Week 10 Fantasy Big Board: Rest-of-Season Trade Value

Attention all fantasy football trade addicts: this article is for you. Here, I’ll be re-ranking the top 50 most valuable players each week, with PPR scoring in mind. You can use these rankings and writeups to make informed roster and trade decisions heading into Week 10.

These are my personal rankings, which will often differ (sometimes significantly) from consensus. If I have a player ranked higher than you believe most in your league would, I’d recommend buying that player at market price – not starting negotiations where I have the player ranked.

We had another week featuring many injuries and significant usage swings, leading to some major shake-ups in the top 50. I’ve also begun weighing players’ remaining schedules more heavily, especially as a way to organize within tiers. I view my 34th through 50th-ranked players as one giant tier, so I wouldn’t argue against certain contrary trades if the positional need or the risk tolerance of your roster calls for playing a bit differently.

As always, you’ll find the player’s positive or negative movement from the week before in parentheses.

1. Christian McCaffrey

RB1, SF (0)

McCaffrey has averaged an 82.9% snap share (RB2) and 67.0% route share (RB2) over the past month in the NFL's best-schemed run game. He's overperformed his volume-based expectation by +5.8 FPG this year — duh, he's Christian McCaffrey — but his two top-12 playoff matchups by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed mean I don’t care to worry about regression. He’s still RB1.

2. Austin Ekeler

RB2, LAC (+4)

Though this Chargers offense still lacks a true downfield element, that is good in theory for Ekeler. He continued his monopoly on goal line work while punching in two scores against the Jets, and is looking forward to perhaps the best fantasy playoff schedule of any RB. He faces the Raiders (4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs), Bills (7th-most), and Broncos (most).

3. Ja'Marr Chase

WR1, CIN (0)

A down game from Chase in which he still led the team with a 23.3% first-read target share despite being hampered by a back injury is not going to make me blink. Chase leads all WRs in XFP/G (21.0), and it seems unlikely he'll miss time.

4. A.J. Brown

WR2, PHI (+1)

Brown leads all WRs in air yards (1,230) and just lost some target competition in Dallas Goedert. He faces the Seahawks (7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs) and Cardinals (12th-most, and 3rd-most to outside WRs) in the fantasy playoffs.

5. Tyreek Hill

WR3, MIA (-3)

There's little daylight between Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, and A.J. Brown aside from their remaining schedules. In the fantasy playoffs, Hill faces the Jets (fewest schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs), Cowboys (5th-fewest), and Ravens (9th-fewest). He still has blow-up potential in all of those spots, but I'll slightly prefer Chase and Brown (who are seeing similar usage and are capable of similar output on similarly explosive offenses) for that reason.

6. Travis Kelce

TE1, KC (-2)

The Chiefs seemed uninterested in using Kelce in Europe, with the star TE regressing to a 67.6% route share (lowest since Week 6) and seeing only four targets for negative five air yards. This was likely the result of a conservative game plan in which the Chiefs nursed a lead in the second half, but as noted with Mahomes below, Kansas City’s dominant defense is a serious problem for fantasy managers this year.

7. Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR4, DET (+1)

Only A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb have averaged more FPG or receiving YPG than St. Brown over the last month. He faces a relatively difficult remaining schedule for a slot WR, but he has run 46.1% of his routes from out wide this year, which should help him a lot in this week's matchup against the Chargers (4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to outside WRs) as well as against the Broncos (13th-most) and Vikings (10th-most) in the fantasy playoffs.

8. Stefon Diggs

WR5, BUF (-1)

The Bills playing from behind has worked pretty well for fantasy managers, as Diggs leads the league in routes run (155) over the last four weeks and has consistently maintained his 19.4 XFP/G workload (WR6) all season.

