Week 9 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 10 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 10 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.
Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 10 DFS:
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (@ JAX)
DraftKings: $6,200 (QB9) | FanDuel: $7,800 (QB8)
Darnold is the QB7 among Week 10 starters by FP/DB (0.56), which always makes him a tempting play in a game that offers a solid offensive environment (46.0 total) with a relatively close spread (Vikings -4.0).
But the matchup here is truly awesome. The Jaguars are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+8.6 FPG), allowing the league’s highest passer rating (113.4) and the 2nd-most passing YPG (278.0). This pass defense is so bad that it’s shaping up as by far the single-softest schedule-adjusted opponent for QBs of the last three years. We know Darnold can be hyper-efficient in this offense, which should only be potentiated by the matchup. Darnold has an easy path to a slate-wrecking score if the Jaguars can just keep the game relatively close.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (VS. TEN)
DraftKings: $5,200 (QB21) | FanDuel: $6,900 (QB20)
Los Angeles has posted a +5.8% pass rate over expectation (PROE) since Week 7, a mark that would rank 4th-highest over the full year. Over that stretch, Herbert ranks 2nd in passing YPG (303.3), 6th in pass attempts (98), and 10th in FPG (19.4).
And keep in mind that these numbers could easily be better. On Sunday, Herbert scored 18.0 of his 19.5 fantasy points in the first half. The Chargers attempted just 11 passes in the 2nd half because they maintained a three-possession lead for the final 35 minutes of the game.
I doubt Tennessee’s struggling offense can push the Chargers to a ceiling performance this week, which the 8.0-point spread here hints at. But Herbert is priced among the cheapest starters on the slate, despite playing quite well since the Chargers bye in a surprisingly pass-heavy offense. Expect Herbert to pop as one of the best low-priced QB options of the Week 10 slate.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings (VS. JAX)
DraftKings: $6,700 (RB12) | FanDuel: $7,900 (RB12)
Jones has recorded 85% of backfield XFP (3rd-best over the full season) and an 81% snap share (2nd-best among RBs) over the last three weeks. In Week 8, he led all RBs in snap share (92%), and in Week 9, he ranked 2nd in route share (65%) and 5th in XFP (20.7).
The recent workload for Jones has been tremendous. Outside of some empty snaps for Cam Akers, the entirety of backfield usage flows through Jones.
And his Week 10 matchup with Jacksonville sets up beautifully. It’s a top-2 on-paper matchup according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. The Vikings' implied win probability is 66%, and Jones’ rushing YPG has nearly doubled (from 47.7 to 79.1) in wins since 2022, while his per-snap productivity jumps +53% while leading. This looks like one of the best spots of the year to play an underpriced Aaron Jones.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (VS. NE)
DraftKings: $6,500 (RB14) | FanDuel: $7,700 (RB14)
Swift has earned at least 18 touches in five straight games, averaging 17.4 XFP/G and 20.9 FPG – marks that would both rank top-7 among RBs over the full season.
Swift is effectively a bell cow priced as a high-end RB2, and that’s a pricing mistake I’m eager to take advantage of in this matchup. New England is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+4.1 rushing FPG). The Patriots have allowed the 7th-most rushing YPG (136.9), the 4th-most yards after contact per attempt (2.6), and – crucially – the 6th-highest YPC (5.3) on man/gap concept runs. Almost 60% of Swift’s carries and 62% of his rushing yards have come on man/gap concepts. The schematic and on-paper matchups are great, as is the price. Swift will likely be one of the chalkiest RBs when the slate locks on Sunday, with everything lining up for him this week.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ WAS)
DraftKings: $6,200 (RB19) | FanDuel: $7,100 (RB19)
Harris is still spitting backfield reps with Jaylen Warren – and his mediocre 58% snap share over the last two weeks reflects that. But Harris is also the RB11 by XFP/G (17.2) over that stretch, and he’s been playing relatively well this year. Harris ranks 9th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21) and 15th in yards after contact per attempt (2.71) among 47 qualifying RBs with at least 50 rushes.
