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Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 9

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Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 9

Week 9 is here, and the fantasy playoffs are on the horizon. For redraft managers, that means a time to scramble and make last-ditch efforts - whether through trade or a key waiver wire add. But in dynasty, it is time to take a step back and make an assessment. Am I competing, or is it time to pivot to 2025?

In most dynasty seasons, this decision is relatively easy for most managers to make. A poor record or a "paper tiger" scenario — where you are projected to make the playoffs but lack overall scoring firepower — can lead a rational dynasty manager to prioritize the future rather than selling out to win now. However, this season has been marred by countless injuries, with several impactful players initially lost to injury now returning.

A team with Puka Nacua feels far more dangerous than it did two weeks ago. A team with De’Von Achane now possesses a league-winning edge at the running back position — something they certainly lacked when Tua Tagovailoa was missing time. Nico Collins, one of the great equalizers at the wide receiver position, is expected to return in Week 10 to an even larger role than he had before. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs is now done for the year.

Some seventh-seed teams could be in far better shape than certain third or fourth seeds. I don’t know what your league looks like — only you do. Deciding whether to push your chips in and make a few moves to position yourself for a playoff run or secure a top-two seed is a decision only you can make.

Teams that are not real contenders but choose to push the chips in any way and then walk away from this season empty-handed with no hardware or money to show for it, is a dynasty mistake we always want to avoid. For the managers who may be considering trading away their 2025 first-round or second-round pick or for fantasy managers on the opposite spectrum who are considering trying to buy picks. It is important to take an early assessment of the 2025 class.

Every week for the rest of the season, in addition to my Market Report, I want to include some information about the 2025 class. Many dynasty managers wait until the season ends to take a deep dive into what’s coming next in their rookie drafts. Without overwhelming you — or myself — f we gather some information each week, we’ll be better prepared for what’s ahead and in a stronger position to make tough decisions about our future draft picks.

This week, let’s take a bird’s-eye view of the elite prospects in this draft class from a superflex perspective.

2025 Elite Superflex Prospects & Birdseye View

I do not value this class as highly as 2024, but there are still a number of highly rated players who can make an instant impact in fantasy. Multiple players will become foundational pieces in dynasty. Position-wise, this year’s RB class is better than last year’s. WR is not as good (understandably), but there are still some very appealing players at the op. TE has considerable depth and a number of intriguing prospects. QB has two prospects that stand out to me, and I think will gain momentum as we get to rookie draft season.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State, 20 Years Old

Jeanty is an exceptional NFL prospect and one of the best fantasy prospects at the position in recent memory. He has the potential to become the rare running back selected first overall in superflex rookie drafts. The dynasty buzz around Jeanty falls somewhere between that of Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs at similar points in their college careers.

Worried that he’s not a Power 5 prospect? Don’t be. In Boise State’s narrow 37-34 loss to Oregon, Jeanty rushed for 192 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries, including a 70-yarder. He’s a home run threat with explosive speed and excellent vision in the open field. Jeanty has recorded a 50+ yard rush in every game but one this season.

While Boise State hasn’t leaned on him heavily as a receiver this year, Jeanty caught 39 passes for 552 yards and five touchdowns in 2023. Though he isn’t a massive back, he should weigh in at over 210 pounds.

There are no guarantees that a running back will be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, but Jeanty — much like Robinson and Gibbs — has a strong chance to become an exception. He has the potential to be a savior for your dynasty team at the running back position.

Travis Hunter, WR, Colorado, 21 Years Old

Hunter is the Shohei Ohtani of football — a high-level, standout wide receiver and a true shutdown cornerback. Multiple NFL and fantasy football analysts, including myself, project Hunter to be the first player selected in the draft. This past week, Hunter became the first player in Big 12 history to earn both the Offensive and Defensive Player of the Week awards in the same week. He leads the conference in receptions (60) and receiving touchdowns (8), and for good measure, he also leads in pass deflections — on the rare occasions he is targeted.

