2024 Post-Draft NFL Futures Risers and Fallers

It’s time to see which teams were the biggest risers and fallers in the NFL futures market following the 2024 NFL Draft. The team betting markets have been more stable than in recent years with fewer big names switching teams around the draft. I’ve already broken down the draft in our Veteran Market Watch, and I previewed the 2024 rookie class for re-draft fantasy leagues (RBs, WRs, QBs and TEs) and for Rookie of the Year honors.

The biggest off-season transactions are mostly behind us, but we could still see players like Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Marshawn Lattimore, and Tee Higgins get traded before Week 1. There are also some quality free agents available including Donovan Smith, Justin Simmons, David Bakhtiari, Stephon Gilmore, Xavien Howard, Ryan Tannehill, Jamal Adams, J.C. Jackson, and Connor Williams.

Remember to always shop around multiple sportsbooks before you place any NFL futures wagers. Sportsbooks will have wildly different odds and totals based on their liabilities with different futures wagers. You can maximize your chances of winning by looking around first and finding the best odds and prices. See where I think each team sits after the draft in my updated Power Rankings. As always, good luck with your wagers!

Check out all of my 2024 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2024 season…Teams are ordered by their win total, which is courtesy of DraftKings. Super Bowl LVIX odds are courtesy of FanDuel.

POST-DRAFT SEASON WIN TOTALS AND SUPER BOWL LVIX ODDS

RISERS

Cincinnati Bengals

+1500 odds (6.25% implied odds) to +1300 odds (7.14%)

The first bet I gave out to our subscribers this off-season was on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl at +1500 odds, and the market has moved in our favor since February. I noted that the Bengals are the only AFC team to eliminate Kansas City in the last five seasons and Joe Burrow is the only active QB to do it since — Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl. Burrow didn’t get the chance to beat the Chiefs because of a season-ending wrist injury last season, but he’s been throwing since April. It’s looking likely that Tee Higgins will be on the receiving end of some of those throws for at least one more season. The Bengals beefed up in the trenches with their first two draft picks (OT Amarius Mims and DT Kris Jenkins) before landing a top-10 talent in WR Jermaine Burton in the third round.

Philadelphia Eagles

+1600 odds (5.88%) to +1400 (6.67%); 10.5 wins (+110) to 10.5 (+105)

The second bet I gave out to our subscriber this off-season was on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl at +2200 odds, and the market has moved significantly in our favor since February. We bought the Eagles at their lowest point off of last year’s dismal end to the season, but I noted that the Eagles consistently put themselves in the mix to make a run in the NFC as one of the NFL’s sharpest organizations despite their late-season collapse. That’s exactly what they did this off-season by signing Bryce Huff, Saquon Barkley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson before dominating the draft once again. The Eagles had the NFL’s third-best draft based on the consensus of 20 different evaluations. Philadelphia’s odds and win total also improved because of the lack of activity from the Cowboys, who are their biggest competitor in the NFC East.

Green Bay Packers

+2200 odds (4.35%) to +1900 (5.0%)

Green Bay’s momentum from late last season has continued into the off-season with their odds steadily improving from +2500 since the last Super Bowl concluded. Jordan Love is Green Bay’s next potential star at quarterback, and GM Brian Gutekunst selected the athletically gifted Jordan Morgan to potentially be his long-term left tackle. Green Bay’s defense underperformed under Joe Barry the last three seasons, but the unit could be a sleeping giant because of the significant amount of draft capital they’ve spent on the unit over the last decade. They added LB Edgerrin Cooper and S Javon Bullard to the group with second-round picks. Green Bay is ready to challenge Detroit in what has quickly become the NFL’s best division in the NFC North.

New York Jets

9.5 wins (+125) to 9.5 (-115)

The Jets are building some momentum in the AFC East while the Bills and Dolphins have seen their win totals dip. New York has a limited championship-contention window with a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, and GM Joe Douglas loaded up on offensive talent to appease Aaron Rodgers. The Jets added Mike Williams as a vertical threat across from Garrett Wilson in free agency before moving up to select Malachi Corley to be the passing game’s after-the-catch threat. New York also signed John Simpson and Tyron Smith in free agency before selecting OT Olu Fashanu to give this O-line some much-needed depth. New York’s roster is deeper than it was a year ago, especially on offense, and now it’s time to see what Rodgers has left in the tank after his major leg injury.

