For a massive undertaking like Fantasy Points Data, we need a large team of dedicated and educated charting professionals to ensure that we are able to get statistics posted on the website both accurately and quickly.
While the data-charting process is, by nature, objective, our team will obviously form opinions about what they saw, given we have to watch every play multiple times.
Every week, we’ll select the most notable observations and back them up with the objective data we’ve become known for.
Here are our top 10 observations for 2024 NFL Week 1.
Week 1 Data Charter Observations
1. “QB Bryce Young was legitimately catastrophically bad in all facets — missing open guys, taking bad sacks, holding the ball too long, trying to scramble, etc. His line did him no favors, sure. And as the broadcast suggested – they were just giving it to him in empty sets instead of even attempting to establish the run, and that clearly didn’t work. But, yeah, Bryce was just plain awful.”
Bryce Young ranked worst among all Week 1 QBs in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-16.9%). For perspective, Bailey Zappe ranked worst last year… at just -5.5%. Players have bad games, but Panthers fans hoping for a fast start for Young under new HC Dave Canales have to be a little concerned with such a poor start to the season. Young also faced pressure on 50% of dropbacks, so finding ways to take heat off of Young is a must for Canales.
2. “QB Daniel Jones looks awful. He had some horrifically inaccurate throws under minimal pressure. No surprise, HC Brian Daboll is already fielding questions about who will be starting in Week 1.”
Daniel Jones’ final stat line looks poor, and his performance on film was probably worse. That said, Jones faced the highest pressure rate of any QB in Week 1 (51%), which surely played a role in him attempting zero deep passes in Week 1. (Kirk Cousins was the only other QB to not attempt a pass over 20 yards downfield.) Our pre-season offensive line rankings had the Giants checking in at 31st overall, and that certainly stood out as an issue for the team in Week 1. I do not think the ACL is to blame for Jones’ poor performance. We saw multiple designed runs and willing scrambles from him in this game. So as bad as he was, he may still be playable in DFS in certain weeks. Better days lie ahead for WR Malik Nabers as well. He drew Stephon Gilmore’s shadow coverage, and the bulk of his targets came when Daboll was able to scheme Nabers away from him.
3. “George Pickens should be on the field more, but he at least is the clear alpha in the pass game. He comes out for the heavy package, but it reminds me of a third-down back. Third-down backs are often in there to block rather than catch passes. When the Steelers want to run, they don’t want Pickens blocking, but when they want to throw, Pickens is in there.”
Pickens played on 44 of 66 offensive snaps (66.7%), which ranked 61st among wide receivers. The Steelers bring in their “Heavy” package with three tight ends and Scotty Miller when they want to run, which contributed to Pickens’ lack of playing time. But, when the Steelers want to throw, QB Justin Fields will be looking for Pickens. Fields targeted Pickens 33.3% of the time as the first read or designed target (12th-most among WRs in Week 1). The third-year receiver could have had an even bigger day, with multiple 30+-yard catches negated by penalty or overturned. To make Pickens' game even more impressive, he posted a 0.450 ASS score in Week 1 (top-5 on the week) despite seeing shadow coverage from Falcons’ CB AJ Terrell.
4. “Kirk Cousins looked like a shell of himself, seeming to look underneath frequently. Drake London hardly saw the ball thrown his way, and Ray-Ray McCloud paced the Falcons in receiving.”
Coming off an Achilles tear in 2023, Falcons’ QB Kirk Cousins seemed to be easing back into the game in Week 1. The Falcons' offensive line was “OK” on Sunday, allowing a +6.1% pressure rate over expected (13th-worst), yet Cousins attempted zero passes 20+ yards downfield. WR Drake London’s average depth of target (aDOT) was 8.7, and TE Kyle Pitts registered 9.0 against the Steelers, down from 11.4 and 11.9, respectively, in 2023. It is one game in a new offense and coming off a major injury, but Cousins will need to settle into the offense in order to truly unlock London and Pitts.
5. “Joe Mixon didn’t break a ton of tackles but looked good and decisive, kept knocking guys over, almost broke a couple of big plays.”