9. Justin Jefferson

WR6, MIN (+4)

Despite the recently-arrived Joshua Dobbs being forced to take over for an injured Jaren Hall mid-game, the Vikings pushed the pace and ran the 4th-most plays (74) of any team in Week 9. They weren't quite as pass-heavy (+2.1% PROE) as they were with Kirk Cousins, but this seems like a perfectly fine environment for Jefferson to post WR1 fantasy performances. He doesn't seem like a lock to play this week, but fantasy managers should be fine with the Vikings playing it cautiously to ensure Jefferson is available in Weeks 15-17.

10. Keenan Allen

WR7, LAC (+1)

We now have a little distance between the current day and Allen's biggest performances, as he hasn't reached 20.0 fantasy points or XFP in any of the past three weeks. However, he still ranks 3rd in first-read target share (40.7%) over the past month and profiles as a WR1 by usage.

11. Travis Etienne Jr.

RB3, JAC (+1)

We've not received any update on Travis Etienne's minor ankle injury during the bye, so there's no reason to assume he won't continue seeing his 16.3 XFP/G (RB6) workload from the past month.

12. Jonathan Taylor

RB4, IND (+14)

Taylor was finally used as an unchallenged bell-cow in Week 9, ceding only 7 touches to Zack Moss and running a route on 67.9% of the Colts' dropbacks (RB1). Even with the committee, Taylor has averaged 15.8 XFP/G over the past month (RB9) and projects even better the rest of the way. He also faces the Raiders in Week 17, a top-5 matchup by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs.

13. CeeDee Lamb

WR8, DAL (+15)

Lamb has been on a tear over the past two weeks, averaging 28.2 XFP/G (WR1), a 41.1% first-read target share (WR1), and a 51.1% air yards share (WR6). So much for spreading the ball around.

14. Josh Jacobs

RB5, LV (+6)

Week 9 was the first game all season in which Jacobs exceeded his volume-based expectation. Any worries of a post-McDaniels role change were put to rest, as Jacobs played a 78.0% snap share and handled 76.5% of the team's carries, right in line with his season-long average.

15. Davante Adams

WR9, LV (-1)

Adams has just a 24.4% target share since Week 4 (WR18), but that goes up to 31.1% (would rank WR1 this season) in Aidan O'Connell's two starts. The Raiders will have to throw more than 25 times against teams who aren't the Giants, so I'm still confident Adams will post some big fantasy weeks this season.

16. Alvin Kamara

RB6, NO (-6)

Kendre Miller suffered yet another injury in Week 9, only further clearing the way for Kamara to continue dominating this backfield to the tune of 22.3 XFP/G (RB1). On the other hand, Taysom Hill stole away a season-high 11 carries in Week 9 to lead the team in rushing, Jamaal Williams' 41.9% snap share was nearly double what he saw the previous two weeks, and Kamara ran a route on only 44.4% of the team's dropbacks, his lowest mark since Week 5. Combine these usage cracks with the fact that every single one of the Saints' remaining opponents aside from the Buccaneers (Week 17) rank bottom-half by schedule-adjusted receiving FPG allowed to RBs, and I'm a little worried.

17. Breece Hall

RB7, NYJ (-2)

Though he is still dominating carries (80% team rush attempt share), Hall was back to evenly splitting routes with Michael Carter in Week 9 (23 to 23) after leading the backfield in route share each of the previous two weeks. Monday night was a reminder that the Jets' offense will rarely create scoring opportunities for Hall.

18. Derrick Henry

RB8, TEN (+28)

Henry is averaging 18.2 FPG over the past month (RB7), and it's now much more likely he keeps that pace up, with Will Levis looking quite capable of moving an offense through his first eight quarters of NFL action. Henry has averaged 18.1 XFP/G (RB6) in the Titans' wins this year, and there are only two more opponents currently over .500 remaining on the schedule.

19. Adam Thielen

WR10, CAR (-3)

Thielen dropped below a 20% weekly target share for the first time since Week 1, a fact made less surprising when considering the Colts have allowed the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to slot WRs. Thielen won’t have it much easier against the Bears (4th-fewest) this week, but he still ranks top-12 in XFP/G (17.3) over the last month.

