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Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 6

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Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 6

Tank Bigsby. Tyrone Tracy.

If you have either of these players on your dynasty rosters right now, you understand the kind of utility and value they bring. Not only did they finish Week 5 as the RB1 and RB19 overall, but they provide you with immediate roster flexibility. If you want to start them this week, that’s now an option. If you want to trade either of them, their value has significantly increased compared to Week 1 of the fantasy football season.

What do these two players have in common? They are both handcuff running backs who saw increased usage and capitalized on it, delivering top-tier scoring production.

These players didn’t cost much in trade equity or draft capital.

They also offer a valuable lesson for us as dynasty managers: when you have the chance to acquire a handcuff running back—especially one with like-for-like usage—at a reasonable cost, you should do it every time.

In redraft leagues, handcuffing is a controversial topic. Some managers swear by it, while others see it as a low-upside strategy that limits their overall potential and lowers their chances of creating a dominant lineup. That’s a conversation for another time.

But for us dynasty managers, handcuffing running backs is the optimal strategy.

Of course, nothing in fantasy football is ever 100%. Certain offenses use a running back by committee, which can leave you in the difficult position of deciding which running back to start each week.

Bigsby and Tracy are just a few reminders of the value of handcuffing on dynasty rosters. With Tracy, it took an injury, but with Bigsby, it was simply an opportunity (and possibly a Travis Etienne shoulder injury—we’ll see). We also saw Zach Charbonnet post two consecutive RB1 weeks when Kenneth Walker was banged up. Are there any Rachaad White or Breece Hall managers out there who regret drafting Bucky Irving or Braelon Allen in their rookie drafts?

When it comes to handcuffs, there is often an initial dynasty price, then a pullback. Bigsby is a prime example. He had some helium during the 2023 preseason and was viewed as a potential threat to Etienne’s touches. Then the season started and it became apparent that Bigsby was too green to do much of anything during his rookie season.

Several situations right now could turn into the next Bigsby/Tracy-like scenario. Much like Bigsby last season, multiple players listed have already seen a reduction in their trade cost.

If you roster Kyren Williams: Trade for Blake Corum

Corum’s cost had gone down considerably. Once viewed as a direct threat to Williams, Corum is now a contingent upside value - but an important one to roster. Acquiring Corum is like re-investing in a Sean McVay RB1 role.

If you roster De’Von Achane: Trade for Jaylen Wright

Wright would have cost you significantly less about a week ago. He flashed in Week 5’s win over New England. Achane was concussed and is also banged up. Raheem Mostert played well, but has been dealing with injuries. Wright has a pathway to becoming the featured back by the time we are in the fantasy playoffs with some attrition.

If you roster James Conner: Trade for Trey Benson

Much like Corum, Benson’s price is far lower than it was during the Rookie Draft season and even at the start of the season. This was viewed as a split backfield, and it has been anything but, with James Conner dominating the usage and Emari Demercado working behind him. If Conner went down, I do not believe Demercado would see the lion's share of the work, but rather Benson working as the RB1.

If you roster James Cook: Trade for Ray Davis

This one is interesting. There are some who may view Ty Johnson as the defacto #2, but Johnson is a player that we have seen for several years without ever receiving a large workload. If Cook were to go down, I believe Davis would be the next man in. Unlike the previous trade targets, Davis is an easy player to acquire.

If you roster Aaron Jones: Trade for Ty Chandler

Jones is already dealing with a hip injury, so Chandler has already seen his trade value increase slightly. Even at a higher cost, Chandler is worth trading for. He has receiving upside, and has played well as the primary back late in the 2023 season. The Vikings are better offensively than we thought they would be this preseason.

If you roster Alvin Kamara: Trade for Kendre Miller

This one is speculative. Miller was buried this summer. Dennis Allen blasted him to the media, and Miller struggled to stay on the field. He also missed most of the 2023 season. Miller has now reached dirt-cheap levels of pricing. I asked for him as a throw-in with a trade I completed last week, and the opposing manager threw him in there like he was a 5th Round Rookie Pick. Kamara is playing lights-out football, but he is 29. Mental exercise: If Kamara went down in Week 10, who would his replacement be? How certain are you that it would be a 29-year-old Jamaal Williams with a healthy Miller available?