Chicago Bears

+4400 odds (2.22%) to +4000 (2.44%); 8.5 wins (-135) to 8.5 (-145)

Caleb Williams was the favorite to be selected first overall ever since the 2023 draft concluded, and Chicago made it official at the start of the 2024 draft. Chicago already had one of the best WR duos before the draft in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, and the Bears turned it into the NFL’s best WR trio when Rome Odunze fell into their lap eight picks after Williams. Chicago picked just three other players in the final 247 selections but the Bears still finished with the NFL’s third-best draft based on the consensus of 20 different evaluations. The Bears have accumulated a top-10 roster outside of the quarterback position, and Williams is in one of the best spots a #1 overall pick has ever been in upon entering the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers

+6000 odds (1.64%) to +5000 (1.96%); 8.5 wins (-110) to 8.5 (-120)

GM Omar Khan earned high marks for his first draft in 2023, and he backed it up with what was considered the NFL’s best draft this year based on the consensus of 20 different evaluations. Pittsburgh selected offensive linemen with each other its first two selections and three of them in the first four rounds, including Brett Whitefield’s seventh-rated prospect Troy Fautanu with the 20th pick. They caught a sliding Roman Wilson with the 84th overall pick, who should be the perfect complement to George Pickens. Pittsburgh even landed the Butkus Award winner in Payton Wilson, who fell to 98th overall because he doesn’t have an ACL in one of his knees. The Steelers will find themselves in the postseason hunt if they can get just league-average /or Justin Fields.

FALLERS

Buffalo Bills

10.5 wins (-145) to 10.5 (+100)

Buffalo’s ceiling is still extremely high as evidenced by its Super Bowl odds remaining at +1300 since early April, but under 10.5 wins has taken some action with the Bills losing several key players because of salary-cap issues. GM Brandon Beane allowed the Chiefs (Xavier Worthy) and Panthers (Xavier Legette) to select WRs in trade-ups before he selected Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round. The trade-downs enabled the Bills to reload their thinning roster with 10 selections overall but, fair or not, Coleman will be compared to Worthy and Legette moving forward.

Dallas Cowboys

+1300 odds (7.14%) to +1500 (6.25%)

The Cowboys have been shockingly quiet this off-season as they try to come up with a plan to keep Micah Parson, CeeDee Lamb, and Dak Prescott after the 2024 season. Dallas is a little thin offensively outside of quarterback, and they used two of its first three picks on O-linemen Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe. The Cowboys still have the NFL’s weakest backfields despite signing Ezekiel Elliott after the draft, and they’re kicking the tires on veteran WRs like Zay Jones to boost their receiving corps behind Lamb. Dallas is still the eighth-favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, but it’s lost ground to the Eagles and the rest of the top of the NFC the last few months.

Miami Dolphins

10.5 wins (+125) to 9.5 (-145)

Miami didn’t have as ugly an off-season as the rivals Bills had, but the Dolphins also lost a number of key players because of cap issues. They had just two picks in the first two days of the draft, and they rolled the dice on high-ceiling players in EDGE Chop Robinson and OT Patrick Paul. The Dolphins signed Odell Beckham after the draft to give themselves a legit #3 WR behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but this roster is still weaker overall compared to last season. The Jets also picked up some momentum in the future markets, which came at the expense of the Dolphins and Bills’ win totals.

RISERS…AND FALLERS

Houston Texans

9.5 wins (-110) to 9.5 (-140); +1500 odds (6.25%) to +1600 (5.88%)

The early April odds in this article were taken from the day the Texans acquired Stefon Diggs from the Bills. Houston’s odds have slid back a hair after the public’s initial rush to bet on them following the trade. They opened the off-season at +2500 so their odds have still risen significantly since February. There’s no bigger cheat code than a team with a quarterback on a rookie contract, especially one that is as special as C.J. Stroud already is. Houston used free agency to catch up its defense to its already prolific offense, specifically in its front seven, before attacking their by selecting CB Kamari Lassiter and S Calen Bullock with two of their three Day 2 picks.

Atlanta Falcons

+3000 odds (3.23%) to +2400 (4.0%); 10.5 wins (+125) to 9.5 (-135)

The Falcons already had the most improved quarterback situation going from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins, and they solidified it by taking the unnecessary step of selecting Michael Penix with the eighth overall pick. The Falcons rightfully got crushed for bypassing Rome Odunze or the first EDGE defender, which would have improved their chances for the 2024 season. Based mostly on the Penix pick, the Falcons received the NFL’s worst draft grade based on the consensus of 20 different evaluations. Atlanta still saw their Super Bowl odds improve since early April despite their win total slipping. The Falcons have a friendly schedule for the second straight season with ideal unique games against the Seahawks, Steelers, and Vikings, who each rank in the bottom half of my Post Draft Power Rankings.

Brolley’s Best Bets Value Log

13 of my 16 futures bets placed on May 1 or earlier have gained line value and the other three bets have held their original value.