2024 Week 11 DFS Early Look

Week 10 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 11 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 11 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 11 DFS:

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $6,600 (QB5) | FanDuel: $8,400 (QB4)

I’m not sure why, but Purdy is perpetually underpriced on DraftKings – especially now that his weapons are healthy. Purdy averaged an absurd 0.66 FP/DB in the 14 games he played last year with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. This year, that mark would rank 2nd-best among main slate-eligible QBs, behind only Lamar Jackson.

Efficiency aside, it’s arguably worth more to Purdy’s fantasy prospects that he’s playing in the highest-total game of Week 11 (49.5) against Seattle. Two of Purdy’s three best regular season games came in contests with a total over 46.0, and Seattle ranks as the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs through the air (+1.3 passing YPG). This is the only spot on the main slate with total over 48.0 that doesn’t project to be a complete blowout (49ers -6.5), and will make Purdy one of the most popular QB options of the week.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $8,300 (RB1) | FanDuel: $9,800 (RB1)

McCaffrey was back to his usual workload in Week 10 – ranking top-3 among RBs in snap share (87%), route share (68%), and targets (7). It only translated to 16.7 DraftKings points, and he didn’t look like a word-beater on film, but we know big games will come for McCaffrey.

McCaffrey posted an 80% snap share last season, and easily led all RBs in FPG (25.0) and XFP/G (20.0). We know he will be out there for nearly every snap in the best scoring environment of the slate (49.5 total) in Week 11, and he’s $1,300 cheaper on DraftKings than in Week 17 of 2023. Combine that with a top-4 schedule-adjusted rushing matchup, and it’s easy to see the bull case for McCaffrey.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (VS. CLE)

DraftKings: $8,200 (RB2) | FanDuel: $8,200 (RB9)

Kamara has averaged 24.7 XFP/G, 24.7 FPG, a 25% target share, and a 78% snap share over the last two weeks. Over the full season, those numbers would rank 1st, 1st, 1st, and 3rd among RBs. I have no clue why Kamara is still being treated as a low-end RB1 on FanDuel.

Jamaal Williams suffered a setback with his groin injury (per the Coachspeak Index), and Kendre Miller is on IR. Combine that with a litany of injuries to pass catchers, and Kamara should continue to earn a league-leading ~38% of backfield XFP like we’ve seen over the last two games. He profiles as an incredible FanDuel value this week, even in a bottom-3 schedule-adjusted matchup with Cleveland.

Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos (VS. ATL)

DraftKings: $4,500 (RB44) | FanDuel: $5,400 (RB34)

It’s been a while since we’ve seen some serious RB value on the board, and Estime just might be it in Week 11. On Sunday, Estime earned 14 of 17 backfield carries, 65% of backfield XFP, and 2 of 3 backfield red zone opportunities. He scored just 5.3 fantasy points, but it was against the single-toughest schedule-adjusted rushing matchup in the NFL – the Kansas City Chiefs.

This week, Estime gets a notably easier matchup against Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite. There is still plenty of risk here – Bo Nix could vulture rushing TDs, and Estime would almost certainly be scripted out if Denver falls behind. But the opportunity to play a $4,500 RB with a clear path to ~15 carries opens up so much for your lineup that Estime demands consideration in Week 11.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (VS. BAL)

DraftKings: $7,000 (WR8) | FanDuel: $7,500 (WR13)

The addition of Russell Wilson has been worth a ~20% boost to George Pickens’ catchable air yards and a ~16% boost to his XFP/G. And while those boosts may not seem like much, it’s no coincidence that both of Pickens’ 20-plus point fantasy outings this season have come with Wilson under center.

