Redrafting the 2024 NFL Draft

Draft season is basically here, and I figured the best way to dive into drive coverage was to redraft the 2024 class. Now that we have a full season (almost) of play under each of the rookies' belts, it feels appropriate to examine their performance, and my favorite quick format to do that is to throw them all back in the pool and redraft them out. My methodology is simple. I am still heavily weighing each player's pre-draft evaluation while also considering all the new information we have. I used the Fantasy Points Data Suite to support some of my arguments, as well.

Regarding the new information: I am acting like the 2024 season has played out, but all the rookies go back into the player pool to be drafted again before 2025. (So teams already know the performance level of breakout veterans like Sam Darnold.)

Let's get after it.

2024 NFL DRAFT (AGAIN)

1) Chicago Bears: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (Previous: Caleb Williams)

Daniels was not my favorite QB coming out in 2024 but there is no doubt he has been the best (McCarthy hasn’t even played). The two big wow factors with Daniel’s game coming out were his downfield accuracy and his legs/playmaking ability, both of which he has leaned on.

However, a big piece of Daniels’ success has been quickly developing some of the weaker parts of his game. The biggest example would be what I would call a crazy slow trigger in college, where he would routinely invite chaos into his life and unnecessarily extend plays. As a rookie, he has made a concerted effort to speed that process and has the third-fastest Time-to-Throwing among qualifying quarterbacks (2.35 seconds).

In my opinion, this has been the main driver behind his 6th-ranked catchable ball rate (77.8%) and keeping himself clean despite a far below-average offensive line situation. Here, Chicago takes the mulligan on their franchise quarterback situation and grabs Daniels.

2) Washington Commanders: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan (Previous: Jayden Daniels)

This is a tough one, as McCarthy hasn’t played due to injury, but I am standing by my pre-draft evaluation of him. In fact, I am willing to one-up this conversation and say if he were the Minnesota Vikings’ starting QB right now, they would be my pick to win the Super Bowl. While the Commanders lose out on their original pick in Daniel’, their consolation prize is getting the best QB in the class, and — gun to my head — I would still pick McCarthy to have the better career.

3) New England Patriots: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (Previous: Drake Maye)

Patriots fans are probably very excited about some of the moments they have gotten from Drake Maye this season. However, if this season has taught us anything, it's that this roster isn’t even remotely close to taking on a new franchise QB. Two data points stick out like a sore thumb in this regard.

• The offensive line allows pressure on a league-leading 40.4% of dropbacks.

• NE has one WR who ranks in the top 100 in A.S.S. (Demario Douglas, who ranks 42nd).

This offense needs a major injection of talent before it’s ready for the next franchise guy, and that might take some time. This is much less about Maye being disappointing (he’s been fine) than it is about making the right pick for the situation. Alt is having one of the best rookie offensive tackle seasons I have ever seen. This should have been the pick all along.

4) Arizona Cardinals: Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU (Previous: Marvin Harrison Jr.)

Thomas has undoubtedly been the best rookie WR through one season.

It's time for me to take a victory lap, I suppose. I was one of a few draft analysts who proclaimed the top of this WR class as a “big-4” rather than a big-3. All four of the top guys ranked inside my top-12 players in the class.

5) Los Angeles Chargers: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (Previous: Joe Alt)

With the Chargers missing out on Alt in this redraft, they go with the pick everyone mocked to them throughout last draft season. Bowers was always worth a pick this high, but fell to 13th overall, perhaps because of the “premium” position factor. He quickly proved he belonged as he put up the single best rookie TE season of all time, already surpassing most of the records Sam LaPorta set just a year ago.

6) New York Giants: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (Previous: Malik Nabers)

It was always absurd that the Giants passed on the 2024 QB class, so here, they make the wrong things right by taking Maye. There is certainly an argument for Bo Nix here, too, but the overlapping skill set between Maye and Josh Allen feels right, with Brian Daboll still the architect in New York.

7) Tennessee Titans: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon (Previous: JC Latham)

Heading into the 2024 season, I wanted to see how a matador QB like Will Levis would perform in the timing and rhythm-based west-coast style offense led by Brian Callahan. It wasn’t pretty. Levis is probably the exact wrong type of QB for this offense, but Nix, stylistically, is perfect. Nix has definitely exceeded expectations this year despite not having a ton to work with in Denver. In this re-draft he improves his draft stock by 5 slots.

8) Atlanta Falcons: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (Previous: Michael Penix Jr.)

The Falcons defense has been an embarrassment in year one of the Raheem Morris era, and in hindsight, a baller like Mitchell could dramatically change that.

Mitchell should have been a top-10 pick back in April and in this alternate universe I get to cash my failed “Mitchell first defensive player drafted” prop. Mitchell has forced incompletions at a rate of over 20% as a rookie which is nothing short of incredible.

9) Chicago Bears: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (Previous: Rome Odunze)

Nabers falling a few spots in this re-draft has absolutely nothing to do with him, as he has been awesome. It's more to do with the QBs being slotted correctly and sneaking in Bowers and Mitchell into the top 10. If you are the Bears in this scenario, you have to be thrilled with getting some +EV despite picking in the same slot (although Odunze has been mostly fine).

