Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 21-30 (41.2%, -10.94 units); W10: 0-5 (-5 units)
Overall ATS Record: 74-75-2 (49.7%); W11: 1-0
Totals Record: 6-3 (66.7%, +2.46 units); W10: 1-0 (+.91 units)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7, FANDUEL) AT BUFFALO BILLS
I have this game power rated more in the six-point range so I’m happy to take a full touchdown in this contest. The Colts continue to be a bit undervalued because of their slow start to the season, and I’m expecting this one to be a tight one throughout. This game could come down to line play and I’d give the Colts the advantage. The Bills are down a couple of key players on both sides of the line with DT Star Lotulelei (COVID), LG Jon Feliciano (pec, IR), and RT Spencer Brown (COVID) out of the lineup. Risk one unit at -108 to win .93 units. (Posted 11/15)
DETROIT LIONS AT CLEVELAND BROWN (UNDER 46, DRAFTKINGS)
Lions’ HC Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties from OC Anthony Lynn coming out of their bye, and he showed a strong commitment to running the rock and taking the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands. The Lions finished with 39 carries compared to 29 dropbacks in their 16-16 tie against the Steelers in Week 10. Cleveland’s offense went back to the struggle bus after their 41-point aberration against the Bengals in Week 9, scoring just seven points and averaging 3.7 yards per play against the Patriots. Baker Mayfield continues to labor through his left shoulder injury and a knee injury knocked him out against the Patriots, so he’ll be at even less than full strength. The Lions have played under the total in six of their last seven games while the Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games. The weather could also be a factor this week since it is late November in Cleveland as we saw in Detroit’s game against Pittsburgh last week. The early forecast is showing the potential for rain and 15 mph winds in Cleveland on Nov. 22. I could see this total dipping below 45 points this week so I’m jumping in on the under at 46 points now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/15)
DALLAS COWBOYS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (OVER 53.5, DRAFTKINGS)
The Chiefs’ offense finally got going against the Raiders last week, notching 41 points after totaling 36 points in their three previous games against the Packers, Giants, and Titans. The Cowboys bounced back in a big way in Week 10 in Michael Gallup’s first game back in the lineup. They’re coming off their third game with 40+ points this season after scoring 43 points against the Falcons. The Chiefs and Cowboys are two of the league’s four fastest teams on a seconds-per-play basis heading into Week 10 so this game has the potential to be a shootout. This total is likely to climb toward 56 points later this week so I’m betting the over early in the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/15)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5 FANDUEL) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Packers extended their NFL-best ATS winning streak to nine straight covers, with their only failed cover coming against the Saints in their bizarre season-opening loss. Aaron Rodgers and the offense get all the publicity for the Packers, but their defense is coming off a shutout of the Seahawks after limiting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 13 points the week prior. The Vikings have covered in three of their last four games after knocking off the Chargers as three-point road underdogs, but the Packers have covered three of the last four meetings in this series since 2019. Even with Aaron Jones (knee) likely to miss this week, the Packers are likely to settle in as 3-to-4 point favorites so I’m jumping on them while they’re less than field-goal favorites. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units. (Posted 11/15)
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5 FANDUEL) VS. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
Cam Newton and P.J. Walker are quarterbacks with pulses, which proved to be a significant upgrade for the Panthers in their first game in the post-Sam Darnold era. They throttled the previously one-loss Cardinals 34-10 as seven-point road underdogs, and Christian McCaffrey is back to being a massive difference-maker with 161 scrimmage yards on 23 touches. Washington is coming off of their own impressive victory in a 29-19 win over the Buccaneers as 10-point home underdogs. However, Washington suffered one of the biggest injuries in Week 10 with Chase Young believed to have torn his ACL. I thought the Panthers would open this week as 3.5-point home favorites based on their performance last week so I’ll take the value under a field goal early in the week. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/15)
