Five Stats to Know: 2024 Week 5

Week 5 is (mostly) in the books! In case you aren’t an insane person like me who likes to spend his Sunday night digging through usage data, I’ve curated five stats that will help you make better decisions in all fantasy football formats for the coming weeks.

I’ll also do my best to provide buy, sell, and waiver recommendations for managed leagues where applicable based on my findings. For a broader (if slightly less detailed) overview of usage across the league, I recommend this Twitter thread.

Stat #1: What Is Going On With Tank Dell?

Nico Collins left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury after scoring a 67-yard TD. This should have been the perfect opportunity for Tank Dell to “get right” after a slow start to the season. (Over his first three games, Dell had averaged just 33.0 receiving YPG and 7.5 FPG). Instead, he near-exactly replicated those averages, finishing the day with just 38 receiving yards and 7.3 fantasy points on four targets.

Dell’s involvement did not increase at all without Collins, receiving just a 12.1% target share after he left. That was well behind Stefon Diggs (24.2%), Dalton Schultz (18.2%), and even Dare Ogunbowale (15.2%). For perspective, Dell averaged 18.8 FPG and 77.3 receiving YPG on a team-high 23.3% target share in his eight full games as a rookie. Collins played in all of those games but one, in which Dell had a 35.9% target share and scored 18.9 fantasy points.

I’m left to conclude that this simply isn’t the same player we saw last year. As a rookie, Dell led all NFL players in Average Separation Score (0.257) and recorded a separation win on 27.8% of his routes (2nd-best). Entering Week 5, Dell’s ASS was down to 0.115 (30th), and his separation win rate nearly cut in half to 15.6% (44th). Those aren’t awful scores, but they hint toward Dell being diminished as a route runner right now.

And that makes some sense — he fractured his fibula last December, requiring surgery. He was the victim of a shooting in April. Fantasy Points injury expert Dr. Edwin Porras contends that most WRs fully return to their previous production the season after fibula surgery (121% of their baseline, on average), but there’s a mental component as well — especially for a route technician like Dell who wins with quickness and short-area burst. (Anecdotally — and I’m aware nobody cares — I once had a significantly less severe version of Dell’s injury and didn’t “trust” my ankle to plant properly for at least a year afterward. And I didn’t suffer a gunshot wound less than five months later.)

So what are we left to do with Dell as fantasy managers? His failure to shine with the target competition of Collins removed makes me think it’s more likely Dell just isn’t himself, whether physically or mentally. Assuming he gets back to his “normal” eventually, that makes him a clear buy — Dell is one of only 12 rookie WRs to average at least 15.0 FPG since 2010, and he’s on a list made up exclusively of long-term stars in the league.

Dell’s price in redraft and dynasty might fall further if he continues not to produce without Collins over the next couple of weeks, and Edwin has speculated it could take him a few more weeks to fully recover physically (he entered Week 5 still dealing with a ribs injury). But it could be sooner — the Bills are a big slot funnel and play lots of two-high looks, so this matchup always favored Stefon Diggs regardless. Week 5 was never going to be Dell’s week.

With that in mind, I’d rather buy now than attempt to precisely time the market. The moment Dell has a big game, the market will remember his rookie season again. You should already have no trouble buying him as a WR3 in redraft or for a pair of rookie 2nds in dynasty. Neither of those prices would be a catastrophic blow to a roster on the off-chance Dell is simply the next JuJu Smith-Schuster. That’s a calculated risk I’m willing to take.

Stat #2: The Backfields That Will Drive Us Insane, Week 5

Over the past two weeks, the Bears’ backfield has condensed to only include D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson, with Khalil Herbert receiving no touches over that span. That’s left us with:

• Swift: 68.5% carry share and 100% of backfield targets

• Johnson: 31.5% carry share and no targets

Frustratingly, inside-the-5 carries have been split 4-3 in favor of Swift. In Week 5, Swift was subbed out at the goal line after a couple of plays, leading to Johnson’s first of two TDs this game. Regardless of the goal-line split, this is easily top-12 RB usage for Swift — he’s averaged 20.0 weighted opportunities/game and a 17.3% target share over the past two weeks, both of which would easily rank 2nd-best at the position this year behind only Alvin Kamara.

