPRR (1.71) to outside wideouts. But Zaccheaus ran a route on 61% or more of Washington’s pass plays in three straight games (15/206/3 receiving on 22 targets), and he’s hit 3+ receptions or 51+ yards in five straight. DC should be chucking it plenty, so he could easily produce nicely.
BUCCANEERS:
- DC gives up the third-fewest passing YPG (204.2) and haven’t given up multiple TDs to QBs in four straight, but BAKER MAYFIELD has multiple TD passes in five straight and in 13-of-17, including Week 1, when the got them for 289/4 in Liam Coen’s debut as their OC. Of course, Mike Evans scored two of those TDs, and he’ll have Marshon Lattimore to deal with. The Bucs may ride their running game in this one, but DC struggled to generate pressure to close out the season, ranking 31st in pressure rate forced (22.4%) over the final 10 weeks, and Mayfield led all QBs in YPA (8.2) and accurate throw rate (46%) when blitzed this season. The game also has the highest total of the week, and he’s Mr. Shootout.
Looking BETTER than usual: Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan,
Looking WORSE than usual: Brian Robinson, Cade Otton, Mike Evans
Reach plays: Austin Ekeler, Olamide Zaccheaus
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams, 8 p.m., Mon.
FANTASY INJURIES:
VIKINGS: None of note.
RAMS: None of note.
TOP MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT:
VIKINGS:
The Rams have been an outside funnell all year and give up the 5th-most YPG (116.0) and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.7) to outside wideouts, who also produce a strong 2.20 YPRR against LA. It’s also a great schematic matchup for JUSTIN JEFFERSON, who averages a massive 3.04 YPRR against Cover 3, which they use the eight-most (34%). Jefferson got 8/115 receiving on 9 targets in this matchup in late October, and it could have easily been more, but they passed the ball only 28 times. All these positives also apply to JORDAN ADDISON, who has a very strong 2.62 YPRR against Cover 3 and a beatable individual matchup against Darius Williams. Addison has obviously been hot in the second half of the season, and from Week 9 on, he’s the WR17 by FPG, and he’s gotten at least 19% of the Vikings targets in seven of his last eight games. Jefferson is the top target against zone, which LA mostly runs, with a 27% target share, so his upside is massive. Addison had just 2/22 receiving on 3 targets in this matchup in Week 8, but his target share against zone is solid at 19%, and he could easily come through here. I just don’t see him bettering JJ.
The Vikings will have to protect SAM DARNOLD better if they’re going to win, or at least get the ball out quicker than last week, when Darnold completed only 18 of 41 passes. Minnesota has allowed pressure on 32% or more of Darnold’s dropbacks in 15-of-17 games, and LA’s 2.39 average time to pressure in the Week 8 matchup between these two teams was the second-fastest that Darnold faced all season. However, the Rams have only generated pressure on 26.8% of opposing dropbacks since Week 10, which is a bottom-5 rate, so I don’t think LA’s defense can rattle Darnold as well as the Lions did last week. He did complete 18/25 passes for 240/2 in that Week 8 matchup in LA, and the Rams have been weak covering outside receivers all year. LA is allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs over the past five weeks (+4.6), and they give up the ninth-most passing YPG (241.2) and the fifth-most passing TDs per game (1.7). With the second-highest total game of the slate (47.5 total), I’d be very surprised if Darnold didn’t get at least 250/2.
I’ve been all about T.J. HOCKENSON lately, and while he’s not scoring, he’s been very solid — other than last week. Hockenson was open for some plays but the ball sailed on the QB, so he got only 2/9 receiving on 8 targets. His 5.8 targets per game ranks merely TE10, but I still think he’s due for a big game, and LA allows the fourth-most yards per game (64.8) and the second-most receptions per game (6.2) to TEs. They’re the best TE matchup this weekend and have been good for +4.5 schedule-adjusted FPG against TEs since Week 13. They also use the eighth-highest rate of Cover 3 (34%), and he averages a solid 1.70 YPRR against the coverage. His game has the second-highest total of the week, so Hock has a nice upside here. Noah Fant, AKA Fanta Claus, finally showed up last week in this matchup with 5/63/1 on 6 targets.
