Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 11

There is a lot of information out there for dynasty managers on how to rebuild. Move your older assets for picks or younger players. If your league is deep, consider trading a strong commodity for several players — or players and picks — with room to grow, a.k.a. “Tiering Down.” Roster handcuff running backs so that if the starter ahead of them is lost to injury, you have an instant trade asset to move for — yes, you guessed it — more draft picks.

There is also plenty of advice for dynasty managers making a final push to go for the money and win their league title. Good and bad trading information exists across X and various fantasy football websites (stick with the one you are on right now).

But hardly any information is out there about dealing with an elite asset that suddenly has immense week-to-week downside risk. What do we do with players in offenses that are falling apart? A better way to put this is: what on earth should contending teams do with CeeDee Lamb this week, with another start from Cooper Rush on tap?

Lamb is a blue-chip asset. He’s about as elite as you’ll find in Dynasty, but he’s also playing on an offense that’s struggling so severely that Dallas might not win another game this season.

The fact that Lamb scored 8.1 PPR points in Week 10 is a minor miracle for managers rostering him. The Cowboys passed for only 66 yards—not in a quarter or half, but in the entire game. Philadelphia obliterated them. Dak Prescott is out for the year, and Rush was utterly ineffective in his first game as a starter. Trey Lance saw some action but didn’t do enough to unseat Rush, who will start again in Week 11. If you're a Cowboys fan, you’re now in the unfamiliar position of having to watch bad football on Sundays.

But what about CeeDee Lamb managers in Dynasty? Two months ago, the idea of trading away Lamb was laughable. But now it’s a real possibility, especially if you’re going for the title. Balancing the short term while also preparing for the long term—well, that’s Dynasty in a nutshell.

The best option for your long-term dynasty health is to keep Lamb. He is in his peak years of fantasy production, and barring an injury, you will be glad you kept him late next summer headed into the 2025 season. But if you decide to make a - gasp - CeeDee Lamb trade, here are a few options.

Potential CeeDee Lamb Pivot Trades for Contenders

The slight tier down: Trade Lamb for Nico Collins +

Old money for new money. This trade would have seemed laughable 18 months ago, but Collins has been a transcendent value in dynasty and redraft. Scoring-wise, as long as Collins is back this week, he will lap Lamb for the rest of the season. Collins is averaging 21 PPG to Lamb’s 17.5 already. Age-wise, there is no tradeoff, as both players are 25. An offer of Lamb for Collins and a 2025 2nd will make sense for many Collins managers and can provide the scoring punch needed for a title run. Some may heat check counter a straight-up Collins for Lamb offer. That is a loss, but not as big of a haircut as it is on paper. Collins has QB stability, something that is suddenly a big question.

The gamble Tier Down: Trade Lamb for George Pickens and a 2025 1st

“Theo, you are crazy. I can’t trade Lamb for Pickens; that makes no sense.” True, this one is not for the faint of heart — but it is the classic “Tier Down” pivot. Pickens oozes potential and has been metrics darling this season. He has a 25.9% target share, a 44.6% air yards share (5th overall), and a 34.4% 1st read rate - alpha WR1 type analytics. Those metrics are starting to correlate with his scoring numbers. Since Russel Wilson took over as starter, Pickens has two top 5 WR finishes.

The positional Pivot: Trade Lamb for De’Von Achane +

Another move that will be looked down upon by the dynasty purists. Trading a potential five-year asset for a RB. The position of safety for the position of “could be out of the league in four seasons.” Much like the NFL, dynasty managers have, by and large, devalued the position. Just take a look at any dynasty startup from last offseason. Use this to your advantage with a potential pivot. Achane has RB1 overall potential for the rest of the season and will continue his momentum into the first round of 2025 redraft leagues. The “+” in this sort of a trade could be a functional WR (think Darnell Mooney types).

The Tier Up Overpay Pivot: Trade Lamb + for Justin Jefferson

Be prepared to take a haircut on this one. You have a long-term elite asset in Lamb, and now have to trade him at 80 cents on the dollar in addition to valuable rookie picks or another starting player to acquire an elite WR in Jefferson. This is a long shot, but it is worth an offer. Does Lamb and Jordan Addison get the conversation started? How about Lamb and a rookie like Ladd McConkey? It is rare that the Jefferson manager ever gets trade offers that include a fellow blue blood. This trade may exist in only some leagues right now, but it is worth sending an offer out. If you get a counter, there is hope.

What you choose to do with your shares of CeeDee Lamb is a personal choice. But if you do make a decision, be calculated about it.

Next week, I will lay out some trade targets and some players to sell as we make a final push towards the fantasy playoffs. Here are a few deals that I have been making lately. Deals like this are out there in leagues right now.

Trades I have made this week

FFPC Triflex (Superflex, WR Heavy) $750 Entry: Sent Stefon Diggs and Dalton Schultz. Received Darnell Mooney, Jauan Jennings, and Dallas Goedert

My team is in contention for the league title (currently the #2 seed). The manager who accepted the offer is in a major rebuild, with several players, including Chris Olave, on IR. I acquired two “buy-high” WRs that I rank higher than most in my dynasty rankings—Mooney and Jennings. Goedert was an upgrade over Schultz and adds valuable TE depth (I also have Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft on this team) in the TE premium FFPC scoring setting. Jennings and Mooney give me two more WRs I can use on a weekly basis.

My team’s only weakness is RB firepower, but I’m hopeful I can overcome that with a WR room headlined by Ja'Marr Chase. This deal strengthens my team overall. From a Dynasty Theory perspective, I was able to move an aging asset who is out for the season.

