In this new weekly column, I’ll be picking out five of the most important stats that I think fantasy players NEED to know.
I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.
All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.
1. Trey McBride has a 34.5% air yard share, 31.5% target share, and 3.02 YPRR over the past three weeks
It is amazing it took a Zach Ertz injury to unleash McBride in the Cardinals offense. He is the only pass catcher on the Cardinals who has a positive yards per target over expectation since taking over as the starter.
His three-week air yard share, target share, and YPRR would rank 1st, 1st, and 1st among all TEs over the entire season.
Travis Kelce had one of the greatest seasons for a tight end ever last season, and he had a 24.9% air yard share, 22.6% target share, and 2.39 YPRR.
McBride likely will regress to a more sustainable volume and efficiency, but that would just bring him down to Kelce levels.
2. Jonathan Taylor had 89% of the snaps, 71% of the routes, and 89% of the carries in Week 10.
This was only a matter of time, given the contract the Colts gave Taylor a few weeks ago. Zack Moss played only eight snaps with one carry and zero targets on two routes run in Week 10.
Taylor's 89% carry share would be the 4th highest for any RB in a single week this season, and his snap share would rank the 11th highest.
Taylor was not super efficient with that volume, only scoring 14.5 PPR fantasy points in Week 10, but expect big games ahead with that kind of usage
3. 12 WRs have a 1st-Read Target Share greater than or equal to 35% in 2023. There were only 3 in 2021 and 4 in 2022
There has been a lot of talk this season about the return of WR1 dominance in offenses across the league, and the data seems to back that up.
In previous seasons the names of WRs hitting that 35% mark include obvious names like Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, D.J. Moore, and Tyreek Hill.
Now here is the list of players currently crossing that mark this season.
Players like Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all being fed targets intentionally by their teams regardless if they have a strong WR2 or not.
Other receivers who are just short of 35% but would have been included at different times of the season include Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Adam Thielen. We need to raise our expectations of the types of ceilings these elite WRs can reach and accept there are now more of them than there ever have been in some time.
4. Kyler Murray posted his highest true 1st Read Throw Rate (86.2%) with designed throws removed since 2021.
This week was our first week to see not only how Kyler looks coming off his ACL tear 11 months ago, but also how he would look in a non-Kliff Kingsbury offense. The results were promising.
Not only did Kyler look comfortable using his legs, but he also was willing to throw to the 1st read of the play more than he ever had before.
A problem with Kyler in the past was he would start scrambling around in the backfield too quickly and then try and create a play out of nothing. Throwing on his first read shows he was more willing to play within the structure of the offense.
The fantasy point results weren’t anything crazy, but it could be a good sign of things to come, and a great sign for his primary receivers like Marquise Brown and Trey McBride, who are often the first read on the play.
5. DK Metcalf and DeAndre Hopkins have seen a league-leading 5 and 6 targets, respectively, inside the red zone that were uncatchable due to QB accuracy
Metcalf and Hopkins are both big TD regression candidates for the back half of the season. They both have seen the most unrealized fantasy points inside the red zone due to their QB just missing on their throws.
Geno Smith and Will Levis have both struggled with their accuracy this season (particularly Levis, who ranks 39th of 41 QBs in catchable throw rate), but both still throw a catchable ball more than 65% of the time.
For comparison, every Seahawks receiver has seen a catchable target rate above 65% inside the red zone. Metcalf is down at 55%
Every Titans player is at 100% (min two targets) except Hopkins, who is at 33%.
