Five Stats to Know: 2024 Week 1

Week 1 is (mostly) in the books! In case you aren’t an insane person like me who likes to spend his Sunday night digging through usage data, I’ve curated five stats that will help you make better decisions in all fantasy football formats for the coming weeks.

I’ll also do my best to provide buy, sell, and waiver recommendations for managed leagues where applicable based on my findings. For a broader (if slightly less detailed) overview of usage across the league, I recommend this Twitter thread.

Stat #1: Rookie WRs Come Out Swinging

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Nearly every rookie WR drafted in the first two rounds had a promising showing on Sunday, immediately commanding serious volume. Take a look:

Especially given that rookie WRs are generally great bets to outperform ADP expectation, and that they often provide their best fantasy production in the second half of the season, I want to be very aggressive in “buying high” on any rookie that is already succeeding. The prime candidate for this is Keon Coleman, who led the Bills with a 21.7% target share despite no other Bills player exceeding a 13% target share. I’d be sending out offers for Coleman in every redraft league I can right now, given how productive we expect this offense to be.

Aside from Coleman, I am also buying high/making a priority waiver claim on Adonai Mitchell, whom Anthony Richardson missed for two separate would-be walk-in TDs. Richardson’s willingness to air it out is fantasy football gold, and it should be possible to convince Mitchell’s owner that his role may shrink when Josh Downs returns.

As for the trio of Harrison Jr., Odunze, and Polk, I’d advise patience. The Bills were a particularly tough matchup for outside WRs, Odunze may take time to win work against some of the best target competition in the league, and Polk did not play with Jacoby Brissett very much in the preseason. Better days should be ahead for all three.

Stat #2: The Backfields That Will Drive Us Insane

Entering the season, both Scott Barrett and I advised taking shots on the younger sides of two particular ambiguous backfields. In each case, the coaching staffs had indicated they would open the year as virtual 50/50 splits, which seemed like particularly bullish starting points for Tyjae Spears and Chase Brown. But it turns out we were lied to. The Titans’ split was as follows:

• Tony Pollard: 16 carries and 4 targets (14.6 weighted opportunities).

• Tyjae Spears: 4 carries and 4 targets (8.7 weighted opportunities).

Each Titans RB received a single red zone carry. Pollard got out to a hot start on the ground, scoring a 26-yard TD in the first quarter. That performance likely drove the usage you see above for the rest of the game. We’d be irresponsible not to project Pollard to open Week 2 with the upper hand over Spears, but this situation remains a volatile one, as Spears could just as easily rip a big play next week and win more work going forward.

As for the Bengals…

• Zack Moss: 9 carries, 4 targets (12.1 weighted opportunities)

• Chase Brown: 3 carries, 3 targets (6.8 weighted opportunities)

Notably, Moss received both carries inside the 10-yard line, and appears to have the clearly more valuable role. Neither Bengals RB was particularly impressive (nor was the Bengals’ offense in general), as Moss committed a lousy drop, and Brown showed poor vision by running directly into his blocker on at least one occasion.

I’d consider Week 1 a setback for both Spears and Brown, but either could win more work as the season goes on. Both are holds for now.

Stat #3: Elite TEs Were Incredibly Disappointing

For all the discourse about how deep the TE position was at the top this year, the “elites” left a lot to be desired with their Week 1 performances.

(For those keeping track at home, Sam LaPorta did not save us, producing just 8.5 fantasy points.)

In fairness, many of these players’ offenses did not operate particularly smoothly this week, and we have much larger production samples for most of them. Among the group, my highest level of concern is for Travis Kelce, whom I argued before the season was likely to see his involvement decrease due to his age and the Chiefs being incentivized to keep him fresh for a playoff run. His 73.3% route share from Thursday (almost exactly in line with his relatively disappointing 2023, and well below where he was the previous two years) backs that up.

Additionally, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy were as dynamic as advertised, further diminishing any reason the Chiefs would have to push Kelce before the very end of the season. He’s the only one of the “elite TE” group I’d consider selling low on.

Stat #4: Brock Bowers Might Already Be A Superstar

Raiders rookie TE Brock Bowers — whom Scott Barrett believed had the 2nd-best prospect profile of any TE, ever — led his team with a 25% target share. Since 2014, T.J. Hockenson (9) and Kyle Pitts (8) are the only other rookie TEs to have commanded 8+ targets in their first career game.

This is all just confirmation that Bowers is supremely talented, and has rocketed to the top of the Raiders’ pecking order than I thought possible. Based on the above, I would feel better about rostering Bowers than Travis Kelce in redraft, and he’s made a pretty compelling case for dynasty TE1. Would Kelce have alpha’d Davante Adams this week if they played on the same team?

Stat #5: Jayden Daniels Makes History

Jayden Daniels had a whopping 16 rush attempts in his debut. That is 60% more than any QB has ever had in their first career game. Anthony Richardson and Steve Young (10 apiece) are tied for 2nd place.

Widening to all games, Daniels’ 16 rush attempts are tied for the 28th-most by a QB in a single game. (Lamar Jackson takes up 15 of the top-41 spots by himself, which is an equally insane bonus stat for you).

Daniels’ 28.2 fantasy points rank him as the week’s QB3 through the Sunday night game. Given this level of rushing volume (which Scott Barrett emphatically laid out the case for in his draft guide, making Daniels his Exodia), I see no reason not to consider Daniels an easy top-6 QB rest-of-season.