“What if I’m wrong?”
I’ve gotten better at asking myself that lately.
Challenging beliefs and confronting perceived biases can be worthwhile endeavors in many fields and areas of life. No one knows everything; few things, if any, are “certain.”
Death, taxes, and Roger Goodell getting booed at the NFL Draft? — that’s about it.
But the operative word here is lately. Particularly when it comes to playing in dynasty leagues, I’ll admit to being reasonably hard-headed with college player evaluations in the past. There was a period where I’d pass on any player I didn’t like.
No shares, zero exceptions.
We’ll come back to the concept of evaluation later, but the sufficient point to draw for the sake of this introduction is that I’ve since forced myself to chances on prospects I’m not as keen on.
The player we’re discussing today, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, is only rostered on maybe three or four of my several dynasty squads. This exercise is no victory lap. I hold no license to wag a finger or laugh in the faces of those who didn’t fully believe in Nix. I am those people, to a large degree.
Still, he embodies a lesson and approach to playing this game that feels important to delve into. Now it feels high time to give Nix his flowers, identify past examples of rookie values like his, break down why it’s important to consider being wrong, and offer a straightforward solution to missing out on these young quarterbacks.
Bo Nix vs. Other 2024 Rookie Quarterbacks
We begin by looking at how good Nix has been this season.
Since breaking out in Week 5 against the Las Vegas Raiders, the Oregon product has averaged 242.4 (11th among QBs) passing yards per game, 20.2 fantasy points per game (fifth among QBs), and an extra 21.6 yards per game on the ground to boot to help elevate his weekly floor.
Of course, this portion of the exercise is neither prescriptive nor particularly provoking, given that dynasty managers have already seen the young signal-caller’s emergence occur. What is interesting, however, is how well Nix stacks up relative to his peers (namely Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels).
By way of our expansive data suite here at Fantasy Points, let’s highlight Nix’s season-long statistics and measures against his 2024 rookie quarterback class peers:
| Player | Games | Pass Yds. Per Game | Adj. Net Yds./Attempt | CPOE% | Rush Yds. Per Game | FP/Dropback |
| Bo Nix | 13 | 218.6 | 5.88 | 0.9% | 23.4 | 0.48 |
| Jayden Daniels | 13 | 217.7 | 6.91 | 4.7% | 45.4 | 0.60 |
| Caleb Williams | 12 | 216.8 | 5.08 | -0.9% | 31.5 | 0.40 |
| Drake Maye | 9 | 188.4 | 4.91 | 1.7% | 38.3 | 0.46 |
From here, we can conclude that Nix has at least been arguably the second-most valuable asset from the class. I’ll accept any arguments that suggest Jayden Daniels has been more impressive when healthy this season, especially given that our own dynasty rankings and resources like KeepTradeCut agree that Daniels is the clear QB1.
Still, Nix has been more consistent than both Williams and Maye in lineups this season yet appears slightly behind both in valuation.
Is that appropriate? Perhaps. It’s understandable to be skeptical of the future of the Denver Broncos and their dearth of supporting cast talent. This is a franchise that has a long way to go regarding building around Nix.
The Broncos have zero consistent running game and, aside from wide receiver Courtland Sutton, no discernable names to discuss when looking at their pass-catchers. Similar diagnoses can be ascribed to Maye’s situation with the New England Patriots, and we also have yet to see Williams in a functional offense led by a coordinator who can get the most out of a talented cast, including D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore.
But all things and circumstances being equal, it’s pretty clear that Nix is a screaming “buy-high” value right now. Just take a look at a couple of recent trades involving him, courtesy of Dynasty Data Lab:
This trio of deals represents a range of value, but if we cross-reference them with Nix’s value on KeepTradeCut (QB11), they feel like fairly reasonable deals. These swaps almost remind me of what dynasty managers could’ve bought Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love for around this time about a year ago.
Past Examples of Nix-Like Values
If trading for Nix right now isn’t up your alley, that's fine.
Not wanting to pay up for a quarterback is a reasonable enough stance to take, but your issue is that the cheapest way to acquire quarterbacks in a dynasty is first in the startup draft and then the second cheapest in rookie drafts.
So, assuming you’re like me and have very little exposure to Nix or simply have none, you have to be open to taking chances on these perceived “lesser than” quarterbacks in your rookie drafts.
This is where we revisit the article's overarching theme, which is that you need to entertain the possibility that your evaluation of a quarterback could be wrong. Particularly when it comes to quarterbacks, you must understand that any player at that position with a remote shot of turning into a starter in the NFL needs to be an opportunity seized by sharp managers.
As a credentialed member at the Reese’s Senior Bowl last year, I wasn’t particularly impressed by either Nix or Michael Penix Jr. I felt both were probably better Day 2 values than anything else. Still, the reality is that my opinion didn’t matter. Both players ended up being top-12 choices in the 2024 NFL Draft, which essentially guarantees each a shot at being a starter for multiple seasons and providing usable weeks in lineups or further elevated trade value down the line.
And guess what else? If we look at DLF’s historical superflex rookie ADP, you had a very low investment opportunity to snag Nix at QB6 (Pick 18.30) value in April and QB5 (Pick 11.30) value in May.
Nix was so cheap that there was almost no point in not taking a shot.
Some other past examples of reasonably highly drafted quarterbacks who held cheap initial investment opportunities include Justin Herbert (QB3, Pick 10.00 in May 2020), Jalen Hurts (QB4, Pick 24.50 in May 2020), the aforementioned Jordan Love (QB5, Pick 24.83 in May 2020), and Will Levis (QB4, Pick 10.90 in May 2023).
Did all of them hit right away or pay significant dividends? The jury is still out on Levis, we’ve yet to see Penix Jr., and I suppose we can count on Nix now, but the point here is that dynasty managers tend to undervalue quarterbacks who aren’t among the first two off the board in the real-life NFL Draft.
Conclusion
Unlike some of my other articles at Fantasy Points this season, there’s no big philosophical bubble to burst or an attempt at a highbrow strategy takeaway.
Sometimes, the most obvious lessons are the most effective.
If a quarterback is drafted with substantial enough NFL Draft capital, you should take a chance on them in your rookie draft. It is legitimately that straightforward: be open to being wrong and seize cheap value, even if it’s the players you don’t like!
We often talk about “process” and ensuring that dynasty managers make informed decisions. While elementary, this whole exercise highlights something that folks need to remember.
Whether you’re ultimately correct about their career effectiveness in the long term is irrelevant. Once a quarterback reaches the field, their value expands exponentially, and they either help your lineup or become a tradable piece that you can flip for even greater capital.
It’s that simple. Just don’t be stubborn like me.
