The start of the 2024 NFL season is rapidly approaching, with the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs kicking off the newest campaign on Sept. 5. I’ve already posted more than three dozen futures Best Bets since the conclusion of the 2023 season in mid-February — subscribers can check them all out here.
Most of those wagers have come in traditional markets like Super Bowl winner, MVP, and player season props. Sportsbooks have also opened more exotic futures markets with the season coming into view, and I found a few long-shot props I’ve bet that are offering some value.
The odds used in this article are from when I initially placed these wagers in my Best Bets article. Be sure to check out all my 2024 NFL Futures articles and join our “NFL-Betting” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Be sure to shop around at multiple books for the best odds.
Regular Season Highest Scoring Team: Kansas City Chiefs (+1100, DraftKings).
The Chiefs led the league in scoring twice in Patrick Mahomes’ first six seasons as a starter, and they finished inside the top six in each of his first five seasons before last year’s 15th-place finish. Kansas City spent the off-season rectifying the situation by adding Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to a broken WR corps, which cost Mahomes a league-high 386 yards in drops. The Chiefs are a near-lock to be among the NFL’s most pass-heavy teams as only Tom Brady’s 2021 Buccaneers have finished ahead of Andy Reid’s offense in pass rate over expectation in the last three seasons.
Graham Barfield calculated the implied team totals from DraftKings lookahead lines for Weeks 1-17 for his Underdog Best Ball Draft Guide. The Chiefs checked in with the third-highest team total at 25.5 PPG, which was less than a point behind the 49ers (26.2) and Lions (25.7) at the top. Yet, DraftKings gave the Chiefs the seventh-shortest odds to lead the NFL in scoring at +1100 odds. The Chiefs’ defense needs to take at least a small step back for the offense to lead the NFL in scoring, which is realistic after losing L’Jarius Sneed from a unit that finished second in both total and scoring defense. (Posted Aug. 1)
Team to Score the Most Regular Season Points 2024-25: Los Angeles Rams (+2500, FanDuel).
The Rams offense hit their stride in the final eight games of last season, scoring 21+ points in every game in Week 12 through their Wild Card Round loss. They averaged an excellent 29.0 PPG in that stretch, which would’ve ranked just behind Dallas (29.9) and Miami (29.2) for the entire season. Los Angeles’ late-season surge was no fluke either as they did it against four teams that ranked in the top 11 in scoring defense (Bal, SF, NO, Cle). The Rams believe Cooper Kupp is completely healthy from his injury-riddled last two seasons, which means this offense could be even more dangerous.
Sean McVay engineered the highest-scoring offense in 2016 and the second-highest-scoring offense in 2017, and his units have ranked inside the top 11 in scoring in five of his seven seasons. Matthew Stafford could be forced to play in more shootouts if the defense takes a step back without future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald. It doesn’t hurt that the Rams play 12 of their 17 games indoors, which makes them even more enticing to bet at their +2500 odds. (Posted Aug. 1)
Regular Season Lowest Scoring Team: New York Giants (+1000, DraftKings).
New York ranks right up with New England for the worst collection of offensive talent entering the 2024 season. ESPN’s Mike Clay graded the Giants as easily the worst offensive and defensive unit in the entire league. The Giants ranked ahead of only the Patriots in our Offensive Line rankings, which came before Evan Neal’s lengthy absence during training camp. They have one of the league’s worst QB situations and potentially the worst collection of skill players around Daniel Jones and Drew Lock, depending on if Malik Nabers is an immediate stud at receiver. Nabers is the best hope for this offense not to be a cellar-dwelling unit in 2024, and Brian Daboll is also a sharp play-caller who can elevate an offense.
Graham Barfield calculated the implied team totals from DraftKings lookahead lines for Weeks 1-17 for his Underdog Best Ball Draft Guide. The Giants checked in with the fourth-lowest team total at 20.1 PPG but DraftKings gave them the seventh-shortest odds to finish last in scoring. The Giants have finished 30th (2023) or 31st (2020-21) in PPG in three of the last four seasons, and I’ll take 10/1 odds that this could be the year finally finish last in PPG. (Posted Aug. 1)
