Attention all fantasy football trade addicts: this article is for you. Here, I’ll be re-ranking the top 50 most valuable players each week, with PPR scoring in mind. You can use these rankings and writeups to make informed roster and trade decisions heading into Week 5.
With nearly a quarter of the season gone, I’ve almost entirely stopped making excuses for players who have yet to flash any production (unless their usage is unbelievable). We’re now at the point where this season’s results are as predictive as preseason ADP.
As always, you’ll find the player’s positive or negative movement from the week before in parentheses.
1. Christian McCaffrey
RB1, SF (+1 spot gained)
McCaffrey ranks 1st among RBs in XFP/G (21.5, min. 2 games) and 1st in FPG (30.0). His workload is 10% more valuable than what last year's RB1 (Austin Ekeler) saw, and he's unsurprisingly smashing expectations playing in the scheme of one of the best running game designers of all time. I and plenty of others are currently feeling very dumb for dismissing him from the 1.01 conversation this summer.
2. Tyreek Hill
WR1, MIA (-1 spot lost)
Hill leads all qualifying WRs in fantasy points per route run (0.90) and expected fantasy points per route run (0.72). He's obviously overperforming expectations, but that's what happens when you're Tyreek Hill.
3. Justin Jefferson
WR2, MIN (+1)
Jefferson is still pacing for over 2,300 receiving yards and trails only Davante Adams in XFP/G (23.3). If the biggest negative about a player is that bored people on Twitter are theorizing how his QB will get traded away, that's probably a really good player.
4. Tony Pollard
RB2, DAL (-1)
Pollard had a down game from a scoring and usage perspective on a day the Cowboys' defense scored multiple TDs. I'm not convinced there's a ton to worry about here outside of the possibility the Cowboys blow out their opponents this badly a few more times this season — and on most days, that would mean more TD equity for Pollard, not less.
5. Travis Kelce
TE1, KC (0)
If Kelce were a WR, he'd rank as the WR11 in XFP/G. The usage is more or less exactly where it was last year, he's just yet to have a true spike week.
6. Bijan Robinson
RB3, ATL (+1)
Robinson's 18.5% target share and 72.5% route share lead all qualifying RBs this season, and his rush share has gone up every game. Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith wouldn't dream of throwing to anyone else, even if there were multiple other top-10 draft picks playing skill positions on this offense. Could you imagine?
7. Austin Ekeler
RB4, LAC (+3)
Ekeler got some practice activity in before Week 4 but was listed as doubtful, ultimately missing once again. He seems very likely to return following the Chargers' Week 5 bye, and he'll be needed with Mike Williams on the shelf.
8. Davante Adams
WR3, LV (0)
Adams leads all WRs in first-read target share (54.9%!), air yards share (51.6%), and XFP/G (23.6). He's the only WR who is still maintaining above a 45% first-read share. This level of target domination is unheard of.
9. A.J. Brown
WR4, PHI (+5)
Brown ranks top-3 in each of our Big 3 stats (air yards share, first-read target share, and XFP/G). I capitulated way too much to those who were upset after the first two weeks. He's a top-5 WR rest-of-season.
10. Stefon Diggs
WR5, BUF (+1)
Diggs has benefitted from the Bills' pass-more, scramble-less approach, as he ranks top-5 in catchable targets (34) and first-read target share (38.4%).
11. Ja'Marr Chase
WR6, CIN (-5)
Chase ranks 6th in receiving yards market share (39.0%) and 9th in XFP/G (18.3) despite Joe Burrow being unable to take a snap under center. Tee Higgins may or may not miss time with his rib injury, but additional volume isn't necessarily what Chase needs. His 7.5 aDOT is down a full 2.3 yards from last season, largely because the Bengals seem to recognize how limited Burrow currently is. We could still be a few weeks away from a truly explosive (or even functioning) offense.
12. Keenan Allen
WR7, LAC (-3)
A single game in which Josh Palmer somehow drew a 35.7% first-read target share and Justin Herbert only threw the ball 24 times is not going to make me blink on Allen, who still ranks top-5 among WRs in XFP/G (20.8), ahead of Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs.
13. CeeDee Lamb
WR8, DAL (0)
The Cowboys are apparently incapable of having a normal game script, but that could change very quickly against the 49ers, Chargers, Rams, and Eagles over the next month. All aside from the Rams rank top-6 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, so don't be shocked if Lamb begins outperforming that 16.2 XFP/G (WR13) instead of slightly underperforming it (15.5 FPG, WR16).
14. Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR9, DET (-2)
St. Brown's day was saved by a touchdown during a positive game script in which he ran only 29 routes, but sometimes good players get lucky, too. His 15.5 XFP/G (WR15) is a bit lower than some might expect, but I'm not convinced he's a sell given his history of target domination.
15. Chris Olave
WR10, NO (0)
From Weeks 1-3, Derek Carr led all qualifying passers with an 18.4% deep throw rate (beyond 20 yards). In Week 4, that dropped to 13.5% (QB9), which isn't terrible all things considered – namely, the amount of shoulder pain Carr is likely playing through. What was terrible is that only 49 of Olave's 153 air yards were catchable in Week 4. I'm not expecting great things against New England this week, but this should ultimately only be a short-term concern.
16. Kyren Williams
RB5, LAR (+9)
Apparently, the Rams trying to "get other running backs involved" means Kyren Williams still sees 75.6% of the snaps (RB6) and 20.4 XFP (RB5). It's worth wondering whether Williams may have been a revelation as a rookie if not for the broken foot he suffered in June and the high-ankle sprain he sustained in his first game — remember Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers alternating weeks as bell cows with Sean McVay unable to find a configuration he liked? I've definitely heard it from readers for having Williams ranked so aggressively, but through nearly a quarter of the season, he's the RB6 in FPG (20.4) with only Christian McCaffrey, two Dolphins RBs, and one-game samples of Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara ranking ahead of him.
17. Puka Nacua
WR11, LAR (+7)
Nacua is tied with Davante Adams for the league lead in targets (50) and tore up a zone-heavy team once again in Week 4. He's run nearly 70% of his routes from out wide, the least among the Rams' starting WR trio. This suggests he's the least susceptible to a Cooper Kupp return, who the Rams reportedly are bringing along slowly, as they don't believe he's yet returned to 80-90% of his ability.
18. DeVonta Smith
WR12, PHI (-1)
While Smith is capable of spike weeks, he probably isn't capable of what A.J. Brown just did (38.5 fantasy points on a 64.8% air yards share in a single week). Maybe that's unfair, but Smith's usage has been unspectacular overall, as he's seen only 11.9 XFP/G (WR42!!). I think it's more than fair to compare him to Puka Nacua — whose main target competition is not yet healthy.
19. Josh Allen
QB1, BUF (+13)
Though I've been skeptical until now that Allen could hold on to his previous ceiling without running the ball as much, he is the QB1 in FPG (27.5) over the past three weeks since Ken Dorsey made that comment — despite logging only 10 rushing attempts in that span (tied-15th among QBs). An 11-yard touchdown run was what put Allen over the top last week, but he was also ruthlessly efficient, throwing for 320 yards and 4 TDs on just 29 dropbacks. Count me among the believers again, as the results have spoken for themselves.
20. Justin Herbert
QB2, LAC (+1)
Through four weeks, Herbert ranks 4th in deep ball rate (15.2%), 7th in aDOT (9.0), and 1st in FPG (24.2). Last season, he ranked 27th and 29th in those metrics among qualifying QBs. It sure seems like the Kellen Moore thesis — the idea that Herbert's depressed target depth over the past two years was the fault of former OC Joe Lombardi, and not Herbert himself — is playing out.
21. Jonathan Taylor
RB6, IND (+Previously Outside Top-50)
Taylor was activated from IR this week, with coach Shane Steichen suggesting he could play as soon as Week 5. He practiced fully on Wednesday. This is quite the whiplash from when we were unsure Taylor would play at all this season without a new contract, but he has clear upside even in Indianapolis considering Zack Moss currently ranks 8th among RBs in XFP/G (18.2).
22. Saquon Barkley
RB7, NYG (+7)
I've given up on reading the tea leaves for when Barkley will return. Fantasy Points injury expert Edwin Porras believes a Week 5 return is possible, so I'll rank him accordingly. But a Week 5 return does not mean a return to performance — remember, Barkley averaged just 10.5 FPG after his low-ankle sprain in 2021.
23. Josh Jacobs
RB8, LV (+4)
Jacobs ranks 6th among RBs in XFP/G (19.6) and now leads the position in targets (24). It took a check-down bonanza from a sitting New York representative for him to begin his upward positive regression, but as I mentioned last week, the Raiders now get several winnable matchups against the Packers, Patriots, Bears, Lions, and Giants. Jacobs averaged 28.9 FPG in wins last season (RB1), with the Raiders sitting at 1-4 this year.