10) Minnesota Vikings: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State (Previous: JJ McCarthy)

The emergence of Sam Darnold, even though I still have my issues with him, lets the Vikings take the best player available. Verse has been an absolute monster for the Rams this season and would be a really fun player to add to the Flores pressure machine. He can win with pure power and physicality but has also been great on stunts/twists.

11) New York Jets: Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State (Previous: Olu Fashanu)

The Aaron Rodgers experiment has failed miserably so either we have to go with a QB here or set ourselves up better for the next QB. I am concerned with what I have seen from Caleb Williams, so let's go WR.

I will stand by my evaluation of Harrison and still have a ton of confidence he will be a stud. In fact, I think there have been moments this year that rival the best stuff we have seen from both Thomas and Nabers. I truly believe Marv's disappointing year has been in large part due to wildly inconsistent quarterback play and goofy play calling/design from the OC.

12) Denver Broncos: Caleb Williams, QB, USC (Previous: Bo Nix)

I will spare you my long winded commentary on Caleb Williams’ performance as a rookie. (If you’re interested, I will point you to my podcast First Read in which I cover it in detail.) I will say, however, that Caleb’s performance has not matched that of a first-round QB, especially one taken 1st overall. The only thing holding his value here is the raw talent we all know he has. I love the idea of Sean Payton getting to work with that talent and potentially pulling the greatness out of him so this might be a best of both worlds outcome for all parties involved.

As critical as that sounded, I would caution people not to throw away the baby with the bath water. QBs develop at different rates, and the recent success stories of Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and even Jordan Love should tell you this might not happen right away, and that's OK.

13) Los Vegas Raiders: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia (Previous: Brock Bowers)

Our first non-2024 first-rounder makes the leap! McConkey’s next-level route-running has been as advertised. He ranks 7th overall in our average separation score and has been equally good out wide or in the slot. He can win vertically and has produced on designed targets in go-to situations. The Raiders might miss out on their original Georgia pass catcher, but they must feel great going back to the well with McConkey in this redraft.

14) New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State (Previous: Taliese Fuaga)

The Saints don’t change a thing. Fuaga was one of my favorite OL prospects in the class and has not disappointed. It’s a much-needed slam dunk for the Saints, who don’t get to acquire talent any other way except through the draft because they are constantly in salary cap hell.

15) Indianapolis Colts: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (Previous: Laiatu Latu)

The Colts absolutely don’t need a wide receiver, but passing on Odunze's talent is something I cannot do for them. He is like a super-soldier serum version of Michael Pittman Jr. and was one of my favorite players in the 24’ class. He falls a little bit here because of the performance of some of his peers in the class, but overall, I still love his potential in the league.

16) Seattle Seahawks: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington (Previous: Byron Murphy II)

The final QB comes off the board here at pick 16 — not too dissimilar from what happened in the actual draft. The Geno Smith experiment has been fun but this season has shown the Seahawks need better answers at the quarterback position for the long term. The Seahawks were reportedly in on Penix during the draft process, so reuniting him with his college OC Ryan Grubb just feels natural and like the best possible outcome for the Seahawks in this redraft.

17) Minnesota Vikings: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State (Previous: Dallas Turner)

Two picks, two EDGE rushers for Minnesota. I am sure Vikings fans don’t mind getting absolute steals at both spots and loading the war chest on defense for Brian Flores. Robinson is the exact type of EDGE twho could make this whole thing go boom (it's already insanely good). His ability to rush, blitz, and devastate you on stunts/twists with his ridiculous closing speed is exactly the type of weaponry that terrifies me as a fan of a fellow NFC North team. Robinson is better than I thought he would be, granted he is being used exactly how he should be in Miami.

18) Cincinnati Bengals: JC Latham, OT, Alabama (Previous: Amarius Mims)

Latham has been mostly fine in a really rough year for the Titans' offense. His pass-protection has actually been better than advertised, and that is exactly what the Bengals need. I am not out on Mims by any means but this is a case of a mulligan working out, at least for the here and now.

19) Los Angeles Rams: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA (Previous: Jared Verse)

The Rams initially got the best defensive player in the class all the way down here at #19. Obviously, in a redraft that changes a bit they still get an absolute stud of a prospect in Latu, who I thought was the most polished pass-rushing prospect to come out in 5+ years.

20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Zach Frazier, IOL, West Virginia (Previous: Troy Fautanu)

The Steelers identified a top-20 player in the class when they took Frazier in the second round and are now forced to grab him in the first to hold onto him. Frazier will be a mainstay on their offensive line for years to come.

21) Miami Dolphins: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama (Previous: Chop Robinson)

The Dolphins lost out on their original pick in Robinson but still need a youthful talent injection at EDGE. Turner was a major disappointment to start the year but has really elevated his play recently — enough to keep him in the first round for sure. With Turner, they get a guy who can be used very similarly to the way they were using Robinson, so it's not a lose/lose situation.

22) Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa (Previous: Quinyon Mitchell)

The Eagles and Howie Roseman consistently draft well, so it shouldn’t be a shock that they just end up going to their second-round pick after missing out on their first-round pick in this redraft. DeJean should have always been a first-rounder and was my CB3 in the class behind Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. He is a tailor-made fit in the Vic Fangio defense and has been excellent for them. Easy pick here.

23) Jacksonville Jaguars: Graham Barton, IOL, Duke (Previous: Brian Thomas Jr.)

Trent Baalke nailed this pick. Unfortunately for him, Thomas is now a top-5 selection, and there isn’t a WR here really worth going after, so they will need to pivot.

Barton might not be the super traitsy prospect Baalke normally latches onto but it is time the Jags stop ignoring the OL. Barton has been a tone-setter for a new-look Buccaneers offense. Liam Coen gets a ton of credit for the success on offense there, but Barton deserves a ton as well.

The Bucs' rushing offense is the most impressive in the NFL because they do it without a rushing QB. Since their bye (Week 11), the Bucs have amassed over 1100 yards on the ground (184 yards per game) and have run at a 5.55 yards per carry clip, while the OL has generated 2.39 yards before contact per carry. Barton has been the X factor in that regard. He would do wonders for a Jags OL that hasn’t been able to sustain a rushing attack in years.

24) Detroit Lions: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (Previous: Terrion Arnold)

Arnold got off to a rocky start, racking up 7 defensive penalties in coverage the first 4 weeks of the season (all DPI, IC, or DH). Since then, however, he has been good and has overcome a less-than-savory hand along the way, as the Lions have had to lean on him more given their preposterous number of defensive injuries,

Since Week 4, he has given up just two TDs and has racked up 10 forced incompletions while being penalized only once. Arnold has the mental makeup and physicality at the position the Lions love. They are thrilled with the pick and have locked in their CB1 of the future.

25) Green Bay Packers: Dominick Puni, OT, Kansas (Previous: Jordan Morgan)

This is less about the original pick and more about the new pick. Puni — a 2024 third-round pick — has been huge for the 49ers this year, but unfortunately, it was a lost season for them. His transition from primarily being an offensive tackle in college to kicking inside to guard with the 49ers has been flawless, and he has immediately been their second-best OL behind HOFer Trent Williams. The Packers love these versatility OL types and gladly get a plus player here at 25.

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tarheeb Still, CB, Maryland (Previous: Graham Barton)

The Bucs nailed the Barton pick, but he’s gone by this poits. Enter the biggest riser of the draft so far! Still has been a revelation for the Chargers this year. He earned a full-time role as a fourth-round pick and has delivered every step of the way. In coverage this year he has allowed a passer rating against under 80 and has flashed some serious ball skills and playmaking ability. The Bucs secondary has also been horrific so this brings some stability to a weak link.

27) Arizona Cardinals: Byron Murphy II, IDL, Texas (Previous: Darius Robinson)

The Cardinals stick with IDL as the position here but opt to go with an extremely talented player in Murphy, who has had a very up-and-down rookie season. The traits I love are still there, though.

28) Kansas City Chiefs: AD Mitchell, WR, Texas (Previous: Xavier Worthy)

It was my contention at the time that Xavier Worthy should not have been a first-round pick. He’s flashed, but ultimately, the film and data back that point up through his first year. However, I was wrong about his Texas teammate. The tape on Mitchell, albeit in a limited sample, is absurd. This guy is a big-time route runner and 3-level threat. Unfortunately for him, he landed on a team with a very good WR corps, but in the moments he has gotten, he has looked like a stud and the complete WR the Chiefs need long term.

29) Dallas Cowboys: T’Vondre Sweat, IDL, Texas (Previous: Tyler Guyton)

The Cowboys' run defense has been an embarrassment, and Sweat has been a world-beating run defender. It is exceptionally rare for me to put a run-stuffing nose tackle in the first round, but he has been that good this year.

30) Baltimore Ravens: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan (Previous: Nate Wiggins)

The original pick of Wiggins hasn’t necessarily been bad, but Sainristil has been awesome. I called Sainristil the “safest pick” of the 2024 draft, a la Brian Branch in 2023. Similarly, it was wild to me that he wasn’t a first-round pick.

I also really love his versatility. While he is undersized, he is excellent as a press-man corner but also has the instincts, physicality, and versatility to play in the slot or in zone-heavy game plans. That versatility is something the Ravens have always valued in their secondary.

31) San Francisco 49ers: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia (Previous: Ricky Pearsall)

Ricky’s slow start is obviously not his fault. He stepped into a situation with a loaded WR group and also suffered a gunshot wound to the chest late into training camp. With that said, the 49ers pass-catcher group is still likely to be loaded in 2025, even without Pearsall. Meanwhile, their secondary has arguably been the limiting factor of their defense.

Lassiter is a major riser, as his instincts have carried him to an excellent rookie season. I also love the fit. The 49ers and Texans run very similar schemes, and the things that make Lassiter good in Houston will translate here.

32) Carolina Panthers: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State (Previous: Xavier Legette)

Coleman has been very good in his role in Buffalo despite dealing with some injuries. His route running already looks very improved, but more importantly, he has been a ball winner at the catch point and a monster after the catch so far. The arrow is pointing way up.