The NFL off-season continues to speed by since the start of the 2023 league year in mid-March, which saw a number of marquee players switch teams in free agency and through trades — catch up on all of the key skill position movement. I recently broke down the shifting Super Bowl LVIII odds following the first 10 days of the new league year and revealed my initial Power Rankings for the upcoming season. We’re about a month away from the NFL Draft but, with most of the major free agency moves out of the way, the 2023 NFL season win totals for all 32 teams are starting to trickle out across a number of sportsbooks.
The Kansas City Chiefs own the league’s best odds to win the Lombardi Trophy at +650, and they’re pacing the six teams with double-digit win totals at 11.5 victories (-105 to the over). The Cincinnati Bengals are also sitting at 11.5 wins (-105), while the San Francisco 49ers are pacing the NFC at 11.5 wins (+110), even with the team heading toward a three-way QB battle in training camp. The books have pegged the Arizona Cardinals as the league’s worst team at 5.5 wins (+110), closely followed by the Houston Texans at 5.5 (-110).
The retooled Chicago Bears are expected to have the NFL’s biggest turnaround, with their total sitting 4.5 wins higher than their league-worst 3-14 record from last season. For the second straight year, the Denver Broncos are projected to have the second biggest turnaround, with their total sitting 3.5 wins higher than their 5-12 record from 2022. The Minnesota Vikings are facing by far the biggest potential downturn, with their total sitting 4.5 wins below their 13-4 record from last season. The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to have the second biggest dropoff, with their total sitting 3.5 wins below their 14-3 record from 2022.
On the Two-Point Stance Podcast, I talked in-depth with Joe Dolan and Brian Drake about the 2023 initial win totals, now let’s see if we can add any wagers to our Best Bets portfolio.
2023 NFL Season Win Totals
The odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 30.
| Team | Win Total (O/U) | 2022 Record (ATS) | SB Odds |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 (-105/-115) | 14-3 (5-11-1) | +650 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 (-105/-115) | 12-4 (12-3-1) | +850 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 (+110/-130) | 13-4 (11-6) | +700 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 (-150/+120) | 14-3 (8-9) | +750 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 (-140/+115) | 13-3 (8-7-1) | +850 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.5 (+115/-140) | 9-8 (8-8-1) | +2800 |
| Detroit Lions | 9.5 (-150/+120) | 9-8 (12-5) | +2500 |
| New York Jets | 9.5 (-130/+110) | 7-10 (8-9) | +1400 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 (-125/+105) | 12-5 (9-7-1) | +1400 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 (-125/+105) | 10-7 (11-5-1) | +2500 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 (+100/-120) | 9-8 (9-8) | +2500 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (+105/-125) | 7-10 (7-10) | +3500 |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.5 (+115/-140) | 7-10 (8-9) | +3500 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (-150/+120) | 10-7 (6-9-2) | +2500 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 (-130/+110) | 13-4 (7-9-1) | +4500 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 (-120/+100) | 9-8 (10-6-1) | +5500 |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 (-110/-110) | 5-12 (7-10) | +2500 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 (-105/-115) | 9-8 (7-10) | +7000 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (+105/-125) | 9-7-1 (13-4) | +4000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7.5 (-120/+100) | 5-12 (7-9-1) | +6000 |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 (-120/+100) | 3-14 (5-11-1) | +5000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (-120/+100) | 7-10 (9-8) | +5500 |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 (-120/+100) | 8-9 (7-9-1) | +6000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 (+100/-120) | 7-10 (9-8) | +7500 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 (+105/-125) | 7-10 (9-6-2) | +8000 |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 (+120/-150) | 8-8-1 (8-8-1) | +6000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 (+120/-150) | 6-11 (8-9) | +4000 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 (+120/-150) | 8-9 (8-9) | +3500 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 (-140/+115) | 4-12-1 (6-11) | +15000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 (-110/-110) | 8-9 (4-12-1) | +6500 |
| Houston Texans | 5.5 (-110/-110) | 3-13-1 (8-8-1) | +20000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (+110/-130) | 4-13 (8-9) | +20000 |
Schedule Notes
- AFC teams have nine home games and eight road games in 2023, while NFC teams have eight home games and nine road games.
