The 2023 NFL Free Agency is mostly in the books, which means it’s time for the first edition of my 2023 NFL Power Rankings for the upcoming season. I’ve already written about the changing Super Bowl odds landscape and the initial NFL MVP odds, while futures are starting to trickle out with the 2023 season slowly coming into view.
My Power Rankings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams, which will be updated every week once the regular season starts. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These rankings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Rankings into account when I make my weekly against-the-spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
Example: My top-rated team, the Kansas City Chiefs (7), would be 10.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Arizona Cardinals (-3.5). Using a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.8 points in 2022), the Chiefs would be 12.5-point favorites over the Cardinals at home and 8.5-point favorites over the Cardinals on the road.
2023 NFL Power Rankings: Post Free Agency
| Rank | Team | Power Ranking | 2022 Record (ATS) | Current Super Bowl Odds | Final Regular Season Ranking |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 14-3 (5-11-1) | +600 | 8 |
| 2. | Cincinnati Bengals | 6.5 | 12-4 (12-3-1) | +900 | 7 |
| 3. | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 13-3 (8-7-1) | +900 | 8 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 14-3 (8-9) | +900 | 8 |
| 5. | San Francisco 49ers | 5.5 | 13-4 (11-6) | +900 | 7.5 |
| 6. | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 12-5 (9-7-1) | +1300 | 6 |
| 7. | Detroit Lions | 4.5 | 9-8 (12-5) | +2100 | 3.5 |
| 8. | Los Angeles Chargers | 4.5 | 10-7 (11-5-1) | +2100 | 5 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4 | 9-8 (8-8-1) | +2500 | 4 |
| 10. | Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | 9-8 (9-8) | +2100 | 0 |
| 11. | New York Jets | 3.5 | 7-10 (8-9) | +1600 | .5 |
| 12. | Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 9-8 (7-10) | +5500 | .5 |
| 13. | Baltimore Ravens | 2.5 | 10-7 (6-9-2) | +2800 | 2.5 |
| 14. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 9-8 (10-6-1) | +6000 | 1.5 |
| 15. | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 7-10 (8-9) | +2800 | 0 |
| 16. | New York Giants | 1.5 | 9-7-1 (13-4) | +4000 | 2 |
| 17. | New England Patriots | 1.5 | 8-9 (7-9-1) | +5500 | 1 |
| 18. | Green Bay Packers | 1 | 8-9 (8-9) | +4000 | 3 |
| 19. | Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 13-4 (7-9-1) | +4000 | 1 |
| 20. | New Orleans Saints | .5 | 7-10 (7-10) | +3500 | .5 |
| 21. | Denver Broncos | 0 | 5-12 (7-10) | +3500 | -3 |
| 22. | Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 5-12 (7-9-1) | +6000 | -3.5 |
| 23. | Las Vegas Raiders | -.5 | 6-11 (8-9) | +5500 | -.5 |
| 24. | Chicago Bears | -1 | 3-14 (5-11-1) | +6000 | -4.5 |
| 25. | Carolina Panthers | -1 | 7-10 (9-8) | +5500 | -.5 |
| 26. | Washington Commanders | -1.5 | 8-8-1 (8-8-1) | +6000 | 0 |
| 27. | Tennessee Titans | -1.5 | 7-10 (9-6-2) | +8500 | -1 |
| 28. | Houston Texans | -2 | 3-13-1 (8-8-1) | +18000 | -.5 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | -2 | 7-10 (9-8) | +6000 | -2.5 |
| 30. | Indianapolis Colts | -2.5 | 4-12-1 (6-11) | +10000 | -5 |
| 31. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3 | 8-9 (4-12-1) | +7500 | 1.5 |
| 32. | Arizona Cardinals | -3.5 | 4-13 (8-9) | +18000 | -4 |
Super Bowl Favorites
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Key Additions: OT Jawaan Taylor, EDGE Charles Omenihu
Key Losses: OT Orlando Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, OT Andrew Wylie, S Juan Thornhill, DT Khalen Saunders, WR Mecole Hardman, EDGE Frank Clark (FA)
2. Cincinnati Bengals
- Key Additions: OT Orlando Brown, S Nick Scott, TE Irv Smith