What could Hunter achieve if he fully devoted his attention to offense? It’s unheard of for a player to be this naturally gifted on both sides of the ball, and it stands to reason that with full preparation at one position, his level of play could be even higher.

Physically, he is solidly built at 6'0", 185 pounds, and is expected to run a 40-yard dash in the 4.4s. He’s a precise route runner and has drawn favorable comparisons to Garrett Wilson from respected NFL draft analysts like Daniel Jeremiah.

If you play fantasy football — and not the IDP kind — you desperately hope he focuses entirely on playing wide receiver in the NFL. Hunter has the potential to be an instant-impact playmaker at wideout, earning targets and delivering big plays from the start.

Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado, 22 Years Old

Hunter’s college QB is the favorite to be the first QB selected in the 2025 NFL Draft. Shedeur Sanders has been a polarizing prospect, but I believe that is simply due to being Deion’s son rather than his on-the-field play. Experience will not be an issue for Sanders. He started out playing for his father at Jackson State of the SWAC, starting right away as a freshman. Sanders dominated at the FCS level, passing for 70 TDs to only 14 interceptions.

He followed his father to Colorado, making a major leap in competition. The production continued with a 27-3 TD-to-interception ratio. Sanders set Colorado records in completion percentage and passing yardage, and finished second in school history in passing TDs in a season. This year has been even better. After Colorado struggled in the second half of the 2023 season, Sanders and Hunter have led the Buffaloes to a 6-2 start.

Sanders can make all the throws. He has a strong arm and is accurate (career completion percentage of 69.6%), with solid size. While not a burner, Sanders is athletic enough to extend plays, and boy does he extend them. The biggest knock on Sanders has been the amount of sacks he takes. Some of that is on Sanders, and a lot of that is on Colorado’s struggles on the offensive line last season. I believe that Sanders will gain momentum and dynasty enthusiasm as we get closer and closer to rookie draft season. There is a lot to like about his profile.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona, 21 Years Old

Mike Evans. AJ Green. Nico Collins. Pick your big, productive prototypical alpha-sized WR that you loved having in your fantasy lineup. That is what fantasy managers will be getting with McMillan. He is hardly a “lineup at X and run some cardio routes” type of player. McMillan is a target earner. He had the early career production that we love to see in fantasy football, playing right away at Arizona and catching 8 TDs as a freshman. McMillan set an Arizona record and led all true freshmen nationally in receiving yardage.

He then exploded as a sophomore. McMillan was a mega-producer, finishing with 90 catches for 1402 yards and 10 TDs. This season has been more of the same, despite relentless defensive attention with teammate Jacob Cowing now a San Francisco 49er.

McMillan has great body control and elite size. He will measure in somewhere around 6-4 and around 210-215 pounds. Despite his size, he has versatility, lining up all over the field for Arizona. An Evans-like 40 somewhere in the 4.5s is in the cards, but with his size and production, that is more than fine. He is a lock first-round pick, and could hear his name called within the top 10 picks.

Cam Ward, QB, Miami, 22 Years Old

Anthony Richardson. Jayden Daniels. Bo Nix. JJ McCarthy. Every year, we see QB risers emerge during draft season. NFL teams fall in love with a player, and he climbs up draft boards all the way into the early first round. This year’s QB riser is Cam Ward of Miami.

Ward is competing with Jeanty and Hunter for the Heisman Trophy. He’s leading Miami to an 8-0 record and dominating in all statistical categories along the way. Ward currently ranks second overall in passing yards (2746) and touchdowns (24) this season. In his two seasons at Washington State, he threw 48 touchdown passes and accumulated over 6,700 passing yards. Over the past three seasons, he’s also added 18 rushing touchdowns. Much like Daniels and Nix, Ward brings a tremendous amount of starting experience to the table as well. Before Washington State, Ward put up video game-like numbers at Incarnate Word.