And his Week 10 matchup with Washington could be worth a notable boost to his usage. The Commanders are the league’s biggest run funnel this season (-6.3% PROE allowed) while ranking as the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+2.8 FPG). The only notable concern for Harris is gamescript, but the spread (Washington -2.5) implied a close game is the most likely outcome here. If that’s the case, a Harris ceiling game also appears likely.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (@ JAX)
DraftKings: $8,800 (WR1) | FanDuel: $9,500 (WR1)
There haven’t been any slate-breaking performances from Jefferson this season, but he’s still leading his position in games of over 20.0 DraftKings points (6). In a world where WRs are struggling mightly for production, Jefferson remains an all-time great fantasy asset.
And now Jefferson draws the Jaguars – the league’s 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+8.5 FPG). The only thing that could slow him down is a blowout win that forces Minnesota to run the clock out, but the meager 4.0-point spread implies this game has a solid chance to shoot out. I plan on being overweight Jefferson against a defense that’s surrendered the 2nd-most receiving YPG (278.0).
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. MIN)
DraftKings: $6,600 (WR12) | FanDuel: $7,300 (WR14)
The Vikings have been a top-4 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs this season (+4.3 FPG), allowing the 4th-most receiving yards on throws of 15+ yards (106.9). Thomas averages the 9th-most receiving YPG on throws of 15+ yards (42.0). With Christian Kirk out of the fold, Thomas has earned 39% of Jacksonville’s air yards if we look at their healthy pass catchers. His workload against a defense that’s funneled significant volume deep could be among his best of the season, especially in a game where Jacksonville will need to throw as 4.0-point underdogs.
But I should note this is a take only applicable to DFS tournaments. Thomas hasn’t earned more than 6 targets in a game since Week 6, and Trevor Lawrence is only averaging a 61% completion percentage – the 8th-lowest mark in the NFL among QBs with over 100 pass attempts. Still, Thomas is a special talent, and one that has a chance to break the slate if this defense simply lets up a few big plays.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (VS. BUF)
DraftKings: $6,200 (WR16) | FanDuel: $7,100 (WR16)
Downs is averaging a 34% first-read target share, 10.0 targets per game, and 17.3 XFP/G in games Joe Flacco has started. If we extrapolated those metrics to the full season, they would rank 8th-best, 5th-best, and 8th-best among WRs. We’ve said over and over again – and the data continues to prove – that Downs is a mid-range WR1 with Flacco at QB.
While his Week 10 game against Buffalo looks like a tough matchup on the surface, the Bills are a clear slot funnel (where Downs runs 85% of his routes). Buffalo has allowed the 7th-highest target share (36%) and 8th-most receiving YPG (87.4) to opposing players lined up in the slot this season. Downs is already getting fed targets in a Flacco-led offense, and we should only expect more in Week 10, given the matchup and the Colts’ ~35% implied win probability.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints (VS. ATL)
DraftKings: $4,000 (TE13) | FanDuel: $6,300 (TE7)
Hill has earned at least 4 targets, at least 4 carries, and thrown at least 1 pass in back-to-back games. His role is like something out of a 1949 offense, but the Swiss Army knife role only gets more valuable as injuries pile up in New Orleans.
The Saints are down 30% of their targets with Chris Olave lost for the foreseeable future and Rasheed Shaheed done for the season. And Hill effectively functioned as their RB2 in Week 9 since New Orleans was missing Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller.
There are a lot of ways Hill can get you there for fantasy. Among the remaining healthy players, Hill is tied for the 2nd-most end zone targets (1), and he’s earned the 2nd-most red zone carries (5) – despite playing in just 5 games. It’s rare to get a $4,000 TE who projects for double-digit touches, but that’s what we are looking at with Hill until the Saints get healthy – which might not happen this season.
