In this new weekly column, I’ll be picking out five of the most important stats that I think fantasy players NEED to know.
I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.
All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite (FREE THIS WEEK!), and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.
1. Bijan Robinson has played on 48% of Atlanta’s total snaps; 31% of the rushing snaps, 0% of the snaps inside the 5-yard-line, 40% of the snaps inside the 10-yard-line, and 55% of the snaps inside the red zone when the Falcons are winning by at least 1 point
Robinson has some of the most dramatic splits when his team is leading or trailing we have ever seen. The worst part is it doesn’t seem to matter how much the Falcons are winning by. If you just look when the Falcons are winning by 1 to 7 points, virtually all of those snap rates stay the same.
On the flip side, here are his numbers when the Falcons are trailing by at least 1 point.
The overall snap rate basically flips between Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Bijan also dominates the high-value touch area snaps when the team is trailing. Just like when they are leading, if you just look at when they are trailing by 1 to 7 points, all of the numbers basically stay the same.
This is not a scenario where in blowouts, they use Allgeier, and when really trailing, they use Bijan. As soon as the Falcons trail or lead by a single point, they switch their RB usage.
2. Jordan Addison earned 27% of the Vikings First-Read Targets after Justin Jefferson left last week’s game.
Brandon Powell looked heavily involved on the Vikings' final drive of the game this past week, but when looking closer at the numbers, Addison was just as involved following the Jefferson injury.
A 27% First-Read Share would be the highest mark for Addison all season, and now 35% of 1st Read Targets from the Vikings is up for grabs with Jefferson out.
Addison also ran 85% of his routes out wide when Jefferson left, while KJ Osborn and Powell were about 50/50 out wide and in the slot. This means neither Osborn nor Powell were filling in the Jefferson role, and we should expect Addison to be that guy as long as Jefferson is out.
3. All 5 of Joe Mixon’s carries inside the 5-yard-line have come with Joe Burrow in the shotgun. The Bengals have a league-high 80% stuff rate on all such runs.
Running out of the shotgun when close to the endzone is much more difficult than when the QB is under center. The running back can’t get a head start before receiving the ball, and defenders are often expecting a run.
Here are the league leaders in inside the 5 carries when the QB is in shotgun.
What do the RBs that have high TD rates have in common on this list? D’Andre Swift, Justice Hill, and Isiah Pacheco have mobile QBs. Kyren Williams has an elite play designer who uses heavy motion to disguise plays, and Kenneth Walker is just awesome. Mixon, Brian Robinson, AJ Dillon, and Josh Jacobs have mostly stationary QBs in the red zone, so defenses know they don’t have to worry about the QB as much.
In 2022, Mixon saw eight carries from the shotgun inside the 5, which resulted in a 63% stuff rate and 25% TD Rate. He saw nine carries with Burrow under center, which resulted in a 55% stuff rate and a 44% TD rate. Expect Mixon to be much better inside the 5 when Burrow’s calf heals and he can get back under center.
4. C.J. Stroud was only pressured on 17.1% of his dropbacks in Week 5
Prior to Week 5, the Falcons had a 37.7% pressure rate (9th in the NFL) and a 2.63 time to pressure. With the Texans getting Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard back this week, they held the Falcons to only a 17.1% pressure rate and 3.55 time to pressure.
Here are the splits with Stroud in a clean pocket vs under pressure.
This Texans offensive line being healthy is a massive bump to Stroud’s outlook. His FP/DB when under pressure is 6th worst in the league, and his FP/DB from a clean pocket is 15th highest in the league.
He also gets to his 1st Read 35% more often, which will be more targets for Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who both see their target share rise about 6% when Stroud is not pressured.
5. DeAndre Hopkins’ 4.12 YPRR is the highest mark he has posted in a single week since before 2021.
Hopkins saw a season-high 45.8% 1st Read Target Share this week which also would be the 2nd highest 1st Read Target Share he had seen in 3 years. He did that with an aDOT of 16.4 on 10 targets.
The list of receivers that have hit all three of those marks in a single week since 2021 includes Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, and Courtland Sutton.
On the season, Hopkins now ranks top 10 in XFP/RR, Air Yard Share, Target Share, and 1st Read Share. He is also 11th in YPRR and top 3 in targets per route run and threat rate. The Titans are treating Hopkins like a true alpha WR1, and he looks to have a role we have not seen from him in some time before he got to Tennessee.
