Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 2

As dynasty players, we don’t want to overreact to Week 1, but we certainly don’t want to underreact either.

We have actual football being played, and as such, we have a new lens through which to view our dynasty rosters.

Who was helped or hurt by the Week 1 action from a dynasty fantasy football perspective?

Stock Up

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Say it loud and with emphasis: Rice is the primary target in the Kansas City offense. The Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era has featured fantasy smash seasons from Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and it seems like another could be on the way with Rice. The second-year wideout dominated usage, finishing with an alpha WR1-like 33% target share. He was utilized early and often, finishing with 7 catches for 103 yards. Rice fits seamlessly alongside Xavier Worthy (2 TDs) and will mesh well with Hollywood Brown. The Chiefs are moving and utilizing him all around, with 56.5% of his routes run out of the slot. If this usage sustains, he could finish as a WR1.

Rice may be the ultimate buy-high dynasty trade target this week. His dynasty price tag in FFPC startups this past month was only WR26, which is a laughable valuation for a second-year player in such a high-quality offense. I would trade Puka Nacua straight up to acquire him right now — and in many leagues, you could get Rice plus another asset.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

I don’t care that Worthy was targeted only 3 times — I probably should, but I really don’t. Not with Worthy. We saw everything we wanted to see out of him — besides the usage. In fact, he may have cost himself an extra target because of how explosive and easy he made it look on his 21-yard rushing score. He then added a back-breaking 35-yard TD grab to put the Chiefs up by 10, answering Baltimore’s previous TD drive. Worthy showed us exactly what we wanted: the fastest player in the NFL, attached to one of the best QBs to ever play the game. Worthy will see many of the manufactured looks Andy Reid dialed up for Tyreek Hill in years past. Dynasty managers should be very, very excited.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

There were reports from Baltimore this summer about Likely’s increased involvement this season, along with speculation about a shift to increased 12 personnel. Both reports proved true in Thursday night’s opener, to say the least. Likely sliced through the Kansas City defense. He had flashed during his first two seasons in the league, but almost exclusively as a contingent upside fill-in for Mark Andrews.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers

I drafted War Daddy Reed in a dynasty startup this summer as the 32nd WR selected. The disconnect between the dynasty and the redraft marketplace with Reed this offseason was fascinating. Reed produced in a major way last season, finishing tied for second among all rookies with 10 TDs. He was a major part of Green Bay’s offense, especially during the second half of the season. From Week 10 on, Reed averaged 17.4 PPR PPG — 10th overall among all WRs. Dating back to last season, Reed has now scored 15 PPR points or more in 8 of his last 9 games. It’s time to start viewing Reed for what he is — a foundational WR on your dynasty roster.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas showed us everything you’d want to see from a young alpha wide receiver. His final stat line of four catches, 47 yards, and a touchdown does not tell the entire story. This was a game where the Jaguars leaned on two running backs. Brighter days are ahead for the explosive rookie. He led Jacksonville with a 21.8% target share — the best on the team. The big games are coming. BTJ could be a second-half-of-the-season league winner. If your dynasty rosters don’t include some BTJ, kick the tires on some trades. This is not a player you want to have zero exposure to.

Ladd McConkey, WR, LA Chargers

No team had more vacated targets heading into the 2024 season than the LA Chargers. McConkey had a lot of pressure to deliver early in his career to justify his aggressive dynasty price in rookie drafts. Through one game, the results are very promising. McConkey led LA in targets and catches, and scored a TD. He had a very impressive .33 TPRR and 26.9% target share. McConkey looks poised for a very strong rookie season and could gain a considerable amount of dynasty value.

Stock Down

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Here are a few positives to add context to Andrews’ dud performance against Kansas City: He outsnapped and ran more routes than Likely. The Chiefs sometimes appeared to double-team Andrews and were locked in on taking him away — Steve Spagnuolo owns Andrews. This is not the first low fantasy output against Kansas City.

Now, a few negatives: Andrews turned 29 years old on September 6. TEs age in Dynasty differently than RBs and WRs, but they still age — Father Time is undefeated. Andrews also had tightrope surgery this past offseason, and there is a chance he will be slow out of the gate. (Tony Pollard was a notable ADP bust in 2023, coming off the same procedure.)

Don’t trade away Andrews because of a bad performance. We are not in the business of selling low. But if Andrews has similar production to a teammate who is five years younger, his dynasty stock will take a hit. He is still ahead of Likely in the pecking order, but this is a situation we need to monitor.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Will Etienne be a useful piece for your dynasty team this season? Absolutely. Will he deliver a similar overall finish as he did in 2023? If last week’s game was any indication of the season ahead, then probably not. Tank Bigsby played only 17 snaps but had 12 carries. It seems like the ADP marketplace was a year ahead on Bigsby, and he looks like a player who could have a year-two breakout. Stylistically, he complements Etienne very well.

Etienne still has the receiving work on lockdown and will see his fair share of high-value touches, but this could rapidly turn into a 60-40 split. Last season, Etienne averaged only 3.8 yards per carry, and his output this past week was even lower at 3.7. Bigsby, on the other hand, rushed for 6.1 yards per carry.