Division Matchups
- AFC East — AFC West and NFC East
- AFC North — AFC South and NFC West
- AFC South — AFC North and NFC South
- AFC West — AFC East and NFC North
- NFC East — NFC West and AFC East
- NFC North — NFC South and AFC West
- NFC South — NFC North and AFC South
- NFC West — NFC East and AFC South
Bets I’m Considering
New York Jets Under 9.5 wins (+115, Caesars)
Aaron Rodgers plans to continue his career in New York, and the Packers and Jets are playing a game of chicken for the time being as they iron out the final terms of the deal. The Jets will go from near league-worst quarterback play with Zach Wilson and company last season to a four-time NFL MVP. It’s easy to see why there’s quite a bit of optimism in New York since the Jets had a Super Bowl-caliber defense led by Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams last season. They’ll also get young studs Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker back in the fold after season-ending injuries last year so, on paper, the Jets look frontrunners in the conference. However, Rodgers is coming off a sub-par campaign, averaging an ugly 6.8 YPA with a 4.8 TD rate and a 2.2% INT rate, and hiring Nathaniel Hackett and Todd Downing to run the offense inspires no confidence.
The Jets have six games in the NFL’s toughest division, with additional matchups against the AFC West and NFC East. The Jets have Lombardi Trophy upside if Rodgers returns to his MVP form from two years ago, but I’m skeptical he’ll be able to do it. It’s noteworthy that the Packers wanted nothing to do with him after the 2022 season, and the franchise had already moved on internally to Jordan Love. Rodgers has also notably struggled to get on the same page with new receivers. I’m not in a rush to bet this under at the moment until I see the final trade details, and since I think the public will flock to bet the Jets over their win total.
Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5 wins (-105, DraftKings)
Seattle crushed low preseason expectations in 2022, besting their total by 3.5 victories with a 9-8 record. They did it thanks to Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year performance, and the Seahawks were able to retain him on an extremely team-friendly deal with just $40 million guaranteed over three seasons. The Seahawks didn’t have any major losses in free agency, and they significantly improved their defense by landing DT Dre’Mont Jones, LB Bobby Wagner, DT Jarran Reed, and S Julian Love. Seattle is still reaping the rewards from the Russell Wilson trade with picks No. 5, 20, 37, and 52 in the first two rounds to further bolster its roster.
The Seahawks will square off twice against the Cardinals, whom sportsbooks pegged as the NFL’s worst team in late March, and the Rams, who spent the off-season resetting their roster and finances. They didn’t catch any breaks with matchups against the NFC East and AFC North, but they landed extra matchups against the Panthers and Titans. HC Pete Carroll has a long track record of success dating back to when he turned USC into a perennial title contender, and he owns an 8-4-1 win total record in his 13 seasons with the Seahawks. The Seahawks are the clear second-best team in the NFC West, and they could contend for the NFC West title if the 49ers can’t figure out their quarterback situation. I grabbed the Seahawks at +550 to win the division in early March — they’re down to +275 at DraftKings — and I like the Seahawks to clear their 8.5 win total, as well
Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 wins (-115, Caesars)
Betting on the Steelers to finish with a below .500 record has been a losing proposition since Mike Tomlin became head coach in 2007. Pittsburgh looked destined for its first losing campaign under Tomlin in his 16th season as head coach with a 2-6 start, but the Steelers closed out the season with a 7-2 stretch that included a four-game winning streak to squeeze out a winning record. Pittsburgh is in the position to improve this off-season with picks #17 and #32 in the draft, and they’ve made a number of under-the-radar moves to bolster their roster by signing the likes of OG Isaac Seumalo, CB Patrick Peterson, and LB Cole Holcomb. Pittsburgh’s biggest concerns come in the secondary after CB Cam Sutton and S Terrell Edmunds bolted in free agency, and they’re widely expected to use one of their top picks at cornerback.
Kenny Pickett showed why he was selected in the first round with consecutive game-winning drives in Weeks 16-17, but he also showed why he lasted until the 20th overall pick by averaging just 6.2 YPA with more INTs (9) than TDs (7). He finished ahead of only Zach Wilson in QB rating at 76.7, but he should see a second-year bump along with George Pickens, who was a highlight-reel receiver as a rookie. Pittsburgh gets no breaks playing in the AFC North, but they will match up against the AFC South in addition to three winnable extra matchups (@LV, NE, GB). I’d feel much better about betting this over if Matt Canada wasn’t still calling the offense after orchestrating the 26th-ranked scoring offense (18.1 PPG) in 2022, but Tomlin’s 7-2 record in the last nine years to the “over” on Steelers’ win totals is mighty appealing.
