Thoughts of an NFL Scout: 2024 Week 2

Exhale … we made it through 2024 NFL Week 1.

For fan bases of most teams (well… probably not Carolina), the first few days after your Week 1 game are full of overreactive thoughts and praise that could end up flipping the other way in a few weeks. It’s only been one game, but a portion of every winning fan base loves how its team played, and another portion thinks the coach needs to be fired because they didn’t win big enough.

Every year, Week 1 goes poorly for some teams (Bengals, Browns, he Ravens OL), and the sky is falling until the next game…

… but it also goes better than expected for others (Patriots, Bears, Vikings)!

The big thing to remember after these games is that it was just one game. Football teams need three or four games to figure out their identity so we’re still in the feel-out portion of the schedule, and many of the players are still in ramp-up mode even if they practiced all of training camp.

The way teams refuse to play their starters at any point in the preseason leads to wacky scenarios and results on opening day that truly cannot be what’s expected of teams as the season progresses. Did anyone expect the score to be 5-3 at one point in Seattle, or that Denver would get two safeties in that game? Players aren’t crisp in Week 1 so there’s a lot more luck involved in early-season games than you’d expect.

That’s a roundabout way of saying, “Do not overreact to Week 1.”

We’ve got a brand new slate of games starting on Thursday night, so here are my thoughts heading into Week 2 with a new section detailing offensive lines I’m worried about. (Yes, the Ravens will be in there.)

WEEK 2 OL/DL MATCHUPS TO WATCH

LV @ BLT — RAVENS OL vs RAIDERS DL

Right out of the gate, this is a redemption game not only for the Ravens but for myself as well. I slapped the No. 5 ranking on this group coming into the season, and they got demolished by Kansas City on opening night. Chris Jones abused all three of the young guys up front for Baltimore and Lamar Jackson was running for his life all game long.

I can’t believe this is true but the O-line stats weren’t as bad as expected for Baltimore, at least in the run game. The Ravens were 3rd-best in adjusted rush yards before contact per carry (ADJ YBC/ATT), which takes out trick plays and scrambles, at 2.81. This is a bit skewed toward Lamar as Derrick Henry averaged only 1.77 YBC/ATT, so Lamar was seeing much less resistance on his designed runs (granted, there were only seven of them). There’s a glimmer of hope for the young Raven run blockers as the Raider D-line was 32nd in ADJ YBC/ATT at 4.91 allowed.

Pass protection was much worse for the Ravens. Baltimore’s O-line was 29th in Pressure Rate in Week 1 at 47.1%, but that might be the toughest environment they’ll play in for the rest of the regular season. Mad Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins are a solid pair of pass-rushers, but Baltimore gets a bit of a break for their home opener as the Raiders were ranked 27th for D-lines in PrROE (Pressure Rate Over Expected). I like the Ravens O-line to bounce back this week.

LAR @ ARI — RAMS OL vs CARDINALS DL

Sticking with my trend from last week, target the Arizona D-line until told otherwise. I was surprised with how well the Cardinals were able to disrupt Josh Allen early in the game on Sunday, but once the Buffalo offense started getting the ball out fast that quickly went away. Arizona finished Week 1 ranked 25th in Pressure% (31.8%), and 25th in ADJ YBC/ATT (2.08) against a Buffalo run game that wasn’t overly efficient.

This is good for the short-handed LA offensive line that finished 17th in ADJ YBC/ATT (1.60) and 22nd in Pressure% (38.0%) after a tough matchup against Detroit. The Rams will likely have to change things up as Steve Avila, Kevin Dotson, and Joe Noteboom are all dealing with injuries after Week 1, with Avila being an IR candidate. Expect Matthew Stafford to get the ball out quickly (which should be more good news for Cooper Kupp owners), as he’ll have to navigate a new O-line in Week 2.

ATL @ PHI — EAGLES OL vs FALCONS DL

In the first “All-Bird” matchup of 2024, I’m looking for the Eagles to have a good day on the ground. Other than the slip on his first carry, Saquon Barkley looked decisive, quick, and powerful in his first game for Philly, putting up 109 yards on 24 carries while dealing with a lot of backfield traffic. Watching the game live, it didn’t appear that Green Bay was causing trouble for him, but Barkley averaged -0.83 yards before contact and the Eagles had the worst ADJ YBC/ATT at -0.53. I think a lot of this was a product of Green Bay not being concerned with Jalen Hurts as a thrower (plus poor field conditions) in what was easily one of the worst games of his career, but this will need to be addressed.

That said, I like this matchup for Philly given Atlanta’s D-line having some trouble against Pittsburgh. The Falcons D-line came in at #17 in ADJ YBC/ATT (1.62) which isn’t atrocious, but giving up free yardage against what I feel is a lower-level Steeler offensive line is not a good sign heading into Philadelphia. I’m no bird lawyer, but I see the writing on the wall that the Eagles will be able to move the ball on the ground.

