Week 1 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Darius Leonard.

Phi @ Atl

Targets:

Josh Sweat (DE, Phi) and Derek Barnett (DE, Phi) - both of these DLs are poised for more snaps this season and they’ll get to prove their mettle against this shaky O-line. I like these as DL3s who otherwise might have been on your bench.

Foye Oluokun (LB, Atl) and Deion Jones (LB, Atl) - Philly’s offense should be built around their two TEs Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz, as well as the run game. That’s a lot of box activity for these Atlanta LBs.

Alex Singleton (LB, Phi) - Singleton looks like the real deal and was largely drafted as a backup or LB3/LB4. Singleton is likely to post 7-10 tackles in this game, making him more of an LB2.

Avoids:

Dante Fowler (DE, Atl) - Between the Eagles’ strong O-line and the mobility and run-focused attack of QB Jalen Hurts, Fowler may not get many sack opportunities to open the season. Fowler has been a frustratingly inconsistent player in his career, and this is a bad week to take that risk.

Injuries:

Rodney McLeod (S, Phi) - OUT (knee)

Pit @ Buf

Targets:

Jordan Poyer (S, Buf) - Poyer has a great matchup and gets to play in his tackle-friendly home stadium. He’s got top-5 potential this week.

Taron Johnson (CB, Buf) - Johnson tends to get lots of action in the slot when the Bills get into high-scoring affairs. Teams tend to avoid Tre’Davious White at all costs and Johnson was the tackle beneficiary last season in these situations. The Steelers have 3 WRs who they will try to get into the slot against Johnson. I like him as a sneaky CB2/DB3.

Cam Sutton (CB, Pit) - Sutton should see time on the perimeter and in the slot for the Steelers, and with the pass-heavy attack of Buffalo, he should be busier than usual. CB3/DB4 is probably a healthy expectation, so he’s a great fill-in if one of your drafted CBs is injured.

Avoids:

Greg Rousseau (DE, Buf) - While we love Rousseau, it’s doubtful the rookie will get enough snaps in Week One to be productive. Even stud rookie Joe Tryon-Shoyinka barely played for Tampa Bay on Thursday Night. Add to that the heavy rotation the Bills use with their pass-rushers, and Rousseau’s chances to amass enough snaps to be reliable aren’t good.

Devin Bush (LB, Pit) - Bush’s coverage skills have been an issue since his rookie season and apparently, they haven’t improved enough to be trusted. The team traded for LB Joe Schobert and there’s a good chance that when Buffalo goes four-wide - an offensive staple for this unit - Bush will come off the field for a DB.

Injuries:

Star Lotulelei (DT, Buf) - OUT (Calf)

NYJ @ Car

Targets:

Quinnen Williams (DL, NYJ) - Williams was set to get a ton of help from the newly-acquired DE Carl Lawson but with Lawson’s season-ending injury, the Jets lacked a legitimate threat to keep Williams’ double-teams to a minimum. Enter Shaq Lawson, who can help keep an O-line’s attention. The Panthers have a weak O-line, and Williams is bound to get in the face of his former teammate Sam Darnold more than once this game.

C.J. Mosley (LB, NYJ) - Mosley hasn’t played in a game since early in 2019. There’s a chance he won’t have the legs for a full 50-70 snaps. But this is a dream matchup for him, as this Panthers offense loves old school hip hop (RUN DMC…RUN CMC…these jokes don’t write themselves, folks). Mosley will spend most of the game tracking down their #1 weapon and do-it-all running back. There’s gold in them thar hills. And by gold, I mean tackles.

Avoids:

Brian Burns (DL, Car) - Rookie LT Mekhi Becton got a bit of a bad rap last season, as he improved toward the end of the year. Burns will spend much of the game matched up with Becton, and between Becton’s improvement and the expected slow pace of the game, Burns might not come out of the gate roaring. He’s one of our favorite targets for the season, but he might have a slow start due to this matchup.

Injuries:

Sharrod Neasman (S, NYJ) - Out (Hamstring)

Min @ Cin

Targets:

Sam Hubbard (DE, Cin) - Hubbard’s strength is defending the run and not coincidentally in this defense, his primary role is stopping the run. Given the below-average Vikings O-line, Hubbard should have some clean looks at Dalvin Cook at times. Game Script and offensive identity both suggest that the Vikings will hit the ground running, giving Hubbard 5+ tackle upside this week.

