The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, and holy cow, what a doozy. While there are still six full rounds of drafting to be done, the break between Day 1 and Day 2 is a perfect opportunity to see what teams hit it out of the park… and what teams struck out.
What sets my analysis apart is my proprietary numeric scoring system, which incorporates a weighted film/traits score, production score, athleticism score, and intangibles score to paint a comprehensive picture of each prospect's potential.
And for analyzing picks after the fact, I’ve developed a model with Chris Wecht that incorporates my player evaluations to identify the best and worst value picks. The model carefully considers positional value as well as any capital lost/gained involving trades.
Using the Whitefield/Wecht Pick Value Model, let's take a look at the best and worst picks of round 1.
Don’t forget to check out my 2023 Prospect Guide. All you need to access it is a free Fantasy Points login which you can create by clicking here. I will still be adding profiles after the 2023 NFL Draft.
Additionally, be sure to check out our live draft coverage tonight on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. We will be back at 6:30 PM Eastern, breaking down every single pick of Day 2.
Best First-Round Values of the 2023 NFL Draft
The interesting theme here with all the “best picks” is good teams making good decisions. Every one of the teams featured here have consistency in the front office and routinely find ways to exploit market edges.
Pick #4, Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida) Big Board #2, QB1
The only perfect value score of the night (100th percentile pick). Richardson was my top QB in the Draft, and not only did the Colts get him at #4 overall, but they also got him as the third QB off the board. Our model absolutely loves QBs because of the value of the position.
Richardson brings an elite playmaking skill set to the table. He does most of the quarterback-centric things very well. He has incredible pocket awareness, he is good pre- and post-snap, he throws with timing and anticipation, and he has ridiculous arm talent. A lot has been made about Richardson’s inconsistent accuracy — and rightfully so — but I think the fix for Richardson is more easily attainable than let on by most. Remember, new coach Shane Steichen helped Jalen Hurts develop into one of the best QBs in the league. He’s got to be over the moon about getting to work with Richardson.
Pick #9, Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Carter (IDL, Georgia) Big Board #1, IDL1
Without considering the trade-up from #9 to #10, this would have been a 100th-percentile pick. When you factor in the 4th rounder the Eagles gave up to ensure they got Carter, it puts it in the 99th percentile range. Still, an absolutely fantastic pick for Howie Roseman.
Carter was my top-ranked player in the class, and the Eagles got him all the way down at #9. If there is any team with the proper ecosystem to mitigate some of Carter’s character concerns, it's probably the Eagles. The culture there is established and phenomenal, they have a wealth of veteran leaders in the locker room, and they are surrounding Carter with his college teammates. I love this.
In Carter, the Eagles are getting an absolute game-wrecker on the inside. And, coincidentally, my pre-Draft comp for Carter? His new teammate Fletcher Cox.
Pick #28, Cincinnati Bengals: Myles Murphy (EDGE, Clemson) Big Board #15, EDGE3
This is another 99th-percentile selection from a value standpoint. The Bengals took my 15th-ranked player at 28th overall, and it’s someone who plays a premium position.
Murphy is a bet-on-the-traits type of guy. He has all the stuff you look for in an elite pass-rusher — size, length, power, athleticism — and really just needs to put it all together. Specifically, he needs to work on his consistency, especially as an edge setter in the run game. He can get a little lackadaisical with his hands at the point of attack, and sometimes seems to rush the passer without a plan. Murphy’s physical tools are elite, however, and he gets the chance to learn from two studs, Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard.
Pick #25, Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah) Big Board #13, TE1
Buffalo made a 98.7-percentile pick from a value standpoint. Kincaid is an elite pass-catching prospect, and getting him all the way down at 25 was a home run for Buffalo per our model.
This is also an incredible landing spot for Kincaid, who steps into a pass-heavy offense as a tight end whose entire skill set is as a receiver. His detailed, complex route-running ability and ball skills give Josh Allen another high-end target for an offense that really needed to add a significant piece.
Pick #20, Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) Big Board #12, WR1
This was a 97th-percentile selection in our model. JSN was the best WR available on my board, and we also give WRs a positional value bump.
JSN slides into an offense rich in skill player talent. It seems likely the Seahawks will develop him to be the heir apparent Tyler Lockett. As it stands now, JSN and Lockett both possess unique, versatile skill sets that allow the Seahawks to do a multitude of things on offense with formations and alignments. I love the idea of having JSN just eating underneath while Lockett and DK Metcalf go to work in the intermediate and deep parts of the field for Geno Smith.
Worst First-Round Values of the 2023 NFL Draft
For most of the picks our model considered “bad,” teams reached for a player that I didn’t see as first-round worthy. While this, admittedly, isn’t the most sound way to evaluate a pick right now, there were really only two massive blunders as far as positional value goes, so scrutinizing the reaches is basically all we have to work with.
So I have to throw out an obvious caveat: I am hesitant to call some of these outright “bad picks,” as certain players inevitably fit certain teams better than others. My big board is generic and obviously doesn’t consider specific team fits.
Pick #18, Detroit Lions: Jack Campbell (LB, Iowa) Big Board #58, LB1
Campbell was the worst pick of the first round according to our model, and by a good bit, scoring as just a 70th percentile selection. The problem here is two-fold. One, based on my evaluation of Campbell as a prospect, the Lions reached for him by a good bit. Two, they reached for a player at a non-premium position.
In Campbell, the Lions are getting a fine player with a relatively safe floor considering his intangibles as a leader and mental-processing skills. The issue for me, and why I scored him as a mid-to-late round-2 player, is I don’t think he will ever affect the pass game enough to bring truly elite value to the LB position. Let's be honest, how many off-ball linebackers in the league right now do this? Maybe four: Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, and Matt Milano. I did not evaluate Campbell as that type of pass defender.
Pick #27, Jacksonville Jaguars: Anton Harrison (OT, Oklahoma) Big Board #46, OT6
This pick scores as just a 79th-percentile selection and reeks of both a reach from a talent standpoint and from a need standpoint. I realize current LT Cam Robinson is facing a suspension, and they even have a way to move on from him after this year but ultimately, it just feels like the Jags forced the pick.
Mostly, Harrison just didn’t score anywhere close to a first-round guy for me. He’s not really a traits-heavy guy and has some clear deficiencies with his technique. His developmental upside seems pretty limited, and I worry about the amount of runway he will need to get to a good spot as a plus starter.
Pick #16, Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State) Big Board #38, CB6
Here’s where my caveat above really needs to be considered. If I were stacking up a specific draft board for the Commanders, Forbes would rank much higher than 38th overall, as his skill set is tailor-made for their defense. In fact, my working style-comp for Forbes was former Panthers CB Josh Norman, whom Ron Rivera helped develop into a Pro Bowler.
That said, this pick scored as just an 80th-percentile selection, and I don’t love the fact that Forbes will need to be a massive outlier if he hits, as he will be the smallest CB in the league the moment he steps onto the field (166 pounds!).