- Key Losses: S Jessie Bates, S Vonn Bell, RB Samaje Perine, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Eli Apple (FA)
3. Buffalo Bills
- Key Additions: OG Connor McGovern, RB Damien Harris, WR Deonte Harty
- Key Losses: LB Tremaine Edmunds, RB Devin Singletary, DT Jordan Phillips (FA), OG Rodger Saffold (FA)
4. Philadelphia Eagles
- Key Additions: S Terrell Edmunds, S Justin Evans, CB Greedy Williams, RB Rashaad Penny, QB Marcus Mariota
- Key Losses: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, OT Andre Dillard, OG Isaac Seumalo, LB T.J. Edwards, RB Miles Sanders, S Marcus Epps, LB Kyzir White, EDGE Fletcher Cox (FA)
5. San Francisco 49ers
- Key Additions: DT Javon Hargrave, QB Sam Darnold, C Jake Brendel, CB Isaiah Oliver, S Tashaun Gipson, EDGE Clelin Ferrell
- Key Losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, OT Mike McGlinchey, EDGE Charles Omenihu, EDGE Samson Ebukam, S Jimmie Ward, CB Emmanuel Moseley, LB Azeez Al-Shaair
Super Bowl Contenders
6. Dallas Cowboys
- Key Additions: CB Stephon Gilmore, WR Brandin Cooks
- Key Losses: OG Connor McGovern, TE Dalton Schultz, CB Anthony Brown (FA), RB Ezekiel Elliott (FA)
7. Detroit Lions
- Key Additions: CB Cam Sutton, CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, RB David Montgomery, LB Emmanuel Moseley, OG Graham Glasgow
- Key Losses: WR D.J. Chark, RB Jamaal Williams, CB Mike Hughes, DT Michael Brockers (FA)
8. Los Angeles Chargers
- Key Additions: LB Eric Kendricks
- Key Losses: LB Drue Tanquill, OT Matt Feiler (FA), EDGE Kyle Van Noy (FA)
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Key Additions: WR Calvin Ridley
- Key Losses: OT Jawaan Taylor, EDGE Arden Key, CB Shaq Griffin (FA), WR Marvin Jones (FA), EDGE Dawuane Smoot (FA)
10. New York Jets
- Key Additions: QB Aaron Rodgers (pending), WR Allen Lazard, S Chuck Clark, WR Mecole Hardman
- Key Losses: DT Sheldon Rakins, WR Elijah Moore, DT Nathan Shepherd, OG Nate Herbig, QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, OT George Fant (FA), C Connor McGovern (FA)
11. Miami Dolphins
- Key Additions: CB Jalen Ramsey, LB David Long, QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios
- Key Losses: TE Mike Gesicki, LB Elandon Roberts, S Eric Rowe (FA), QB Teddy Bridgewater (FA), EDGE Melvin Ingram (FA)
In the Playoff Hunt
12. Seattle Seahawks
- Key Additions: DT Dre’Mont Jones, LB Bobby Wagner, S Julian Love, DT Jarran Reed, LB Devin Bush
- Key Losses: LB Cody Barton, RB Rashaad Penny, EDGE Shelby Harris (FA), OG Gabe Jackson (FA), DT Quinton Jefferson (FA), DT Al Woods (FA)
13. Baltimore Ravens
- Key Additions: WR Nelson Agholor
- Key Losses: OG Ben Powers, TE Josh Oliver, S Chuck Clark
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Key Additions: OG Isaac Seumalo, CB Patrick Peterson, LB Cole Holcomb, OG Nate Herbig, LB Elandon Roberts
- Key Losses: CB Cam Sutton, S Terrell Edmunds, LB Myles Jack (FA), DT Chris Wormley (FA)
15. Cleveland Browns
- Key Additions: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, S Juan Thornhill, EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, WR Elijah Moore
- Key Losses: QB Jacoby Brissett, DT Taven Bryan, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (FA), RB Kareem Hunt (FA), LB Anthony Walker (FA), LB Deion Jones (FA)
16. New York Giants
- Key Additions: TE Darren Waller, LB Bobby Okereke, WR Parris Campbell, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches
- Key Losses: S Julian Love, C Nick Gates,
Playoff Sleepers
17. New England Patriots
- Key Additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Riley Reiff, OT Calvin Anderson, RB James Robinson
- Key Losses: WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Jonnu Smith, WR Nelson Agholor, RB Damien Harris, OT Isaiah Wynn (FA)
18. Green Bay Packers
- Key Additions: None of note.