Ward’s combination of arm strength, mobility, and accuracy as a passer makes him an enticing prospect for fantasy football. Others may not yet recognize his potential, but they will soon.

Multiple prospects could have been included, but these five stood out the most. Over the next few weeks, I will highlight other standout players and break down multiple positions.

Winning dynasty titles is great, but getting in a position to draft some Ashton Jeanty shares in your rookie drafts is also important. In all seriousness, weigh the decision to trade away rookie draft picks carefully. Be realistic about your roster, and when you decide to push your chips in and trade away draft picks, make sure you’re getting strong value in return.

There was a lot more happening in dynasty this week than preparing for rookie drafts that are still half a year away. Here are some players who gained and lost dynasty value.

Stock Up

Bo Nix, QB, Chicago, 22 Years Old

Nix has progressed from an early-season surprise to a legitimate fantasy streaming option at the quarterback position. He struggled at the start of the season, but his recent quality of play has been outstanding. In Denver’s Week 8 victory over Carolina, Nix had his best game as a pro, passing for three touchdowns and running in another. He joins Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Justin Herbert as the only rookies since 2000 to accomplish this feat. Nix is currently the QB9 overall on the season, and from Weeks 5 through 8, he ranked as QB3 overall.

The Broncos took a great deal of criticism for their selection of Nix at 12 overall in the NFL draft. There are a number of teams who probably wished they would have traded up and done the same. There are also a number of dynasty managers who wish they would have been more aggressive with Nix in their rookie drafts.

Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants, 24 Years Old

Tracy continues his ascent. Over the last four games, he ranks third in the NFL for rushing yards (347), tenth for yards after contact (158), and is averaging 16.5 PPG — 13th among all RBs. His explosive run rate of 8.2% during this span was on full display with a 45-yard run this past week against Pittsburgh. Tracy has surpassed 100 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games. He’s played 67% of snaps — not bad for a running back in his second full season at the position.

When considering that Tracy spent most of his college career as a WR, there’s a strong argument that he’s just getting started. While he’s an older RB at 24, that’s still far from 30. There are parallels to Aaron Jones — another former fifth-round NFL draft pick who has enjoyed multiple seasons of fantasy productivity. Day Three backs are often difficult to trust as dynasty assets, but Tracy could be the rare exception.

Ladd McConkey, WR, LA Chargers, 22 Years Old

McConkey finally delivered the kind of performance fantasy managers have been waiting for, with an eye-opening 29.1-point outburst in LA’s 26-8 victory. He caught all six of his targets, finishing with 118 receiving yards and two touchdowns — including a remarkable 60-yarder where he leaped to snag the ball on the sideline over a defender, cut back, and outran multiple Saints defenders to the end zone. There had been drum beats for weeks that a breakout game was coming, and this was it.

McConkey has a 22.2% target share — third among all rookies, trailing only Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers. His 27% first-read rate is second only to Nabers. While McConkey will need to overcome the constraints of the Greg Roman/Jim Harbaugh offense to fully break out in fantasy, there are encouraging signs that the coaching staff is embracing him as a go-to weapon. This past week, Harbaugh compared McConkey to Steve Smith—one of the toughest WRs in recent memory. For a coach like Harbaugh, that’s high praise. McConkey can potentially make a significant impact in fantasy leagues for the rest of the season.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts, 23 Years Old

Downs has so much positivity moving forward that an entire article could be devoted to him. In Sunday’s game, he out-targeted 9-6 and dominated him in production. Downs finished with 4 catches, a TD, and a season-high 109 receiving yards. Even more great news came for Downs’ fantasy managers after the game: Joe Flacco was named the new Colts starter.