FFPC Single QB $250 Entry: Sent a 2025 3rd. Received Jauan Jennings

This team is a balanced powerhouse with firepower at RB (Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker, Tyrone Tracy), WR (Malik Nabers, DK Metcalf, Jayden Reed), and TE (Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta), all quarterbacked by the red-hot Joe Burrow. The only issue is a need for more usable depth at WR. Two players I had planned to rely on in the preseason — Jaylen Waddle and Jordan Addison — have been disappointing, inconsistent, or both. Adding Jennings gives me another flex option and a valuable depth piece. This should be a late 3rd-round pick, one I’d likely be able to recoup during dynasty rookie draft season this spring.

FFPC Single QB $250 Entry: Sent a 2025 2nd, Received Darnell Mooney

This team is incredibly top-heavy and, unlike the others, is a 5th seed—teetering on the brink of the playoffs. I have elite firepower in Bijan Robinson, AJ Brown, and Jefferson, but lack high-quality flex options. Mooney should immediately remedy that as a set-it-and-forget-it, plug-and-play weekly flex. This trade demonstrates just how valuable 2nd-round picks can be as trade assets and also reflects the market’s lack of long-term enthusiasm for Mooney, despite his incredible season.

There are trades to be made this week. Some dynasty leagues have their trade deadlines coming up at the end of Week 12 or Week 13. Now is the time to be active

Stock Up

Puka Nacua, WR, LA Rams, 23 Years Old

Nacua’s rookie year was legendary and put him on the map to stardom. But his return from injury has been not only impressive, but reassuring to dynasty managers worried that Nacua’s 2023 success was unsustainable. Playing alongside Cooper Kupp, Nacua finished with 9 catches for 98 yards on 14 targets. If we exclude Week 9 (Nacua was ejected), in two full games since returning, he has averaged 18.5 PPG, a 28.8% target share, and an insane 41.9% 1st read rate. Nacua is a locked-in WR1 in dynasty, and one of the game’s best target earners.

Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos, 21 Years Old

We love it when players who have made our watch list join the ranks of the Dynasty Risers. This ranking may seem premature, but Estime seems destined to join Tyrone Tracy, Braelon Allen, Ray Davis and Bucky Irving as day three NFL draft picks who have all gained dynasty value of varying levels. Estime led Denver RBs in snaps and dominated the rush attempts with 14 to Javonte Williams’ 1. This seems like a changing of the guard in Denver, with the disappointing Williams making way for the promising rookie.

Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals, 22 Years Old

We could be witnessing a mid-season breakout from Trey Benson. The explosive rookie boasts one of the highest speed scores among all RBs in football, with a 116.3 (97th percentile) and third-round draft capital. For most of the first half of the season, he was an afterthought, while veteran James Conner dominated the fantasy production. Conner is currently an RB1, but we may be seeing a sneak preview of a 2025 changing of the guard, with Benson working in consistently. He had a season-high 12 touches on Sunday and has finished as a low-end RB2 for two consecutive weeks. Benson has dual-threat ability and the talent to gain considerable value this offseason.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts, 22 Years Old

Rookie breakouts continue to be a theme this week. Mitchell stepped into the Michael Pittman Jr. role with his highest snap share of the season —-a full-time 93%. Mitchell led Indianapolis with 6 catches and finished with 71 receiving yards. Anthony Richardson's return could be problematic for the passing volume, but Mitchell feels like a player with an expanding role. The 2024 2nd-round pick is an elite athlete with a 4.34 40 time and alpha size. He has the separation skills and deep ball ability to survive in a low-volume offense.

Stock Down

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins, 30 Years Old

Tua Tagovailoa’s return was expected to propel Hill back to his usual dominant scoring self. A 9-target Week 8 gave hope to many — including myself — but since then, his target volume has dropped significantly. Hill has just 9 targets and 7 catches combined over his past two games. Week 10 was nearly a disaster, with Hill finishing with only 16 receiving yards, though a 1-yard TD grab bailed him out. He has been one of the worst redraft picks this season, and his dynasty value is plummeting. While there may still be an opportunity for a 2025 bounceback, Hill’s best fantasy seasons appear to be behind him.

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears, 27 Years Old

DJ Moore joins Hill as a 2023 WR1 with free-falling fantasy football production in 2024. Moore faces multiple issues in Chicago, one of which was hopefully addressed with the firing of Shane Waldron. Play-calling and offensive pace aside, Moore still has a Caleb Williams problem, as the rookie QB has struggled, with 0 TD passes since Chicago returned from their bye week and a 60.5% completion rate. Moore has only one WR1 finish all season, with five of his nine games resulting in a WR4 or worse finish. This past offseason, Moore was valued at a 2025 first-round pick—a price tag that would be dismissed today. Unlike teammate Rome Odunze, Moore is in his fantasy prime and has now lost a valuable season after giving dynasty managers so much long-term hope in 2023.

Watch List

Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants, 30 Years Old

Johnson has the greatest first name in the NFL, and also looks like the Giants' long-term answer at TE. He has 12 targets and 7 catches over his last two games played. Johnson is an elite athlete, with an RAS score of 9.93 — the 9th highest of any TE since 1987.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco, 24 Years Old

I could have included Pearsall in the Stock Up category, but want to see what his role looks like for another week. Playing alongside Deebo Samuel, Jennings, and George Kittle, there could be some fantasy volatility with Pearsall weekly, but 2025 could be another story. On Sunday, Pearsall caught a 46-yard TD just two months after being shot. He looks like the heir apparent to Samuel, and a player with immense contingent upside over the second half of the season.