BUF @ MIA — BILLS DL vs DOLPHINS OL

Shifting to the favorable D-line matchups, we’ll start with Buffalo at Miami. Since Tua Tagovailoa became the starter for Miami the Bills have been his kryptonite. Tua is 1-6 against Buffalo with his only win coming at home with a heat index pushing triple digits. He’s been sacked 18 times and thrown eight INTs in those seven games despite having a lightning-quick average Time To Throw (aT2T) of just over 2.3 seconds. To their credit, the Miami O-line/offense did what I thought they would in Week 1 and kept the aT2T low at 2.35 seconds to produce the 2nd lowest Pressure% of the week at just 17.1%.

In theory, the Dolphins should do the same thing this week against a Buffalo D-line that was 8th Pressure% at 42.1%. HC Sean McDermott has this team’s number and can consistently disrupt the Miami offense, but a lot of the stalwarts of the Buffalo defense are either injured or off the team with one of them, Jordan Poyer, now playing for Miami. DE Greg Rousseau tallied three sacks and a forced fumble vs Arizona and has slowly become the net great Bills defender under McDermott. Look for him to have another big game this week.

NO @ DAL — COWBOYS DL vs SAINTS OL

This is an intriguing matchup for me based off of each units Pressure% numbers. The Dallas D-line was 6th last week at 46.3% and the New Orleans O-line was 10th at 26.9% — something has to give. On paper, this is a good pass-rush matchup in the trenches, but I don’t think it’s overly complicated.

Dallas faced a Cleveland O-line that was banged up but still had its interior three intact, whereas New Orleans went up against the Panters. Logically, I have to lean towards Dallas being that good and the Saints being propped up by playing a bad team. Expect DeMarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons, and the crew to have another good day, otherwise the Saints O-line might actually be good.

PIT @ DEN — STEELERS DL vs BRONCOS OL

My final notable matchup could get ugly quickly on Sunday as the Steelers go up against a rookie QB in Bo Nix who just couldn’t figure it out against Seattle. The Denver OL was 28th in Pressure% (46.9%) so he didn’t get much help and I can’t imagine it will get much better this week since Nix loved holding onto the ball with an aT2T of 2.7 seconds. Pittsburgh counters with a DL ranked 14th in Pressure% (35.7%) while only blitzing 14.3%. This group can get home rushing four so I’m very confident TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith will be up to the task.

OFFENSIVE LINES OF CONCERN

I’ll use this section as needed throughout the season to highlight groups that are shaky or flat-out bad over a few weeks. Since there’s only been one game there aren’t any trends yet, but these two units had some issues in Week 1.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

It was a tough look when my #5 ranked offensive line had that type of performance on opening night, and I could tell it was going to be rough early on when RG Daniel Faalele got worked with a wipe move by Chris Jones on the second snap of the game. Faalele, Andrew Vorhees, and Roger Rosengarten all got a baptism by fire in their first extended action, and I just don’t understand Baltimore’s O-line plan.

In the preseason I was shocked Faalele was getting first-team reps at RG given how bad he looked in the games, which made me think Ben Cleveland must have fallen off a cliff in the off-season, so the depth this team enjoyed might not be legit. I also don’t understand the right tackle rotation. I like Patrick Mekari a lot, but they drafted Rosengarten in the second round to presumably be the starting right tackle. He obviously didn’t show them enough in camp to earn the starting role, and going into that game cold was just asking for problems.

I’m still confident this unit will figure things out the more they all play together, but Week 1 was a shockingly bad performance for this offensive line.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

There’s a lot to unpack here, but my concerns are about the injuries, inability to run the ball, and poor QB play. There was a report last week saying Jack Conklin could move to LT while Jedrick Wills remained out, and come game time fourth-year tackle James Hudson got the start while Conklin was inactive. That doesn’t give me confidence either Wills or Conklin will play in Week 2 and I have to think missing both guys led to the team rushing for just 93 yards in Week 1 and finishing 23rd in ADJ YBC/ATT at 1.21.

I get that they were behind just about all game, but I always expect the Browns to be able to run the ball well. Let’s be honest, though. The overarching issue facing this team is the quarterback, so until they get him sorted out, defenses will tee-off on this offensive line.

OTHER WEEK 2 THOUGHTS

Can Sam Darnold be good in O’Connell’s offense and keep the Vikings in the mix?

I’ve said it many times — don’t overreact to Week 1. But I was surprisingly pleased with how Sam Darnold performed in his first start for the Vikings. On a day where no quarterback really lit things up through the air, Darnold fell in line, going 19/24 for 208 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT. After a shaky start that included a sack on his first dropback and a fumble on his first completion, Darnold settled in well and was a confident thrower for the rest of the game.

I was also impressed with his poise and ability to stand in the pocket vs. pressure. The Giants pressured Darnold on 38.5% of dropbacks, which was good for 10th-best in Week 1, but he never seemed flustered or panicked in the pocket. It’s a good sign of his maturity as a quarterback going from “seeing ghosts” as a Jet to now being confident standing in with defenders bearing down on him. I have to imagine this maturity is attributed to spending a year with San Francisco and then going to another QB-friendly offensive situation in Minnesota.

Things will get tougher this week going up against the 49ers with WR Jordan Addison’s (ankle) status uncertain and they have a brutal stretch of games from now until Halloween. I like what I saw in Week 1, now he has to prove that it wasn’t just because they were playing a bad team.

Enjoy Week 2!