20. Diontae Johnson

WR11, PIT (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Since returning from injury, Johnson has commanded a 36.9% first-read target share (would rank WR7 this year) and 19.8 XFP/G (WR6). He has also seen enough downfield usage (10.8 aDOT, 44.2% air yards share) to credibly be considered more than just a low-ceiling PPR option. The Steelers' passing game isn't one I'm clamoring to buy into (-1.5% PROE, 25th), but it's hard to ignore when a player with Johnson's history of production is seeing this type of volume.

21. Joe Mixon

RB9, CIN (-3)

Since the bye with Joe Burrow back to full health, Mixon has averaged 16.8 XFP/G (would rank RB8 this season) and 18.9 FPG (RB6) thanks to finally hitting the good side of touchdown variance. Back-end RB1 production seems more than realistic to expect rest-of-season.

22. D'Andre Swift

RB10, PHI (-3)

Swift has run a bit cold in the touchdown column over the past month, having punched in only one score on his eight attempts inside the 10-yard line. He has underperformed his XFP by -2.1 FPG in that timeframe.

23. Tony Pollard

RB11, DAL (-1)

In the Cowboys' three games this season that were decided by fewer than 20 points, Pollard is averaging a 70.0% snap share (would rank RB8), 13.6% target share (RB8), and 17.9 XFP/G (RB6). However, even in close games, Pollard has run unbelievably badly on touchdowns, having underperformed his volume-based expectation by -4.7 FPG over the past month. Some might even say he's our generation's Josh Jacobs.

24. Chris Olave

WR12, NO (-3)

I’m going to tilt about this all year. No further comments.

25. Saquon Barkley

RB12, NYG (-16)

With Daniel Jones out for the season and Tyrod Taylor on IR, the Giants are left without a prayer on offense, which will make it tough for Barkley to find much running room for the rest of the season. Barkley has only two opponents remaining on his schedule ranking outside of the 10 toughest defenses by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to RBs, including brutal matchups against the Eagles and Rams in the fantasy playoffs. I'm seeing what I can get for Barkley right now.

26. De'Von Achane

RB13, MIA (+7)

Thanks to a positive update from Mike McDaniel, we can now be relatively certain Achane will return following the Dolphins' bye this week. Raheem Mostert hasn't done much of late that should prevent Achane from picking up where he left off in taking over this backfield, having run a route on 52.4% of the team's dropbacks and received five of the backfield's seven opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his last two games.

27. Puka Nacua

WR13, LAR (-4)

Matthew Stafford is expected back after the Rams' bye this week. However, he could be less effective as a passer depending on how well he's able to grip the ball, and Nacua's workload has not been decent but not outstanding in games with Stafford and Kupp healthy (16.4 XFP/G, would rank WR14).

28. Cooper Kupp

WR14, LAR (-4)

Kupp's usage with Matthew Stafford (16.2 XFP/G) has been nearly identical to Puka Nacua's, so they remain ranked back-to-back.

29. Jaylen Waddle

WR15, MIA (-12)

On his trip to Europe, Waddle saw only three catchable targets and ran six fewer routes than Cedrick Wilson while playing through a knee injury. Waddle faces the same difficult remaining schedule as Tyreek Hill, so it's hard to be overly optimistic.

30. Tee Higgins

WR16, CIN (+10)

Higgins is averaging 89.5 receiving YPG in the two games since the Bengals' bye and just hit a season-high 84.8% route share. A now-healthy Higgins looks to be a solid fantasy producer going forward.

31. Jalen Hurts

QB1, PHI (-2)

Hurts has scored 20.0 or more fantasy points in each of his past eight games and is averaging a league-leading 8.3 XFP/G from rushing. His six TDs on QB sneaks this season is four more than any other signal-caller.

