The NFL season is quickly approaching, and the first step to winning Super Bowl 58 is to reach the postseason. The current 2023 NFL Playoff Odds show that the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are the most likely team to qualify for the AFC postseason at -500 and the San Francisco 49ers are their NFC counterparts at -455 to reach the playoffs. On the other end of the spectrum, the Houston Texans at +475 and Arizona Cardinals at +980 are the least likely teams to make the playoffs in their respective conferences.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (+450) and New York Giants (+230) reached the postseason at the longest odds in 2022. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers (+333) and Los Angeles Rams (+200) had the biggest payouts if you were bold enough to bet them to miss the playoffs. Let’s go division by division to check out the 2023 NFL Playoff Odds for all 32 teams.
Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley previously broke down the initial Super Bowl LVIII Odds in February and the 2023 NFL Season Win Totals in late March.
2023 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS
Teams are sorted by “Shortest Odds” to reach the Playoffs (Make), but it’s best to bet teams to make or miss the playoffs at their “Longest Odds” to maximize your return.
AFC EAST
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| Buffalo Bills | -240, DraftKings/+200, BetMGM | -250, BetMGM/+194, FanDuel |
| New York Jets | -130, DraftKings/+125, Caesars | -149, Caesars/+110, DraftKings |
| Miami Dolphins | -105, FanDuel/-105, Caesars | -115, Caesars/-115, FanDuel |
| New England Patriots | +250, FanDuel/-300, BetMGM | +240, BetMGM/-325, FanDuel |
The Buffalo Bills are still the class of the AFC East at -250 odds, but they’re set to face more competition in the division, with their “make” odds plummeting from -650 last preseason. In fact, the AFC East is the only division with three teams listed at -115 or shorter to reach the postseason. The New York Jets went from +650 to make the playoffs last season to -149 in 2023 after trading for Aaron Rodgers, which means they have 59.8% implied odds of breaking their NFL-work 12-season postseason drought. The Miami Dolphins slipped to third in the playoff odds in the AFC East at -115, while the New England Patriots are a distant fourth with the fourth-longest odds in the conference at +240.
AFC NORTH
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -285, DraftKings/+280, BetMGM | -375, BetMGM/+235, FanDuel |
| Baltimore Ravens | -150, BetMGM/+140, DraftKings | -165, DraftKings/+125, BetMGM |
| Cleveland Browns | +120, DraftKings/-120, Caesars | +100, Caesars/-140, DraftKings |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +140, Caesars/-150, BetMGM | +125, BetMGM/-164, Caesars |
The Cincinnati Bengals have the AFC’s second-best odds (-375) to qualify for the postseason despite playing in the NFL’s most competitive division from top to bottom based on playoff odds. The Baltimore Ravens are favored (-165) to reach the postseason for the fifth time in Lamar Jackson’s six seasons with the franchise. The Cleveland Browns are a coin flip (+100) to reach the postseason for just the second time in the last 21 years. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the longest shots in the division to reach the postseason at +125 odds, which implies they have a solid 44.4% chance of being one of the AFC’s final seven teams.
AFC SOUTH
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -190, BetMGM/+175, Caesars | -208, Caesars/+155, BetMGM |
| Tennessee Titans | +250, Caesars/-250, DraftKings | +210, DraftKings/-323, Caesars |
| Indianapolis Colts | +360, DraftKings/-450, BetMGM | +350, Caesars/-500, FanDuel |
| Houston Texans | +650, Caesars/-700, DraftKings | +475, DraftKings/-1000, Caesars |
The Jacksonville Jaguars reached the postseason at the longest odds (+450) last season, and they now own 67.5% implied odds of making it back-to-back appearances at -208. It doesn’t hurt that the Jags are playing in the NFL’s least competitive division with the Tennessee Titans (+210), Indianapolis Colts (+350), and Houston Texans (+475) owning three of the eight-worst odds to reach the postseason.
AFC WEST
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -450, DraftKings/+375, BetMGM | -500, FanDuel/+350, Caesars |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -115, FanDuel/+100, DraftKings | -120, DraftKings/-105, FanDuel |
| Denver Broncos | +200, BetMGM/-208, Caesars | +175, Caesars/-250, BetMGM |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +400, BetMGM/-450, DraftKings | +360, DraftKings/-550, FanDuel |
The Kansas City Chiefs have by far the NFL’s longest playoff streak with eight consecutive postseason trips, and they own the NFL’s best odds to extend their run by another year at -500. The Los Angeles Chargers finally broke through to the postseason in Justin Herbert’s third season, but they have just 54.5% implied odds of doing it again with -120 odds. The Denver Broncos are expected to extend the NFL’s second-worst playoff drought to eight seasons with +175 odds to reach the postseason. Josh McDaniels’ tenure with the Las Vegas Raiders may not last long based on their second-worst AFC odds to reach the postseason at +360.
