2024 Week 7 DFS Early Look

Week 6 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 7 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 7 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 7 DFS.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $7,600 (QB1) | FanDuel: $9,100 (QB2)

Daniels is tied for the positional lead in games over 25.0 DraftKings points (3), but we haven’t seen a true ceiling performance yet – Daniels’ best fantasy game (28.1 DraftKings points) only ranks as the 17th-best fantasy outing by a QB this year.

But we know that actual, slate-breaking upside is there. Daniels is operating the most efficient offense in the NFL, and he ranks behind only Lamar Jackson in FP/DB (0.64). He ranks top-5 in YPA (8.5), and he’s completing passes (75.3% completion percentage) at a higher rate than Drew Brees (career-best completion percentage of 74.7%).

Maybe Carolina won’t be able to push Washington toward a ceiling performance. That’s an obvious risk. But the matchup couldn’t be much better – the Panthers are the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted passing matchup for opposing QBs (+3.4 passing FPG). Daniels – already one of the most efficient QBs we’ve ever seen – may only need a slight push to break the slate.

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $6,200 (QB11) | FanDuel: $7,500 (QB11)

This appears to be a relatively thin slate for QB value. That said, Darnold profiles as one of the best ways to save some salary at the position.

Darnold faced a Jets defense in Week 5 that ranked as a bottom-3 on-paper matchup and as a top-3 run funnel. If you exclude that league-worst matchup, he’s the QB2 by FP/DB (0.67) – ranking behind only Lamar Jackson, who isn’t on the main slate.

Not only is Detroit a massive pass funnel, but they are also among the few teams that can push the Vikings. Darnold averaged 20.6 DraftKings FPG in the first four weeks of the season despite Minnesota gaining at least a 2-possession lead in every game. As a result, we haven’t seen this Minnesota offense get pushed – Darnold only attempted more than 28 passes in his brutal Week 5 matchup with the Jets. Now, the hyper-efficient Darnold will likely be forced to throw for the entirety of a high total (49.5) game. Given how condensed this Minnesota passing attack is, it should be easy to build lineups around him this week.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (VS. LV)

DraftKings: $8,100 (RB2) | FanDuel: $8,600 (RB3)

Williams’ workload is absurdly good. He’s the RB1 by snap share (85%), the RB1 by route share (65%), and the RB3 by XFP (18.6).

But what’s even better is his matchup with Las Vegas. The Raiders are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+5.6 FPG), and the Rams are 5.5-point favorites. Dating back to 2022, Williams averages +11.0 FPG in wins (21.6) relative to losses (10.6). And his per-snap productivity jumps over +85% while leading, compared to trailing. Positive gamescript is a massive part of what Williams needs to succeed, and he should have that – on top of a great matchup – this week.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks (@ ATL)

DraftKings: $7,300 (RB6) | FanDuel: $7,500 (RB13)

Walker has the 3rd-best workload among RBs over the last three weeks (18.9 XFP/G), mainly because of his expanded receiving usage. Since Week 4, only Alvin Kamara has more targets, and no RB has run more routes. Over the full season, Walker is the 2nd-most efficient RB on a per-snap basis when his team is trailing (0.52 FP/snap).

And this week could feature a trailing script – the Seahawks are 3.0-point underdogs, and Atlanta had dropped 74 total points over their last two games. And if Seattle does manage to hang onto a lead, Walker can still dominate. His rushing YPG sees a +94% boost in wins since 2022, while his per-snap productivity jumps +82% while Seattle is leading over the same time span. RBs that see elite pass game usage on top of a workhorse rushing role are exceedingly rare. Walker looks to have joined that club, making him an incredible fantasy asset regardless of gamescript.

Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans (@ BUF)

DraftKings: $6,300 (RB19) | FanDuel: $7,100 (RB17)

Tyjae Spears was injured on the first half's final play on Sunday, and is expected to miss Week 7.

After that injury, Pollard earned a 90% snap share, 85% of team rush attempts, and 92% of backfield usage (as measured by XFP). RB3 Julius Chestnut (13 career touches in 3 seasons) played on 3 of 29 snaps. This is Pollard’s backfield until Spears returns.