24. Patrick Mahomes II
QB3, KC (-4)
After a mediocre fantasy performance against a tough Jets defense, Mahomes falls to just 20.9 FPG (QB9) on the season. His receivers certainly haven't helped much, as he's thrown to his first read only 60.8% of the time (QB25) and ranks first in passing yards on scrambles (159). However, over the next four weeks, the Chiefs play the Vikings (15th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs), Broncos (2nd-most), Chargers (3rd-most), and the Broncos again (2nd-most). Mahomes will be lighting up the scoreboard plenty in the near future.
25. Cooper Kupp
WR13, LAR (-3)
The Rams seem to hope Kupp can play in Week 5, but the tone of reports like this one suggests it's a long shot. It sounds like the team is smartly refraining from rushing Kupp back, and that he's not yet at an acceptable playing speed. If Puka Nacua continues balling out and the offense continues playing well, that's only more incentive for the team to tread carefully.
26. Kenneth Walker III
RB9, SEA (+9)
After declining for three straight weeks, Walker's route share bounced back up to 44.8%. His participation inside the last four minutes of each half (82.4% snap share) helped as well. I'll eat crow on Walker after last week — if he's back to running routes, it's more likely his 16.5 XFP/G (RB13) holds, so I'll happily rank him back in that range.
27. Anthony Richardson
QB4, IND (+11)
Richardson has played only 9 full quarters this season but has amassed 70.3 fantasy points. That equates to 31.2 fantasy points per four quarters, 21% better than Jalen Hurts' league-leading 25.7 FPG in 2022. Richardson is also averaging a league-leading 0.83 fantasy points per dropback, compared to Hurts' 0.71 last season. However you slice it, Richardson is currently live for one of the best QB seasons of all time.
28. Brandon Aiyuk
WR14, SF (+15)
After his 148-yard Week 4 performance, Aiyuk leads all WRs in receiving yards market share (45.1%) in the games he's been active. He also ranks 2nd (behind only Davante Adams) in air yards share (50.3%). San Francisco's -1.3% pass rate over expectation is the 8th-lowest in the NFL, so Aiyuk won't be as good as his market share stats suggest, but it's pretty clear he's the WR1 on this team whenever he's healthy.
29. Jalen Hurts
QB5, PHI (-11)
Though Hurts still accounts for 50% of his team's carries inside the 5-yard line, like Mahomes, he hasn't kept pace with other QBs rising up the rankings, averaging only 21.4 FPG (QB7) so far. His 3.4 YPC will likely improve toward his career mark (5.0) as the sample gets larger, but his TD rate (3.8%) and YPA (7.4) through the air are very similar to his 2021 season. It's possible 2022 was an aberration for Hurts as a passer, a thought that has me moving him down somewhat.
30. Lamar Jackson
QB6, BAL (+7)
Jackson leads all QBs in rushing YPG (55.0) and attempts per game (10.25). His 7.6 YPA is the best he's had since his record-breaking 2019 season. Even in a new offense and with many of his receivers injured, it's clear Jackson still belongs in the top tier of the position.
31. De'Von Achane
RB10, MIA (+Previously Outside Top-50)
Remember last week, when I mentioned the possibility of Achane eating into Raheem Mostert's route share as the season goes on? Well, it happened quicker than I thought, as Achane jumped from running a route on 32.1% of team dropbacks (RB30) in Week 3 to 61.0% (RB6) last week. For his part, Mostert lost a fumble that led to an easy Bills field goal. Achane is quickly ascending up the rankings, as the momentum in this backfield appears in his direction.
32. Mike Evans
WR15, TB (-6)
It sounds like Evans has a good chance of returning from his "mild" hamstring injury after the Buccaneers' Week 5 bye, but Evans' history and the recurrence rates of this injury in older WRs are worth noting. Now may actually be a decent time to cash out on Evans, given this risk that many won't appreciate. He's also running a bit hot with 3.2 fantasy points per game over expectation. If you want to avoid suspicion, you could present your motivation as being desperate for a win this week that a player on bye can't get you. There's a Mike Evans Guy in every league, you just have to find them.
33. Calvin Ridley
WR16, JAC (-17)
Christian Kirk has now seen more XFP than Ridley in two of four games. I don't want to be caught anchoring to Week 1 more heavily than more recent data, but I also don't want to forget that Ridley still leads the NFL in fantasy points lost to penalties and DPIs (22.3), which could certainly regress. Still, this could be a more spread-it-around offense than I'd originally envisioned.