Green Bay Packers Over 7.5 wins (+120, DraftKings)
The Packers fell three victories below their 11-win total last season, and sportsbooks have plummeted their mark by 3.5 wins with Aaron Rodgers done with the franchise. Jordan Love will finally get the chance to showcase why the Packers drafted him late in the first round in 2020. He was considered a raw prospect when he came out of Utah State, and the world will find out if he’s cleaned up his biggest issues — accuracy, decision-making, and mechanics — while biding his time behind Rodgers. He’s attempted just 83 passes so far in his career, but he’ll be in a position to immediately succeed on a team that won 13 games in three straight seasons before last year’s eight-win campaign. The Packers have been their typical quiet selves in free agency, allowing the likes of WR Allen Lazard, DT Jarran Reed, and DT Dean Lowry to walk while adding no significant pieces. I’d love it if the Packers would use the compensation from their eventual Rodgers trade (and the available cap space) to acquire a player like DeAndre Hopkins to give Love a little more help at receiver. The Packers have appealing matchups against the NFC South and winnable extra games against the Rams, Steelers, and Giants. I’m more optimistic about the Lions and Packers compared to the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North, which makes Green Bay’s win total appealing at plus-price odds.
Chicago Bears Under 7.5 wins (+100, DraftKings)
The Bears have a lot of public momentum, with the franchise taking advantage of owning the top overall pick and the league’s most cap space heading into the 2023 off-season. GM Ryan Poles capitalized from a bevy of QB-needy teams in a QB-rich draft class by moving the top overall pick for a small bounty, which included a legitimate #1 WR in D.J. Moore. He then got to work improving his league-worst roster from last season by signing players like LB Tremaine Edmunds, OG Nate Davis, DT DeMarcus Walker, and LB T.J. Edwards. The Bears could potentially be this year’s Lions, which had a six-win improvement from 2021 to 2022, but asking Chicago for a five-win improvement is a bit steep for me. Justin Fields will have an improved receiving corps, but he has a long way to go to consistently win as a passer. They also drew tougher inter-conference matchups against the AFC West and the Browns. The NFC North is certainly there for the taking with Aaron Rodgers out of the mix, but I’m expecting incremental growth from Chicago with their window from playoff contention likely a year away. I’m going to wait on betting this under to see if a better number becomes available later in the summer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 wins (-105, Caesars)
The word tanking doesn’t get thrown around a whole lot in the NFL during the off-season, but the Buccaneers appear to be one team that wouldn’t mind losing a whole lot in 2023. It doesn’t hurt that this is one of the rare years when it makes a lot of sense to race to the cellar for the top overall pick in the 2024 draft. Tampa Bay is clearly watching every penny this off-season after going all out to win a Super Bowl with Tom Brady in 2020 and to reach the postseason the last two years. The Buccaneers saw firsthand what a top-flight quarterback can do to transform an organization, and they’re one team that looks actively prepared to bottom out for Caleb Williams if their season gets off to a rough start. Tampa Bay is going into the season with arguably the worst situation at quarterback with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield. They never even seemed to be serious players for any of the bigger-named quarterbacks who were available this off-season. The fact that they’ll play six games in the terrible NFC South and four more games against the nearly as awful AFC South is the one aspect that has me hesitant to bet their under for the time being. At the very least, I can already envision wagering on Tampa Bay finishing with the fewest wins if the odds are right. It’s a bet I’ve had some success with after pegging the Bears to finish with the fewest wins at +1100 odds in 2022.
Houston Texans Over 5.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)
The Texans have been in the process of rebuilding since they fired Bill O’Brien four games into the 2020 season. Houston is still a year away from competing for an AFC South title and a postseason berth, but its roster is finally in a spot to start to be competitive in the AFC’s weakest division. Houston shipped away a disgruntled Brandin Cooks, but this roster otherwise improved with DT Sheldon Rankins, OG Shaq Mason, Dalton Schultz, S Jimmie Ward, and Robert Woods added to the mix. The Texans are loaded with 12 picks in the draft, including a pair of picks inside the top 12 and five total selections inside the top 73. Houston will draft its franchise QB with the second overall pick (hopefully Bryce Young), and it’s one team that’s going to look significantly better after the draft. It won’t be difficult for Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud to be an upgrade over Davis Mills, who finished ahead of only Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett in QB rating at 78.8.
The Texans had two bridge head coaches Lovie Smith and David Culley the last two seasons, but they landed one of the hotter assistant coach prospects in DeMeco Ryans, who considers the gig a dream job after beginning his playing career with the franchise in 2006. Ryans has the chance to get his head-coaching career off on the right foot with a pair of winnable games against fellow AFC South weaklings in the Colts and Titans, who are both lined under eight wins. The Texans also have crossover games against the terrible NFC South, and their bonus NFC game contest comes against the Cardinals, whom sportsbooks pegged as the NFL’s worst team in late March. It takes a small leap of faith to back the Texans over their win total since they own just 10 total wins over the last three seasons, but I’m putting my money on the Texans to do it with an incrementally improving roster against one of the league’s easiest schedules.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Seattle Seahawks over 8.5 wins (-105, DraftKings). Risk 1.05 units to win one unit.
Houston Texans over 5.5 wins (-110, DraftKings). Risk 1.1 units to win one unit.