And this isn’t a bad week for Pollard to have a backfield monopoly. The Bills are among the five softest schedule-adjusted matchups for opposing RBs (+5.0 FPG) – mainly because they funnel such a massive amount of pass-game volume underneath. Pollard’s 56% route share after Spears left Sunday’s game would rank 4th-best over the entire season, and the Tennessee backfield has recorded the 12th-most receptions on the year. Pollard should get peppered with targets here, on top of an every-down role. He’s one of the most obvious values of Week 7.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (VS. KC)

DraftKings: $7,000 (WR12) | FanDuel: $8,200 (WR7)

Samuel hasn’t had a blowup game yet, and he’s San Francisco’s No. 4 pass catcher by per-game usage this season (9.0 XFP/G) – behind Jauan Jennings. But we know Samuel is one of the most efficient players in fantasy, and all it can take is the right matchup for him to be peppered with targets.

Kansas City doesn’t look like a great matchup on paper (bottom-6 schedule-adjusted for opposing WRs) – but they might be the perfect matchup schematically. The Chiefs run the 2nd-most two-high in the NFL (67%, +8% more than the next-closest team), and Samuel has seen his FP/RR jump +57% against two-high since 2022. Over this span, Samuel ranks top-5 in TPRR (0.29), YPRR (2.54), and FP/RR (0.57) against two-high. Chasing Samuel against these two-high defenses has led to great results, and I expect Week 7 to be no different.

Diontae Johnson, WR Carolina Panthers (@ WAS)

DraftKings: $6,600 (WR18) | FanDuel: $7,100 (WR18)

Johnson has averaged 21.0 XFP/G and 18.3 FPG since Andy Dalton took over. Over the full season, those numbers would rank 3rd-best and 8th-best.

Johnson has been one of the most glaring usage and productivity-based values in all of DFS for the last month. And that won’t change this week against a struggling Washington pass defense.

The Commanders rank as the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+7.3 FPG), and Carolina is a 7.5-point underdog here. Andy Dalton should be pushed toward 40 dropbacks in this game, and Johnson has scored 82% of his fantasy points this season in the three games Dalton attempted at least 35 passes. Johnson's projected volume and matchup suggest his DraftKings price should be at least $800 higher.

Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans (@ GB)

DraftKings: $6,500 (WR19) | FanDuel: $7,000 (WR19)

It shouldn’t be a shock, but Tank Dell earned his best usage of the season on Sunday (24.3 XFP), ranking behind only DK Metcalf and Chris Godwin in WR XFP. While that usage only amounted to 18.7 fantasy points, it’s obvious Dell is now at the forefront of the league’s most productive WR room by fantasy points scored. And his usage should only improve in Week 7, facing Green Bay in the 4th-highest total game (47.5) of the slate.

The Packers are a major outside funnel – allowing the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (where Dell runs ~75% of his routes), but the 9th-fewest to opposing slots. The Packers also rank bottom-6 in pressure rate, and Dell has seen his TPRR rise +55% on unpressured dropbacks dating back to last year. He’s simply too cheap, given the matchup and the role.

Noah Brown, WR, Washington Commanders (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $4,000 (WR57) | FanDuel: $5,000 (WR62)

Cover your eyes, because Noah Brown led the Commanders in target share (23%), XFP (16.6), and air yardage share (38%) in Week 6. Over the full season, no Washington player has earned better per-route usage than Brown (0.51 XFP/RR). And maybe this shouldn’t be surprising – Brown did score over 22.0 fantasy points in 43% of the games where he earned a route share over 20% last season.

He’s been a great WR since 2023 on a small sample. And, sure, the sample is still small; Brown hasn’t earned a route share over 62% in his four games with Washington. But he also joined the team on August 29th, and he’s dealt with a groin injury that cost him multiple games this season. There is still room for his role to grow, and maybe it will this week in a fantastic matchup with Carolina (the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs).

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $5,800 (TE3) | FanDuel: $7,000 (TE3)

Bowers currently leads the position in first-read targets (33), TPRR (0.29), and receiving YPG (64.0). He ranks just barely behind George Kittle for the positional lead in usage (13.4 XFP/G) and productivity (13.8 FPG). He leads the position in targets of 15+ air yards (8), and in designed targets, like screens (9). The combination of a downfield role and guaranteed, short-area targets is a lethal one for fantasy. It provides Bowers with a floor and ceiling that nearly no other TE at the position can match.

And Davante Adams is now a Jet. Without Adams in the lineup, Bowers’ usage jumped +42% – and his 15.8 XFP/G would easily lead all TEs over the full season.

Bowers’ Week 7 matchup is merely a neutral one, but the TE position is largely a disaster, and Bowers has a strong case to be the position’s most expensive player just a month and a half into his NFL career. If I’m paying up at TE, Bowers looks like my favorite way to do it.