If you roster Josh Jacobs: Trade for Mar’Shawn Lloyd

Another discounted rookie. Lloyd is currently injured, but should be back later in the year. The Packers selected Lloyd in the third round of the NFL draft, and they have high hopes for him organizationally. Emanuel Wilson is also a dirt-cheap way to gain access to this backfield.

If you roster JK Dobbins: Trade for Kimani Vidal

A pure speculation play post-bye week. Gus Edwards has been terrible this season. Perhaps we see a little more Vidal? Dobbins is off to a nice start, but he is not exactly the modicum of health. Vidal is dirt cheap.

Making these moves could be the difference in winning and losing a few games this season. Backup your investment.

There was a lot more going on than just backup RBs putting up numbers. There were plenty of players who gained and lost dynasty value in Week 5.

Stock Up

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 29 Years Old

Lost in the shuffle of Thursday night's epic Kirk Cousins performance was the quality play of Baker Mayfield. Mayfield passed for three more touchdowns. He also added 42 yards rushing — an underrated aspect of his recent fantasy success. He looks comfortable and at ease in this offense, despite there being a new offensive coordinator in Liam Coen. Mayfield’s career arc has completely changed in Tampa Bay. He seems like a surefire bet to finish as a QB1 for the second consecutive season. After just sneaking inside the Top-12 last year, Mayfield currently sits close to the top as the QB three overall. He is a testament to having patience at the QB position and buying low when values become highly affordable in dynasty.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, 25 Years Old

I mentioned Higgins in my preseason buy low trade targets for rebuilding teams article. Never in my wildest imagination did I anticipate Higgins having this sort of target volume three games in. Since returning from an injury that cost him the first two weeks of the season, Higgins has been targeted 30 times. This is certainly not an insignificant number for him. Higgins has never been targeted more than 114 times in any season of his career.

He scored 29.3 PPR points- the highest weekly point total of his career. Higgins did so with Ja’Marr Chase dropping an insane 41.3-point outburst.

The best part about rostering Higgins is his upcoming 2025 offseason situation. He is set to test the waters in free agency. I would guess that about half the teams in the NFL will attempt to sign him - maybe more. We have seen lesser pedigreed WRs get massive contracts. With Higgins, multiple teams will view him as an instant alpha WR1 in their offense. Higgins is a rare trade target that can be added for contending and rebuilding teams in dynasty. If anyone in your league believes they are selling high after this week, send them an offer.

Wan’dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants, 23 Years Old

We are five weeks into the season, and Wan’dale Robinson is currently averaging 13.8 points per game. This is the Year 3 breakout that no one wants to talk about. It’s simply assumed that Robinson will fade away, but it’s hard to envision him not remaining a significant piece of this offense.

Robinson has done an excellent job playing Robin to Malik Nabers' Batman. He is averaging a 25.7% target share with a 30% Targets Per Route Run rate. He is fourth overall in the league in targets with 47. Daniel Jones is knocking on the door of QB1 territory, and the offensive line play has improved dramatically.

Robinson is also a player with pedigree. During his final season at Kentucky, he caught over 100 passes in the SEC, and the Giants selected him in the early second round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

He can give you high-end WR3 numbers at a WR4 price tag if you need a high-floor, weekly flex play.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers, 23 Years Old

Kraft has done it again. In Week 4, Kraft finished as the TE1 overall for the week with 17.3 points. Week 5 was even better. Kraft caught two TD passes and finished with a career-high 24.8 PPG. He now leads all second-year TEs in scoring, outpacing Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid. A remarkable start for a player who dealt with injuries this offseason.

When you dive deeper into his splits alongside Jordan Love, the numbers get even better. In Weeks 1,4, and 5 — games in which Love started this season — Kraft is the #1 scorer at the TE position with 16.3 PPG. Kraft is a locked in TE1 for the rest of the season. Besides Brock Bowers, there is no TE who has gained as much dynasty value so far as Kraft.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts, 23 Years Old

Since returning from injury, Downs has been playing outstanding football. He has averaged 36% targets per route run, 27.4 target share, and an 89% slot rate. Downs is averaging 14.4 PPG—the highest of all Indianapolis pass catchers. Those numbers are extremely good and show just how valuable he has been to the Colts' offense.

