The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL season props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Win Totals and it’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Best and Worst Record Odds for the top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles and a few additional wagers I considered.
The Baltimore Ravens finished with an NFL-best 13-4 record to cash +1400 odds, beating out the Dallas Cowboys (+1400), Detroit Lions (+2500), and 49ers (+1000) who each finished with 12 victories. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers bottomed out with a 2-15 mark at +2000 odds, and no other finished within a game of them for the NFL’s worst record. The Kansas City Chiefs (+700) are the favorites to lead the NFL in wins, followed by the 49ers (+900), Lions (+1000), Ravens (+1000), and Cincinnati Bengals at 10/1 odds or shorter. The New England Patriots (+500) are the favorites to finish with the NFL’s worst record, followed by the Denver Broncos (+650), Panthers (+800), Tennessee Titans (+1000), and New York Giants (+1000) at 10/1 odds or shorter.
I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Touchdown Odds, the 2024 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Most Rushing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Rushing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 36 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
Best and Worst Records from the Last 8 Seasons
| Year | Best Record | Odds (rank) | Worst Record | Odds (rank) |
| 2023 | Baltimore Ravens (13-4) | +1400 (t-6th) | Carolina Panthers (2-15) | +2000 (10th) |
| 2022 | Chiefs/Eagles | +900 (t-4th)/+1600 (t-10th) | Chicago Bears (3-14) | +650 (t-3rd) |
| 2021 | Buccaneers/Packers (13-4) | +450 (2nd)/+2200 (10th) | Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14) | +1000 (t-4th) |
| 2020 | Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) | +450 (1st) | Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) | +200 (1st) |
| 2019 | Baltimore Ravens (14-2) | +3300 (t-15th) | Cincinnati Bengals (2-14) | +500 (2nd) |
| 2018 | Rams/Saints (13-3) | +800 (t-4th)/+1200 (t-7th) | Arizona Cardinals (3-13) | +900 (3rd) |
| 2017 | Patriots/Steelers/Vikings/Eagles (13-3) | +275 (1st)/+600 (2nd)/+2500 (13th)/+2800 (t-14th) | Cleveland Browns (0-16) | +600 (3rd) |
| 2016 | New England Patriots (14-2) | +800 (t-3rd) | Cleveland Browns (1-15) | +350 (1st) |
Historical Hints
The top of the boards have dominated in both the best and worst record markets. Teams listed at +900 odds or shorter have finished with the best record or tied for the best record in six of the last eight seasons. If you’re going to look down the board for a longer shot to win this market, do it when the Ravens have longer odds. The 2023 Baltimore Ravens (+1400) and the 2019 Baltimore Ravens (+3300) both came from off the pack to finish with the best record. In 2022, the Philadelphia Eagles (+1600) shared the top record honors with the Kansas City Chiefs (+900). In 2017, the Minnesota Vikings (+2500) and Philadelphia Eagles (+2800) at longer odds finished in a four-way tie for the NFL’s best record at 13-3.
The worst record market has been even more chalky with teams listed at +1000 odds or shorter owning the dishonor of being the NFL’s worst team. The 2023 Carolina Panthers broke the run of the top favorites to finish with the worst record by doing it at +2000 odds last season. The top favorite in both markets has taken home the crown twice in the last eight years, including a 13-3 record for the 2017 New England Patriots (+275) and a 1-15 mark for the 2016 Cleveland Browns (+350). In 2020, the favorite to finish with the best record, the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), and the favorite to finish with the worst record, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+200), both came through as chalk.
2024 NFL Best and Worst Record Odds
The table is sorted by Longest Odds for Best Record. You should target the Longest Odds for either Best Record or Worst Record to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of July 10.
| Team | Longest Odds for Best Record | Longest Odds for Worst Record |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +700 (FD) | +35000 (FD) |
| San Francisco 49ers | +900 (FD) | +30000 (CZR/DK) |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 (FD) | +30000 (DK) |
| Detroit Lions | +1000 (FD) | +20000 (DK) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1000 (FD) | +20000 (DK) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1500 (DK) | +20000 (CZR) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +1600 (FD/ESPN/CZR) | +15000 (DK/CZR) |
| Buffalo Bills | +1700 (FD) | +15000 (DK/CZR) |
| Green Bay Packers | +1800 (FD) | +15000 (CZR) |
| New York Jets | +1800 (CZR) | +12000 (DK) |
| Houston Texans | +1900 (DK) | +125000 (CZR) |
| Miami Dolphins | +2100 (FD) | +12000 (DK) |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2200 (FD) | +15000 (ESPN) |
| Chicago Bears | +3000 (ESPN/CZR) | +7500 (DK) |
| Los Angeles Rams | +4000 (DK/CZR) | +6000 (CZR) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +4000 (CZR) | +5000 (DK) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +6000 (CZR) | +5000 (DK/CZR) |
| Cleveland Browns | +6000 (CZR) | +5000 (CZR/FD) |
| Indianapolis Colts | +7500 (CZR) | +4000 (CZR) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +8000 (DK) | +3000 (CZR/FD) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +10000 (DK) | +4000 (CZR) |
| Seattle Seahawks | +10000 (DK) | +2900 (FD) |
| New Orleans Saints | +10000 (CZR/ESPN/DK) | +2600 (FD) |
| Arizona Cardinals | +15000 (CZR) | +1700 (DK) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +15000 (CZR) | +1500 (FD) |
| Minnesota Vikings | +15000 (CZR/DK) | +1400 (FD) |
| Washington Commanders | +17000 (DK) | +1200 (FD) |
| New York Giants | +25000 (ESPN) | +1000 (DK) |
| Tennessee Titans | +30000 (DK) | +1000 (FD) |
| Carolina Panthers | +30000 (DK/CZR) | +800 (FD) |
| New England Patriots | +33000 (FD) | +500 (FD) |
| Denver Broncos | +50000 (FD) | +650 (CZR/FD) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
San Francisco 49ers best regular season record 2024-25 (+900, FanDuel). Placed July 11.
