Five Stats to Know: 2024 Week 11

Week 11 is (mostly) in the books! In case you aren’t an insane person like me who likes to spend his Sunday night digging through usage data, I’ve curated five stats that will help you make better decisions in all fantasy football formats for the coming weeks.

Based on my findings, I’ll also do my best to provide buy, sell, and waiver recommendations for managed leagues where applicable. For a broader (if slightly less detailed) overview of usage across the league, I recommend this Twitter thread.

Stat #1: Taysom Hill Defies Understanding

Taysom Hill is in one of the most unique roles we’ve ever seen in fantasy football. After his 43.5-fantasy point performance in Week 11, powered by 138 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs, and a career-high 10 targets, I feel it’s worth digging into exactly how this is happening — and to what extent any of this production is sustainable.

Chris Olave left early in Week 9 with a concussion, and must remain on injured reserve for at least two more games. With the Saints incredibly shorthanded at receiver, Hill has taken on a larger role in the passing game. He’s seen the receiving usage of a low-end TE1, his route share already having reached about that level in Week 10 (59.3%). Since that Week 9 game, he’s averaged:

• 5.6 targets/game (~TE9)

• 42.3 receiving YPG (~TE12)

• 8.9 FPG from receiving only (~TE17)

On top of this, Hill averages 1.3 carries per game inside the 10-yard line over this span. That would rank top-20 among RBs, above players like Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, and Bijan Robinson. By starting Hill, you’re essentially playing a TE and a goal-line RB in one lineup spot. He won’t score a rushing TD in every game (and he certainly won’t always average 19.7 YPC while housing TDs from 10, 33, and 75 yards out), but his ability to do so makes him both a desirable start in seasonal leagues and incredible leverage any week Alvin Kamara is popular in DFS.

In seven career games above a 40% route share, Hill averages 15.5 FPG (~TE3). Of course, that average is heavily skewed by rushing production like yesterday’s, but even before Week 11, he averaged 10.9 FPG (~TE8) in such games. There’s no more “risk” to starting Hill than any other non-elite TE, and as we saw Sunday, his weekly upside is unmatched. And if the Saints’ coaching staff keeps saying things like this, he may stick around as a viable play even after Chris Olave eventually returns.

Stat #2: The Backfields That Will Drive Us Insane, Week 11

The hopes of countless fantasy managers desperate to plug a hole in their FLEX spot rested on the words of Broncos HC Sean Payton and his promise to continue scaling up Audric Estime’s usage. Ask them how that worked out.

Estime saw just 31.5% of the backfield’s carries, with Javonte Williams leading the way with 47.4%, and Jaleel McLaughlin mixing in for 21.1%. In other words, this is now a disgusting three-way split devoid of any weekly predictability (and therefore, of any fantasy value).

My largest concern with Estime last week was his lack of involvement in the passing game. That wasn’t what bit him, though — he surprisingly saw 3 targets (to Williams’ 5). Instead, his problem was two-fold: he didn’t receive any touches on the first drive, which allowed the other RBs the first crack at proving to Payton they had the “hot hand.” And then, even after the first drive, Williams stayed hot, averaging 7.3 YPC in the first half.

I suppose we can’t be too surprised Payton chose to keep giving Williams work — it’s exactly what he did for Estime last week. I’d expect that whichever Broncos RB first breaks off a 10-yard run will lead the backfield in touches in every game going forward. Good luck with that.

Briefly checking in with the Bears, D’Andre Swift saw just a 58.3% carry share today, his lowest mark since Week 3. His 10.7 weighted opportunities were his lowest mark since Week 1 — a direct result of Roschon Johnson receiving 3 of 4 carries inside the 10-yard line.

However, Swift’s 39-yard touchdown run (on which he scored 60.4% of his fantasy points for the day) may have given you a final chance to sell before the wheels fall entirely off. Four of the Bears’ next five opponents rank as bottom-7 schedule-adjusted fantasy matchups for RBs. I would not expect top-24 RB production from Swift over the rest of the season, and would happily offload him for anything approaching that value.

Stat #3: Aaron Jones Is Over As A Bellcow

Our fears we laid out in the Everything Report have come to pass. With Green Bay last season, Aaron Jones played above a 60% snap share in just one regular season game. Entering this week, he’d broken that mark in six of seven healthy games with the Vikings — one of the year’s pleasant surprises, and one of many older RBs to experience a career renaissance this season. But after Jones’ second injury scare of the year in Week 10, it struck us as possible the team would scale back his involvement to keep him healthy for the playoffs. That’s exactly what we saw in Week 11.

In this game, Jones received just a 60% backfield carry share, his lowest in any healthy game since Week 2. His 3.1% target share also tied his season-low. With Cam Akers installed as a second RB, the team trusts more than Ty Chandler, and Jones is now no more than a game script and TD-dependent RB2. It’s a sad sight.

Stat #4: Jauan Jennings Is HIM

Jauan Jennings has posted target shares of 40.0%, 30.6%, and 39.3% in his three games this season without one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. He’s averaging 119.7 receiving YPG and 29.3 FPG across that sample. As a reminder, Aiyuk is out for the rest of the season, and last week, Kyle Shanahan himself told us Jennings would remain in Aiyuk’s old “X” role for the rest of the year.

Of course, George Kittle missed Week 11 as well, but he’d commanded just an 11.1% target share the week before — everyone will have their games in this offense, but I’m not convinced Kittle represents insurmountable (or even particularly direct) target competition to Jennings. Kittle and Christian McCaffrey seem to mostly have been competing for underneath targets.

Last week, I called Jennings a top-24 WR for the rest of the season. After all, he entered the weekend ranking top-6 in predictive (and skill-indicating) stats like YPRR and separation win rate. How do I view him now? I’ll spell out the implication I was too cautious to explicitly state in the tweet below.

At worst, I think you just got Brandon Aiyuk (the version who finished as the WR15 in 2023) off of waivers. I still expect there to be up and down games, but when the season is said and done, I will not be surprised if Jennings averages top-12 fantasy numbers the rest of the way.

Stat #5: Is Bijan Robinson Now In A Kyren Williams-Esque Role?

The Falcons got blown out in Week 11. We’ve sometimes seen Tyler Allgeier used more in positive game scripts, and we’ve also often seen him enter the game when the offense reaches the red zone. Neither opportunity presented itself in this game, as the team’s only (brief) red zone trip came on their first drive. These are important caveats to remember when interpreting what I’m about to say.

Aside from the final two drives (when Jase McClellan played alongside Michael Penix in garbage time), Bijan Robinson handled every backfield carry in this game. Allgeier recorded only a single target, and likely saw a season-low snap share (which I’ll confirm and edit in here once our snap charting is official on Monday).

Again, I want to be cautious. But aside from the context I explained above, and the slight possibility that Allgeier was more hurt than the team’s injury report let on entering the weekend, an explanation I find at least as convincing is that this coaching staff has simply decided to turn the backfield almost entirely over to Robinson, after Allgeier was stuffed three times in a row at the goal line in Week 10.

If that’s true, Robinson is going to challenge for overall RB1 status down the stretch. We’ll likely find out for sure next week, but you have permission to get excited at the possibility — especially given Falcons RBs face two top-6 schedule-adjusted matchups during the fantasy playoffs.