For a massive undertaking like Fantasy Points Data, we need a large team of dedicated and educated charting professionals to ensure that we are able to get statistics posted on the website both accurately and quickly.
While the data-charting process is, by nature, objective, our team will obviously form opinions about what they saw, given we have to watch every play multiple times.
Every week, we’ll select the most notable observations and back them up with the objective data we’ve become known for.
Here are our top observations for 2024 NFL Week 4.
Week 4 Data Charter Observations
1. “Welcome Kelce back to the fantasy elites at TE. With Rashee Rice’s injury, there was no one left to exploit the middle of the field. So, we once again saw vintage Kelce, with a little Noah Gray sprinkled in the two-minute drill.”
The defending Super Bowl Champions continue to win games despite their offense not living up to the highlight-reel juggernaut that we have come to expect. Injuries continue to pile up for the Chiefs as breakout WR Rashee Rice suffered a significant knee injury, leaving future HOF TE Travis Kelce and rookie WR Xavier Worthy to pick up the slack. Kelce turned in his best game of the season (7/89/0) largely due to a spike in his first read target share jumping to 46.7% after he saw just a 14.5% rate through the first three weeks. QB Patrick Mahomes only targeted Kelce and Worthy on deep throws in Week 4, one of which resulted in Mahomes’ lone touchdown pass to Worthy for a 54-yard score in the second quarter. Week 5 brings a home game against the Saints before the Chiefs head into a bye in Week 6 where they might look to bring in reinforcements for their barrage of early season injuries.
2. “Jared Goff was much more comfortable in the Lions offense than he has looked all season. They continued to center around Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but it opens the offense so much when defenses are focusing on stopping the run, allowing play action to be effective. If defenses are loading the box, Goff can run play action to open up throwing lanes for Jameson Williams and Amon-ra St. Brown downfield.”
Week 4 was a record breaking week for Lions’ QB Jared Goff as the veteran QB set the record for most attempts without an incompletion in an NFL game going 18 for 18 on pass attempts. The Lions leaned on RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to open up play action passes for Goff all game. 12 of Goff’s 18 pass attempts came on play action creating an excellent pressure rate of just 15.4% giving him time to throw for 229 of his 292 yards against the Seahawks including a 70-yard touchdown pass to Jameson Williams. Through four games, Goff leads the NFL in passing yards on play action at 540 yards (next closest is 370) and will look to continue dominating on play action passes when they return from their bye week in Week 6 against the Cowboys who are allowing the 7th most passing yards on play action throws.
3. “Javonte had one of his best games in a long time. Looking significantly more physical, breaking tackles, and hitting the holes with anger. He managed to rip off at least 4 runs of 9+ yards, and you could see the confidence growing as he was signaling to the sidelines to keep feeding him.”
Rumblings of changes to the Broncos backfield were growing after Week 3 as starter Javonte Williams plodded his way to just 52 yards on 24 attempts in the season’s first three games. The former UNC product answered the calls for a replacement with his best game of the season against the Jets in Week 4 with 16 carries for 77 yards in a sloppy game with little offense. Williams ran with aggression as he averaged 2.63 YACO/ATT and created 3 forced missed tackles after putting up just 1.83 YACO/ATT and only 5 MTFs through the first three games. The Broncos evened their record at 2-2 and will get a solid matchup in Week 5 against the Raiders who currently rank bottom-10 in explosive yards, YACO/ATT, and YBCO/ATT allowed to opposing RBs.
4. “The Texans absolutely abused the middle of the field all game long. Whether it was with deep crossers or deep in routes in front of the safeties, behind the LBs. Then as the game wore on, the LBs drifted too deep and set up underneath routes to Dare Ogunbowale and others.”
The Texans and Jaguars squared off in an important early season AFC South matchup where QB CJ Stroud totaled his highest passing output of the season. Stroud frequently dialed up his favorite target WR Nico Collins on intermediate throws of 10-19 yards down field connecting for 115 of Collins’ 151 yards on the day. With starting RB Joe Mixon out and the game in the balance, the Texans dialed up Dare Ogunbowale 4 times on the last drive for only 14 yards, but he did score the game winning touchdown to send Houston to 3-1. On the season, Stroud ranks 4th in total passing yards at 1,054 despite only a 9.4% deep throw percentage (19th). Getting WR Tank Dell back will be crucial for the Texans in Week 5 as the Bills come to Houston for a matchup between two of the AFC’s best teams.
5. “Deshaun Watson’s shoulder looks completely shot. There are numerous throws where he looks like he is using all arms and has no zip on his passes. As a result, the Browns seem to not call many downfield plays.”
The Browns fell to 1-3 on the season and their trade and subsequent contract with QB Deshaun Watson continues to look worse. Watson has thrown for under 200 yards in every game thus far in 2024 and the underlying stats suggest he does not trust whatever it is he is seeing downfield. Although the Browns offensive line is surrendering the worst pressure rate over expected at 15.46%, Watson owns the 4th slowest time-to-throw at 2.93 seconds suggesting he is holding onto the ball for too long. When he does get rid of the ball, Browns WRs are seeing bottom-third of the league rates in accurate throw percentage (45.9%), catchable target percentage (75.7%), and off-target throw percentage (17.6%). Deep throws have been even worse as Watson has 15 attempts of 20+ yards downfield (7th most) translating to just 4 completions for 96 yards (5th worst), which leads to a -5.4% CPOE. Week 5 will be Watson’s 17th game with the Browns and he matches up with the Commanders. If Watson struggles again in a favorable matchup, backup QB Jameis Winston might need to be called upon to save the season for fantasy owners invested in the Browns’ offense.
6. “Kenneth Walker brings a whole different element to the Seattle offense. The Lions were one of the best run defenses in the league and he consistently made defenders miss. Charbonnet looks like a full back compared to Walker particularly in space where Walker is nearly impossible to bring down.”
In a game where the Seahawks defense allowed 42 points, the Seahawks offense relied on RB Kenneth Walker to keep pace with the Lions on Monday Night Football. QB Geno Smith frequently pushed the ball downfield to the tune of 395 passing yards, but Walker was called upon to finish drives while racking up 116 total yards and 3 TDs on 16 touches. Despite missing two games with an oblique injury, Walker ranks 3rd best in both MTF/ATT (0.34) and explosive run rate (15.6%). Backup RB Zach Charbonnet filled in admirably during Walker’s absence, but Walker’s elusiveness and pass catching brings this offense to another level as noted by OC Ryan Grubb. The Giants pay a visit to Seattle in Week 5, which is music to Walker-owners’ ears because the Giants’ defense has given up the 3rd most tackles to RBs (22) and are allowing 2.95 YACO/ATT (most in the league).
7. “Alex Mattison has a lot more juice than Zamir White. White fumbled again and was immediately benched. He did come back in, but Mattison was hitting holes for explosive plays and is much better in the passing game. My guess is Mattison takes over and White is used in short-yardage situations.”
Raiders’ HC Antonio Pierce commented in his post game press conference that RB Alex Mattison has earned more touches following the team's 20-16 win over the Browns in Week 4. Mattison outgained teammate Zamir White 60 to 50 on the ground despite White holding a 17 to 5 advantage in carries. The season total metrics on Mattison versus White have been resoundingly in Mattison’s favor with the former Viking outperforming White in explosive run rate (17.6% to 2.0%), stuff percentage (35.3% to 59.2%), MTF/ATT (0.12 to 0.08), YACO/ATT (2.41 to 1.88), and YBCO/ATT (2.71 to 1.22). A costly fumble by White in the third quarter that the Browns returned for a touchdown gives even more credence to Mattison seeing increased playing time as White is now up to two lost fumbles in the early going. Our first look at the Raiders’ backfield plan comes on the road against the divisional-rival Broncos in Week 5, who turned in a great defensive performance against the Jets in Week 4.
8. “The Vikings offensive line is absolutely tremendous in pass protection. They create the picture perfect pocket for Sam Darnold to be able to just sit back and ‘matriculate the ball down the field’ as the Guru John Hansen would say. Darnold did have his own moments of ugly football, settling for a lot of underneath routes and oftentimes floating the ball high or over the receivers head. One could chalk it up to the wind, but I am not sure if it was that or him just trying to push the envelope a little extra.”
Arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL is the Vikings being 4-0 with wins over the 49ers, Texans, and Packers (in Lambeau no less). Play calling and offensive line play have resurrected once-forgotten QB Sam Darnold’s career as he is easily playing his best football. Darnold ranks top-10 in ANY/A (8.22), CPOE (4.4%), accurate throw rate (53.8%), and off-target throw rate (12.3%). Fantasy players were concerned coming into the season that the QB play from Darnold would sink the Vikings’ skill players production, but those concerns have been wiped out as Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones average a healthy 20.0, 14.7, and 18.4 FP/G respectively. One area that needs to improve is Darnold currently ranks 21st in turnover worthy throw rate at 4.7%. Week 5 features the first London game of the season as the Vikings travel overseas to take on the Jets where Darnold and the Vikings offense will look to continue rolling in the early season.
Bonus Observations
Broncos CB Patrick Surtain — Our weekly Surtain observation highlights the CB shadowing Jets’ WR Garrett Wilson 55 of 76 snaps and holding him to 5 catches for 41 yards on 8 targets. Surtain dominated this matchup and the Jets offense as a whole struggled to move the ball. We might get robbed of an under prop bet on Davante Adams in Week 5 now that Adams has popped up with an injury while requesting a trade.
Panthers QB Andy Dalton — It’s truly amazing how Andy Dalton has been able to save Carolina’s season offensively. After back-to-back weeks of seeing the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the league (14.8%), Dalton has thrived with his top two targets in Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. Johnson has 122 and 83 yards in the past two games while scoring in each one, while Legette had his best game as a pro with 6 catches for 66 yards and a TD.
49ers WR Jauan Jennings — Even with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back, Jennings was open all game and seemingly a go-to target with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel attracting attention on the outside. Jennings made all 3 of his catches for 88 yards against two-high safety looks where Aiyuk and Samuel were covered up.