NFC EAST
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -400, FanDuel/+340, DraftKings | -435, Caesars/+300, FanDuel |
| Dallas Cowboys | -200, BetMGM/+185, DraftKings | -225, FanDuel/+165, BetMGM |
| New York Giants | +184, FanDuel/-190, DraftKings | +160, DraftKings/-230, FanDuel |
| Washington Commanders | +310, FanDuel/-345, Caesars | +280, Caesars/-420, FanDuel |
The Philadelphia Eagles own the NFC’s second-best odds to reach the postseason at -435, which would be the third consecutive season Jalen Hurts has led Philly to the playoffs since becoming the starter. The Dallas Cowboys have also strung together back-to-back postseason appearances, and they possess the NFC’s third-best playoff odds (-225) despite being in the same division as the Eagles. The New York Giants qualified for postseason play at longshot odds (+230) last season, and sportsbooks still aren’t bought into Brian Daboll’s crew with +160 odds in 2023. The Washington Commanders will likely need to finish with a winning record for the first time since Kirk Cousins quarterbacked the team in 2016 to reach the postseason at +280 odds.
NFC NORTH
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| Detroit Lions | -165, DraftKings/+145, BetMGM | -178, FanDuel/+140, Caesars |
| Minnesota Vikings | +120, Caesars/-120, DraftKings | +100, DraftKings/-141, Caesars |
| Green Bay Packers | +180, DraftKings/-200, BetMGM | +160, FanDuel/-210, DraftKings |
| Chicago Bears | +175 Caesars/-190, DraftKings | +160, DraftKings/-220, FanDuel |
The Detroit Lions own the best odds to make the playoffs in the NFC North at -178, which would end their NFC-worst six-year postseason drought. The Minnesota Vikings are a coin toss to return to the postseason at +100 odds even after racking an improbable 13 wins in 2022. Sportsbooks are baking in major regression after the Vikings racked up a perfect 11-0 record in one-possession games. The Green Bay Packers are underdogs to reach the postseason (+160) for the first time since Aaron Rodgers’ second season at quarterback in 2009. The Chicago Bears will attempt to reach the postseason a season after finishing with the NFL’s worst record, and they’re not extreme longshots at +160 odds.
NFC SOUTH
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| New Orleans Saints | -154, FanDuel/+155, DraftKings | -180, DraftKings/+126, FanDuel |
| Atlanta Falcons | +120, BetMGM/-125, DraftKings | +105, DraftKings/-145, BetMGM |
| Carolina Panthers | +210, DraftKings/-200, BetMGM | +160, FanDuel/-250, DraftKings |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +400, Caesars/-450, BetMGM | +350, BetMGM/-500, Caesars |
The New Orleans Saints own staggering -180 odds to make the playoffs despite being a middle-of-the-pack NFL team. They luckily play in the league’s second-worst division with a schedule that’s projected to be the NFL’s easiest based on 2023 season win totals. The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers have both failed to reach the postseason in five consecutive seasons, which makes them two of the five teams that haven’t made the playoffs in 5+ years. Both teams are expected to miss the postseason for a sixth consecutive season with odds of +105 and +160, respectively. Meanwhile, the markets aren’t expecting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to extend the NFL’s third-longest playoff streak to a fourth season with the second-longest odds (+350) to reach the postseason in the NFC.
NFC WEST
| Team | Longest Odds (Make/Miss) | Shortest Odds (Make/Miss) |
| San Francisco 49ers | -425, DraftKings/+375, BetMGM | -455, Caesars/+310 FanDuel |
| Seattle Seahawks | -120, BetMGM/+105, Caesars | -125, Caesars/+100, BetMGM |
| Los Angeles Rams | +310, BetMGM/-345, Caesars | +270, Caesars/-400, BetMGM |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1100, DraftKings/-2000, BetMGM | +980, BetMGM/-2200, FanDuel |
The San Francisco 49ers own the NFC’s best odds to reach the postseason at -455 despite a murky quarterback situation heading into 2023. The Seattle Seahawks are in search of their 11th postseason berth in Pete Carroll’s 14th season, and they’re favored to do it (-125) in back-to-back campaigns with Geno Smith at quarterback. The Los Angeles Rams are longshots to reach the playoffs (+270) in what is shaping up to be a make-or-break season for the remaining central figures from their 2021 Super Bowl run. The Arizona Cardinals possess the longest odds (+980) to reach the postseason, which wasn’t helped by the team releasing DeAndre Hopkins in late May.
Tom Brolley’s NFL Playoff Best Bets
- Green Bay Packers to make the Playoffs: YES (+200, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win two units. Placed May 26.