RAMS:
The Vikings use the highest rate of two-high coverage (63.8%), and PUKA NACUA averages a very good 2.49 YPRR against the coverage. They also give up the second-most receiving YPG (120.0) and the eighth-most YPRR (2.11) to outside receivers, and Puca got them for 7/106 receiving on 9 targets in that Week 8 matchup. They are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the league, and Puka has a massive 50% target share against the blitz since Week 11, and Nacua leads all receivers in yards per route run (4.94) when the defense blitzes, so expect Puca to be fed the rock here.
He’s well-rested, but MATTHEW STAFFORD has fallen below double-digit FP and 190 passing yards in three straight games, so I can’t assume he’s going to crush it this week, especially with LA being 23rd by pass rate over expectation from Weeks 8-17. Protection is key, since when kept clean, Stafford has the 11th-best passer rating (106.7) and his turnover-worthy throw rate was just 2%. But when pressured, Stafford is 26th in passer rating (45.9) and 25th in turnover worthy throws (8.1%). The Vikings like to blitz, but Stafford has averaged 10.47 YPA against the blitz since Week 11, which bodes well for his chances. They also gave up the fourth-most passing YPG (261.5), and Stafford hit the Vikings up for 279/4 while completing 25 of 34 passes in this matchup in late October. It’s a solid schematic matchup as well, since he’s been 21% more efficient by FP/DB against two-high looks, which the Vikings deploy 63.8% of the time (the most in the NFL). Finally, Stafford averaged 10 more pass attempts per game in losses (38.7) compared to wins (28.5), and the Vikes are actually “road” favorites in this one, so he should be more than fine, if not great.
TOP MATCHUPS TO FEAR:
VIKINGS: None of note.
RAMS: None of note.
THE REST:
VIKINGS:
- The Rams are bottom-10 in YPC (4.55) and success rate (52.5%) allowed off of zone blocking carries, and nearly 60% of AARON JONES’ carries are off of zone blocking. LA’s giving up the seventh-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.30), the 12th-most rushing YPG (101.5), and the 16th-most receiving YPG (34.2) to RBs, so if he’s healthy enough (quad bruise in Week 17), I’d expect a little more than the 19/58 rushing and 2/37 receiving he got in this matchup in late October. There is some downside to Jones, since CAM AKERS has given them some juice and busted off a 58-yard run with Jones getting an IV in the locker room last week, but Jones’ role in the passing game held last week with 5/30 receiving on 6 targets.
RAMS:
- Backing Puka Nacua is probably the easiest call of the weekend, especially since he’s received an insane 40 more targets than COOPER KUPP since Week 9, but a case can be made for the veteran. For one, it’s a solid schematic matchup, since the Vikings use two-high coverage at the highest rate (63.8%), and he averages an excellent 2.59 YPRR against the coverage. The Vikings also give up the fourth-most receptions (136) and the fifth-most receiving YPG (88.4) to slot receivers, so I can see Kupp at least doing as well as he did in the first meeting (5/51/1 receiving on 8 targets). However, he’ll see a lot of slot CB Byron Murphy, who was his nemesis when he played for the Cardinals, and Murphy has been very good down the stretch, ranking second-best in terms of passer rating against him. I still think Kupp will show up in this big spot with 5-6 grabs, but I can’t ignore his possible downside given his poor end to the season.
- The Vikings have been solid against TEs all year, but Sam LaPorta caught all 7 of his targets in this matchup last week for 63 yards, so TYLER HIGBEE could be a factor, especially if they throw it 35+ times, which is possible with the second-highest total on the board. Higbee has 12 targets, 8 catches, and 2 TDs in his last three games, so he’s been a factor. The Vikings also gave up a short TD to rookie AJ Barner back in Week 16.
Looking BETTER than usual: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, Puca Nacua
Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.
Reach plays: Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford
