Now that the dust has settled from the 2023 NFL Draft, it’s time to examine this year’s draft class for the upcoming fantasy season. The Fantasy Points staff already broke down which veteran players saw their stock rise and which players saw their stock fall for the 2023 season based on this year’s selections in our Veteran Market Watch.
Based on pre-draft expectations, let’s see which fantasy rookies are looking better and which rookies are looking worse for the upcoming season. I primarily focused on playing opportunities and a player’s supporting cast to determine if I’m feeling better or worse about each prospect for the 2023 fantasy season.
Note: The available carries and targets for running backs are courtesy of 4for4.
UPGRADES
Based on pre-draft expectations, rookies that I’m more optimistic about for the 2023 fantasy season because of potential playing opportunities and/or a strong supporting cast.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Selected: Eighth overall (RB1)
Competition: Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson
Available Carries: 2 (5th fewest)
Available RB Targets: 0
Positional value be damned! The Falcons spent top-10 draft capital to select Bijan to be their new workhorse back in an offense that ran the rock at the second-highest rate (55.3%) last season. Robinson is the best RB prospect to come into the league since the Giants selected Saquon Barkley with the second overall pick in 2018. As a true junior in 2022, he was a unanimous All-American and won the Doak Walker Award, which is given to the top running back in college football. He racked up 539/3410/33 rushing (6.3 YPC) and 60/805/8 receiving (13.4 YPR) in 31 games over three seasons, and he owned per-game averages of 150.7 scrimmage yards, 2.0 receptions, and 1.59 touchdowns in his final two years at Texas. Bijan finished with the class’ second-best SPORQ score at 92.5 (behind only Deneric Prince) thanks to a 4.46-second 40-yard dash, a 37” vertical, and a 10’4” broad jump at 5’11”, 215 pounds. Our Brett Whitefield believes Robinson is one of the best RB prospects in the last decade with few flaws in his game.
This landing spot doesn’t necessarily look the best on paper, with the Falcons losing just two carries and no targets from this backfield from last season. However, Atlanta didn’t exactly have a lot invested at running back, with 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier and 32-year-old return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson at the top of the depth chart. HC Arthur Smith used the eighth overall pick on Bijan, which means they have designs of using him as their bell-cow back from Week 1 in an offense that ranked second in rushing attempts per game (32.9). Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette (#4, 2017), and Ezekiel Elliott (#4, 2016) were the last three backs selected inside the top 10, and each posted 300+ touches and 1300+ scrimmage yards as rookies. The Falcons may want to avoid running Bijan into the ground as a rookie, and Allgeier played well at the end of his rookie campaign, so he could get a series per half, especially early in 2023. I’m also a little bit worried about Bijan’s pass-game role with Cordarrelle Patterson still on the roster. Falcons RBs notably saw the fifth-fewest targets (66) last season, and they’ll open the season with the inexperienced Desmond Ridder at quarterback Bijan didn’t land in the perfect situation, but it’s pretty darn close in an NFL landscape loaded with backfield committees. Don’t hesitate to draft him in the late first round in all formats, and he’s in the mix for the overall 1.01 in dynasty startups.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
- Selected: 12th overall (RB2)
- Competition: David Montgomery
- Available Carries: 403 (most)
- Available RB Targets: 105 (most)
The Lions stunned the league on Day 1 of the draft by selecting Gibbs at #12 overall, which spelled the end of D’Andre Swift’s tenure in Detroit. Bijan Robinson was the best all-around back in this year’s RB class, but Gibbs could be the biggest difference-maker as a receiver. He opened his career with 232/1206/8 rushing (5.2 YPC) and 59/768/5 receiving (13.0 YPR) in 19 games at Georgia Tech in 2020-21 before transferring to Alabama for his true junior campaign. He turned in 151/926/7 rushing (6.1 YPC) and 44/444/3 receiving (10.1 YPR) in 12 contests, posting per-game averages of 114.2 scrimmage yards, 3.7 receptions, and .83 touchdowns for the Crimson Tide. Gibbs checked in at just 5’9”, 199 pounds with a disappointing 33.5” vertical jump at the Combine, but he ran a blistering 4.36-second 40-yard dash. Our Brett Whitefield believes Gibbs has too much ability as a receiver to overshadow his lack of size.
