Dynasty fantasy football is a mean, fickle bully that tries as hard as it can to ruin you just two weeks into the season.
This year is no different, as the glitz and glamour of a new season has quickly turned to a “night that is dark full of terrors.” While there is no way to turn off injuries or force a coach to distribute touches rationally, we can still make moves at the right time to continue to push our teams’ chances forward in this heartbreaking game. Buying high seems the opposite of what the general dynasty community will tell you to do, but there are benefits to identifying patterns that stick around. Puka Nacua went off to start the 2023 season, and if you bought in, it paid off in a big way.
Let’s lay out the case for these buy-high and sell-low players.
All Trade Data via Dynasty Data Lab
All Statistical Data Via Data.FantasyPoints.com
BUY: Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
I have been a known Jamo hater for years. Mostly based on his projected role, injury, suspension, and ultimately his market price through his first two years — Round 7 and WR29, only one spot off from Chris Olave at WR28 in 2022. He stayed at WR29, but this time, he was right beside Brandon Aiyuk (WR28) and Chris Godwin (WR30), whom I preferred at that cost.
But this offseason, I began to envision a path to success, leading me to encourage our Discord subscribers to buy at his newfound Round 11 price. When a player with 25-point upside drops this drastically, he instantly becomes a buy.
This was a smash decision, and I am still trying to buy shares now.
Through two weeks, Williams has 19.4 points per game on an expected fantasy points per game of 19.4. XFP reflects the average fantasy value of all the volume a player gets. Obviously, some players are good, and some are bad and will consistently produce above/below XFP. Still, in general over a longer time period, you’d expect FPG to approach XFPG, cutting out the noise created by outlier efficiency. So not only scoring to expectations leaving nothing on the field. He is giving you exactly what you need to be a legitimate league winner — cost plus production.
Do you need more? Williams has more first-read targets than Detroit Lions WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown (20). Being the first read on this team was not expected with a legitimate alpha wide receiver on their roster. Williams is a big part of the game plan and is taking advantage, averaging over eight yards after the catch while forcing five missed tackles. This is truly unexpected and outstanding production through the first two games.
The Lions project to be a top-scoring offense in the NFL in 2024 based on their need to take a step forward and somehow improve on their top-three offensive finish last season. We have a player producing in the Brandon Aiyuk tier (if not better) who, at this pace, will be worth more than Aiyuk in a few weeks' time. He is a perfect buy right now for contending teams,
Completed Recent Trades (Dynasty Data Lab) 
BUY: Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin is one of the late-round WRs I loved this off-season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers told us through training camp that the slot would again be Godwin's home. And yet he was drafted as the WR40 from June 1 to July 31. Not only is Godwin excelling in this role once again, but through two games, he leads the NFL with 23.5 PPG, has a 34.2% first-read target share, and is second in the league to only Cooper Kupp in targets per route run (TPPR) at 0.37.
He is dominating in a role that once had him valued as a top-12 dynasty WR. You are getting him for significantly less. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers look ready for a big year, and buying high on Godwin's performance so far can pay off with a fantasy football championship this year.
Completed Recent Trades (Dynasty Data Lab) 
SELL: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Sometimes, it’s best to know when to cut ties with an asset we may be in love with. It pains me to say it might be time to sell low on Herbert. Herbert was drafted in the mid-second round in superflex startups this off-season as a non-Konami Code QB, and it is always hard for these archetypes to maintain high efficiency and elite production.
The likes of Baker Mayfield (QB22), Geno Smith (QB29), and Derek Carr (QB32) were all drafted later by a minimum of six rounds in startups, and Herbert is being majorly outproduced by all three — some by close to double. (Herbert’s 23.4 FPG is tied with Bo Nix). There really is no safety at QB in fantasy football.
It is always hard to watch a fantasy stud come in and get nerfed by their team's new hires. And, well, Herbert has had that happen to him. In his QB2 overall season in 2021, he averaged 294.4 passing YPG and 2.2 TDs per game on 39 attempts per game. And with qualifiers of 10 games played and 50 dropbacks minimum, his 0.54 fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) tied Matthew Stafford for ninth-best. Herbert now relies even more on passing volume, as he’s never eclipsed 300 rushing yards since that 2021 season.
This year, however, the Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman effect hit early, with the Chargers ranking the fourth-lowest in pass rate over expectation across the first two weeks of 2024. Herbert has attempted only four deep throws and averages a measly 137 YPG on 46 total attempts.
If this is how the team wins, nothing is likely to change about the offense’s approach for a few years. It is hard enough for a non-hyper-mobile QB to be fantasy-relevant, and the volume will not be there for Herbert as long as this coaching staff is in control. My number one pivot would be to attack the rookies who have yet to play, like JJ McCarthy and Drake Maye, and try to get some pieces on top where possible.
Completed Recent Trades (Dynasty Data Lab)
SELL: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
I’ve been skeptical about the Washington Commanders' pass-catchers since it was announced that Kliff Kingsbury would run the offense. Add in rookie Jayden Daniels, and we’ve got a recipe for McLaurin to continue to disappoint.
Though he leads the team with 12 targets and a 22.6% target share, McLaurin’s production has been more akin to that of a scat back, averaging just 19.5 receiving yards per game. He has a meager 9.5% receiving yards market share. The production simply isn’t there in this role as the de facto WR1 on this Commanders team.
McLaurin’s production sits within the Elijah Higgins and Darius Slayton range of pass catchers. This is nightmare fuel, as these players have not been productive in years carrying little to no dynasty value, with very little hope of regaining the form or value that even made him a dependable WR2 to covet. Though I have always thought he was a little overrated since being a premier waiver wire add during his rookie year, it is indeed time to cut bait and try to use him to attain some draft picks — significantly more straightforward to move in deals as a liquid asset in the future than an aging veteran WR with a bleak outlook.
Completed Recent Trades (Dynasty Data Lab)