34. Jaylen Waddle
WR17, MIA (-15)
Waddle has not surpassed a 70% route share or a 20% target share in any of his three games. He's also seeing little downfield usage, his 17.0% air yards share being in the same ballpark as teammates Braxton Berrios and "Robbie Chosen". I'm putting feelers out if I have Waddle on my roster — because we have to listen to the usage at some point — but I'll hold out a little hope that Mike McDaniel makes some adjustments and Waddle returns to business as usual.
35. Tee Higgins
WR18, CIN (-12)
There are some reports that Higgins will attempt to play through his broken ribs, which wouldn't be unheard of, but it's very difficult to rank him highly when he's not been producing (9.2 FPG, WR51) on decent but not great usage (14.7 XFP/G, WR21) when there's a clear explanation for why he's underperforming. We can revisit this in a couple of weeks when Higgins and Burrow are on the mend, but the vibes are horrific in the short term — which may mean he's a buy-low candidate.
36. Alvin Kamara
RB11, NO (+Previously Outside Top-50)
Kamara handled a massive workload in his return to the lineup in Week 4, to the tune of a 62.8% route share (RB4), 14 targets (RB1), and 25.9 XFP (RB4). Derek Carr may not check down as frequently after his shoulder heals over the next couple of weeks, but it's tough not to get excited when you see one of the most efficient RBs of all time get this type of workload. Kamara probably isn't his old self anymore, but that won't matter much if this usage continues.
37. Joe Mixon
RB12, CIN (-9)
Mixon has commanded 79.9% of his backfield's XFP (RB3), but that's only translated to 12.9 XFP/G (RB25). Mixon's ceiling would be monstrous if Joe Burrow and the Bengals were performing up to their preseason expectation, and it could still be another couple of weeks until Burrow's calf is healed. Once Burrow is again able to take snaps under center, it will likely be wheels up for Mixon and the rest of the offense.
38. James Cook
RB13, BUF (-4)
In a dramatic reversal from the first three weeks, Cook handled both of the Bills' carries inside the 5-yard line and punched in a goal-line TD. He did only run a route on a season-low 31.0% of the Bills' dropbacks, so it's possible they were simply trying something different on Sunday, but Cook has legitimate top-12 upside if he can hang on to his role between the 20s and mix in on the goal line going forward.
39. Jahmyr Gibbs
RB14, DET (-6)
With David Montgomery returning to the lineup, Gibbs at least managed a 21.5% target share (RB5 on the week) despite running a route on only 41.9% of the Lions' dropbacks (RB21). Perhaps the Lions should give Gibbs the Kyle Juszczyk treatment, who ran a route on 68.2% of dropbacks (RB3) alongside Christian McCaffrey (72.7%, RB1) in Week 3. It's a little concerning how quickly the Lions gave David Montgomery 32 carries when he was coming off of injury, but Gibbs has done just enough when he's been on the field to make me still believe in the upside. But that doesn't mean I need to rank him above players who are currently seeing great usage and are producing.
40. Christian Watson
WR19, GB (-1)
Watson was limited in Week 4, running a route on only 43.9% of the Packers' dropbacks. He was the first read on all four of his targets (including his TD). My (perhaps biased) read is that the Packers wanted to make it a point to get him some action without risking a setback, which succeeded. Hopefully, he'll be unleashed this week.
41. Nico Collins
WR20, HOU (+Previously Outside Top-50)
Can't we have a little fun in this column? Collins is the WR7 in FPG (20.7) and top-24 in XFP/G (14.7). He leads all qualifying WRs in missed tackles forced per reception (0.50). He's paired with exciting rookie C.J. Stroud, who has been playing out of his mind in his first four games. The schedule gets a bit tougher (with the Texans' next four opponents each ranking in the bottom half of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, after the first four have all ranked in the top half), but Collins has the usage to back up a ranking like this (9th in total air yards). Don't forget that Year 3 is a common breakout year for WRs. I'm choosing to view Collins outperforming his volume as a sign of upside rather than a certain regression signal.
42. Derrick Henry
RB15, TEN (-1)
I expressed concern last week that Henry might prove me wrong, and he sort of did — turning in a 24.4 fantasy point-performance good for RB7 on the week. I say "sort of" because Henry still only posted a 59.7% snap share and a workload worth just 12.6 XFP in a best-possible game script. The Titans have a shot to be competitive in most of their upcoming matchups, but I'd still be leaning sell on Henry given you can likely get more than his 13.6 XFP/G (RB20) would imply.