In the three games that Flacco appeared in, Downs excelled. From Weeks 4-6, Downs had a 1st read rate of 32.1% (12th overall), a target share of 24.3% (16th) and an 85.5% slot rate. He scored 15.9 points or more in every game in that stretch. There is a chance that Downs will be a WR1 for the rest of the season. He is dramatically rising up the WR rankings in redraft, and has gained a significant amount of dynasty value — with much more to come.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns, 24 Years Old

I don’t want to get ahead of myself, and could have included Tillman on the watch list, but his recent production seems real and not a fluke. He has seamlessly stepped into the vacated Amari Cooper role and has now thrived with multiple QBs throwing him the ball. Over the past two games, he has averaged 23.5 PPG with a 1st read rate of 27.3 % and a target share of 22.6%.

Tillman has alpha size (6-3, 213) and 4.54 40 speed. Tillman’s 103 speed score is impressive for a WR, and it was one of the highest among drafted WRs in the 2023 class. With Jameis Winston now behind center, there is a lot of enthusiasm surrounding this offense, and Wilson is a big reason for that.

Stock Down

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis, 22 Years Old

No quarterback in dynasty leagues has lost more value this season than Anthony Richardson. His level of play has declined significantly since the start of his rookie season last year. He struggled mightily at times and was even outplayed by 39-year-old backup Joe Flacco. Richardson’s season hit a new low when the Indianapolis Colts announced that he would be benched in favor of Flacco moving forward.

Where Richardson goes from here is anyone’s guess. Many quarterbacks have received second and even third chances in their careers. If Flacco struggles, we could see Richardson again this season, though that doesn’t appear to be the plan. This is a disappointing outcome for a young quarterback who needed as many valuable reps as possible.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Baltimore, 28 Years Old

Diontae Johnson was long rumored to be traded before next week’s deadline, but the NFL revealed exactly what Johnson is worth on the open market — and it’s not much. The Ravens ultimately acquired Johnson from Carolina along with the Panthers' 2025 6th-round pick for Baltimore’s 5th. This shockingly low asking price not only signaled Johnson’s decreased value but indicated that Carolina simply wanted to get rid of him. Johnson now leaves a somewhat comfortable WR1 role (24.8% target share — 13th overall) with the Panthers for a crowded situation in Baltimore. Not only will he struggle for targets, but he’ll also see a reduced snap share compared to what he was used to in Carolina and previously in Pittsburgh.

Initial reports out of Baltimore indicate that Johnson will be the third wide receiver behind Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. With Mark Andrews turning around his season and producing lately as well, Johnson is unlikely to receive the same volume we’re used to seeing him with for the rest of the season. His short-term situation has worsened, and his long-term outlook is now even more uncertain. All in all, it was an awful week for dynasty managers rostering him.

Watch List

Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers, 22 Years Old
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers, 22 Years Old

Both Carolina rookie WRs will be thrust into the spotlight. With Legette, it was expected. The 1st-round pick was drafted to be in a prominent position in the passing game. With Coker, it has been nothing but positive surprises. The UDFA from Holy Cross now has two games with 68+ receiving yards over his last four games played. Expect to learn a lot more about these two over the next few weeks. We will quickly learn what they are capable of in larger roles.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars, 23 Years Old

Strange will see an increased opportunity alongside Evan Engram as Jacksonville will run more 12 personnel due to injuries at WR. A 2nd-round pick out of Penn State in 2023, Strange caught a career-high five passes in Week 8. He could be the eventual Engram replacement down the line.

Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, 22 Years Old

Washington will step right into the Christian Kirk role, and could maintain that role for the rest of the season. He caught three passes on four targets and finished with 46 receiving yards this past week. Washington was a well-regarded 6th-round pick value when Jacksonville selected him in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Theo Gremminger brings years of experience as both a fantasy football player and content creator to the Fantasy Points team. An accomplished high-stakes player, Theo finished second overall in the 2019 NFFC Silver Bullet and first overall in the 2019 NFFC Combined Standings. He has won multiple high-stakes leagues, including the FFPC Main Event, NFFC Classic, and NFFC Primetime.