In this new weekly column, I’ll be picking out five of the most important stats that I think fantasy players NEED to know.
I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.
All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite (FREE THIS WEEK!), and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.
1. Josh Palmer ranks 13th in YPRR since the Mike Williams injury, ahead of Keenan Allen, who ranks 40th
I didn’t want to believe this as someone who has thought Palmer was an average-at-best WR in the NFL, but after my colleague and the smartest football mind I know, Brett Whitefield, kept telling me Palmer looked great, I had to investigate.
Despite the high YPRR, Palmer isn’t even being heavily targeted. He ranks 25th in overall target share, and 37th in 1st Read Target Share. I want the Quentin Johnston breakout to happen as much as everyone else, but Palmer is showing the Chargers he deserves more targets.
It is a small sample size, with only 25 routes, but he has the second-highest YPRR vs. man coverage in the NFL at 5.4 YPRR
2. Lamar Jackson has recorded a time to throw greater than 2.7 seconds twice this season, and they have resulted in the 2nd and 4th highest FP/DB weeks for a QB this season
The Lions gave Jackson, on average, 2.9 seconds to throw the football this week, and he took advantage of it. Lamar has looked like a much-improved passer this season — he only looks to run when he has to, which is resulting in more explosive passing plays.
Look for Lamar to have big explosive fantasy weeks when he gets defenses that allow a long time to throw. Of his next five matchups, the Bengals and Chargers rank 28th and 30th, and the Cardinals and Seahawks rank 4th and 7th. The other matchup is with the Browns, who rank 16th.
3. Tyson Bagent had a 2.4 average depth of target this season. That is the lowest mark for a QB this season.
The Bears actually won this week and put up 30 points on the Raiders with their backup QB. However, we should be worried about the Bears receiving options and the offense as a whole moving forward. We should not expect the Bears to have a ton of success when the QB is not pushing the ball down the field, which is going to make it hard for all their skill players to score fantasy points.
D.J. Moore posted his lowest aDOT of the season at 4.1, but posted his second-highest XFP/RR at 0.59. His XFP was still good due to the targets he was seeing near the red zone. If you remove plays that took place within 25 yards of the end zone, Moore’s XFP/RR falls to 0.44, which would be his 3rd-lowest mark of the season.
4. If you remove the fourth quarter when Jordan Addison only ran 3 routes, he had a 36.4% 1st-Read Target Share.
That 36.4% 1st read target share would rank as the 3rd-highest 1st-read target share for a Vikings’ player this season. He was dropped right into the Justin Jefferson role and should be a borderline WR1 moving forward as long as Jefferson is out.
Before this week, he owned more of the top 5 passer rating when targeted weeks than Jefferson, and now he is seeing Jefferson's volume.
5. Jonathan Taylor has 3.56 yards after contact per attempt in Week 7. That is the best mark for a Colts RB this season.
It seems like we may be quickly approaching Taylor taking over the Colts' backfield. In Week 7, he was a better runner than Zack Moss. Taylor had 3.56 YACO/ATT, 0.61 YBCO/ATT, and only a 50% stuff rate. Moss had 3.06 YACO/ATT, 0.11 YBCO/ATT, and a 56% stuff rate.
Moss was not bad by any means, but we can see Taylor is getting into football playing shape. Not only that, while Moss slightly edged out Taylor in snap percentage, Taylor tied or beat Moss in carry share, target share, and XFP share, which has not happened until this week.