Logan Wilson (LB, Cin) - If Hubbard has a higher tackle floor this week due to the matchup, then so does Wilson. It’s his first time in the driver’s seat of this defense, so expect the Vikings to run at him often.

D.J. Wonnum (DE, Min) - We all know Danielle Hunter is a weekly start. He could be facing a brick wall and we’d still like his chances of getting past it. But Wonnum is a sneaky play here, as not only has he put together a strong enough training camp to move into a starting position, he’s facing one of the worst O-lines in the league. He’s a DL4, but he’s got DL2 upside this week.

Avoids:

None.

Injuries:

Anthony Barr (LB, Min) - OUT (Knee)

Trae Waynes (CB, Cin) - OUT (Hamstring)

SF @ Det

Targets:

Nick Bosa (DE, SF) - I know, I know. I said I wouldn’t waste time telling you to start the obvious players. But given our reluctance to draft Bosa as our #1 DL this season due to his chances of starting slowly after his brutal ACL tear, this matchup is particularly juicy for him. With starting LT Taylor Decker ruled out, rookie Penei Sewell moves over to square off against Bosa for 50-60 snaps this week. That’s a helluva first day on the job for Sewell, putting Bosa in a good position to start the season off strong.

Amani Oruwariye (CB, Det) - Oruwariye will be one of the prime targets for San Francisco’s offense. They will look to exploit him much in the way that the Cowboys attacked Jamel Dean on Thursday Night. Oruwariye has 6-10 tackle upside this week if you need a deep-league CB.

Avoids:

Dee Ford (DE, SF) - As enticing as this matchup is for the SF D-line with Lions LT Taylor Decker out, Ford’s back injury will reportedly have him on a “pitch count” per ESPN’s Nick Wagoner. He still may come through, but it’s a risky play to start the season, given they may not need him much.

Injuries:

Javon Kinlaw (DT, SF) - Doubtful (Knee)

Emmanuel Moseley (CB, SF) - Doubtful (Knee)

Jax @ Hou

Targets:

Tyson Campbell (CB, Jax) - Campbell, who was limited with a calf injury, is set to start this Sunday, making him a prime target for Texans QB Tyrod Taylor. Though Shaquill Griffin isn’t what one would call a lockdown corner, the Texans offense will undoubtedly prefer to test Campbell early and often.

Avoids:

Christian Kirksey (LB, Hou) - I’m sorry. I just need to see it once with my own eyes. Are the Texans really going to trot out Kirksey - who was a shell of his former self last season in Green Bay after his previous injury-riddled seasons - for every snap? It’s hard to fathom they would. But if they truly are tanking, it’s not a bad idea. Plus, with Lonnie Johnson out (Houston’s dime safety), perhaps Kirskey will be forced to play a ton this week. Hmm. No, I still can’t do it.

Injuries:

Tre Herndon (CB, Jax) - OUT (knee)

Tyson Cambell (CB, Jax) - Questionable (calf)

Sea @ Ind

Targets:

DeForest Buckner (DL, Ind) - While Buckner had a good season last year (58 tackles and 9.5 sacks), it was recently revealed that he played with a broken bone in his hand, preventing him from being able to grasp. The man brought down 10 QBs with one hand last season. Don’t hesitate to start him weekly.

Khari Willis (S, Ind) - With Xavier Rhodes out, Willis will be charged with clean-up duty behind T.J. Carrie and Kenny Moore as they try to corral D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Seattle’s offense produced 27 tackles per game to DBs last season, and Willis could be in line for about 30% of those this week: 7-9 tackles and a solid DB2.

Jordyn Brooks (LB, Sea) - Indianapolis was top-10 in rushing opps last season, and while of course we’re starting Bobby Wagner, Brooks has sneaky upside this week. The Colts offense produced 22 tackles per game to LBs last season. Wagner can’t soak up all of that on his own, leaving Brooks to produce similar numbers to his predecessor, K.J. Wright. Give me Brooks as my LB3.

Avoids:

Carlos Dunlap (DE, Sea) - Dunlap is a great fit for this Seattle scheme, getting to focus mostly on chasing the QB. But the Colts boast one of the best O-lines in the game, and with Dunlap’s tendency to disappear for entire games, the chances are too great that he could leave us empty both in our feelings and in our lineups.