Texans’ RB Joe Mixon paced the NFL in rushing yards in Week 1, racking up 159 yards on 30 carries. Mixon is not always the most elusive back, and he had only 4 forced missed tackles — 0.13 forced missed tackles per attempt (t-27th among RBs) on Sunday. It flat-out might not matter much, given the Texans offense will be one of the top offenses in the NFL. The Texans’ offensive line helped Mixon average 2.77 yards before contact per attempt, which was 4th-best among running backs with at least 5 attempts. Opportunity is king, and weighted opportunity reigns supreme, so expect Mixon to continue to feast in a fantasy-friendly environment.
6. “Denver still can’t stop the run. The formation and scheme allow for gap runs through the middle all day.”
Under Sean Payton, the Broncos have been a team for opposing offenses to attack on the ground. This season started off no differently, as Seahawks’ RB Kenneth Walker crossed the century mark thanks to 2.25 yards before contact per attempt, good for 10th best through Sunday (among running backs with 5+ carries). Where Walker really had success was on Gap Concept runs, on which he gashed the Broncos for 64 yards on 10 carries including a 23-yard touchdown run in the 3rd quarter. The Broncos meet Arthur Smith’s Steelers in Week 2. Smith’s Falcons opted for zone runs over man/gap concepts at one of the top-2 highest rates in each of the last three seasons. So, while it’s not a perfect schematic matchup, we know Smith loves to pound the rock, and we should expect Pittsburgh RBs to have plenty of success on the ground.
7. “Everyone was worried about who would occupy the Josh Reynolds role for last year, Jameson Williams is more than just their drop-in replacement for him. He looked like a complete receiver, and an absolute stud.”
A question coming into the season was how the Lions would account for the loss of WR Josh Reynolds at their WR2 spot, and 2024 could not have started much better than it did for WR Jameson Williams. The third-year wide receiver had catch and runs of 36 and 27 yards to go along with 3 deep targets while corralling one for a 52-yard touchdown. He even had a 13-yard end around for dessert. All told, Jamo racked up 134 total yards on 6 touches. Most importantly, QB Jared Goff targeted Williams on a team-high 42.9% as the first read target, which is way up from his 11.5 first read target percentage in 2023. Teammates Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta will receive more looks game-to-game, but one thing is for certain and that is Williams is primed for a huge breakout in 2024.
8. “Any WR1/WR2 is a play against Washington. Baker could have thrown for 150+ more yards if he did not miss seeing open receivers or busted coverages.”
Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield baked the Commanders’ secondary, connecting on at least one touchdown to all three of his top wide receivers in Week 1. WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all came in with plus matchups, according to the Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Report, and the trio did not disappoint. Any secondary will have their hands full covering that group, but the Commanders entered the season as a defense to target for opposing passing attacks after allowing the highest passer rating in 2023. Former first-round pick CB Emmanuel Forbes had a difficult rookie season and picked up right where he left off as he was benched in the third quarter after surrendering a DPI and a facemask on the same play (Chris Godwin caught a touchdown on the next play). Overall, the Commanders allowed the highest passer rating as a defense at 146.4 in Week 1, indicating HC Dan Quinn has his work cut out for him to fix the Washington defense.
9. “Chase was the only WR who could get open, so Higgins will help, but the O-Line needs to hold up better.”
QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals fell to 1-4 in Week 1s after an upset loss to the Patriots. Bengals’ WRs made headlines throughout the offseason, leading right up to a few days before the game as Ja’Marr Chase held in right up until game preparation and Tee Higgins requested a trade … before missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury. Higgins’ absence was felt all game as the Bengals had the highest drop rate at 13.8% despite seeing an 86.2% catchable ball rate (11th-best). Backup WRs Andre Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, and Charlie Jones combined for 60 routes run for a dismal 0.62 YPRR. Burrow looked just OK in his season debut but might have been a little skittish behind his offensive line especially since he is coming off major wrist surgery. In 2023, Burrow faced a pressure rate of 28.5% leading to a 6.7 average depth of target. Comparing that to Week 1 this season, he saw a 31.4% pressure rate, bringing his aDOT down to just 5.6 yards. Higgins’ return will help Burrow settle in moving forward, but how his wrist responds will be something to monitor throughout the season.