There is a disconnect between Downs’ dynasty value and his actual role and production. It is absolutely true that he is in a better position to succeed alongside Joe Flacco than Anthony Richardson, but Richardson’s return to the lineup would not eliminate Downs’ usage. It would drop him from a WR2 to a WR3.

Last season, Downs set a record for the most receptions for a Rookie in Indianapolis Colts history with 68. However, there seems to be a disconnect between Downs’ current value/long-term role and his dynasty ranking. He is only WR44 on KeepTradeCut right now, a number that is sure to grow as the season moves along.

Consider sending a trade offer

Stock Down

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 29 Years Old

Two things can be true. Patrick Mahomes is undeniably one of the greatest players to ever play the quarterback position in NFL history. Mahomes also has failed to deliver at his ADP for the second consecutive season. After finishing as the QB10 overall in 2023, the Chiefs reloaded at the wide receiver position by drafting Xavier Worthy and signing Hollywood Brown. These two players, combined with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, were supposed to give us a Mahomes smash season.

The Chiefs are currently 5-0, and Mahomes looks poised to potentially become the first quarterback ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls. Yet, he also looks like a bust at his ADP. He has not finished as a Top 5 scorer at the position since Week 7 of last year.

The reality is that Mahomes may be an overrated asset in dynasty. This is difficult for me to write, and likely difficult for many of you to read. Still, the fact remains that multiple quarterbacks are scoring more fantasy points. Longevity is on Mahomes' side — he will start until he retires. But for those actively competing for a championship this year, there are QBs who might put you in a better position than Mahomes.

Please don’t roast me if he throws for 5 TDs right after the bye week.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars, 25 Years Old

Etienne continues to concede touches — and dynasty value — to Tank Bigsby. Bigsby had his best performance as a pro (25.9 points), coinciding with Jacksonville's best offensive showing and scoring output of the season. Over the past 14 games, Bigsby has posted 3 of the 4 highest rushing yard totals for the team. He is simply a more effective runner in this offense than Etienne.

Last season, Etienne was inefficient with his yards per carry (3.8), but compensated with a high touchdown total (12) and a breakthrough as a receiver (58 receptions). Bigsby has led the Jaguars in rushing yardage three times and is averaging an impressive 8 yards per carry. This isn’t a small scat back breaking off big gains—Bigsby weighs 213 pounds.

There’s a real possibility that Etienne could find himself in the 40 of a 60/40 split this season. While Etienne dominates Bigsby as a receiver (16 to 1 in receptions), his 13.4% target share, which is 6th overall among RBs, may not be stable. Brian Thomas Jr.’s role continues to grow, and target-hog TE Evan Engram will return from injury. Still, Etienne managers can hold onto his value as a receiver. However, the dream of a second consecutive RB1 finish is over, and he’s facing a significant threat from Bigsby.

Dynasty Watch List

Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Houston Texans, 24 Years Old

Hutchinson has an opportunity to instantly contribute in Houston. Nico Collins is now on the IR, and his return date is up in the air. The Texans liked Hutchinson enough to move on from Noah Brown - a highly effective player for them last season in multiple games.

Spencer Rattler, QB, New Orleans Saints, 24 Years Old

Rattler will make his first NFL start for an injured Derek Carr this week. The Saints selected him in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Rattler had an early breakout as a freshman at Oklahoma and looked like he was headed for NFL stardom before being usurped by Caleb Williams. He regrouped and played well at South Carolina. Rattler was the best QB performer at the Senior Bowl.

Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers, 22 Years Old

Keep an eye on Xavier Legette’s injury status. If Legette misses some time, expect for Coker to be on the field for three WR sets this week. Coker played well, finishing with 4 catches for 68 yards in Week 5. A small school player out of Holy Cross, Coker was an NFL combine participant. He went undrafted but made the team and now has a potential opportunity.

Theo Gremminger brings years of experience as both a fantasy football player and content creator to the Fantasy Points team. An accomplished high-stakes player, Theo finished second overall in the 2019 NFFC Silver Bullet and first overall in the 2019 NFFC Combined Standings. He has won multiple high-stakes leagues, including the FFPC Main Event, NFFC Classic, and NFFC Primetime.