32. Joe Burrow

QB2, CIN (+3)

Burrow ranks as the fantasy QB4 (22.3 FPG) since Week 5. In the two games since his bye, Burrow is averaging 25.0 FPG and 5.5 rushing attempts per game, a mark only four QBs not currently confirmed to be out for the year (Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Joshua Dobbs) are besting this season.

33. Josh Allen

QB3, BUF (-3)

Though it hasn't translated as well to the win column as Bills fans would like, Allen leads all QBs in FPG (24.6) and fantasy points per dropback (0.61, min. 100 dropbacks) this year. He is also averaging the most FPG in losses of any healthy QB (23.5), so the Bills failing to dominate the AFC isn’t of big concern.

34. DeVonta Smith

WR17, PHI (+16)

Smith averaged a 25.3% target share (would rank WR17 this year) and 15.8 FPG (WR13) in five games without Dallas Goedert last year. As Goedert is an IR candidate, I'm treating Smith as a high-end WR2 for the next month.

35. Michael Pittman Jr.

WR18, IND (+6)

Josh Downs aggravated his knee injury and left the game, leaving Pittman to vacuum up a 42.1% first-read target share, his best mark since Week 2. Pittman has averaged 17.1 FPG in Gardner Minshew's starts (would rank WR11) and could now be in line for even more volume.

36. Marquise Brown

WR19, ARI (0)

With Kyler Murray set to start this week, Brown is finally set to capitalize on his solid WR2-level usage (15.6 XFP/G) and excellent playoff schedule in which he faces the Eagles (2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs) and 49ers (5th-most).

37. Garrett Wilson

WR20, NYJ (+6)

Wilson continues to command impossibly high target volume, leading the NFL in first-read target share this season (42.9%) and ranking behind only CeeDee Lamb in XFP/G over the past month (22.3). That has translated to only 16.2 FPG (WR12), and it's painfully clear Wilson would have destroyed fantasy football with Aaron Rodgers, but he has still vastly exceeded my post-Week 1 expectation.

38. Patrick Mahomes II

QB4, KC (-6)

The Chiefs have allowed only 15.9 points per game (2nd-fewest) and -0.098 EPA/play (5th-fewest) to their opponents. As a consequence, only 20.2% of Mahomes' dropbacks have occurred while trailing. Not even the Chiefs' +11.5% PROE (1st) has been enough to stop 77.8% of their games from going under their Vegas total, as there are few opponents capable of pushing the issue against the Chiefs. (Only the Steelers and Giants have seen their games go under more often). The Eagles may fare better than the Dolphins, but it's tough to envision Mahomes lighting up the fantasy scoreboard in easy-on-paper matchups against teams like the Raiders (twice), Packers, and Patriots.

39. Justin Herbert

QB5, LAC (-8)

Since losing Mike Williams in Week 3, Herbert has averaged just 17.7 FPG (QB14) and has thrown to his first read on only 62.1% of his attempts (26th among qualifying QBs).

40. Lamar Jackson

QB6, BAL (-6)

Jackson has a similar problem to Mahomes — that his team's strong defense keeps him out of shootouts. The Ravens are allowing just 13.8 points per game (the fewest in the NFL) and -0.183 EPA/play (2nd-fewest).

41. T.J. Hockenson

TE2, MIN (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Hockenson received a 33.3% target share in Week 9 courtesy of Joshua Dobbs, who was the architect of a 31.4% combined target share to Zach Ertz and Trey McBride before he was traded. Hockenson's 15.5 XFP/G (TE2) is now eerily close to Travis Kelce's (16.0) this season. Hockenson commanding a greater target share from Dobbs could more than offset the offensive environment downgrade.