Injuries:

Xavier Rhodes (CB, Ind) - OUT (calf)

Kemoko Turay (DE, Ind) - OUT (groin)

Ari @ Ten

Targets:

Zaven Collins (LB, Ari) - The rookie will be wearing the green dot and staying on the field 100% of the time, putting him in prime position to take on Tennessee’s run-heavy attack. The Titans and Derrick Henry are perennial top-5 run-first candidates, producing 23 tackles per game to LBs last season. Don’t be surprised if Collins finishes with double-digit tackles this week.

Isaiah Simmons (LB, Ari) - See: Collins, Zaven.

Chandler Jones (DL, Ari) - I know Jones missed all of last season, and he’s an “aging vet.” But he tore his bicep, not his Achilles or ACL. And he’s 31, not 41. He posted 19 sacks in his last full season (2019). Plus, he finally has major help in J.J. Watt, and the Titans O-line is no longer elite. Good luck, Ryan Tannehill.

Caleb Farley (CB, Ten) - Arizona’s Air Raid offense puts a lot of pressure on CBs, so the rookie will be immediately dropped into the deep end of the pool. The Cardinals were a top-10 team for DB fantasy production last season, so fly those “Rookie Corner Rule” banners for this one.

Avoids:

None.

Injuries:

Dennis Gardeck (OLB, Ari) - OUT (knee)

David Long (LB, Ten) - OUT (hamstring)

LAC @ Was

Targets:

Landon Collins (S, Was) - Yes, I’m a bit nervous about how his first-step quickness is affected coming off an Achilles injury. But Collins knows how to be an enforcer and if Austin Ekeler plays (hell, even if he doesn’t), Washington will need Collins to assist their plodding LBs as much as possible against this Chargers offense.

Avoids:

Drue Tranquill (LB, LAC) - There’s too good a chance that the Chargers will use a rotation at LB next to Kenneth Murray, Jr. The team wants to get Tranquill, Kyzir White, and rookie Nick Niemann all involved with Murray. That’s too much volatility to trust one of your LB spots to Tranquill without knowing more of the splits yet.

Jamin Davis (LB, Was) - Davis hasn’t had a stellar camp and played poorly in the preseason. He also has HC Ron Rivera (who is known for preferring veterans to rookies) mentioning that they don’t want to put too much on his plate and that he’s still a work in progress. John Hansen would call those “bad vibes.” I think Davis will make a strong impact this season, but there’s a good chance we’ll see way more of Cole Holcomb and Jon Bostic over Davis.

Injuries:

None of note.

Cle @ KC

Targets:

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Cle) - Cleveland wants to use JOK in nickel packages this season and although the Chiefs use a lot of 12 personnel (and some 14 personnel!), the Browns will treat Travis Kelce as a wide receiver. I expect to see Owusu-Koramoah on the field for 60-80% of the defensive snaps, moving him from your bench to your LB3 slot.

Daniel Sorensen (S, Cle) - Regardless of whether Tyrann Mathieu (COVID list) plays, Sorensen is going to be busy. Sorensen’s box responsibilities were already elevated with Willie Gay, Jr. out for this week. If Mathieu is out as well, Sorensen has DB1 upside this week.

Avoids:

Jadeveon Clowney (DE, Cle) - Not only is Clowney Questionable with an illness, but the Browns may also elect to pull him at times in favor of Takk McKinley. Clowney’s a better run defender than pass rusher, and they need to do what no team has done before: keep Clowney healthy. Clowney’s snap counts are in jeopardy if he's less than 100%.

Injuries:

Tyrann Mathieu (S, KC) - Reserve/COVID

Frank Clark (DE, KC) - Questionable (hamstring)

Derrick Nnadi (DT, KC) - Questionable (hip)

Jadeveon Clowney (OLB, Ten) - Questionable (illness)

Grant Delpit (S, Ten) - Questionable (hamstring)

Ronnie Harrison (S, Ten) - Questionable (ankle)

Mia @ NE

Targets:

Kyle Van Noy (LB, NE) - Van Noy returns to New England and to a system he thrived in before leaving for Miami. Both he and Matt Judon are facing a suspect O-line and Van Noy knows this O-line and sophomore QB better than anyone.

Xavien Howard (CB, Mia) - Howard’s fluky INT run of last year makes him a prime regression candidate for 2021. But facing a rookie QB in his first start in a defense that might be the most difficult for a QB to read (or a close second behind Baltimore), Howard’s big-play upside is hard to ignore this week.