The Lions clearly coveted Gibbs at the top of the draft based on GM Brad Holmes’ enthusiastic reaction to landing the versatile Bama back. Gibbs landed in a Lions backfield that had the most carries (403) and targets (105) became available with Swift and Jamaal Williams vacating this backfield. Freshly signed David Montgomery figures to step into Williams’ old role as the early-down runner and goal-line back. Gibbs will take the place of Swift as the team’s passing back and as a change-of-pace runner. Swift had an incredibly disappointing 2022 based on his second-round ADP, but he surprisingly still finished as the RB16 with 13.7 FPG. He cleared 46+ receptions and 350+ receiving yards in each of his three seasons with the Lions. Swift averaged 9.3 carries per game (36% share), 5.5 targets per game (17%), and 74.0 scrimmage YPG over his 27 healthy contests under Dan Campbell’s coaching staff in 2021-22. Montgomery is a bigger threat as a receiver than Williams was last season, but the Lions also clearly love Gibbs way more than Swift, whom they severely soured on over the course of the last two years. The Lions owned the league’s fifth-highest scoring offense (26.7), and their offensive line projects to be one of the NFL’s best for the second straight year. Gibbs has a real chance to average 10+ carries and 3+ receptions per game, and that’s if Montgomery stays available all season — he’s missed four games the last two seasons. Gibbs is a player to target in the third or fourth round, and his momentum should continue to build once August comes around.
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
- Selected: 71st overall (RB4)
- Competition: Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams
- Available Carries: 88 (t16th most)
- Available RB Targets: 25 (13th fewest)
The Saints continued to brace for an Alvin Kamara suspension, drafting Miller in the third round after signing Jamaal Williams at the start of free agency. Miller split time with fellow 2022 RB classmate Zach Evans during his first two seasons at TCU, but Evans transferred to Mississippi in 2022 to clear the way for Miller. He finished with 224/1399/17 rushing (6.2 YPC) and 16/116/0 receiving (7.3 YPR) for per-game averages of 108.2 scrimmage yards, 1.1 receptions, and 1.21 touchdowns. Miller checked in at 5’11”, 215 pounds at the Combine, but he was unable to work out in the pre-draft process because of an MCL injury in the CFP semifinals, which required surgery. Our Brett Whitefield believes Miller can be an early-down contributor because of his elite ability to force missed tackles.
The Saints are bringing back Mark Ingram’s old early-down role, with Kamara taking a significant step back, especially as a runner. He averaged just 3.9 YPC in 2021-22 after owning a 5.0 YPC average in 2017-20. Miller will compete with Williams for early-down carries right out of the gates, with Kamara sliding into a passing-back role after topping 170+ carries in each of his last five seasons. Williams has the inside track for goal-line work after he led the NFL with 17 rushing TDs, which means Miller doesn’t have a great path to standalone fantasy production if this backfield remains status quo. Of course, that’s all contingent on Kamara playing this season, or ever again, for that matter — his felony battery charge could result in one to five years in prison. Kamara’s trial is slated to begin on July 31, so we could get some sort of resolution to his playing status by the start of the season. The Saints are concerned enough with Kamara’s status to spend $8.2 million guaranteed on Williams and a third-round pick on a RB in the draft. Miller is blocked from valuable touches at the goal line and in the passing game for the time being, but his fortunes could change quickly late this summer.
Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins
- Selected: 84th overall (RB6
- Competition: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson
- Available Carries: 42 (t10th fewest),
- Available RB Targets: 17 (10th fewest)
The Dolphins have a need for speed, adding Achane (4.32-second 40-yard dash) to an offense that already had Tyreek Hill (4.29), Raheem Mostert (4.34), and Jaylen Waddle (unofficial 4.37). Achane landed at Texas A&M after winning the 2020 Texas Gatorade Track & Field Athlete of the Year, and he burst onto the scene by winning the Orange Bowl MVP as a true freshman. His role grew in his final two seasons, posting 326/2012/17 rushing (6.2 YPC) and 60/457/4 receiving (7.6 YPR) for per-game averages of 112.2 scrimmage yards, 3.3 receptions, and .95 touchdowns. Achane blazed a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the combine, but he checked in at just 5’8”, 188 pounds, and registered just a 33” vertical jump. Our Brett Whitefield believes Achane will never be a high-volume running back, but he has elite skills in the passing game and is dangerous in the open field with his explosiveness and elusiveness.