10. “Arizona’s run defense and inability to maintain the middle of the LOS allowed for big runs up the gut. You saw Buffalo lean on this more in the 2nd half.”
Bills RB James Cook had a successful Week 1 with 103 total yards on 22 touches. His offensive line guided him to 2.37 yards before contact per attempt (7th-best among running backs with 5+ carries). Now the bad news. The knock on Cook coming into the season was that Bills QB Josh Allen is the goal-line running back in this offense, and Sunday was no different to start the season. Allen had 5 carries (2 scrambles) for 20 yards and 2 touchdowns to Cook’s 3 carries for 8 yards inside the red zone. Allen continues to be the bane of Cook’s weighted-opportunity existence and it will be difficult for him to reach a higher ceiling given how the Bills put the ball in Allen’s hands in scoring position more than Kobe Bryant on the post-Shaq Lakers.
In other news, expect a monster performance from Kyren Williams in Week 2. His Week 1 usage was exactly as good as last season, while rookie Blake Corum failed to log a single offensive snap. I worry a bit about the Rams OL, given all of the injuries they suffered in Week 1. But Arizona’s poor run defense should help negate this concern.
Bonus Observations
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson – Stevenson was out there playing Frogger on expert mode. Stevenson faced stacked boxes on 10 carries (3rd most in Week 1) and saw only 0.84 yards before contact per attempt (54th among all running backs). Despite the traffic, he was able to break a Week 1-high 11 tackles (0.44 per rush) on his way to 120 yards on the ground. I will say it again, opportunity is king, and Mondre is elusive as they come.
Patriots WR Ja’Lynn Polk – Polk really impressed me in this game. He looked like New England’s best separator. The targets will come, and more participation than his Week 1 route share (62%) as well. Most importantly, Polk is an ASS man. Among WRs with at least 10 routes run, Polk finished with a 0.389 average separation score (6th best in Week 1). He’s a worthwhile stash in deeper leagues.
Seahawks WR DK Metcalf – Broncos CB Patrick Surtain shadowed Metcalf in this game, with lots of press, too (2 flags for holding/PI). Surtain shadowed Metcalf on all 24 of the receiver’s routes and held him to just 3 catches for 29 yards resulting (0.17 TPRR / 1.21 YPRR). Last year, Metcalf averaged 0.23 TPRR and 2.22 YPRR, but his early season schedule does him no favors as he meets Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez in Week 2, followed by a Week 3 showdown with the league’s highest-paid CB in Jalen Ramsey. (Ramsey played terribly in Week 1, but he should get better each week he’s farther removed from his hamstring injury.)
Colts QB Anthony Richardson – Richardson is coming off an injury-shortened rookie season after suffering a concussion followed by a shoulder injury. There’s something about the way AR15 gets hit that is so gnarly. He got suplexed on an early sack, and his head bounced off the turf. A scramble in the second quarter saw a defender go literally flying over top of AR15, trying to just smoke him. Had he hit him, it would have been a potential personal foul. If AR15 can stay healthy, his arm and legs are such a potent cheat code. He may not be able to hit every throw, but if he could it would not be fair. I mean, you all saw the play on which he stumbled and was on his back foot, but still was able to launch a 60-yard touchdown to wide receiver Alec Pierce. This was the 2nd-longest (by air yards) completed throw in Fantasy Points Data history.
Panthers RB Miles Sanders – Sanders has a pulse! Honestly, he looked more shifty than teammate Chuba Hubbard in this game. 2023 saw Sanders get written off by the former coaching staff, leading to career lows in carries, yards, and yards per carry. Albeit on limited carries, the veteran running back forced one missed tackle to Hubbard’s zero and averaged 2.40 yards after contact to Hubbard’s 1.50 in Week 1.