43. Travis Etienne Jr.
RB16, JAC (-13)
The Jaguars' offense has had its share of struggles this season, and Etienne has accordingly averaged just 14.4 XFP/G (RB16) despite handling 61.6% of the team's rushing attempts (RB9) and running a route on 54.3% of their dropbacks (RB6). Etienne still has no carries inside the 5-yard line — though to be fair, nor did the rest of the Jaguars' backfield in Week 4. He is a lower-upside James Cook on a weekly basis.
44. Amari Cooper
WR21, CLE (-4)
Cooper is now a WR1 in terms of usage (16.2 XFP/G) but has seen only 19 catchable targets this season — the same as Jayden Reed and Terrace Marshall. He's stuck down here until Deshaun Watson figures it out.
45. T.J. Hockenson
TE2, MIN (-14)
It's Week 5, and I'm already out of things to say about T.J. Hockenson. He runs a ton of routes (135, TE2) at painfully mediocre efficiency (1.50 YPRR, TE11). To compare, if Sam LaPorta ran as many routes as Hockenson and maintained his efficiency, he'd be averaging 85.0 YPG, which would rank as the TE1 and the WR10. I hope the Lions fans enjoy that one.
46. Mark Andrews
TE3, BAL (-10)
Though Andrews scored multiple TDs this week, his underlying usage still wasn't great (8.6 XFP), and Zay Flowers still has more first-reads and air yards in games they've been active together. I'd be tempted to use the big week to sell for Sam LaPorta and a healthy plus.
47. Tua Tagovailoa
QB7, MIA (-5)
Justin Fields having the best passing performance of his NFL career against the Broncos (epic second-half meltdown and game-ending turnover notwithstanding) makes it hard not to re-examine any conclusions we drew about Tagovailoa after his similarly electric performance against them a week earlier. But even if you throw out the Broncos game (which did happen, and does count), Tagovailoa is still averaging 19.1 FPG (would rank 11th) on a masterfully efficient 9.06 YPA (would rank 2nd).
48. D'Andre Swift
RB17, PHI (+Previously Outside Top-50)
Though his opportunity shares haven't been earth-shattering in games Kenneth Gainwell has been healthy, Swift ranks 5th in rushing YPG (91.0), and is clearly being set up to succeed. He has the 3rd-most rushing attempts with six or fewer men in the box, on which he's averaging nearly 6.0 YPC.
49. Breece Hall
RB18, NYJ (+Previously Outside Top-50)
Hall is reportedly no longer on a snap count going forward. Michael Carter received only one rushing attempt in Week 4, and Hall would hope to take over his 25.4% route share as well. Dalvin Cook is averaging 2.5 YPC, and no Jets RB aside from Hall has any runs of over 15 yards this year. Hopefully, the Jets are serious about making a change.
50. Deebo Samuel
WR22, SF (-6)
In his typical fashion, Samuel ranks second among qualifying WRs in missed tackles forced per reception (0.47), but just 40th in first-read target share (22.6%) and 59th in air yards share (20.8%) in games where Brandon Aiyuk was active.
Just outside the top-50
Jakobi Meyers, Rachaad White, James Conner, Brian Robinson, DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, Michael Pittman, Dameon Pierce
Top Buy Recommendations
1. Puka Nacua, WR, LAR – With Cooper Kupp potentially returning this week (even if, as I said, it sounds a little sketchy), now is the time to test whoever in your league was fortunate enough to snag Nacua. He has the most receiving yards, targets, and receptions through his first four career games of any WR in NFL history. It’s not at all a given that Kupp outproduces Nacua when they’re on the field together, especially if he winds up playing at less than 100%.
2. James Cook, RB, BUF – In separate games, we’ve now seen Cook dominate work between the 20s (from Weeks 1-3) and dominate work inside the 5-yard line (in Week 4). If there’s any chance of him putting both roles together at once, we’re looking at a true bell cow on a top-5 offense that you can currently get for RB2 prices. Paying the market rate for a player with upside not all managers may see (because of the pedestrian box score) seems like a savvy move.
Top Sell Recommendations
1. Mike Evans, WR, TB – As I mentioned, there’s more risk with Evans as an injured older WR than many of the players you could currently trade him for. He could well continue balling out, but I’d rather swap him out for a similarly productive player with fewer questions. I’d love to swap him for any RB I have ranked from RB5 through RB9 or an elite QB, depending on roster need.
2. Mark Andrews, TE, BAL – Andrews’ two-TD game should ensure you’re able to sell him much higher than I have him ranked. His usage is within 1.0 XFP/G of Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, and Jake Ferguson. I wouldn’t be too worried about it if he weren’t in an entirely new offense that utilized WRs significantly more. Maybe his volume improves from here, but that’s a risk you don’t have to take if you cash out value now.