This landing spot doesn’t appear to be too appealing on paper, with the Dolphins losing just 42 carries and 17 targets from this backfield from last season. However, the Dolphins handed out just less than $5 million in guaranteed money to retain both Mostert and Jeff Wilson after piecing their backfield together last season. Mostert is entering his age-31 season with a laundry list of injuries, while Wilson is little more than a J.A.G. at the position. The Dolphins selected Achane with the 84th overall pick, so it’s safe to assume creative play-caller Mike McDaniel has some sort of plan in place to get Achane weekly designed touches. The problem is Achane’s pint-sized frame (5’9”, 188 pounds) could prevent him from biting off a big workload. There’s a chance Achane is stuck in a complementary/gadget role in 2023 and beyond, but he has the most upside of the RBs selected on Days 2-3 if he can handle 10+ touches per game in a backfield that’s relatively up for grabs.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Selected: 88th overall (RB7)
- Competition: Travis Etienne, JaMycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson
- Available Carries: 81 (14th fewest)
- Available RB Targets: 11 (7th fewest)
The Jacksonville Jaguars owned nine picks heading into the draft, so they weren’t leaving without a running back to play behind Travie Etienne, and they found their guy in Bigsby in the third round. Tank burst onto the scene with 920 scrimmage yards on just 149 touches in 10 games to win the SEC Freshman of the Year. He failed to take a step forward in his final two seasons at Auburn, finishing with 540/2903/25 rushing (5.4 YPC) and 62/448/0 receiving (7.2 YPR) overall for per-game averages of 95.7 scrimmage yards, 1.77 receptions, and 1.0 touchdowns. Bigsby checked in at 6’0”, 210 pounds at the combine but underwhelmed a bit with a 4.56-second 40-time, a 32.5” vertical jump, and a 9’11” broad jump. Our Brett Whitefield believes Bigsby can be an early-down workhorse back but needs to develop in the passing game.
The Jaguars had only JaMycal Hasty and D’Ernest Johnson behind Etienne before the draft, which means Bigsby could quickly rise to the #2 RB spot. HC Doug Pederson wanted James Robinson to be the team’s primary runner early last season, but Jacksonville’s coaching staff quickly turned the page on him when he lacked the same explosiveness he once showed before his 2021 Achilles injury. J-Rob out-touched Etienne 57 to 33 in the first three games in 2022 before they pulled back on Robinson’s role. Etienne was seeing his professional work at the time after missing his entire rookie campaign to a foot injury, but it still shows there could be room for a bigger role than expected for Bigsby. He could steal some early-down work from Etienne, and goal-line work could be up for grabs. Etienne scored just five touchdowns on 255 touches (1.9%), including only four rushing scores on 40 carries inside the 20-yard line (10%). Bigsby is unlikely to be a factor as a receiver even if Etienne misses time — Hasty would be elevated into a passing-down role — which will keep him from being a true handcuff. Bigsby could see immediate carries and has some touchdown upside to give him some hope as a late-round pick in best ball formats.
Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears
- Selected: 115th overall (RB8)
- Competition: Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, Travis Homer
- Available Carries: 201 (6th most)
- Available RB Targets: 40 (14th most)
The Bears let David Montgomery walk to Detroit in free agency, and they appear ready to use a backfield-committee approach after drafting Johnson in the fourth round. He arrived at Texas as a four-star quarterback recruit but moved to running back as a freshman because of injuries at the position. He then found himself behind the class’ best running back prospect, Bijan Robinson, for the final three seasons of his Texas career. Overall, he finished with 392/2190/23 rushing (5.6 YPC) and 56/420/3 receiving (7.5 YPR) in 47 career games. Johnson disappointed with a 31.5” vertical jump and a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6’0”, 219 pounds at the combine, but he added an impressive 10’2” broad jump. Our Brett Whitefield believes Johnson’s light usage at Texas could benefit him as he heads into the league as a physical, downhill runner.
Khalil Herbert is the favorite for touches heading into training camp after the Bears added only D’Onta Foreman on a one-year deal with $1 million guaranteed and Travis Homer on a two-year deal with $1.8 million guaranteed. Whitefield called Johnson “David Montgomery 2.0,” and he has room for immediate upward mobility. The problem is the upside of this backfield is capped a bit because of dual-threat QB Justin Fields. He did open up plenty of running lanes, with the Bears leading the league in YPC at 5.4 yards, but the Bears had the second-fewest RB targets (62), and Field stole eight rushing TDs in 2022. Johnson has a path to significant snaps and touches in what should be a wide-open backfield competition in training camp. It’s tough to get too excited about a backfield that’s going to use a committee approach that’s playing with Fields, but Johnson’s situation could certainly be worse.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
- Selected: 163rd overall (RB10)
- Competition: Joe Mixon, Chris Evans, Traveon Williams
- Available Carries: 95 (13th most)
- Available RB Targets: 51 (8th most)
Joe Mixon is seemingly hanging on by a thread in Cincinnati because of his declining play, his large contract, and multiple run-ins with the law. He made it through the draft relatively unscathed, with the Bengals waiting until the fifth round to address their major need at running back. Brown started his career at Western Michigan in 2018 before transferring to Illinois and eventually becoming their go-to back in his final two seasons. He posted 498/2648/15 rushing (5.3 YPC) and 41/382/3 receiving (9.3 YPR) in 2021-22 for per-game averages of 137.7 scrimmage yards, 1.9 receptions, and .82 touchdowns. Brown finished with the RB class’ third-best SPORQ score at 85.9 thanks to a 4.44-second 40-yard dash, a 40” vertical, and a 10’7” broad jump at 5’10”, 209 pounds. Our Brett Whitefield believes Brown has a chance to be a lead back in the right system and, at the very least, his speed will make him a rotational back with upside.
HC Zac Taylor gave Mixon a small vote of confidence after selecting Brown, stating: “His future is here with the team. I like Joe Mixon.” The Bengals could save more than $7.3 million in 2023 by releasing Mixon, but the franchise appears prepared to stick with him for at least one more season. Cincinnati still has a huge void to fill since three-down backup Samaje Perine bolted for Denver in free agency, and Brown has the chance to grab Perine’s valuable handcuff role. Perine ranked as the RB2 behind only Josh Jacobs in Weeks 11-13, with Mixon mostly out of the lineup, averaging 23.7 FPG and turning in 82+ scrimmage yards and 19+ FP in each game. Brown has the chance to be a home-run-hitting chance-of-pace runner behind Mixon, and he’s got a touch of upside if he can be Cincinnati’s handcuff. Mixon also played poorly enough at the end of last season to find himself in a timeshare with Perine in the postseason. Brown has an outside chance of grabbing an even bigger role if Mixon’s play keeps declining, which makes Brown worth a late-round pick in best-ball leagues.
Israel Abanikanda, New York Jets
Selected: 143rd overall (RB9)
Competition: Breece Hall, Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight
Available Carries: 59 (12th fewest)
Available RB Targets: 27 (16th fewest)
The Lions surprised the league when they selected Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall, and they made the bold move because the Jets had their eyes set on him at 15th overall. New York held off adding to its backfield until Day 3 after missing out on Gibbs, selecting Abanikanda with its fourth selection. Abanikanda landed at Pitt as a three-star recruit from Brooklyn and became the focal point of the offense as a true junior last season with Kenny Pickett departing for the NFL. He broke Tony Dorsett’s single-game rushing yards record with 320 yards and tied an ACC record with six rushing TDs against Virginia Tech in 2022, which propelled him to first-team All-American honors. He totaled 239/1431/20 rushing (5.6 YPC) and 12/146/1 receiving (8.9 YPR) in 2022 for per-game averages of 143.4 scrimmage yards and 1.90 touchdowns. Abanikanda checked in at 5’11”, 216 pounds at the combine, and he recorded strong marks in the 40-yard dash (4.44 seconds), vertical jump (41”), and broad jump (10’8”) on his pro day. Our Brett Whitefield believes Abanikanda is a physical early-down runner with a great athletic profile to improve as a receiver.
The Jets wanted to add to their backfield during the draft, with Breece Hall coming off a torn ACL in late October and Michael Carter’s production nosediving in his second season. Zonovan Knight was a pleasant surprise for the Jets in Weeks 12-14, but he started to play like a UDFA back when the sample size got larger in his final four games. Abanikanda has a path to be the team’s #2 if Carter doesn’t show signs of improvement in training camp, which could mean additional early-season work. Hall is trending toward being ready for Week 1, but the Jets are likely to ease him back into his heavy workload — he reached 19+ touches in each of his final three full games. Abanikanda is unlikely to see a massive weekly workload, with Hall set to be a bell-cow option when back to full health. Breece still isn’t guaranteed to get back to 100%, and there’s certainly an opportunity for Israel to quickly rise on this weak depth chart behind him.