The best record market has been mostly dominated by teams near the top of the market in the last eight years. San Francisco is sitting at +475 to +600 odds at most national books and its +900 odds at FanDuel stand out as a value proposition. The 49ers have yet to finish with the NFL’s best record in Kyle Shanahan’s first seven seasons as a head coach, but they’ve finished with the NFC’s top record three times (2023, 2022, 2019) in the last five seasons. San Francisco ranks 18th in strength of schedule based on season win totals (per Sharp Football) and it has three of its toughest games at home against the Chiefs (W7), Cowboys (W8), and Lions (W17). San Francisco’s fate at the top of the NFL standings will be decided by its performance in a gauntlet from Weeks 12-17 (@GB, @Buf, Chi, LAR, @Mia, Det). DraftKings offers lines on every game outside of Week 18, and the 49ers are the only team favored in every game this summer. The 49ers own +600 odds to win the Super Bowl but +900 odds to finish with the NFL’s best record, which is a little out of whack.
Philadelphia Eagles most regular season wins (+1500, DraftKings). Placed July 11.
I gave out the Eagles to win Super Bowl LIX at +2200 odds in mid-February, and I also see some value in their odds to finish with the best record. DraftKings lists Philadelphia at +1500 odds to accomplish the feat while the other top national books have the Eagles listed at +1000 to +1100. The Eagles finished in a dead heat with the Chiefs for the NFL’s best record at 14-3 just two seasons ago, and they owned the NFL’s best record through the first 12 weeks of last season at 10-1. They were the Super Bowl favorites after beating the Bills in Week 12 before their season spiraled out of control with a 1-5 mark to end the year. Philadelphia significantly upgraded their coordinator spots by swapping out Brian Johnson, Sean Desai, and Matt Patricia for experienced play-callers Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. The Eagles re-tooled their broken secondary through the draft, and they surprised the league by signing Saquon Barkley to give Jalen Hurts another offensive weapon. Philadelphia has the ninth-easiest schedule based on season win totals (per Sharp Football), drawing the Jaguars, Packers, and Rams because of last year’s second-place finish instead of the Texans, Lions, and 49ers like the first-place Cowboys did.
New Orleans Saints worst regular season record 2024-25 (+2600, FanDuel). Placed July 11.
The Saints are a franchise with no real direction right now with a potential lame-duck head coach (Dennis Allen) and an underwhelming quarterback (Derek Carr) leading a team that’s headed south since Sean Payton and Drew Brees left town. The Saints seem destined to bottom out in the near future and it could happen as soon as this season if they get off to a slow start against a tough opening schedule. New Orleans needs to get a win over the Panthers in the season opener — they’re 4.5-point home favorites — or else they could face an 0-5 start with matchups looming against the Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, and Chiefs in Weeks 2-5. The Saints will be breaking in new OC Klint Kubiak after firing longtime coach Pete Carmichael, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they have early offensive struggles.
It also isn’t like they're teeming with offensive weapons behind Chris Olave, especially with Alvin Kamara declining in recent seasons. Carr has never been a talent elevator and the Saints have some major offensive line concerns, especially with Ryan Ramczyk’s availability up in the air. New Orleans’ defense is still talented and it would be the reason they’d avoid bottoming out in 2024, but there’s a chance a few early losses snowball for this franchise. They also had the fifth-fewest adjusted games lost on defense (per FTN) — and the seventh-fewest overall — but that could easily flip on a unit that’s relying on older players like Cameron Jordan (35), Demario Davis (35), and Tyrann Mathieu (32). It doesn’t hurt that Allen has a long history of losing. He never won more than four games in each of his three seasons with the Raiders, and he owns a career record of 24-46 (.343) in six seasons as a head coach.
Brolley’s Leans
Dallas Cowboys most regular season wins 2024-25 (+2200, FanDuel).
I’m invested in the Eagles to finish with the best record at +1500 odds or otherwise I’d be interested in Dallas to do it, and it’s strictly because of their inflated odds at +2200 — Dallas is sitting at +1600 to +1800 odds at the other national books. The Cowboys are the kings of the regular season, winning 12 games in three straight seasons before exiting prior to the conference championship game in each of those campaigns. Dallas has a great chance to be in the mix for the NFL’s best record for a fourth straight season, especially with three blue-chip players vying for new contracts in Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons.
Las Vegas Raiders worst regular season record 2024-25 (+1500, FanDuel).
Antonio Pierce galvanized the Raiders to a 5-4 finish last season, but they still have one of the lowest season win totals on the board. It’s largely because Las Vegas has one of the worst quarterback situations heading into the season with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell competing for its starting gig. The QB situation has the potential to sink their season, and it could be the reason they look to soft-tank late in the year if they have the chance to pick near the top of the 2025 Draft. The Raiders will face the ninth-toughest schedule based on season win totals (per Sharp Football), and their two matchups against the Broncos could prove pivotal in deciding which AFC West team is in contention to finish with the worst record.