Avoids:

None.

Injuries:

Jalen Mills (S/CB, NE) - Questionable (ankle)

GB @ NO

Targets:

Krys Barnes (LB, GB) - Barnes gets a great matchup to start his season as the new primary LB in GB. The Saints and its Alvin Kamara-centric offense produced the 2nd-most PFG to LBs last season.

Paulson Adebo (CB, NO) - Adebo moved up the depth charts with an impressive preseason. Now with the retirement of Patrick Robinson, the release of Prince Amukamara, and the injury to Ken Crawley, Adebo is in line to start opposite stud CB Marshon Lattimore. Aaron Rodgers has made his living picking on rookie corners, and I expect no different this week. Adebo has double-digit tackle potential this week.

Avoids:

Za’Darius Smith (OLB, GB) - Not only is Smith Questionable (back), he’s facing one of the best O-lines in the game. That double-whammy is just too risky to bet on.

Injuries:

Za’Darius Smith (OLB, GB) - Questionable (back)

Tyler Lancaster (DE, GB) - Questionable (back)

Den @ NYG

Targets:

Alexander Johnson (LB, Den) - Even without Saquon Barkley, the Giants were a top-5 team for opposing LB production last season. Johnson has little tackle competition and should be busy this week.

Von Miller (LB, Den) - Miller has one of his best matchups all season to start the year. With fresh legs, the veteran and future HOF-er will enjoy a combination of possibly the weakest O-line in the league and most likely a lead to set him up for multiple sack opportunities.

Avoids:

Josey Jewell (LB, Den) - The team isn’t thrilled with Jewell’s ability to cover, and while there’s no Evan Engram this week, Vic Fangio should use rookie Patrick Surtain (his designated TE Killer) in coverage in favor of Jewell. This won't affect Jewell too much this week (versus other TE-centric offenses they will face), but the writing is on the wall. I’m ok with him as your LB3 this week, though.

Injuries:

Bradley Chubb (OLB, Den) - Questionable (ankle)

Adoree Jackson (CB, NYG) - Questionable (ankle)

Chi @ LAR

Targets:

Eddie Jackson (S, Chi) - I call him “Steady Eddie,” as he’s essentially a weekly lock for 5-6 tackles. With Danny Trevathan on IR and Alec Ogletree the next man up at LB, Jackson will be asked to help a short-handed LB corps in front of him. He’s officially Questionable with a wrist injury, but he’s expected to be a full go.

Jordan Fuller (S, LAR) - Not only is Fuller wearing the green dot and in charge of the defense, Chicago was the #2 offense for giving up FPG to DBs last season. Fuller has a DB2 floor in this matchup.

Avoids:

Kenny Young (LB, LAR) - Between the team preferring Troy Reeder and not assigning any LB the every-down role of defensive signal-caller, Young is on the wrong side of the snap share projections to be trusted here. Perhaps he’ll end up playing 80-100% of the snaps, but it’s not a sure thing at this stage.

Injuries:

Eddie Jackson (S, Chi) - Questionable (wrist)

Deon Bush (S, Chi) - Questionable (shoulder)

Tashaun Gipson (S, Chi) - Questionable (back)

Khalil Mack (OLB, Chi) - Questionable (groin)

Robert Quinn (OLB, Chi) - Questionable (back)

Eddie Goldman (DT, Chi) - Doubtful (knee)

Bal @ LV

Targets:

Calais Campbell (DE, Bal) - Campbell is past his prime, but a porous O-line and increased pass-rush chances put Campbell in the driver’s seat for big plays this week. The same can be said for Justin Houston.

Jonathan Abram (S, LV) - Abram should get plenty of reps in the box with rookie Trevon Moehrig better suited in centerfield. With Baltimore’s rushing attack (regardless of who is back there) and abundance of QB runs, Abram could be on spy duties for Lamar Jackson.

Avoids:

Las Vegas LBs - This is a hornet’s nest I want no part of, particularly against an unconventional offense that may be even more unconventional than usual this week. Let’s see how the splits shake out between Denzel Perryman, Cory Littleton, K.J. Wright, and Nick Kwiatkoski before we throw any of them into our lineups.

Injuries:

Jimmy Smith (CB, Bal) - Questionable (ankle)

Derek Wolfe (DE, Bal) - Questionable (back)