DOWNGRADES
Based on pre-draft expectations, rookies that I’m less optimistic about for the 2023 fantasy season because of a lack of playing opportunities and/or a weak supporting cast.
Running Backs
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
- Selected: 52nd overall (RB3)
- Competition: Kenneth Walker
- Available Carries: 84 (15th fewest)
- Available RB Targets: 29 (15th most)
The Seahawks value running backs more than other franchises, selecting both Kenneth Walker (2022) and Rashaad Penny (2018) inside the first two rounds over the last six years. HC Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider couldn’t resist doing it again, selecting Charbonnet with the 52nd overall pick. He began his career stuck in a committee with Hassan Haskins at Michigan in 2019-20 before bolting to become the guy in Chip Kelly’s UCLA backfield for his final two seasons, where he earned first-team All-American honors. He totaled 398/2496/27 rushing (6.3 YPC) and 61/518/0 receiving (8.5 YPR) in 22 games for the Bruins, finishing with per-game averages of 137.0 scrimmage yards, 2.8 receptions, and 1.23 touchdowns. Charbonnet had a solid showing at the combine with a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, a 10’2” broad jump, and a 37” vertical jump at 6’0”, 214 pounds. Our Brett Whitefield believes Charbonnet will be an early-down runner who will punish defenders with his physical downhill running style.
The Seahawks pulled a bit of a stunner by using a second-round pick on Charbonnet, but it’s not as shocking if you check out Seattle’s non-existent depth chart behind KWIII. Seattle has also dealt with some bad injury luck at the position since Marshawn Lynch was dominating in the early 2010s, so they didn’t want to leave themselves exposed if KWIII misses time this season. Charbonnet is built (6’2”, 220 pounds) to be a downhill runner and a goal-line option, and he’s also more accomplished as a receiver than Walker was coming out of college. With Charbonnet in the mix, it’s difficult to envision Walker duplicating his 226 touches and eight touchdowns from the final 11 games after Penny’s season-ending injury. Seattle also drafted Kenny McIntosh in the seventh round, who will compete for work in passing situations. Charbonnet should start the season by getting a series or two in each half, with the chance to take on a bigger role as the season moves along. Seattle’s pick crushed the fantasy value of both Walker and Charbonnet in 2023, and Charbonnet is unlikely to have much standalone fantasy value unless he earns goal-line or passing-game snaps.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
- Selected: 81st overall (RB5)
- Competition: Derrick Henry, Hassan Haskins
- Available Carries: 22 (7th fewest)
- Available RB Targets: 26 (14th fewest)
Spears landed in the third round as the fifth RB off the board, but he finds himself in the same backfield as carry-hog Derrick Henry.
Spears came to Tulane as a three-star recruit in 2019 and left as the 2022 American Athletic Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year and as the Cotton Bowl Offensive MVP in his final game for the Green Wave. He had his 2020 campaign derailed by a torn ACL, but he rebounded for 358/2444/28 rushing (6.8 YPC) and 41/401/2 receiving (9.8 YPR) the last two seasons for per-game averages of 109.4 scrimmage yards, 1.6 receptions, and 1.15 touchdowns. Spears posted an impressive 39” vertical jump and a 10’5” broad jump at 5’10”, 201 pounds at the combine. Our Brett Whitefield believes Spears comes into the league with one of the cleaner profiles at the position who brings explosive play-making in both the run and pass game.
The Titans tried to find a strong complement and a potential eventual replacement for Henry when they drafted Darrynton Evans in the third round in 2020. They’re hoping this year’s third-round RB works out a little better after constant injuries limited Evans to just 20 touches in six games with the Titans in 2020-21. Spears comes into the league with massive durability concerns after Go Long’s Bob McGinn reported that Spears doesn’t have an ACL in one of his knees after a pair of surgeries. The Titans have just 22 carries available, with Henry set to dominate touches in this backfield once again. Henry is averaging a ridiculous 22.7 carries per game for a carry share of 77.5% over the last four seasons. There’s been little room for another RB to make noise in Tennessee, but one of the years, Henry is going to slow down a bit. The Titans are preparing for that day, and drafting Spears in the third round is a sign they could lighten his load a bit with Spears rotating in some as a complementary back. Spears is unlikely to get enough work to have standalone value, and he isn’t a lock to land early-down carries if Henry misses time, with Hassan Haskins potentially grabbing that role.