I’d consider Swift’s role unstable, and the Bears will not face two of the NFL’s worst defenses every week as they have for the past two (both the Rams and Panthers ranked top-5 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs entering Week 5). That all averages out to roughly an RB2 rest-of-season for me. Buy for less than that, sell for more than that.

Stat #3: Deshaun Watson’s No Good, Very Bad Day

Amari Cooper has a 26.6% target share this year (10th-best), and has seen 8+ targets in every game. However, he’s only exceeded 10 fantasy points in 1 out of 5 games. Why could that be?

In reality, Cooper was only averaging 5.8 catchable targets per game entering Week 5. He’d had 467 air yards (5th-most), but just 215 of those air yards came on catchable targets (23rd). It was more of the same in this game.

Through five weeks, Deshaun Watson’s 28 sacks are more than any other QB has taken, and 44% more than the next-closest player. Even when he scrambles or gets the ball out on time, he’s averaging just 4.84 YPA, 2nd-worst to only Bryce Young. The best hope for every piece of this offense is that the Browns cut their losses and decide to play Jameis Winston, which HC Kevin Stefanski denied having any plans to do after the game.

Still, something is going to give here eventually. Winston should be rostered in deeper superflex leagues.

Stat #4: Backfields With Clear Short-Term Value

Leaving Week 5, three backfields appear to have newly minted short-term workhorses while one member recovers from injury. Ranked in order of how much I’d like to roster the player who remains:

1. Zack Moss was in his usual role before sustaining a high-ankle sprain in the 4th quarter, amassing 50% of the backfield’s carries, a 10.3% target share, and both touches inside the five-yard line. RB3 Trayveon Williams has just 62 rush attempts across 5 seasons with the team and zero snaps on offense this year. Chase Brown should project for a large majority of the work if Moss misses any time (according to Fantasy Points injury expert Dr. Edwin Porras, a high-ankle sprain carries an average of 2.7 games missed for an RB), and given how the Bengals’ coaches and GM talked about this backfield before the season, there’s at least a chance Brown’s role growth remains permanent.

2. After Aaron Jones left the game, Ty Chandler handled 82.3% of the backfield’s carries and received two of the backfield’s three targets. Myles Gaskin received just three total touches. I’m brought back to HC Kevin O’Connell’s implication back in February that he viewed Chandler as the team’s clear RB1 (pre-surprise Aaron Jones cut by the Packers). With Jones on the shelf, we have no reason to think he’s changed his mind since then.

Though the Vikings have a Week 6 bye, Edwin believes Jones will miss 2-3 weeks with his hip injury, giving Chandler a likely 1-2 game window as the clear lead back. I imagine he’d project as no worse than a high-end RB2 for those games.

3. In Devin Singletary’s absence today, Eric Gray out-touched Tyrone Tracy 6-2 on the Giants’ first drive. Then, Gray committed a fumble at the goal line, which the Seahawks promptly returned 102 yards for a TD. From that point on, Tracy received 90% of the backfield’s opportunities, finishing with a Sunday-high 129 rushing yards. Gray had just 2 touches after his fumble.

If Tracy didn’t have the Singletary role locked up entering this week, he certainly appears to now. Edwin believes Singletary could miss another game with his groin injury — so there’s no guarantee we see Tracy in this role again, but our confidence should be greater that it belongs to him in any game Singletary misses rest-of-season.

Stat #5: Stash These Young WRs In Deep Leagues

Though Alec Pierce led the Colts in receiving yards and caught the long TD, Adonai Mitchell out-targeted him 7 to 3 and was involved from the first offensive drive (after running just 10 routes in Week 4). Mitchell led all WRs in Average Separation Score entering the week and is a natural fit as a deep threat for Anthony Richardson when he returns from injury.

Ja’Lynn Polk had just one catch for 13 yards. However, he finished 2nd on the team with a 17.6% target share, nearly made an amazing catch with outstretched arms in the first half, and had a TD called back. Week 4 was the first time Polk ran above a 65% route share, and since then, he has led the team with 13 targets. Polk will not matter in fantasy unless Drake Maye arrives and significantly improves this passing game, but that’s worth getting ahead of in very deep leagues.

Finally, over his last three games, Michael Wilson averages 7.3 targets and 60 receiving YPG. His role did not shrink with Trey McBride back playing in Week 5, still commanding a 20% target share. Wilson could be a flex play or bye-week fill-in with usage like this, and like the previous two players I’ve highlighted, he’s available in nearly 90% of ESPN leagues.