Here is a mental test: Would you rather roster Etienne or Ken Walker (assuming the abdominal injury is a non-issue)? That trade was available about two weeks ago, and it probably is not available now — but it is worth exploring.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

Pittman Jr. is in an odd place on the dynasty WR totem pole. He is a target magnet with multiple seasons of fantasy football production. In 2023, he finished with career highs of 109 catches and 1,152 yards. His target share has been steady year after year — 30.5% in 2023, 25.6% in 2022, and 25.7% in 2021.

But what is that worth in an Anthony Richardson offense? This past week, the Colts scored 27 points, and Pittman Jr. did indeed post another robust target share — 42%, in fact. But the Colts only had 19 pass attempts in the entire game.

Mega athletes Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce will also be joined by Josh Downs soon. This WR room is as crowded and athletic as it has ever been since Pittman Jr. arrived in Indianapolis. If you have someone in your league that wants to pay you for 2023 numbers, consider moving him. He is a very good football player but a capped upside player in this offense.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Slow down, don’t get upset — London is still a very talented player. There are plenty of excuses for the Week One dud: Kirk Cousins looked awful and immobile, and Joey Porter Jr. is quickly becoming one of the league’s best shutdown corners. I get it.

But the reality is that London is probably the third most valuable Falcon in dynasty. Bijan Robinson was a given, but Kyle Pitts’ combination of role, talent, and positional scarcity is hard to ignore. Don’t go trading away London — he will have a long and successful NFL career. But we may need to temper our 2024 expectations with Cousins behind center. There is a lifeline named Michael Penix Jr., but this is still an early frustrating outcome for London managers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

This one hurts to write about. JSN had so much positive buzz this offseason, and there was so much hope for a year-two breakout. This was a Kenneth Walker smash game, and we can chalk a lot of this up to game script (DK Metcalf was also disappointing), but JSN was still out-targeted by Tyler Lockett 7-2. We must move JSN to our benches and see it before trusting him again in this offense.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

I am not going there. Despite Scott Barrett’s tweet about MHJ’s negative A.S.S. score, let's stay calm for another game. It's about as tilting a performance as we have seen out of a player with this much hype. Please find the end zone this week, Marv, for our collective mental health.

Dynasty Waiver Wire Additions

Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants

Johnson is available in a number of shallow dynasty formats, like the FFPC. He is an elite athlete who sees full-time usage, albeit in a bad offense. Athleticism correlates more at TE than at any other position. Johnson has an early shot at earning this job long-term and should be rostered in dynasty.

Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos

This is an odd name to recommend in dynasty because of his extreme outlier age. Vele is a 26-year-old rookie — not kidding. But despite his lack of youth, Vele has a locked-in role and already has production to back it up. There was some buzz this offseason with Vele among the Denver beat reporters, but most drafters dismissed it and turned their attention to players like Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin. The reports were more than true, with Vele debuting with an 8-catch performance, accompanied by a .25 TPRR and 19.5% target share. Many of your league mates will dismiss Vele, but he is cheap and could be in for a larger-than-anticipated role.

Jeff Wilson, RB, Miami Dolphins

Every Dolphin was rostered heading into Week 1, but lost in your league’s Waiver Wire shuffle is Wilson. He may be available for a shootout-type environment short week game against Buffalo. Raheem Mostert is out with a chest injury, and his Week 3 availability is up in the air. Jaylen Wright will also mix in, but as of right now, Wilson is ahead. This could be a one-week type opportunity, but one week in the Miami offense is worth a lot.

Tyler Johnson/Jordan Whittington, WR, LA Rams

Demarcus Robinson will step into the Puka Nacua role, but he is hardly a target hog and there is now considerably more value in the Rams WR3. Whittington was a star in the preseason, and the 6th-round draft pick could end up being self-scouted into a more prominent role. Whittington has YAC ability and may have the most fantasy upside of any non-Cooper Kupp Rams WR — Robinson included. It just comes down to the comfort level the coaching staff has with him.

Johnson played very well in Week 1, finishing with 5 catches for 79 yards, including a 63-yard reception. The 26-year-old Johnson was a star at the University of Minnesota, finishing his career with over 3,300 receiving yards and 33 TD grabs — but has been a journeyman as a pro.

Both players are worth taking shots on, and the situation's ambiguity, plus Robinson’s availability in many leagues, creates some lower FAAB bid opportunities. The Sean McVay offense continually churns fantasy production, and we want as much exposure as possible, even if it is speculative.

Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Does the QB make the TE in Dak Prescott-led offenses? We will soon find out. Jake Ferguson could miss time with a knee injury. Enter Schoonmaker. The 2023 2nd-round draft pick has elite athletic measurables (4.63 40, 110 Speed Score) and no fantasy production to speak of. Ferguson and Dalton Schultz are on a combined run of four straight TE1 seasons in Dallas offenses. The last TE to fail to finish as a TE1 in a Prescott-led offense was Jason Witten in 2019 — and he was about 55 years old at the time. Schoonmaker is a speculative add, but an intriguing one.