Generally speaking, Pickens is too expensive relative to his usage (11.8 XFP/G with Wilson), but we can overlook that in a truly perfect matchup. The Ravens are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+12.3 FPG) – allowing more than twice as much schedule-adjusted production to the position as the next-worst team (Detriot). Alongside the San Francisco vs. Seattle game, this Steelers game is – according to Vegas – one of the only high-total games with the potential to shootout. And that’s precisely what Pickens needs to succeed. His volume is held back by a bottom-5 neutral situation pass rate (53%) – but the Steelers will have every incentive to air it out against an extremely vulnerable pass defense as 3.0-point underdogs this week.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (VS. MIA)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR28) | FanDuel: $6,200 (WR27)

Meyers has earned at least 7 targets in every game he’s played without Davante Adams, averaging a 37% first-read target share, alongside 15.1 XFP/G and 15.5 DraftKings FPG over that span. Among slate-eligible WRs, 15.5 DraftKings FPG would rank 9th-best. And among all WRs, a 37% first-read target share would rank 5th-best – ahead of players like Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and Ja’Marr Chase. That usage makes it easy to call Meyers a strong value, even in a bottom-3 schedule-adjusted matchup against Miami – granted, I might outright repent this take if Desmond Ridder starts in Week 11.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $5,300 (WR35) | FanDuel: $6,200 (WR27)

Jennings earned the 8th-best usage among Week 10 WRs and TEs (17.8 XFP) on the back of a team-leading 10 first-read targets. It would be easy to write that off as a one-time usage bump – but I think that would be a grave mistake. Kyle Shanahan noted postgame that this was Jennings’ first game as the X WR within this offense – and that he’ll be playing that position for the rest of the year. And that’s just too good of a role to pass up at just $5,300 on DraftKings, especially in a top-10 schedule-adjusted matchup (+2.7 FPG).

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (VS. NO)

DraftKings: $5,300 (WR35) | FanDuel: $6,500 (WR22)

I really can’t believe that DraftKings hasn’t made more of an effort to price up Tillman. Since Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles, Tillman ranks 6th in catchable targets per game (7.7), 4th in XFP/G (19.5), and 2nd (behind only Ja’Marr Chase) in DraftKings FPG (23.2). It doesn’t take much to notice that his WR35 DraftKings price tag is an egregious error.

And now Tillman draws a Saints secondary that just traded away Marshon Lattimore, lost starting CB Paulson Adebo to IR, and didn’t have Round 2 rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry in Week 10 due to injury. Tillman – already one of the most mispriced players of Week 11 – could be looking at one of his best matchups of the season against a beat-up New Orleans secondary.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (@ BUF)

DraftKings: $6,300 (TE1) | FanDuel: $7,400 (TE2)

Kelce ranked 3rd among WRs in Week 10 XFP (21.2), and he ranks behind only CeeDee Lamb in catchable targets per game (9.5) since Week 7. Slow start be damned, the workload for Kelce is just incredible. He’s priced as the WR18 on DraftKings, but he’s earned 18.6 XFP/G over the last month – the 4th-best workload among main slate-eligible WRs.

And the matchup with Buffalo can only help. Kelce’s 6.5 aDOT is the lowest among Kansas City’s healthy pass catchers. Buffalo has allowed the 4th-most receptions (200) and the 6th-highest catch rate on throws under 15 yards. If the Bills continue to funnel volume underneath, double-digit targets is a near-lock for Kelce – as his recent usage has ranked among the best receivers in the NFL.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (@ NO)

DraftKings: $5,500 (TE4) | FanDuel: $6,600 (TE4)

Njoku ranks 5th among all players in catchable targets per game since Week 7 (8.0), behind only Cade Otton, Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Kelce, and CeeDee Lamb. Over this span, Njoku is the WR15 by XFP/G (15.5) and DraftKings FPG (17.2), yet he is priced as the WR31 by DraftKings salary.

With value drying up as we get deeper into the year, we need to start viewing our high-end TEs as WRs – that’s who they are directly competing with for targets and flex consideration within our DFS lineups. That viewpoint makes it clear that high-end TEs – including Njoku – are grossly underpriced. And until that pricing dynamic no longer exists, I’ll be happy to play TEs like Njoku and Kelce in my flex in the weeks where they present as strong WR values.