In this new weekly column, I’ll pick out five of the most important stats I think fantasy players NEED to know.
I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.
All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.
1. Over the last five weeks Jordan Love ranks 4th in Passer Rating, 3rd in CPOE, and 8th in average depth of target.
Love has made massive strides over the last few weeks and led the Packers to some very big wins.
Before this stretch, he ranked 29th in passer rating, and 32nd in completion percentage over expectation.
A big reason for the change has been Love’s effectiveness versus pressure. He has a 113.8 passer rating vs. pressure over the past five weeks compared to a passer rating of 54 earlier this season.
That is with him being pressured more over this stretch than the first half of the season. He has been pressured on 36% of dropbacks over the last five weeks compared to 22% in the previous eight weeks.
2. In one game without Tank Dell, Nico Collins posted season highs in target share, 1st read target share, and end zone targets.
We may be in store for some massive Collins weeks for the Texans moving forward with Dell ruled out for the rest of the season.
Collins put up 34.1 fantasy points this week, and he dropped an end-zone target, so it could have been even higher. His target share and 1st read share nearly doubled this week; both are in the top 10 among all receiver single-week numbers.
Even if we assume those usage numbers drop a bit to more sustainable levels, they still will be near other elite receivers such as Keenan Allen (31% target share, 41% 1st read share), and Davante Adams (29% target share, 39% 1st read share).
3. Ja’Marr Chase’s average depth of target has fallen to 6.4 from 9.4 without Joe Burrow, but his target share and air yard share have increased.
Chase is going to seemingly be just fine with Jake Browning at quarterback for the rest of the season. While his aDOT has dropped, possibly capping his elite upside, he is making up for it with Browning feeding him.
His target share has not increased greatly over the past two weeks, but his air yard share has gone from 39% to 47%. Chase is talented enough to break a short throw into a big play, and the team seems to know that.
Similar to earlier this season when Burrow was playing banged up, the Bengals switched Chase’s role to more of a high target volume quick game under Browning. The 40-point fantasy weeks may not be there, but Chase can still reach 20+ points any given week.
4. Austin Ekeler has a 5.7% explosive play rate in 2023 compared to 3.5% in 2022
When watching Ekeler play this season, he definitely looks sluggish compared to last season. However, the data doesn’t quite back that up.
His explosive play rate numbers are actually better this season than last season, and his other efficiency numbers have not dropped much.
Missed tackles forced per touch fell from 0.21 last season to 0.12 this season.
Yards after contact per touch fell from 2.92 last season to 2.75 this season.
The problem with Ekeler is probably not that he is playing significantly worse. It is likely that he was overly efficient last season and is regressing to the mean.
Last season he had 19.9 expected fantasy points per game and scored 22.1 actual fantasy points per game. This season he is at 17.8 expected fantasy points per game and has 14.7 actual fantasy points per game.
The variance could easily swing back and he could actually hit his 18 expected fantasy points per game after falling in the endzone a few times to close out the season.
5. Zack Moss had eight touches inside the 10 this week, tying the season-high total for all RBs in a single week.
Many people may be disappointed with Moss’s performance this week, given what we saw from him earlier this season when Jonathan Taylor was out. And given the lack of fantasy scoring, that’s justified.
However, Moss is going to have some big weeks to close out the season. The only other RB to have eight touches inside the 10 this season was David Montgomery in Week 4, and he scored 3 touchdowns.
Moss had an expected fantasy points of 10.9 from just those inside the 10 touches and he only scored 2.6 fantasy points. The only RB to do something similar was in Week 5 when Joe Mixon had seven inside the 10 touches go for zero touchdowns, and we all know Mixon has had scoring issues in the past.
Moss is still a surefire RB1 as long as Taylor is out.