NEW YORK GIANTS (+11.5, BETMGM) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Buccaneers have lost consecutive games for the first time since the end of last November, which was right before they went on an eight-game winning streak to capture the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay owns a disappointing 3-6 ATS record, and they’re unlikely to get Rob Gronkowski (back) and Antonio Brown (heel) back this week to help out Tom Brady. The Bucs also lost big DT Vita Vea to a knee injury at the end of their loss to Washington, which is a massive loss for their front four. The Giants are riding a three-game ATS winning streak, and their offense should finally be at full strength coming out of their bye with Saquon Barkley finally ready to rejoin the lineup after a five-week absence. The Giants nearly knocked off the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football last season, dropping a 25-23 decision as 13-point home underdogs. New York has excelled on the road over the better part of the last four seasons with their 21-6 ATS record away from MetLife Stadium, so I’m grabbing this inflated line in case it moves closer to 10 points later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/15)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 94-83 (53.1%, +1.72 units); W10: 4-0 (+3.44 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Kendrick Bourne (NE) over 33.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- 34+ receiving yards in five straight games, averaging 15.8 YPR, Falcons giving up the eight-most FPG (31.3) to WRs
Kyle Pitts (Atl) under 65.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- Should get the Belichick shadow treatment with Patterson unlikely to play, fewer than 65 yards in three straight games and in 6-of-9
Mac Jones (NE) under 23.5 completions (-120, DraftKings) (W)
- Patriots have gone run-heavy in recent weeks, under 20 completions in 4 of last 5 games, potential positive gamescript late as 7-point favorites
Jakobi Meyers (NE) under 56.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- Under 57 yards in six straight games and in 7-of-9 games, will need about six catches since he’s averaging 9.7 YPR with an aDOT of 9.1 yards
Sunday
Cole Beasley (Buf) under 45.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- Played nine snaps last week because of a rib injury and no contact in limited practices this week, 36 or fewer yards in 5-of-9 games
Carson Wentz (Ind) over 20.5 completions (-114, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 23 completions, should have to skew more pass-heavy as seven-point road dogs, Bills facing fifth-highest rate of passes (62.6%), 22+ completions in three straight games
Mark Andrews (Bal) under 60.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Only one TE has cleared 45 receiving yards against Roquan Smith and Co. (Higbee with 68 yards in Week 1)
A.J. Brown (Ten) over 72.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Need to get him going and an ideal bounce-back spot against secondary allowing 14.0 YPR, historically feasted against the Texans
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 72.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Pristine matchup against Campbell and Jags’ secondary that’s giving up the seventh-most receiving yards per game (182.2), 90+ yards in 6-of-9 games
Adam Trautman (NO) over 25.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 6+ targets in all 3 games with Siemian, 30+ yards in 4 of last 5 games, Eagles giving up league-high 73.3 receiving yards per game to TEs
Joe Flacco (NYJ) over .5 interceptions (-115, DraftKings)
- First action of season, potential to be playing from behind as 3.5-point home dogs, INTs in 14 of last 21 starts over the last 3 seasons
Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 45.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 12+ carries in four straight games and averaging 15.3 carries per game in that span, Jets giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (117.8) and a generous 4.8 YPC to RBs
Cam Newton (Car) under 205.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 120 yards, talk of a rotation with Walker with just a week to learn playbook, averaged just 177.1 passing yards per game last season
Antonio Gibson (Was) over 13.5 rushing attempts (-130, DraftKings)
- Gibson got fed out of their bye with 24 carries, RBs are averaging 4.3 YPC against Carolina, potential tight script as three-point road dogs
Darren Waller (LV) under 71.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 65 or fewer yards in all but one game since Week 1, Bengals allowing 43.2 receiving yards per game to TEs
Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 19.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars)
- More quick-rhythm passing and less backyard ball (fewer scrambles) the last three weeks, 8 total rushing yards on 5 carries in that span
Byron Pringle (KC) over 29.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars)
- Promoted with a season-high 61% snap share and Hardman demoted with a season-low 32% share last week, season-best 14.6 FP last week, Dallas allowing 14.7 YPR to WR
Michael Gallup (Dal) over 53.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Elevated into the #2 role with Cooper out, averaged 14.0 YPR in his return last week and Chiefs allowing 13.7 YPR, pass-heavy script in a potential shootout
Sunday Night
Najee Harris (Pit) over 3.5 receptions (-105, Caesars)
- This line is off compared to most other books which have it set at 4.5 receptions, 3+ catches in four straight games and in 7-of-9 contests
Monday Night
Kadarius Toney (NYG) over 38.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Back to full healthy and off the injury report, gets a favorable matchup against Cockrell in the slot with Shepard out
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 1-0
Overall: 24-22 (52.2%)
Week 10
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens at CHICAGO BEARS (+6.5)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) at New York Jets
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Arizona Cardinals at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+2.5)