- Key Losses: QB Aaron Rodgers (pending), WR Allen Lazard, DT Jarran Reed, DT Dean Lowry, TE Robert Tonyan, S Adrian Amos (FA), TE Marcedes Lewis (FA), WR Randall Cobb (FA)
19. Minnesota Vikings
- Key Additions: DT Marcus Davenport, CB Byron Murphy, TE Josh Oliver, DT Dean Lowry,
- Key Losses: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, WR Adam Thielen, CB Patrick Peterson, LB Eric Kendricks, TE Irv Smith
20. New Orleans Saints
- Key Additions: QB Derek Carr, DT Nathan Shepherd, DT Khalen Saunders, RB Jamaal Williams
- Key Losses: DT Marcus Davenport, DT David Onyemata, LB Kaden Elliss, DT Shy Tuttle, QB Andy Dalton, WR Deonte Harty, WR Jarvis Landry (FA), CB P.J. Williams (FA)
21. Denver Broncos
- Key Additions: OT Mike McGlinchey, DT Zach Allen, OG Ben Powers, LB Alex Singleton, QB Jarrett Stidham, RB Samaje Perine,
- Key Losses: DT Dre’Mont Jones, OT Calvin Anderson, OG Graham Glasgow, CB Ronald Darby (FA), OG Dalton Risner (FA), S Kareem Jackson (FA)
22. Los Angeles Rams
- Key Additions: TE Hunter Long
- Key Losses: CB Jalen Ramsey, S Nick Scott, QB Baker Mayfield, DT Greg Gaines, EDGE Leonard Floyd (FA), DT A’Shawn Robinson (FA), CB Troy HIll (FA)
23. Las Vegas Raiders
- Key Additions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jakobi Meyers, S Marcus Epps, LB Robert Spillane, CB Brandon Facyson, TE Austin Hooper
- Key Losses: QB Derek Carr, TE Darren Waller, QB Jarrett Stidham, DT Andrew Billings, WR Mack Hollins, EDGE Clelin Ferrell, TE Foster Moreau (FA), CB Anthony Averett (FA)
24. Chicago Bears
- Key Additions: WR D.J. Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds, OG Nate Davis, DT DeMarcus Walker, LB T.J. Edwards, DT Andrew Billings, TE Robert Tonyan, RB D’Onta Foreman
- Key Losses: RB David Montgomery, OT Riley Reiff, WR Byron Pringle (FA), EDGE Al-Quadin Muhammad (FA)
25. Carolina Panthers
- Key Additions: WR Adam Thielen, WR D. J. Chark, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, DT Shy Tuttle, RB Miles Sanders, QB Andy Dalton,
- Key Losses: WR D.J. Moore, QB Sam Darnold, LB Cory Littleton, RB D’Onta Foreman, DT Matt Ioannidis (FA), OT Cameron Erving (FA), OG Pat Elfein (FA)
Crumble for Caleb Williams
26. Washington Commanders
- Key Additions: OT Andrew Wylie, QB Jacoby Brissett, C Nick Gates, LB Cody Barton
- Key Losses: QB Taylor Heinicke, LB Cole Holcomb, QB Carson Wentz (FA), RB J.D. McKissic (FA), OG Trai Turner (FA)
27. Tennessee Titans
- Key Additions: OT Andre Dillard, EDGE Arden Key, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, OG Daniel Brunskill
- Key Losses: OG Nate Davis, WR Robert Woods, DT DeMarcus Walker, LB David Long, TE Austin Hooper, EDGE Bud Dupree (FA), OT Taylor Lewan (FA), LB Zach Cunningham (FA), C Ben Jones (FA)
28. Houston Texans
- Key Additions: DT Sheldon Rankins, OG Shaq Mason, WR Robert Woods, S Jimmie Ward, TE Dalton Schultz, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Devin Singletary, WR Noah Brown, LB Cory Littleton
- Key Losses: WR Brandin Cooks, EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, C Justin Britt (FA), OG A.J. Cann (FA), EDGE Mario Addison (FA)
29. Atlanta Falcons
- Key Additions: S Jessie Bates, DT David Onyemata, TE Jonnu Smith, LB Kaden Elliss, QB Taylor Heinicke, CB Mike Hughes, WR Mack Hollins
- Key Losses: CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Marcus Mariota
30. Indianapolis Colts
- Key Additions: EDGE Samson Ebukam, DT Taven Bryan, QB Gardner Minshew
- Key Losses: CB Stephon Gilmore, LB Bobby Okereke, WR Parris Campbell, CB Brandon Facyson, QB Matt Ryan (FA), EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (FA)
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Key Additions: QB Baker Mayfield, DT Greg Gaines
- Key Losses: QB Tom Brady, OT Donovan Smith, DT Akiem Hicks, RB Leonard Fournette, OG Shaq Mason, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, S Mike Edwards, WR Julio Jones, TE Cam Brate, DT William Gholston
32. Arizona Cardinals
- Key Additions: LB Kyzir White
- Key Losses: DL J.J. Watt, DT Zach Allen, CB Byron Murphy, OG Justin Pugh (FA), EDGE Markus Golden (FA)