42. Jahmyr Gibbs

RB14, DET (-3)

Lions HC Dan Campbell made it clear in this press conference that "Gibbs will get his touches" even with David Montgomery back, but that he doesn't see Gibbs getting "65 plays". We're all only guessing, but Campbell compliments Gibbs' progress multiple times in his answer, so Gibbs holding on to a slim touch majority with an emphasis on receiving work seems realistic. That's probably a high-end RB2 at best if Montgomery handles goal-line work, but Campbell said just enough here to leave me ranking Gibbs optimistically, even before considering contingent upside. I would check in on his price.

43. Bijan Robinson

RB15, ATL (-16)

Over their past four games, Tyler Allgeier has received a more valuable workload (11.1 XFP/G) than Robinson (10.5 XFP/G), thanks to Allgeier receiving every backfield carry inside the five-yard line over that span. It's hard to view Robinson much differently than Jahmyr Gibbs (on a worse offense) at this point — a supremely talented rookie carrying real upside, but for whom usage is a legitimate question the rest of the way.

44. Javonte Williams

RB16, DEN (-2)

Back in Week 8 before entering his bye, Williams saw season-highs in snap share (67.7%), rush attempt share (67.5%), and XFP (21.4) while playing on every snap inside the 10-yard line and receiving every backfield opportunity in that area of the field. Sean Payton sounds impressed with Williams' recent progress, suggesting more lead-back workloads could be in store for him. Williams is yet another player I’d be sending offers for this week if my roster needs to chase upside.

45. Kyren Williams

RB17, LAR (+4)

Sean McVay expects Williams back in Week 12. Matthew Stafford will have likely returned by then, so this Rams offense has a shot of being a more enticing fantasy environment than it was with Brett Rypien throwing for just 130 yards this past weekend. Williams is a sneaky buy at the moment, especially if his manager needs to make an immediate playoff push over the next two weeks. He was averaging 17.1 XFP/G (RB7) before his injury.

46. Brandon Aiyuk

WR21, SF (-9)

Deebo Samuel was back at practice this week. Aiyuk's production with him out over the past few games has been disappointing, but each of the 49ers' next four opponents ranks top-12 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs, so things will likely look up soon. Aiyuk is still the team's only downfield threat (47.1% air yards share over the past month, WR6).

47. DeAndre Hopkins

WR22, TEN (0)

Hopkins is averaging 15.3 XFP/G with Will Levis (would rank WR19) but is clearly capable of much greater spike weeks (see: three touchdowns in Week 8). With Levis keeping the starting job, Hopkins' 41.5% air yards share (WR6) suddenly looks a lot more attractive with a QB willing to throw deep on 23.5% of his pass attempts (QB1).

48. Amari Cooper

WR23, CLE (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Cooper's usage (15.6 XFP/G, WR17) has been solid all season, but his quarterback play has been dreadful. That seemed to change in Week 9 as Deshaun Watson returned to bless Cooper with a 100% catchable target rate and a 55.0% air yards share. He has as good a claim as any to a top-50 ranking but does have a rather tough playoff schedule, including a matchup with the Jets (fewest schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to WRs) in Week 17.

49. Kenneth Walker III

RB18, SEA (-24)

Zach Charbonnet has outsnapped Walker 56.9% to 45.1% over the past two games and has received 3 of the team's 4 red zone carries. The extreme negative game script last week no doubt contributed, but Walker no longer looks like a bell cow, and I'm not against selling low, given the series of difficult upcoming matchups he faces.

50. Rachaad White

RB19, TB (+Previously Outside Top-50)

Only six RBs (Alvin Kamara, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, and Travis Etienne) have averaged more XFP/G than White (16.2) over the past month. He's also ranked top-10 at the position in target share (13.9%) and snap share (79.5%) in that time. White is largely running a PPR scam when he doesn't succeed at the goal line, but the dearth of RB options this late in the season is a decent reason to push him up the rankings.

Just outside the top-50

David Montgomery, Mark Andrews, Jakobi Meyers, DK Metcalf, Aaron Jones, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Jordan Addison, James Conner, Alexander Mattison